The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) jointly hosted the International Conference on Climate Change and Food Security (ICCCFS) November 6-8, 2011 in Beijing, China. This conference provided a forum for leading international scientists and young researchers to present their latest research findings, exchange their research ideas, and share their experiences in the field of climate change and food security. The event included technical sessions, poster sessions, and social events. The conference results and recommendations were presented at the global climate talks in Durban, South Africa during an official side event on December 1.

1. Ren Xiaona & Sun DongSheng
Presented by：Ren Xiaona
Zhaorenxiaona@126.com
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2. ☞ Outline of the Presentation
1
Introduction
2 The basic condition of China’s
grain trade
3
The Gravity Model of Grain Trade
4
Results and Analysis
5
Conclusion
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3. Introduction
Definition
Climate change-------The Article 1 of "Framework Convention
on Climate Change”
The composition of Earth's atmosphere altered because of
directly or indirectly human activity, other than natural climate
variability observed in similar period.
Carbon dioxide emissions "Carbon hood"
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4. Introduction
Definition
The grain------ definition by FAO
Mainly refers to wheat, coarse food grain and rice three
categories.
Grain, wheat, rice and maize production account for more than
two-thirds of total grain output.
Grain mentioned in this article mainly refers to wheat, rice and maize.
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5. Introduction
Background
Climate change and its impacts and research lead to more
and more countries and people's attention.
Less study on social economy and trade
grain trade has played an important role at different times.
So, it is necessary and meaningful to study the climate
change impact on China’s grain trade.
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6. The basic condition of China’s
grain trade
Grain trade scale
Mainly
import-
oriented.
1961-2008 China's grain imports and exports
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7. The basic condition of China’s
grain trade
Grain trade structure
China’s grain imports were wheat and maize, rice
self-sufficiency.
Before 2010, China is a net exporter of maize. In 2010,
China became a net importer of maize at the first time,
import and maize deficit reached 1.445 million tons.
60.00% 53.89%
50.00% 46.58% Grain imports
43.05%
40.00% account for the total
30.00% import volume from
20.00% the United States,
10.00% Argentina and Brazil.
0.00%
2006
1 2007
2 2008
3
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8. The basic condition of China’s
grain trade
Grain trade structure
China's exports are mainly wheat and maize, a
small amount of rice. mainly export to South Korea,
Indonesia and Japan.
Maize was China's main grain export variety before
export 2010. From 2003 to 2009, maize total export
accounts for 99.3% of maize trade volume.
But in 2010, maize imports reached 1,572,100 tons,
exports only 127,200 tons, and Imports up to 92.5%.
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9. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade
model construction
β
Model : Tij = β 0 (GDPi GDPj ) / Dij μ 0
National National Correlation Error
访谈结果与析 Economic
Trade
The distance
parameter
of Two
Volume al Scale
Countries’
Capital
Tij GDP Dij β0 μ0
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10. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade
Modified Gravity Model
Model of lnTi = α0 +α1 lnGDP+α2 lnGDP +α3 ln POP +α4 lnGY +α5 lnTEMj +
i j j i
Import ： lnCO2 +α lnCO2 +α lnGY +α ln DIS +α POLICY μ
α +
6 j 7 i 8 j 9 ij 10 i
Equation(2)
Model of lnTe = β0 + β1 lnGDP + β2 lnGDP + β3 ln POP + β4 lnGY + β5 lnTEMj +
e j j e
访谈结果与析lnCO2 + β lnCO2 + β lnGY + β ln DIS + β POLICY+ δ
Export ： β
6 j 7 e 8 j 9 ej 10 e
Equation(3)
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11. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade
Variables
Meaning
访谈结果与析
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12. The Gravity Model of Grain Trade
Data sources
China’s grain import countries : United States, Argentina, Canada,
Australia, and France.
China's grain export countries: Japan, Korea, Indonesia and
Malaysia.
These countries grain trade with China accounted for
more than 85%. So it had more fully convincing.
访谈结果与析 grain output and
grain trade volumes FAO
Data from 1986 to 2008 carbon dioxide
emission WB-D
Madison
GDP and population website
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13. Result and Analysis
4
STATA11
software
Data processing by panel
data
analysis.
,
R2 = 0.6084
,
model fitness better
ln GYi
removed
further analysis
POLICY ln GY j
访谈结果与析
ln POPj
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14. Result and Analysis
4
China grain import analysis
The variables pass the t-test.
Model fitness better
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15. Result and Analysis
4
China grain export analysis
,
R2 = 0.3064 Model fitness better
ln CO2 e
Removed
further analysis
POLICY
访谈结果与析
ln DIS ej
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16. Result and Analysis
4
China grain export analysis
The variables pass the t-test.
Model fitness better
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17. Result and Analysis
4
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18. Result and Analysis
4
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19. conclusion
5
1
2
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20. THANKS!
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