Fukushima dopo il 2011
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Fukushima Food Safety Conference, Sep 22, 2015, Milan
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Fukushima dopo il 2011
- 1. Fukushima dopo il 2011 Ryugo Hayano, U. Tokyo & CERN a personal recollection of an "antimatter" physicist Sep 22, 2015, Fukushima FOOD SAFETY CONFERENCE Tohoku Economic Federation
- 2. Today: September 22, 2015 1656 days = 4.53 years since the earthquake & Fukushima Dai-ichi accident
- 3. Teach physics in Tokyo, “antimatter” research at CERN since 1997 No past experience in Radiation Protection nor Risk Communication (lung cancer survivor) but since 2011, worked on the radiation protection of Fukushima peoplePhoto CERN
- 4. 知ろうとすること。 新潮文庫 早 野 龍 五 東 京 大 学 大 学 院 理 学 系 研 究 科 教 授 糸 井 重 里 >100,000 copies printed so far (also in e-book)
- 5. English Kindle version now available
- 6. Part 1 What happened at Fukushima Dai-ichi?
- 7. Areas where readings were not obtained Background image: Denshi Kokudo Legend Total accumulation of Cs-134 and Cs- 137 [Converted into the value as of November 5] Tokyo 100km 134Cs and 137Cs Bq/m2 250km source: mext Japan March 11, 2011 14:46 JST ←Fukushima Dai-ichi Earthquake M9
- 8. External power line destroyed by earthquake but diesel generators turned on 40 minutes later … Tsunami flooded diesel generators → total station blackout Supposed height +5.7m Acutual height +14m Altitude of site 10m (Unit 1-4) 13m (unit 5-6) Sea water pump Turbine building D/G, P/C Reactor building Normal sea level Wave block fence
- 9. No electricity, no cooling, core temperature >2500 ℃ Fuel rods melted down → release of radioactive substances ectric power of Emergency Diesel Generators (D/G) and power supply of Power Center (P/C) compared to the 14 m height. Taken after modification from the original figure provided by TEPCO. 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1000 800 600 400 200 0 3/11 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/17 3/18 1 3 2 1 2 3 Date in 2011
- 10. Evacuation order 3km - March 11 21:23 10km - March 12 5:44 20km - March 12 18:25 (~100,000 people) ←20 km after ~4.5 years, most of the people are still unable to return, even though the radiation levels in some areas have become low
- 11. Food, water, milk … Strict regulatory criteria 1,250 1,000 EU 400 2011 Mar 17 ~ 2012 Apr 1 ~ Bq/kg Bq/kg
- 12. In Fukushima, 134,137Cs need to be monitored (but not 90Sr, nor Pu) 107 104 10 Cs Sr Pu Bq/m2 Maximum contamination (soil)
- 13. Concerns - effect of low-dose exposures to the population External exposure 134,137Cs Internal exposure 134,137Cs
- 14. Fukushima Dai-ichi, serious accident However, No death due to ACUTE radiation effects DISCERNIBLE long-term health effects (e.g., cancer increase, incl. thyroid) unlikely source - WHO, UNSCEAR, IAEA Fukushima food, tested & safety confirmed Important take-home messages
- 15. Part 2 Why am I here today? @hayano
- 16. The number of my twitter followers ←March2011 ←March2012 ←March2013 ←March2014 ←March2015 3000 → 150,000 in a few days
- 17. Cs137が出す662 keVのガンマ線を確認したとい う意味か．福島第一原子力発電所．Cs137は天然 には存在せず，Sr90とともにウランの核分裂で生 じる代表的な放射性同位元素． Does it mean that the 662 keV gamma ray from Cs137 decay was detected at Fukushima Dai- ichi? Cs137 does not exist in nature, and together with Sr90, typical fission product isotope. 181 characters 89 characters Japanese tweets can contain more info My first Fukushima Tweet: Mar 12, 2011, 14:22
- 18. → source, Tohoku Univ. Major newspaper TV station TV station TV station TV caster Ranked 7th among the most influential twitter accounts
- 19. Science Magazine Blog top 100 scientists on twitter October 2014
- 20. s science stars, the sequel | Science/AAAS | News European Space Agency 20. Steven Pinker, Cognitive scientist 145,000 followers @sapinker (http://twitter.com/@sapinker) Citations: 49,933 K-index: 105 Total number of tweets: 1,674 Harvard University, United States 21. Richard Wiseman, Psychologist 135,000 followers @RichardWiseman (http://twitter.com/@RichardWiseman) Citations: 4,687 K-index: 209 Total number of tweets: 22,600 University of Hertfordshire, United Kingdom 22. Ryugo Hayano, Nuclear physicist 124,000 followers @hayano (http://twitter.com/@hayano) Citations: 956 K-index: 319 Total number of tweets: 56,500 University of Tokyo, Japan 23. Toshiyuki Masui, Computer scientist 122,000 followers @masui (http://twitter.com/@masui) … …
- 21. is bi-directional Power of the social media
- 22. summer, 2011 increasing number of mothers started to tweet: what about food safety? ©hayano
- 23. I proposed to measure school lunch; the government funded the project from 2012
- 24. Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ ÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊÊ ÊÊÊÊ ÊÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊ ÊÊ ÊÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê ÊÊÊÊ ÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ ÊÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ Ê Ê ÊÊÊÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊ ÊÊ Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê Ê ÊÊÊ ÊÊ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡‡‡‡ ‡‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡ ‡ ‡ ‡‡‡ Ê Ê Cs-134 検出限界 Cs-137 検出限界 Cs-137 有限値検出 2012ê12 2013ê4 2013ê8 2013ê12 2014ê4 2014ê8 2014ê12 0 1 2 3 4 5 YearêMonth Bqêkg 福島市の給食まるごと検査結果 Cs detection limit ● Cs detected ⚫ started to serve local rice but Cs-level did not increase Fukushima-city school lunch: free of radiocaesium (results of other municipalities are similar)
- 25. social media connect people ‣ medical doctors in Fukushima ‣ ICRP & other experts ‣ TV and newspaper reporters ‣ school teachers/students ‣ government officials/offices I got connected to (in most cases, they found me)
- 26. With medical doctors in Minamisoma City Hospital 23km north of FDNPP, fall 2011 ©hayano
- 27. Internal Exposure Q: how much radiocaesium are Fukushima people eating? A: much less than naturally-occurring K-40 Part 3 ©hayano
- 28. Average dose of Japanese (before the accident) 6 mSv/y (2.1 without medical) 0.48 0.3 6 0.33 2.09 0 980.98 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 mSv/y 0.48 0.3 26 0.33 2.09 0 980.98 Medical Internal External soil cosmic inhalation food K-40 : 0.2 mSv The goal is to limit the EXCESS public dose to 1 mSv/y
- 29. K-40 - about 4,000 Bq in adults’ body → ~0.2 mSv/year ⇤ 40 18Ar 0+ 40 19K Q⇤ 1311.09 4– 1.277⌅109 y ⇤ 89.28% QEC1504.9 EC 10.72% 40 20Ca 0+ Half life, 1.3 billion years! 40 18Ar 00+ 1460.8592+ 11 1460.830 E2 stable 1.12 ps 40 19K ⇥ 0.048% 21.03 10.67% 11.61 4– 0 1.277 109 y QEC=1504.9 10.72% γ ray β ray 137 55 Cs 137 56 Ba β γ β γ
- 30. 8 Fukushima c. Pop. 290k Koriyama c. Pop. 340k 137Cs deposition Bq/m2 (2011/11/5) Chernobyl studies, i.e., soil→food→people infer: average internal dose of e.g., Fukushima city residents ~ 5 mSv/y (initial estimate) 20km 30km
- 32. Internal radiocesium contamination of adults and children in Fukushima 7 to 20 months after the Fukushima NPP accident as measured by extensive whole-body-counter surveys By Ryugo S. HAYANO,*1,† Masaharu TSUBOKURA,*2 Makoto MIYAZAKI,*3 Hideo SATOU,*4 Katsumi SATO,*4 Shin MASAKI*4 and Yu SAKUMA*4 (Communicated by Toshimitsu YAMAZAKI, M.J.A.) Abstract: The Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP accident contaminated the soil of densely- populated regions in Fukushima Prefecture with radioactive cesium, which poses significant risks of internal and external exposure to the residents. If we apply the knowledge of post-Chernobyl accident studies, internal exposures in excess of a few mSv/y would be expected to be frequent in Fukushima. Extensive whole-body-counter surveys (n F 32,811) carried out at the Hirata Central Hospital between October, 2011 and November, 2012, however show that the internal exposure levels of residents are much lower than estimated. In particular, the first sampling-bias-free assessment of the internal exposure of children in the town of Miharu, Fukushima, shows that the 137 Cs body burdens of all children (n F 1,383, ages 6–15, covering 95% of children enrolled in town-operated schools) were below the detection limit of 300 Bq/body in the fall of 2012. These results are not conclusive for the prefecture as a whole, but are consistent with results obtained from other municipalities in the prefecture, and with prefectural data. Proc. Jpn. Acad., Ser. B 89 (2013)No. 4] 157 My first “medical” paper ‣ Internal exposure of Fukushima people surprisingly low - i.e., food contamination is negligible - children 100% (adult 99%) below detection limit already in 2012 - much lower than in 1960s (global fallout) - supported by other recent studies
- 33. 137Cs in Japanese adult male in 1964 ←1964 ∼10Bq/kg (no health effect) 99% of Fukushima people below this level already in 2012 was much higher than in Fukushima NOW
- 34. Why so low? 1. measurement & restriction 2. countermeasures
- 35. >10,000,000 rice bags (30 kg each) measured every year 71 exceeded the 100 Bq/kg limit in 2012 28 in 2013 2 in 2014 this is how the rice bags are measured
- 36. 土壌中の交換性カリ含量と玄米中の放射性セシ 稲わらの取扱による土壌中の交換性カリ含 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0 20 40 60 80 玄米中の放射性セシウム濃度 (Bq/kg) 土壌中の交換性カリ含量(mg K2O/100g) H23 A地区 H24 B地区 H24 C地区 【解 ・ 23 濃度 おい の交 ム濃 ・ 23 ウム 壌中 以上 基準 ・ また れの 図 5 （グライ土） （灰色低地土） （多湿黒ボク土） カリ施肥により放射性セシウムの吸収 を抑えることができる。 カリ肥料を施用せず、土壌中の交換性カリ 含量が低い状態のままだと、高濃度の放射 性セシウムが吸収される。 Csinbrownrice Potassium in soil Potassium fertilizer VERY effective Countermeasures: Soil → rice transfer can be suppressed
- 37. External Exposure Part 4 特徴 線量量 ・線量量率率率・警報設定値等の表⽰示 軽量量で操作が簡単 防⽔水(IP67) スタンドアローンまたは複数ユーザーを管理理する 線量量測定システムとしての利利⽤用 ⾳音と視覚による警報 ⼤大容量量の内部ヒストグラム メモリ ⾃自⼰己診断機能（バッテリー残量量、検出器とパラ メータ） DMC2000S Active Dosimetry - Dosimeters DMC2000S 個⼈人⽤用線量量計 DMC 2000S は50keVから6MevのX線およびγフ ィールドに対しては均⼀一のエネルギーレスポンス を⽰示し、⾃自然バックグラウンドから10Sv/h超ま での線量量率率率場に対してはリニアレスポンスを特徴 とします。 オプションの専⽤用ソフトとリーダーを介した⾮非接 触データ交換機能は、さまざまな柔軟性を提供し ます。 動作中の読込により、分割区域毎の管理理やリアル タイムの作業者の位置追跡ができます。
- 38. Fukushima c. 注：各市HP掲載データをもとに，1年分に変換 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage Fukushima 2011ê10-12 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage Date 2011ê9-2012ê2 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage Nihonmatsu 2011ê9-11 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Percentage Koriyama 2011ê10-11 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percentage MinamiSoma 2011ê10-12 2 4 6 8 10 mSvêy0 5 10 15 20 25 Percentage Soma 2011ê10-12 1mSv/y 1mSv/y 2 3 mo. results extrapolated to 1 year Date c. Nihonmatsu c. Minamisoma c. Soma c. Koriyama c. Personal dosimetry results, winter 2011
- 39. French students came to Fukushima last month with “D-shuttle” (personal dosimeter)
- 40. Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Dose (incl. natural sources) µSv/h ← Fukushima →← Paris → ← Tokyo→ ←Iwaki(50km) ←Tomioka(10km!) CDG security→ French embassy security→ D-shuttle data, 8 students, 4 teachers&experts
- 42. Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ← Fukushima →← Paris → ← Tokyo→ ←Miyakojiin20-kmzone Dose (incl. natural sources) µSv/h D-shuttle data, 8 students, 4 teachers&experts
- 44. Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ← Fukushima →← Paris → ← Tokyo→ ←Aizu(100km) ←Kunimi(60km) Dose (incl. natural sources) µSv/h D-shuttle data, 8 students, 4 teachers&experts
- 46. Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ← Fukushima →← Paris → ← Tokyo→ Not much difference D-shuttle data, 8 students, 4 teachers&experts Dose (incl. natural sources) µSv/h
- 47. Courtesy, NHK World BABYSCAN I made a whole-body counter for babies
- 48. Whole-body counter surveys of over 2700 babies and small children in and around Fukushima Prefecture 33 to 49 months after the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident Hayano et al., paper to be published in Proc. Japan Acad. B next month > 2700 babies scanned last year
- 49. Nobody had detectable level of radiocaesium
- 50. 3 BABYSCANs were used to measure the 2700 babies
- 51. ����������� �= ���� �=��% avoid tap Water avoid Fukushima rice avoid Fukushima vegetables ������� �= ���� �=�% ←makes no difference in the internal exposure→ Differences in risk perception in Minamisoma vs Miharu 57% 4% ~ 25 km ~ 50 km illustrating the psycho-social aspect of the situation
- 52. BTW data dissemination by the government - gradually getting better -
- 53. Percentage of fish off the coast of Fukushima Dai-ichi (fishing and marketing restricted) which exceeded the 100 Bq/kg criteria. Now 0.0% Fisheries agency (now showing graphs)
- 54. Fukushima prefecture portal is now multilingual http://www.pref.fukushima.lg.jp/site/portal/
- 55. Fukushima prefecture portal is now multilingual (machine translation - incl. Italiano) http://www.pref.fukushima.lg.jp/site/portal/
- 56. Real time and clickable radiation monitor map
- 57. searchable rice-test database with a graph (since 2012) https://fukumegu.org/ok/kome/
- 58. Conclusions
- 59. Despite soil contamination, the internal exposure of Fukushima people is negligibly low Fukushima food safety
- 60. BUT Parents with small children are much concerned about internal exposure - necessity of the BABYSCAN Radiation is NOT the only problem - psycho-social aspects are VERY important
- 61. Fukushima Dai-ichi, serious accident However, No death due to ACUTE radiation effects DISCERNIBLE long-term health effects (e.g., cancer increase, incl. thyroid) unlikely source - WHO, UNSCEAR, IAEA Fukushima food, tested & safety confirmed Take-home messages again