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The #NoEstimates Movement - COA 18

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#NoEstimates is an exploration of what estimates and how agile and scrum teams use them in their daily practices. This talk helps teams discover new ways to forecast delivery.

Veröffentlicht in: Leadership & Management
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The #NoEstimates Movement - COA 18

  1. 1. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company The #NoEstimates Movement
  2. 2. HTTP://RYANRIPLEY.COM RYAN@RYANRIPLEY.COM @RYANRIPLEY PODCAST © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  3. 3. [v#] ©1993 – 2018 Scrum.org All Rights Reserved Professional Scrum at Scrum.org 3 www.scrum.org/courses Everyone! Scrum Masters・Managers・ ScrumTeam Members Experienced Scrum Masters ProductOwners・Product Managers・ Advanced Practitioners All members of a ScrumTeam including: Developers・Scrum Masters・Product Owners・Analysts・Testers … Development Leads and Managers・ Scrum Masters・Project Managers・ Advanced Practitioners Managers・Leaders・ProductOwners・ Scrum Masters All members of a ScrumTeam including: DevelopmentTeam Members・Scrum Masters・ProductOwners
  4. 4. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company @coachingagilejo
  5. 5. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company #NoEstimates
  6. 6. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  7. 7. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  8. 8. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  9. 9. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  10. 10. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  11. 11. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company We are uncovering better ways of developing software by doing it and helping others do it. Through this work we have come to value: Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Working software over comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over contract negotiation Responding to change over following a plan That is, while there is value in the items on the right, we value the items on the left more.
  12. 12. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company Stacey Diagram • Simple: Everything is known • Complicated: More is known than unknown • Complex: More is unknown than know • Chaotic: Very little is known
  13. 13. EXPERIMENTATION @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  14. 14. SAFETY @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  15. 15. CONTINUOUS LEARNING @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  16. 16. DELIVERY @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  17. 17. WHAT IS AN ESTIMATE ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  18. 18. @ryanripley #NoEstimates Dictionary.com - an approximate judgment or calculation, as of the value, amount, time, size, or weight of something. Merriam-Webster - a : to judge tentatively or approximately the value, worth, or significance of b : to determine roughly the size, extent, or nature of c : to produce a statement of the approximate cost of The American Heritage Dictionary – 1. A tentative evaluation or rough calculation. 2. A preliminary calculation of the cost of a project. 3. A judgement based upon one’s impressions; opinion. Predicting the Unpredictable by Johanna Rothman – Literally, “guess.” How long or how much you think the project will take for date and/or cost. Software Estimation by Steve McConnell – A good estimate is an estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project and hit its targets. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  19. 19. @ryanripley #NoEstimates EFFORT/COST/DURATION OF THE WORK •Domain Knowledge •Programming Experience ACCIDENTAL COMPLICATION •Code Complexity •Design Decisions •Team Stability •Multitasking •Dependencies •Technical Debt •Legacy Code •Deployment Pipeline •Size of Your Stories •Clarity of Work •Quality of Requirements •Lack of Priorities •WIP Limits Too High •Management Discipline •Technology / Platform Changes •Team Collaboration •Craftsmanship ESSENTIAL COMPLICATION •Inherent Difficulty of the Work •Natural Disasters •Unforeseen Occurrences ESTIMATE = ++ @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  20. 20. @ryanripley #NoEstimates ESTIMATE = “THE WORK” + “BUFFER” @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  21. 21. DO ESTIMATES ADD VALUE ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  22. 22. @ryanripley #NoEstimates MAGIC NUMBERS “MULTIPLY BY 2 AND ADD 2 WEEKS” 80% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL http://www.businessinsider.com/nate-silver- hillary-clinton-donald-trump-2016-6 1) MAKE YOUR ESTIMATES 2) ADD ONE 3) TAKE THE NEXT UNIT PAD THE NUMBERS BY 20% (WHY NOT 40%?) EXCEL GYMNASTICS @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  23. 23. @ryanripley #NoEstimates “IN 1986, PROFS. S.D. CONTE, H.E. DUNSMORE, AND V.Y. SHEN PROPOSED THAT A GOOD ESTIMATION APPROACH SHOULD PROVIDE ESTIMATES THAT ARE WITHIN 25% OF THE ACTUAL RESULTS 75% OF THE TIME.” SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  24. 24. @ryanripley #NoEstimates “OF THE LARGE SYSTEMS THAT ARE COMPLETED, 66% EXPERIENCE SCHEDULE DELAYS AND COST OVERRUN.” SOURCE: Project Management Tools and Software Failures and Successes by Capers Jones – Journal of Defense Software Engineering @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  25. 25. @ryanripley #NoEstimates 80% of Projects Are Late or Failed **Cost and/or duration estimates not met. SOURCE: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell Overall, a compelling number of studies have found results in line with the results reported by The Standish Group and Jones, that about one quarter of all projects are delivered on time; about one quarter are cancelled; and about half are delivered late, over budget, or both. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  26. 26. @ryanripley #NoEstimates “17% OF LARGE IT PROJECTS GO SO BADLY THAT THEY CAN THREATEN THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THE COMPANY.” SOURCE: McKinsey & Company with University of Oxford – Study on large scale IT projects - 2012 @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  27. 27. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  28. 28. @ryanripley #NoEstimates DECISIONS @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  29. 29. WHAT IS #NOESTIMATES ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  30. 30. @WoodyZuill @Neil_Killick@Duarte_Vasco @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  31. 31. #NOESTIMATES IS A HASHTAG FOR THE TOPIC OF EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES TO ESTIMATES FOR MAKING DECISIONS IN SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT. THAT IS, WAYS TO MAKE DECISIONS WITH “NO ESTIMATES” @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  32. 32. THIS IS THE MAIN PREMISE BEHIND #NOESTIMATES: ESTIMATES DO NOT DIRECTLY ADD VALUE TO YOUR PROCESS, SO WE WANT TO FIND WAYS TO REDUCE THE ESTIMATION PROCESS OR EVEN STOP IT WHERE POSSIBLE @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  33. 33. #NOESTIMATES ISN’T ABOUT DITCHING ESTIMATES. IT IS ABOUT IMPROVING THE WAY WE WORK SUCH THAT ESTIMATES BECOME REDUNDANT @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  34. 34. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  35. 35. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  36. 36. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  37. 37. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  38. 38. @ryanripley #NoEstimates “Bill Hanlon looked at 60-ish projects that used relative estimates. He looked at how accurate their predictions were as compared to the actuals. Then he reset all estimates to 1 and recomputed their velocities, made accordant projections and compared those to actuals. He found about a 3% variance in predictive accuracy between full data and just using 1. SOURCE: Planning with Any Hope of Accuracy by Arlo Belshee - http://arlobelshee.com/planning-with-any-hope-of-accuracy/ @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  39. 39. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? Using 1 – 3 – 5 Planning Poker Cards Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  40. 40. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? Using 1 – 2 - 3 Planning Poker Cards Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  41. 41. WHY DO WE NEED ESTIMATES ? All stories labeled with a “1” Source: Vasco Duarte - #NoEstimates Keynote @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  42. 42. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  43. 43. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  44. 44. @ryanripley #NoEstimates
  45. 45. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  46. 46. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  47. 47. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  48. 48. @ryanripley #NoEstimates
  49. 49. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  50. 50. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  51. 51. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  52. 52. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  53. 53. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  54. 54. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  55. 55. @ryanripley #NoEstimates NEXT STEPS: 1. IF YOU ESTIMATE IN HOURS MOVE TO SP’s 2. DON’T ESTIMATE TASKS 3. LIMIT THE SIZE OF STORIES 4. IF YOU USE SP’s, ONLY USE 1,3, and 5 5. BUILD CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAMS 6. EVERY STORY CAN BE A 1 7. NEGOTIATE DECISIONS, NOT ESTIMATES @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  56. 56. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  57. 57. Recommended Resources: Blogs: • Woody Zuill - http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/ • Neil Killick – http://neilkillick.wordpress.com/ • Vasco Duarte - http://oikosofy.com/news/ YouTube Videos: • Alan Holub’s #NoEstimates Keynote - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVBlnCTu9Ms • Woody Zuill’s #NoEstimates: Lets Explore the Possibilities - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5oMk2oRJNbc Books: • Vasco Duarte’s #NoEstimates Book - http://noestimatesbook.com/ • Johanna Rothman’s Predicting the Unpredictable - http://amzn.to/2mG2qXd Podcasts: • Agile for Humans Episode 52 “Software Estimation with Steve McConnell” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-052-software- estimation-with-steve-mcconnell-podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 50 “Agile Ideas with Neil Killick” - http://ryanripley.com/afh-050-agile-ideas-with-neil-killick- podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 45 “System Thinking and #NoEstimates with Chris Chapman” - http://ryanripley.com/afh- 045-system-thinking-and-noestimates-with-chris-chapman-podcast/ • Agile for Humans Episode 20 “#NoEstimates with Vasco Duarte” - http://ryanripley.com/noestimates-with-vasco- duarte/ @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company
  58. 58. @coachingagilejo@ RYANRIPLEY © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company PROFESSIONAL SCRUM MASTER II (PSM II) TAMPA, FL DECEMBER 11-12 http://ryanripley.com/psm2fl USE THE CODE: SERVANTLEADER FOR $100 OFF THE COURSE
  59. 59. THANK YOU! KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING: HTTP://RYANRIPLEY.COM RYAN@RYANRIPLEY.COM @RYANRIPLEY PODCAST © 2018 Ryan Ripley & Company Slides are available at: https://ryanripley.com/ CAJ18

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