Assessing economy-wide effects of recent external shocks on Asian developing ...
Pistachio Trends & Outlook
1. Current 2014 USDA Predicted Pistachio Trends
Global:
• Production is forecasted at 500,000 metric tons.
• Down 20% due to the off-year of alternate bearing crop.
• Exports are expected to rise 6% to 315,000 tons.
• Increased demand from China and the E.U.
United States:
• U.S. production is forecasted to decline 15% to 213,000 tons due to the off-year.
• Exports, however, could reach a record 175,000 tons to China and the E.U.
Iran:
• Production is forecasted down 7% to 170,000 tons.
• Exports are expected to be up 10%, reaching 135,000 tons.
Turkey:
• Production is expected to dive over 50%, but will have little effect on the market, as Turkey’s crop is primarily consumed domestically.
China:
• Imports are forecasted 5% higher at 80,000 tons, and have tripled in 5 years.
• Shanghai and Beijing are key U.S. pistachio markets, valuing the higher quality crop.
European Union:
• Imports should rebound following the financial crisis, and reach 70,000 tons.
• The U.S. supplies the majority of the pistachio market.
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, “Pistachios: World Markets and Trade.”
2. Country/Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
U.S. 126,100 161,025 236,775 201,395 249,929
Iran 90,000 184,000 216,000 160,000 183,000
Syria 53,000 61,000 57,000 56,000 57,000
Turkey 85,000 38,000 110,000 50,000 117,000
E.U. 11,200 11,200 6,300 6,800 6,800
Other 0 0 0 0 0
Total Production 365,300 455,225 626,075 474,195 613,729
Pistachio Production: Metric Tons, In-Shell
Country/Province 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Turkey 71,450 61,965 86,275 86,250 96,100
China 29,150 46,025 57,375 69,575 76,150
E.U. 96,480 85,625 73,025 63,325 69,875
U.S. 27,656 50,900 50,255 73,608 76,142
Syria 55,700 64,700 59,400 57,500 54,100
Iran 27,900 55,800 58,900 47,900 51,000
Hong Kong 23,450 29,900 30,825 23,875 36,400
United Arab Emirates 13,700 20,975 18,350 18,275 21,000
Canada 6,700 7,575 12,600 15,300 17,000
India 3,050 4,975 7,450 5,150 9,800
Other 34,300 42,025 63,325 54,875 50,400
Total Consumption: 389,536 470,465 517,780 515,633 557,967
Domestic Pistachio Consumption: Metric Tons, In-Shell
Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Services, “Pistachios: World Markets and Trade.”
Global Pistachio Production & Consumption (Supply & Demand):
2009-2013 Recorded Data
4. California Production & Average Return/lb Trends:
Based on 2000-2013 Recorded Data
Key Observations
• Notable, steady increase in CA production since 2000.
• Although changes in price/lb have been volatile from year
to year, overall trend is positive.
• Production 14-year growth rate = 7.95%
• Return/lb 14-year growth rate = 5.48%
Source: American Pistachio Industry, Annual Report
Possible Causes/Effects
• Pistachios are an alternate bearing crop, meaning supply
to the market will be heavier one year, and lighter during
the year following.
• Overall consumption of the crop is steady and increasing.
• This often causes a shortage in the market one season,
and a surplus the next, creating the up and down nature of
the return/lb pistachio growers receive each year.
Conclusions
• The pistachio market is growing rapidly due to increased
production in the U.S., and surging consumption abroad.
• Markets are healthy, and should remain so for many years
• Wonderful Pistachios expects to process a 1 billion pound
pistachio crop by 2020.