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Getting R&D Priorities Right

                                                  Rushdi Abdul Rahim



                                                   28th February 2012




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
BACKGROUND



                                                        • National Technology
                                                          Foresight study
                                                          commissioned by MOSTI
                                                          in September 2010;

                                                        • National Science &
                                                          Research Council
                                                          approved on Dec 2010 by
                                                          the Cabinet.



                         Science & Technology Support

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
R&D GOVERNANCE
                                                            Prime Minister’s Office


                                                             NATIONAL SCIENCE &                                   Secretariat
                                                             RESEARCH COUNCIL                                       MOSTI




                              Priority Setting Mechanism                              R&D Evaluation & Outcome
                                        for R&D                                              Monitoring




                                                           EXPERT WORKING GROUPS
      Environmental                                                                        Computer Sciences &
                                      Agriculture Sciences        Chemical Sciences                              Engineering Sciences
         Sciences                                                                                 ICT

  Advanced Materials                                               Mathematics &            Health & Medical     Humanities & Social
                                           Life Sciences
      Sciences                                                    Physical Sciences             Sciences             Sciences




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
THE NEEDS
       • National R&D Priority Areas for :
          – Streamlining national scientific research areas,
          – Efficient distribution & utilisation of public funds,
          – Focus in the strength & niche of Malaysia,
          – Advancing Malaysian research and innovation to benefit the
            community; and
          – Intensifying R&D funding (GERD).
       • Strategic R&D Directions and Framework by:
          – Establishing the National Science Act; and
          – Formulation of the National Science, Technology &
            Innovation Policy.



2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
THE APPROACH
      Taking the mandates spelt out by the NSRC, the following was
      undertaken in prioritizing the R&D areas:

               • Establishment of National R&D Framework
               • Engagement of Expert Working Groups which represents 10
                 disciplines
               • Analysis of existing National Focus Areas
               • Benchmarking & comparative analysis of international R&D
                 areas
               • Assessment of global & local mega trends & issues
               • Analysis of Malaysia’s R&D strengths & weaknesses as well
                 as analyzing its opportunities & threats



2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
NATIONAL R&D FRAMEWORK
                                                                 VISION 2020/NEM
                                                  HIGH INCOME FULLY DEVELOPED NATION & ECONOMY


                                              High Income                        Inclusiveness                Sustainability




         Foresight
                                                                             R&D GOALS
           ISSUES &                                                                                                               Legal
          PROBLEMS                                                                                                                Framework
                                             New Discoveries &
                                                                                 Competitiveness             Societal Wellbeing
                                           Knowledge Generation

    TRENDS & DRIVERS
                                                                      R&D PRIORITY AREAS

         SCENARIOS
                                                  Areas 1              Areas 2                     Areas 3           Areas 4




                                                                                                                                    FUNDING

                                                                                                                                              POLICIES
   Strategies
   • Develop                                                CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
   • Partnership
                                           Competencies                                                           Facilities
   • Acquire                                                      Human Capital            Infrastructure
                                            Career Path                                                           Support

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
BENCHMARKING S&T DEVELOPMENT

                                                                                               Applying the
                                                                                               Composite Science and
                                                                                               Technology Innovation
                                                                                               Index (COSTII) set of
                                                                                               indicators, Malaysia
                                                                                               ranked significantly
                                                                                               behind in R&D
                                                                                               intensity compared to
                                                                                               other OECD countries




                                             Item                               Indicators
                                                     1.   Total amount of R&D investment (million USD, PPP)
                                     Investment in   2.   Ratio of total R&D investment per GDP
                                         R&D         3.   R&D investment per researcher
          Activities                                 4.   Ratio of industrial R&D investment vis-à-vis GDP

                                    Entrepreneurial 1. Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) (Age group of 18 to 64)
                                       Activities   2. Ratio of investment of venture capital vis-à-vis GDP

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
BENCHMARKING FOCUS AREAS
             COUNTRIES                     GERD/GDP (%)                                                 AREAS
       South Korea                                          4.0   • Automotive • Shipbuilding • Machinery & manufacturing • Semiconductor •
                                                                  Display • IT based convergent technologies • Medical & healthcare • Advance
                                                                  logistic • Communication & broadcasting • Construction • Space & Ocean •
                                                                  Nuclear • Health & safety • Energy & resources • Climate change & environment
                                                                  • Convergent/composite material •


       Finland                                       3.45         • ICT • Electronics / electro-technical • Machine / metal products • Forestry •



       Japan                                        3.18          • Life sciences • IT • Nanotech • Materials • Environmental sciences • Energy •
                                                                  Infrastructure • Oceans • Outer space •


       Singapore                                  2.60            • Environmental and Water Technologies • Interactive and Digital Media •
                                                                  Manufacturing clusters ; electronics, chemicals, engineering and biomedical
                                                                  sciences •

       UK                                                         • Arts and Humanities • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences • Engineering and
                                           1.73                   Physical Sciences • Economic and Social • Medical • Natural Environment •
                                                                  Science and Technology Facilities • Defence •

       China                                                      • Energy resources and environmental protection • IT, new materials and
                                         1.50                     manufacturing • Agriculture, population and health • Space and ocean
                                                                  technology • Basic sciences and frontier technology •


       Brazil                          1.28                       • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Biofuels • renewable bio-energy •




       Malaysia                      0.82

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
NATIONAL FOCUS AREAS
                                          6 national key result areas


                                                                  12 national key economic areas


                                          11 development areas


                                                                  12 manufacturing sectors
                                                                   8 non government business areas


                                           9 National technology foresight areas
                                           6 Mega science areas


                                                                 Niche priority areas
2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
FOCUS AREAS COMPARISONS




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
FACTS/ MEGA TRENDS
                       FOOD SECURITY
                       Global                                                    Local
                       • The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (2009-2018)           • Malaysia's food imports considerably outstrips it export bill.
                         predicts that demand for food will grow by 50 % by        In 2010, Malaysia's food import bill amounted to RM 40.5
                         2030 and 70 % by 2050. By 2050, it is expected that       billion for agricultural based products.
                         the world's population will reach a staggering 9        • In the ETP, food security issues are highlighted in agriculture
                         billion.                                                  key economic area . Total of RM18.9 billion would be
                       • More people die each year from hunger and                 invested to boost food supply.
                         malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria   • The total Malaysia fisheries production has increased from
                         combined . In 2009, the FAO projects world hunger to      RM 5.2 billion in 2005 to RM 8.6 billion in 2009; a growth of
                         reach a historic high with 1.02 billion people going      64.9%. However, 70% of the fish are imported.
                         hungry every day.
                       • The World Bank estimates that one hectare of land
                         will need to feed 5 people in 2025, whereas in 1960
                         one hectare was required to feed only 2 people.
                       • More people die each year from hunger and
                         malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria
                         combined . In 2009, the FAO projects world hunger to
                         reach a historic high with 1.02 billion people going
                         hungry every day.
LONG TERM
  GOALS




                       • Reduce dependency of import on staple food and
                         increase the level of self sufficiency




                       • Improvement of animal feedstock and breeding of
FOCUS
AREAS




                         food crops adapted to climate change;
                       • Exploitation of biodiversity for novel food/feed.                                                         Source: US Dept. of Agriculture; Food &
                                                                                                                                     Agricultural Policy Research Institute

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
FOOD SECURITY
                                                                    Many reasons explain the present escalation in
                  GLOBAL FOOD                                       food prices. Climate change is one. The use of food
                                                                    crops to produce fuel for vehicles is another factor.    Current paddy
              OUTPUT WILL HAVE                                      Related to this is the scarcity of land areas for        yield was just ≈
                                                                    agriculture. While increase in global population            3.7 tonnes
                 TO RISE BY 70%                                     particularly middle class in recent years led to
                                                                    significant growth in food consumption.



                                  7.6%                                       70%                                      Yield
                              price increase                              are imported                              still unrealised




               Market prices of imported mutton from              Price for deep sea fishes had              700 million coconuts needed a year
               Australia has gone up on an average of           increased between 20% and 30%                   but was only 400 million was
                                 12%                                                                                  produced annually



                                          ≈ 930 tonnes unconsumed
                                                                                                     11.7%
                                          food discarded daily                                                       8.4%              10.2%
                                          Doubled over the past three
                                          years.                                         4.6 %


                                                                                                    6.2%
                                                                                                              FOOD  INFLATION
2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
PRIORITIZATION PROCESS
                                                           10 EWGs
 •     Alignment to national priorities                                          •   Application potential &
 •     Economic & industrial impact                                                  diffusion
 •     Knowledge generation                                                      •   Cost effectiveness
 •     Social & societal impact        Attractiveness Feasibility                •   Material & infrastructure
 •     National competitiveness                                                  •   People & competencies
 •     Novelty                                                                   •   Technology readiness &
                                                                                     maturity
                                                                                 •   Time horizon of impact
                                                          > 500
                                                  Candidates of research areas


                                                       Global
                                                       Issues


                                                                National
                                                                 Issues




                                                                x
2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
                                                    R&D PRIORITY AREAS
EWGs CONSULTATION




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
THE RECOMMENDATIONS


                                                       Knowledge generation & strengthening the areas of
                              S&T
                                                       fundamental science, social sciences as well as the cross cutting
                            Enablers
                                                       & converging technologies




                                                       Areas in relation to the general well being of the nation and the
                    National & Global
                                                       society, addressing national issues as well as those that will
                         Issues
                                                       enable the country to cope with global issues

                                                  •   Cyber Security                     •   Medical & Healthcare
                                                  •   Energy Security                    •   Plantation Crops & Commodities
                                                  •   Environment & Climate Change       •   Transport & Urbanization
                                                  •   Food Security                      •   Water Security



2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
MOVING FORWARD

                                                  Initiatives in progress to achieve the
                                                  following:-
                                                      • Endorsement & adoption of the
                                                        National R&D Priority areas;
                                                      • Policies to increase the allocation of
                                                        >1% GERD/GDP ;
                                                      • Creation of Programmes for High
                                                        Impact R&D in the priority areas
                                                        identified.




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
STAKEHOLDERS THOUGHTS
                               “What is being done today is to set or mapped out the technology
                               foresight but the utmost important thing is to explain and illuminate to
                               the industry and the stakeholders, which include researchers and policy
                               makers about the findings and the likely technologies going to be in the
                               future. I believe that what we are doing today is just the beginning…
                               there is still a lot more work to do after this…”

Dato' Dr. Mahani Zainal Abidin
Member                                            “The basic human weakness is we tend to overestimate
National Economic Advisory Council                     the short-term impact but at the same time under
                                                         estimate the long-term impact. The Government
                                                     needs to consistently ask question. But the fact that
                                                    we are going through the process of Foresight shows
                                                                          that we are at a good start…”
                                                                                             Dr. Kamarulzaman "Dr. K" Mohamed Zin
                               “Foresight is important every where in the world                                Chief Executive Officer
                               because there is a need to learn from the past                             Silterra Malaysia Sdn. Bhd.
                               and the present in order to shape the future.
                               Forecasting by imagination is insufficient …This
                               attempt is just a start and must be continued…”

  Tan Sri Dato’ Dr Ahmad Mustafa Babjee
  Fellow
  Akademi Sains Malaysia

2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
Thank You

           rushdi@might.org.my




2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium

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Getting R&D priority areas right

  • 1. Getting R&D Priorities Right Rushdi Abdul Rahim 28th February 2012 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 2. BACKGROUND • National Technology Foresight study commissioned by MOSTI in September 2010; • National Science & Research Council approved on Dec 2010 by the Cabinet. Science & Technology Support 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 3. R&D GOVERNANCE Prime Minister’s Office NATIONAL SCIENCE & Secretariat RESEARCH COUNCIL MOSTI Priority Setting Mechanism R&D Evaluation & Outcome for R&D Monitoring EXPERT WORKING GROUPS Environmental Computer Sciences & Agriculture Sciences Chemical Sciences Engineering Sciences Sciences ICT Advanced Materials Mathematics & Health & Medical Humanities & Social Life Sciences Sciences Physical Sciences Sciences Sciences 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 4. THE NEEDS • National R&D Priority Areas for : – Streamlining national scientific research areas, – Efficient distribution & utilisation of public funds, – Focus in the strength & niche of Malaysia, – Advancing Malaysian research and innovation to benefit the community; and – Intensifying R&D funding (GERD). • Strategic R&D Directions and Framework by: – Establishing the National Science Act; and – Formulation of the National Science, Technology & Innovation Policy. 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 5. THE APPROACH Taking the mandates spelt out by the NSRC, the following was undertaken in prioritizing the R&D areas: • Establishment of National R&D Framework • Engagement of Expert Working Groups which represents 10 disciplines • Analysis of existing National Focus Areas • Benchmarking & comparative analysis of international R&D areas • Assessment of global & local mega trends & issues • Analysis of Malaysia’s R&D strengths & weaknesses as well as analyzing its opportunities & threats 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 6. NATIONAL R&D FRAMEWORK VISION 2020/NEM HIGH INCOME FULLY DEVELOPED NATION & ECONOMY High Income Inclusiveness Sustainability Foresight R&D GOALS ISSUES & Legal PROBLEMS Framework New Discoveries & Competitiveness Societal Wellbeing Knowledge Generation TRENDS & DRIVERS R&D PRIORITY AREAS SCENARIOS Areas 1 Areas 2 Areas 3 Areas 4 FUNDING POLICIES Strategies • Develop CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS • Partnership Competencies Facilities • Acquire Human Capital Infrastructure Career Path Support 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 7. BENCHMARKING S&T DEVELOPMENT Applying the Composite Science and Technology Innovation Index (COSTII) set of indicators, Malaysia ranked significantly behind in R&D intensity compared to other OECD countries Item Indicators 1. Total amount of R&D investment (million USD, PPP) Investment in 2. Ratio of total R&D investment per GDP R&D 3. R&D investment per researcher Activities 4. Ratio of industrial R&D investment vis-à-vis GDP Entrepreneurial 1. Total Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) (Age group of 18 to 64) Activities 2. Ratio of investment of venture capital vis-à-vis GDP 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 8. BENCHMARKING FOCUS AREAS COUNTRIES GERD/GDP (%) AREAS South Korea 4.0 • Automotive • Shipbuilding • Machinery & manufacturing • Semiconductor • Display • IT based convergent technologies • Medical & healthcare • Advance logistic • Communication & broadcasting • Construction • Space & Ocean • Nuclear • Health & safety • Energy & resources • Climate change & environment • Convergent/composite material • Finland 3.45 • ICT • Electronics / electro-technical • Machine / metal products • Forestry • Japan 3.18 • Life sciences • IT • Nanotech • Materials • Environmental sciences • Energy • Infrastructure • Oceans • Outer space • Singapore 2.60 • Environmental and Water Technologies • Interactive and Digital Media • Manufacturing clusters ; electronics, chemicals, engineering and biomedical sciences • UK • Arts and Humanities • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences • Engineering and 1.73 Physical Sciences • Economic and Social • Medical • Natural Environment • Science and Technology Facilities • Defence • China • Energy resources and environmental protection • IT, new materials and 1.50 manufacturing • Agriculture, population and health • Space and ocean technology • Basic sciences and frontier technology • Brazil 1.28 • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Biofuels • renewable bio-energy • Malaysia 0.82 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 9. NATIONAL FOCUS AREAS 6 national key result areas 12 national key economic areas 11 development areas 12 manufacturing sectors 8 non government business areas 9 National technology foresight areas 6 Mega science areas Niche priority areas 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 10. FOCUS AREAS COMPARISONS 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 11. STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 12. STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 13. STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 14. STAKEHOLDERS ENGAGEMENT 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 15. FACTS/ MEGA TRENDS FOOD SECURITY Global Local • The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook (2009-2018) • Malaysia's food imports considerably outstrips it export bill. predicts that demand for food will grow by 50 % by In 2010, Malaysia's food import bill amounted to RM 40.5 2030 and 70 % by 2050. By 2050, it is expected that billion for agricultural based products. the world's population will reach a staggering 9 • In the ETP, food security issues are highlighted in agriculture billion. key economic area . Total of RM18.9 billion would be • More people die each year from hunger and invested to boost food supply. malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria • The total Malaysia fisheries production has increased from combined . In 2009, the FAO projects world hunger to RM 5.2 billion in 2005 to RM 8.6 billion in 2009; a growth of reach a historic high with 1.02 billion people going 64.9%. However, 70% of the fish are imported. hungry every day. • The World Bank estimates that one hectare of land will need to feed 5 people in 2025, whereas in 1960 one hectare was required to feed only 2 people. • More people die each year from hunger and malnutrition than from AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined . In 2009, the FAO projects world hunger to reach a historic high with 1.02 billion people going hungry every day. LONG TERM GOALS • Reduce dependency of import on staple food and increase the level of self sufficiency • Improvement of animal feedstock and breeding of FOCUS AREAS food crops adapted to climate change; • Exploitation of biodiversity for novel food/feed. Source: US Dept. of Agriculture; Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 16. FOOD SECURITY Many reasons explain the present escalation in GLOBAL FOOD food prices. Climate change is one. The use of food crops to produce fuel for vehicles is another factor. Current paddy OUTPUT WILL HAVE Related to this is the scarcity of land areas for yield was just ≈ agriculture. While increase in global population 3.7 tonnes TO RISE BY 70% particularly middle class in recent years led to significant growth in food consumption. 7.6% 70% Yield price increase are imported still unrealised Market prices of imported mutton from Price for deep sea fishes had 700 million coconuts needed a year Australia has gone up on an average of increased between 20% and 30% but was only 400 million was 12% produced annually ≈ 930 tonnes unconsumed 11.7% food discarded daily 8.4% 10.2% Doubled over the past three years. 4.6 % 6.2% FOOD INFLATION 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 17. PRIORITIZATION PROCESS 10 EWGs • Alignment to national priorities • Application potential & • Economic & industrial impact diffusion • Knowledge generation • Cost effectiveness • Social & societal impact Attractiveness Feasibility • Material & infrastructure • National competitiveness • People & competencies • Novelty • Technology readiness & maturity • Time horizon of impact > 500 Candidates of research areas Global Issues National Issues x 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium R&D PRIORITY AREAS
  • 18. EWGs CONSULTATION 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 19. THE RECOMMENDATIONS Knowledge generation & strengthening the areas of S&T fundamental science, social sciences as well as the cross cutting Enablers & converging technologies Areas in relation to the general well being of the nation and the National & Global society, addressing national issues as well as those that will Issues enable the country to cope with global issues • Cyber Security • Medical & Healthcare • Energy Security • Plantation Crops & Commodities • Environment & Climate Change • Transport & Urbanization • Food Security • Water Security 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 20. MOVING FORWARD Initiatives in progress to achieve the following:- • Endorsement & adoption of the National R&D Priority areas; • Policies to increase the allocation of >1% GERD/GDP ; • Creation of Programmes for High Impact R&D in the priority areas identified. 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 21. STAKEHOLDERS THOUGHTS “What is being done today is to set or mapped out the technology foresight but the utmost important thing is to explain and illuminate to the industry and the stakeholders, which include researchers and policy makers about the findings and the likely technologies going to be in the future. I believe that what we are doing today is just the beginning… there is still a lot more work to do after this…” Dato' Dr. Mahani Zainal Abidin Member “The basic human weakness is we tend to overestimate National Economic Advisory Council the short-term impact but at the same time under estimate the long-term impact. The Government needs to consistently ask question. But the fact that we are going through the process of Foresight shows that we are at a good start…” Dr. Kamarulzaman "Dr. K" Mohamed Zin “Foresight is important every where in the world Chief Executive Officer because there is a need to learn from the past Silterra Malaysia Sdn. Bhd. and the present in order to shape the future. Forecasting by imagination is insufficient …This attempt is just a start and must be continued…” Tan Sri Dato’ Dr Ahmad Mustafa Babjee Fellow Akademi Sains Malaysia 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium
  • 22. Thank You rushdi@might.org.my 2012. UK-Malaysia Partners in Science Symposium