Weitere ähnliche Inhalte Ähnlich wie JLL Cincinnati Industrial Outlook - Q3 2016 (18) Mehr von Ross Bratcher (12) Kürzlich hochgeladen (20) JLL Cincinnati Industrial Outlook - Q3 20162. 234,967,387
Market size (s.f.)
4,203,243
YTD total net absorption (s.f.)
$3.71
Average asking rent (p.s.f.)
1,679,274
Total under construction (s.f.)
4.2%
Total vacancy
1.8%
Net absorption (as a % of stock)
1.9%
12-month rent growth
4,309,315
YTD construction completions (s.f.)
0
2
4
6
8
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
100-200K 200-300K 300-500K 500K+
Projects under construction by size range (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research, Chart analyzes speculative and BTS projects >100,000 s.f.
Leasing activity by class (000s s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Speculative deliveries by submarket since 2014 (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Developers look to fill void with Q3 construction starts
Developers continued the recent trend of reducing the footprint for projects that
broke ground in the third quarter. While the first half of 2016 saw construction
activity heavily focused on buildings greater than 300,000 square feet,
construction has shifted as buildings less than 300,000 square feet account for
the majority of projects in the development pipeline. Leasing velocity within the
market has long been focused in the 50,000 to 150,000 square foot size range.
The smaller speculative buildings under construction can accommodate single or
multiple tenants within that range, positioning them to capitalize on tenants within
that size range. Steady demand and rising rental rates have afforded developers
the ability to move forward with smaller projects.
Class B leasing activity outpaces Class A in third quarter
While newly constructed modern bulk warehouse space has become the most
desirable space for tenants in today’s industrial world, Class B space has made
a comeback with the signing of two large deals in the third quarter. While Cass B
space may not provide the same amenities as newly constructed Class A space,
the product can still provide value for tenants in today’s market. Landlords are
using aggressive tenant improvement packages to add dock doors, and upgrade
sprinklers and lighting in order to entice tenants to lease space in Class B
buildings. Although Class A space is estimated to significantly outpace Class B
space moving forward, the third quarter proved there is still a market for older
product in Cincinnati.
Speculative constructions return to the Airport submarket continues
In the current development cycle, the southern and northern most submarkets
have been the focus of construction activity with over 13.5 million square feet of
space delivered since the Great Recession. While multiple build-to-suit projects
have taken place in the Airport submarket, only two speculative buildings have
been delivered in the submarket since 2009. The last completion, Prologis’
520,000-square-foot Gateway International, was leased to HH Gregg in the
second quarter of 2016. Two speculative developments commenced in the third
quarter, bringing the submarket back into the fray with Hemmer Constructions’
Airpark West #16 and Dermodys’ LogistiCenter at 275 #2; the projects total
151,800 and 264,000 square feet respectively.
Vacancy remains low amidst new deliveries
Industrial Insight
Cincinnati | Q3 2016
For more information, contact: Ross Bratcher | ross.bratcher@am.jll.com ©2016 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
2,535,613
1,643,129
806,914
793,600
Monroe
Florence/Richwood
Tri County
Airport
0
600
1,200
1,800
Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2017 Q3 2016
Class A Class B
3. Industrial statistics
Cincinnati | Q3 2016
JLL | Cincinnati | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
Inventory
(s.f.)
Quarterly
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(s.f.)
YTD
total net
absorption
(% of stock)
Total
vacancy
(% )
Total
availability
(% )
Average
total asking
rent
($ p.s.f.)
Quarterly
completions
(s.f.)
YTD
completions
(s.f.)
Under
construction
(s.f.)
Cincinnati totals
Warehouse & Distribution 165,970,366 1,076,804 3,456,625 2.1% 4.6% 7.5% $3.81 2,620,755 4,039,315 1,679,274
Manufacturing 68,997,056 241,731 746,618 1.1% 2.3% 3.0% $3.16 0 0 0
Totals 234,967,422 1,318,535 4,203,243 1.8% 4.2% 5.9% $3.71 2,620,755 4,039,315 1,679,274
Flex 11,533,092 33,872 265,555 2.3% 11.3% 13.6% $6.55 0 0 0
Airport
Warehouse & Distribution 26,517,972 37,771 1,372,656 5.2% 1.9% 6.1% $3.70 210,000 1,628,560 415,800
Manufacturing 2,147,532 0 32,000 1.5% 0.0% 2.6% $4.50 0 0 0
Totals 26,930,548 37,771 1,404,656 5.2% 1.7% 5.9% $3.73 210,000 1,628,560 415,800
Flex 1,114,751 209 4,701 0.4% 3.8% 7.5% $6.45 0 0 0
Blue Ash
Warehouse & Distribution 8,111,331 26,082 185,670 2.3% 0.9% 3.7% $3.72 0 0 534,560
Manufacturing 2,524,938 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% $3.00 0 0 0
Totals 10,636,269 26,082 185,670 1.7% 0.7% 3.8% $3.54 0 0 534,560
Flex 1,719,749 7,614 15,142 0.9% 7.3% 8.8% $7.38 0 0 0
Campbell County
Warehouse & Distribution 2,235,913 -12,000 -14,000 -0.6% 3.4% 3.4% $4.25 0 0 0
Manufacturing 1,045,402 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0 0 0
Totals 3,281,315 -12,000 -14,000 -0.4% 2.3% 2.3% $3.80 0 0 0
Flex 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0 0 0
Central / Midtown
Warehouse & Distribution 29,549,639 51,368 143,793 0.5% 4.2% 4.0% $4.19 0 0 0
Manufacturing 14,794,799 -64,000 75,200 0.5% 1.4% 2.5% $2.50 0 0 0
Totals 44,344,438 -12,632 218,993 0.5% 3.2% 3.5% $3.96 0 0 0
Flex 898,792 -1,371 17,087 1.9% 28.9% 31.8% $8.71 0 0 0
Covington
Warehouse & Distribution 3,176,777 12,250 7,250 0.2% 2.6% 7.1% $4.16 0 0 0
Manufacturing 779,862 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% $0.00 0 0 0
Totals 3,956,639 12,250 7,250 0.2% 2.1% 5.7% $4.16 0 0 0
Flex 20,000 0 0 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% $5.15 0 0 0
East
Warehouse & Distribution 5,650,289 0 -12,800 -0.2% 2.4% 3.5% $4.24 0 0 0
Manufacturing 5,487,999 0 153,367 2.8% 12.3% 16.6% $2.50 0 0 0
Totals 11,138,288 0 140,567 1.3% 7.3% 10.0% $3.46 0 0 0
Flex 1,188,181 0 29,402 2.5% 11.5% 14.5% $7.24 0 0 0
Florence / Richwood
Warehouse & Distribution 12,679,936 0 85,319 0.7% 12.9% 14.5% $3.61 1,116,804 1,116,804 0
Manufacturing 8,214,941 0 93,000 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% $3.36 0 0
Totals 20,894,877 0 178,319 0.9% 8.2% 9.2% $3.57 1,116,804 1,116,804 0
Flex 795,699 0 3,694 0.5% 5.8% 10.8% $3.91 0 0 0
Hamilton
Warehouse & Distribution 3,909,488 0 -14,146 -0.4% 19.3% 20.9% $2.81 0 0 0
Manufacturing 1,741,094 0 -129,560 -7.4% 7.4% 7.4% $2.25 0 0 0
Totals 5,650,582 0 -143,706 -2.5% 15.7% 16.7% $2.74 0 0 0
Flex 249,734 0 16,090 6.4% 11.4% 11.4% $6.60 0 0 0
I-71 Corridor
Warehouse & Distribution 5,085,348 298,700 482,503 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% $4.62 300,000 300,000 0
Manufacturing 4,911,416 216,000 216,000 6.0% 5.7% 5.7% $2.75 0 0 0
Totals 9,996,764 514,700 698,503 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% $3.11 300,000 300,000 0
Flex 518,639 0 16,090 3.1% 17.4% 17.4% $7.25 0 0 0
Monroe / Middletown
Warehouse & Distribution 11,315,921 9,855 331,848 2.9% 11.2% 13.2% $3.56 993,951 993,951 143,664
Manufacturing 6,976,617 0 0 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% $2.25 0 0 0
Totals 18,292,538 9,855 331,848 7.4% 8.6% 7.6% $3.47 993,951 993,951 143,664
Flex 46,900 0 6,881 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% $7.88 0 0 0
Tri-County
Warehouse & Distribution 45,827,425 798,538 1,090,390 2.4% 4.5% 6.3% $3.83 0 0 585,250
Manufacturing 9,107,941 89,731 226,231 2.5% 0.0% 1.2% $2.50 0 0 0
Totals 54,935,366 888,269 1,316,621 2.4% 3.7% 5.5% $3.63 0 0 585,250
Flex 4,087,159 36,095 164,568 4.0% 10.3% 14.6% $5.83 0 0 0
West
Warehouse & Distribution 4,139,072 -145,760 -179,932 -4.3% 5.3% 6.4% $3.85 0 0 0
Manufacturing 708,242 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 0 0 0
Totals 4,847,314 -145,760 -179,932 -3.7% 4.5% 5.5% $3.85 0 0 0
Flex 313,780 0 -18,400 -5.9% 14.3% 14.3% $6.81 0 0 0
Woodlawn / Evendale
Warehouse & Distribution 7,771,255 0 -21,926 -0.3% 3.6% 8.3% $3.43 0 0 0
Manufacturing 10,556,273 0 80,380 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% - 0 0 0
Totals 18,327,528 0 58,454 0.3% 1.5% 3.5% $3.43 0 0 0
Flex 579,708 -8,675 10,300 1.8% 10.7% 13.9% $4.65 0 0 0
4. This report analyzes all industrial developments under construction & new deliveries > 30,000 s.f.
Total leased at delivery (%) 34.9%
Total speculative at delivery (s.f.) 2,630,755
Total BTS at delivery (s.f.) 1,108,560
Total Owner-User at delivery (s.f.) 300,000
Total # of properties delivered 7
Asking rental rate (low - high) $3.75 - $3.85
Top 5 projects delivered to date
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Leased at
delivery (%)
Wayfair LogistiCenter at 275 898,560 Q2 2016 100%
Park 536 674,500 Q3 2016 0%
2125 Gateway Blvd 520,000 Q1 2016 100%
Park South at Richwood Bldg I 442,304 Q3 2016 0%
Masters Rx 300,000 Q2 2016 100%
Total pre-leased (%) 14.0%
Total speculative under construction (s.f.) 1,679,274
Total BTS under construction (s.f.) -
Total Owner-user under construction (s.f.) -
Total # of properties UC 6
Asking rental rate (low - high) $3.75 - $4.25
Top 5 projects currently under construction
Building RBA (s.f.) Delivery date
Pre-leased
(%)
10900 Kenwood Rd 534,560 Q1 2017 0%
Union Centre Industrial Park I 446,500 Q4 2016 53%
LogistiCenter at 275 #2 264,000 Q2 2017 0%
Airpark West #16 151,800 Q1 2017 0%
Park North Monroe Bldg 5 143,664 Q1 2017 0%Speculative
Speculative
Owner Construction type
Speculative
IDI Gazeley
Hemmer Construction
Dermody
Duke Realty
Citimark
Speculative
Speculative
Monroe / Middletown
Airport
Airport
Tri-County
Blue Ash
Historical deliveries (s.f.)
Construction typeOwnerSubmarket
West
Florence / Richwood
Airport
Florence / Richwood
Airport
Masters Pharma
IDI Gazeley
Prologis
Van Trust
Dermody
Owner-user
Speculative
New deliveries
Completions in-depth
4,039,315
Total delivered YTD (s.f.)
Speculative
Speculative
BTS
Submarket
Under construction
1,679,274
Under construction (s.f.)
Under construction in-depth
Upcoming deliveries by year (s.f., excludes YTD completions)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2016 2017
Speculative
Industrial Development Report
Cincinnati | Q3 2016
JLL | Cincinnati | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
5. Industry employment stratification: Cincinnati
Industrial Employment Update
Cincinnati | Q3 2016
4.9%U.S. unemployment
1.7%U.S. 12-month job growth
3.9%Cincinnati unemployment
1.9%Cincinnati 12-month job growth
4.8%Ohio unemployment
1.5%Ohio 12-month job growth
Employment vs. unemployment rate: Cincinnati
Job growth (12-month change): United States vs. Cincinnati
Job growth/loss by sector (12-month change): Cincinnati
Industrial employment trends (12-month change, 000s): Cincinnati
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Cincinnati United States
JLL | Cincinnati | Industrial Outlook | Q3 2016
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
780,000
840,000
900,000
960,000
1,020,000
1,080,000
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Nonfarm employment
Unemployment
-400
-200
1,300
1,700
1,800
2,000
2,500
3,300
3,400
4,000
-1,500 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,500
Information
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Government
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
Leisure & Hospitality
Educational & Health Services
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities,
194,100 , 18%
Professional &
Business Services,
177,200 , 17%
Government,
171,000 , 16%
Educational &
Health Services,
155,900 , 15%
Leisure & Hospitality,
104,700 , 10%
Financial Activities,
80,300 , 8%
Manufacturing,
72,700 , 7%
Other Services,
43,100 , 4%
Mining, Logging &
Construction,
37,700 , 3%
Information,
16,700 , 2%
-25.0
-15.0
-5.0
5.0
15.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade,Transportation & Utilities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Mining, Logging & Construction
6. Industrial Submarket Map
Notable construction projects
Airpark West #16
Signe tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 151,800
Landlord: Hemmer Construction
Park North Building 5
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 143,664
Landlord: IDI Gazeley
Union Centre Industrial Park 1
Signed tenant(s): Compucom
Square Feet: 446,500
Landlord: Duke Realty
10900 Kenwood Road
Signed tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 534,560
Landlord: Schuermann Properties
LogistiCenter at 275 #2
Signe tenant(s): none
Square Feet: 264,000
Landlord: Dermody Properties
7. For more information, please contact:
About JLL
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the firm provides management and real estate outsourcing services for a property portfolio of 3.4 billion square feet, or 316 million square meters, and
completed $118 billion in sales, acquisitions and finance transactions in 2014. Its investment management business, LaSalle Investment Management,
has $56.0 billion of real estate assets under management. JLL is the brand name, and a registered trademark, of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated. For
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COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2016
Andrew Batson
Vice President, Director of Research
+1 216 937 4374
Andrew.Batson@am.jll.com
Ross Bratcher
Research Analyst
+1 513 719 3706
Ross.Bratcher@am.jll.com