1. 9-1-1 Revenue Forecasting
Rolf Preuss, ENP, FPEM
9-1-1 Coordinator/Radio Systems Manager
Flagler County

2. 9-1-1 Revenue Forecasting
• Pretty simple
if you use the
right tools
• While times
may change …
• The basic tools
stay the same
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3. 3

4. What do we need
• Historic Collection Information
• Population Trends
• Industry Trends
• Economic Indicators
4

5. Historic Collection Information
DMS Website
5

6. Historic Collection Information
Obscure local sources
6

7. Population Trends
• Local News
• Planning Department
• Chamber of Commerce
• State and Federal Resources
7

8. Industry Trends
• Professional Trade Publications
• Professional Organizations
• Professional Networks
• Professional Networking Sites (i.e. LinkedIn)
• Specialized Internet News Sites
• Professional Blogs
8

9. Economic Indicators
• Local News
• Historic Information
• Trusted Statistics
9

10. Now that we have…
• Historic Collection Information 
• Population Trends 
• Industry Trends 
• Economic Indicators 
or simply:
• Area Specific Knowledge 
• Subject Specific Knowledge 
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11. … It is time to play with Spreadsheets
• Transfer collected data into Spreadsheets
• Continue to look for Trends
• Verify Trends with Information collected
• If a Trend is verified, extrapolate Future Values
or
• If no clear Trend, use Software Functionality
• Create Charts from entered information
• Use Software’s Regression Analysis Capabilities
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12. Non-Wireless RevenuesWireless RevenuesCombined Revenues
12

13. 0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
911 Revenues
Wireless
Wireless Revenues
13

14. 0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
911 Revenues
Wireless Non-Wireless
Wireless Revenues
Non-Wireless Revenues
14

15. $0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Wireless Non-Wireless
Combined Revenues
15

16. $0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Wireless Non-Wireless
Combined Revenues
So far, so good…
… Now we can
predict
Revenues
1. By Graph
or
2. By Math
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17. • R-Square, is known as the
Coefficient of determination.
• The R-square value is an
indicator of how well the
model fits the data and
represents the level of
accuracy of future data
predictions.
• An R-square close to 1.0
indicates that we have found
the best model for prediction
17

18. R² = 0.9297
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Linear (Combined)
≈ $560,000
Remember:
• The R-square value is an
indicator of how well the
model fits the data and
represents the level of
accuracy of future data
predictions.
• An R-square close to 1.0
indicates that we have found
the best model for prediction
Linear Trendline
18

19. R² = 0.9297
R² = 1
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Linear (Combined) Poly. (2008,2009)
≈ $505,000
Linear Trendline
(2008 and 2009 data ONLY)
19

20. R² = 0.9297 R² = 0.9372
R² = 1
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Linear (Combined) Poly. (Combined) Poly. (2008,2009)
≈ $530,000
Polynomial Trendline
20

21. R² = 0.9297
R² = 0.9372
R² = 1
R² = 0.976
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Linear (Combined) Poly. (Combined) Poly. (2008,2009) Linear (2002,03,04,05,08,09)
≈ $540,000
Linear Trendline
(2006 and 2007 data REMOVED)
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22. R² = 0.9297
R² = 0.9372
R² = 1
R² = 0.9999
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
911 Revenues
Combined Linear (Combined) Poly. (Combined) Poly. (2008,2009) Poly. (2002,03,04,05,08,09)
≈ $510,000
Polynomial Trendline
(2006 and 2007 data REMOVED)
Remember:
• The R-square value is an
indicator of how well the
model fits the data and
represents the level of
accuracy of future data
predictions.
• An R-square close to 1.0
indicates that we have found
the best model for prediction
22

23. Budget Worksheet
FY09/10 BUDGET BASED ON CURRENT REVENUE $456,764 Budget $484,500
PERSONNEL SERVICES $150,716
FY10/11 BUDGET BASED ON ESTIMATION $510,000
OPERATING EXPENSES $330,452
FY10/11 AFTER 5% STATUTORY REDUCTION $484,500 TOTAL RESERVE ACCOUNT $3,332
TOTAL SUPPLEMENTS $0
BALANCE $0
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24. We needed:
• Historic Information
• Population Trends
• Industry Trends
• Economic Indicators
and
• A Good Spreadsheet Program
(that will do the hard work for us)
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25. Rolf Preuss
386-569-2150
rpreuss@flaglercounty.org
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Questions ??
Thank you!

26. References
• Florida E911 / Public Safety Bureau/ Dept. of Management Services
http://www.dms.myflorida.com/suncom/public_safety_bureau/florida_e911
• Bureau of Economic and Business Research
- University of Florida
http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/start
• Florida Association of Counties
http://www.fl-counties.com/
• US Census Bureau
http://www.census.gov
• How to create a “Minion” Character
http://psd.tutsplus.com/tutorials/drawing/minion-despicable-me-photoshop/
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