April 3, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
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This COVID-19 impact tracker for automotive industry includes sales forecasts, OEM response, player response and supplier response.
![12020-04-03-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard-F (1).pptx
April 3, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
Situation summary OEM plant target re-open dates3)
Plant closures4)
> Sales forecast: IHS's latest forecast projects
14.5m vehicles sold in 2020 with COVID-19
having a 2.4m unit negative effect. This Apr
2nd projection is 0.9m vehicles below its Mar
19th estimate.
> Supply chain disruption: IHS indicates that
more than half of the Chinese plants have
resumed full capacity. North American
suppliers are gradually going into shutdown.
> OEM response: All OEMs have suspended
production in North America. Re-open dates
continue to be delayed, with Ford & GM
indefinitely suspending production in the US.
While no job cuts have yet been announced,
executives' pay is beginning to be cut (e.g.
Daimler) and furloughs may soon follow
(e.g., Ford).
> Supplier response: Suppliers have been
slower to fully or partially suspend US
manufacturing operations than OEM's. Many
are running at reduced capacity with OEM
demand halted but a gradual recovery in
demand from China. Many suppliers are
coming under pressure from the OEMs to
remain open and be able to ramp up
production on short notice.
> Government support: On March 28, Trump
signed the CARES Act relief package that
includes a payroll protection program for
small businesses, stimulus checks for
individuals as well as financial aid for big
corporations. For much smaller companies
support is also available through SBA loans
and Families First Coronavirus Response Act
(FFCRA) providing paid leave.
Permanent layoffs4)
Reduced indirect staff4)
Credit rating downgrades4)
US LV market [m vehicles]
% of suspended production capacity
(indicative)
% of companies announcing layoffs % of companies' credit rating downgraded6)
% of companies reducing indirect labor6)
Top 10 OEMs Top 30 Suppliers
Cash reserves4)
Dividend suspensions4)
% of companies suspending dividends
% of companies excessively drawing on
credit lines
AvgQ1
0.29
AvgQ2
AvgQ3
1.14
AvgQ4
Jan
Feb
Mar0.88
Apr
1.34
1.48
1.44
1.43
1.37
Inventory levels2)Vehicle sales1)
100%
46%
10%
24%
60%
47%
10%
14%
40%
14%
0%
13%
Shutdowns
announced
TBD /
Indefinite
Apr 12
Apr 6 Apr 13
Apr 14
Apr 20
Mar 18
2019 2020
4.03
3.58
AvgQ3
AvgQ1
Feb
AvgQ2
AvgQ4
3.94
Jan
3.64
3.57
3.45
2019 2020
ForecastActual Actual
Based on publicly announced actions
1) Source – Marklines; 2) Source – Wards Intelligence; 3) Source – Autonews; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020; 5) Includes furloughs
and reduced indirect work hours; 6) Per Moody's
Mar Apr
Apr 30](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2020-04-03-rb-auto-covid-19-tracker-dashboard-f-200417092502/85/april-3-2020-usa-automotive-industry-covid19-impact-tracker-1-320.jpg?cb=1587116178){kind=tracking}
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April 3, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker
- 1. 12020-04-03-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard-F (1).pptx April 3, 2020 USA Automotive Industry COVID-19 Impact Tracker Situation summary OEM plant target re-open dates3) Plant closures4) > Sales forecast: IHS's latest forecast projects 14.5m vehicles sold in 2020 with COVID-19 having a 2.4m unit negative effect. This Apr 2nd projection is 0.9m vehicles below its Mar 19th estimate. > Supply chain disruption: IHS indicates that more than half of the Chinese plants have resumed full capacity. North American suppliers are gradually going into shutdown. > OEM response: All OEMs have suspended production in North America. Re-open dates continue to be delayed, with Ford & GM indefinitely suspending production in the US. While no job cuts have yet been announced, executives' pay is beginning to be cut (e.g. Daimler) and furloughs may soon follow (e.g., Ford). > Supplier response: Suppliers have been slower to fully or partially suspend US manufacturing operations than OEM's. Many are running at reduced capacity with OEM demand halted but a gradual recovery in demand from China. Many suppliers are coming under pressure from the OEMs to remain open and be able to ramp up production on short notice. > Government support: On March 28, Trump signed the CARES Act relief package that includes a payroll protection program for small businesses, stimulus checks for individuals as well as financial aid for big corporations. For much smaller companies support is also available through SBA loans and Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) providing paid leave. Permanent layoffs4) Reduced indirect staff4) Credit rating downgrades4) US LV market [m vehicles] % of suspended production capacity (indicative) % of companies announcing layoffs % of companies' credit rating downgraded6) % of companies reducing indirect labor6) Top 10 OEMs Top 30 Suppliers Cash reserves4) Dividend suspensions4) % of companies suspending dividends % of companies excessively drawing on credit lines AvgQ1 0.29 AvgQ2 AvgQ3 1.14 AvgQ4 Jan Feb Mar0.88 Apr 1.34 1.48 1.44 1.43 1.37 Inventory levels2)Vehicle sales1) 100% 46% 10% 24% 60% 47% 10% 14% 40% 14% 0% 13% Shutdowns announced TBD / Indefinite Apr 12 Apr 6 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 20 Mar 18 2019 2020 4.03 3.58 AvgQ3 AvgQ1 Feb AvgQ2 AvgQ4 3.94 Jan 3.64 3.57 3.45 2019 2020 ForecastActual Actual Based on publicly announced actions 1) Source – Marklines; 2) Source – Wards Intelligence; 3) Source – Autonews; 4) Since Mar 1, 2020; 5) Includes furloughs and reduced indirect work hours; 6) Per Moody's Mar Apr Apr 30
- 2. 22020-04-03-RB-Auto-COVID-19-Tracker-Dashboard-F (1).pptx Our service offerings 1 2 Now 3 Now 4 Now 5 April/ May 6 May+ Ensure health of staff & identify vulnerabilities Ramp down or shut down operations Deploy short term liquidity measures Secure fundingand government aid Prepare efficient re-start after crisis Emerge stronger by improving performance and capitalizing on strategic opportunities Establish a crisis response center to monitor and coordinate across all priority areas Timeframe Action already taken by most companies Effective Hibernation Cash Office Government Support Effective Ramp-Up Momentum Boost Control Room 360° Check-Up Dependingon scenario Now There are six key priority areas for automotive executives and most already need to be addressed at this point in the crisis 1 2 3 4 5 6 ! Priorities Dependingon financialposition