1. Iranian Situation of Concern

2. GENOCIDE IS PREVENTABLE.

3. Why the Iranian Bahá'ís?
• Multiple periods of historic persecution in varying degrees (I.e. Pahlavi vs
Safavid)
• Geo-strategic concern from the Int’l community historically (Russia)
• Domestically distorted history, origins and ties. (I.e. Israel)
• The highest persecuted minority group in Iran.
• The existence and threat of the Bahá'ís has been through national security terms
• Bahá'ís are not recognized religious minorities or citizens. Through this
loophole, the Iranian regime attempts to dodge international criticism on
human rights. Attesting that Iran respects its “citizens” but does not support
“cults”
• 12th Imam incongruence with Islam.
• Internationally, the looming nuclear threat of Iran has dominated media, and
agenda setting regarding Iran institutionally.
•

4. Threat of Genocide?
• Triggers Identified. (Foreign attack, growing inequality)
• Threat Assessment pending.
• Frequency and typology of Operating Process Indicators by region and by time
(month) are being collected and assessed via incident indexes.
0 5 10 15 20
Dehumanization
Polarization
Polarization
Dehumanization
Polarization
Polarization
Release on Bail
Polarization
Classificaton
Polarization
Dehumanization
Polarization
Isfahan
Rafs
anja
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Mashha
dShirazTehranTabriz
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Series1

5. Undocumented Elements
• Iran Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC)
• Iranian “Cyber Army”
• Ministry of Intelligence
Potential Victims
• Bahá'ís and Bahá'í
Sympathizers
• Other religious/ethic
minorities
• Human Rights Activists
Outside Parties
• Shabiha (Syria) (May Report)
• China,
• Russia
Main Players in the Iranian SOC
Documented Elements (See Supplementary
Report)
• Basij Militia
• Hojjatieh
• Ansar i Hizbullah
Threats
• Plausible Deniability
• Impunity
• Vast Resources
Leverage Points
• Internecine conflicts
• Philosophical differences.
• Dwindling faith in the regime

6. Findings to Date.
• Technological Updates (National Internet Network)
• “Highest” Operating Process Indicator to date (recently)
Organization/Preparation (I.e. Kata Village)
• Argument for Politicide.
• Bahá'í leadership targeted,
• Expulsion patterns > Demoralization
Moving Forward
• Soft System’s Methodology (Paul Checkland) CATWOE
• Customer, Actors, Transformation, Worldview, Owner Environment
• Targeting domestic “Friendlies”
• Finding surveillance “Blindspots”
• Assessing accelerants and De-accelerants. (positive and negative factors)
• Creating ties, I.e. MIGS, informants, etc.
• Dipity / Mid East Youth Bahá'í Persecution Timeline (1979-2009)

7. Relevant Reading on the Iranian Bahá'ís
• Supplementary Report on the threat of genocide to the Iranian Bahá'ís (Dropbox)
• Preliminary Report on the Threat of Genocide to the Iranian Bahá'ís (Dropbox)
• The Specter of Ideological Genocide: The Bahá'ís of Iran War Crimes, Genocide
& Crimes against Humanity