4. Foreword
Seven billion people will inhabit the earth on 31 October. During my lifetime,
I have seen world population nearly triple. And 13 years from now, I will see
another billion added to our numbers. In my grandchildren’s lifetimes, there could
be as many as 10 billion people in our world.
How did we become so many? How large a communities to make the most of our world
number can our Earth sustain? of 7 billion.
These are important questions, but per- Some of the trends are remarkable: Today,
haps not the right ones for our times. When there are 893 million people over the age of
we look only at the big number, we risk being 60 worldwide. By the middle of this century
overwhelmed and losing sight of new opportu- that number will rise to 2.4 billion. About one
nities to make life better for everyone in in two people lives in a city, and in only about
the future. 35 years, two out of three will. People under
So instead of asking questions like, “Are the age of 25 already make up 43 per cent of
we too many?” we should instead be asking, the world’s population, reaching as much as
“What can I do to make our world better?” 60 per cent in some countries.
or, “What can we do to transform our grow- This report provides a snapshot of how
ing cities into forces for sustainability?” We China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, India,
should also ask ourselves what each of us Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria, and the former
can do to empower the elderly so they can Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are facing
play a more active role in their communities. diverse demographic challenges, ranging from
What can we do to unleash the creativity and ageing populations to high fertility rates, and
potential of the largest youth cohort human- from urbanization to the emergence of new
ity has ever seen? And what can we do to generations of young people. Some of these
remove barriers to equality between women countries are coping with high fertility rates
and men so that everyone has the full power and others are facing rates so low that govern-
to make their own decisions and realize their ments are already looking for ways to increase
full potential? population size. Some countries with labour
The State of World Population 2011 shortages are looking to migrants to fill jobs,
looks at the trends—the dynamics—that are while others are relying on the remittances sent
defining our world of 7 billion and shows back home by citizens working overseas to buoy
what people in vastly different countries their economies. And while some countries are
and circumstances are doing in their own attracting more people to emerging mega-cities
ii FORE WORD
8. family members behind, sometimes without These trends are sometimes obscured in
the support they need to carry out their daily discussions about population size, yet it is
lives. In some of the richer countries, smaller only when scrutinizing them that many of
numbers of young people mean uncertainty the immediate challenges and opportunities
about who will care for the old in future years become apparent.
and pay for the benefits seniors enjoy. China’s Shaanxi province, for example, is
Each of the countries featured in the looking for ways to shelter and support grow-
report is seeing in their specific popula- ing numbers of older people. In a mega-city
tion trends, such as urbanization, longer life such as Lagos, Nigeria, planners are trying to
expectancies and rapidly expanding working- redevelop neighbourhoods and create more
age populations, not only big challenges but cohesive, manageable and livable communities.
also enormous opportunities to seize these In Mexico City, people-friendly parks, roadside
804
moments and turn them into good news. green spaces and more public transportation
Years when world population reached increments of 1 billion
10 Billion
The rapid growth of the world population is a recent phenomenon. About 2,000 years
ago, the population of the world was about 300 million. It took more than 1,600 years for
9 Billion
the world population to double to 600 million. The rapid growth of the world population
started in 1950, with reductions in mortality in the less developed regions, resulting in an
8 Billion
estimated population of 6.1 billion in the year 2000, nearly two-and-a-half times the popu-
7 Billion lation in 1950. With the declines in fertility in most of the world, the global growth rate of
population has been decreasing since its peak of 2.0 per cent in 1965-1970.
6 Billion
Source: Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
5 Billion
4 Billion
3
3 Billion 2 1959
1
1927
2 Billion
1804
1 Billion
YEARS TO ADD 1 BILLION PEOPLE 123 32 15
1800 1850 1900 1950
2 CHAP T ER 1 : a closer loo k at our world of 7 billion
9. are priorities in the quest to make urban life Governments can usher in urban growth
healthier and more sustainable. that boosts economies and creates jobs while
Nations like the former Yugoslav using energy more efficiently and making
Republic of Macedonia and Finland, where social services available to more people.
fertility is lower and childbearing later than People under 25 make up 43 per cent of
in most other parts of the world, are look- the world’s population. When young people
ing for ways to support women who have can claim their rights to health, education and
more children. Nations like Ethiopia and decent working conditions, they become a
India have launched campaigns to end child powerful force for economic development
marriages and prevent life-threatening and positive change. Throughout the
adolescent pregnancies. developing world, social scientists and
Cities are growing almost everywhere. policymakers want to make the most of
With good planning and thoughtful policies, large youthful populations, for the sake of
hopeful young people themselves as well
as in the interests of economic growth and
development. Yet this opportunity of a
“demographic dividend” is a fleeting moment
that must be claimed quickly or lost.
In the poorest countries, extreme pov-
erty, food insecurity, inequality, high death
rates and high birth rates are linked in a
7 vicious cycle. Reducing poverty by invest-
ing in health and education, especially for
6
2011 women and girls, can break this cycle. As liv-
ing conditions improve, parents can feel more
5 1999 confident that most of their children will
survive. Many then choose to have smaller
4
1974
1987 families. This allows for greater investment
in each child’s health care and education,
improved productivity and better long-term
prospects—for the family and for the country.
Celebrating achievements,
planning for the future
There is much to celebrate in world popula-
tion trends over the last 60 years, especially
the average life expectancy, which leapt from
about 48 years in the early 1950s to about
13 12 12
68 in the first decade of the new century.
Infant mortality plunged from about 133
2000 2050
T H E STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 1 3
10. deaths in 1,000 births in the 1950s to 46 fertility rate was about 6.7 children, while 61
per 1,000 in the period from 2005 to 2010. years later it dropped to 2.6, a half percent-
Immunization campaigns reduced the preva- age point above the population “replacement
lence of childhood diseases worldwide. level” of 2.1 children, one of them a girl. In
In addition, fertility, the number of chil- East Asia the total fertility rate in 1950 was
dren a woman is expected to have in her about 6 children per woman and today is
reproductive years, dropped by more than 1.6, well below replacement level. In some
half, from about 6.0 to 2.5, partly because of parts of Africa, however, there has been only
countries’ economic growth and development a modest drop in total fertility, which today
but also because of a complex mix of social remains at more than 5 children per woman.
and cultural forces and greater access by But despite global fertility declines, about
women to education, income-earning oppor- 80 million people are added to the world
tunities and sexual and reproductive health each year, a number roughly equivalent to
services, including modern methods the population of Germany or Ethiopia.
of contraception. Considerable population growth continues
In some regions, the total fertility rate today because of the high numbers of births
declined drastically between 1950 and today. in the 1950s and 1960s, which have resulted
In Central America, for example, the total in larger base populations with millions of
young people reaching their reproductive
years over succeeding generations.
China and India: the billionaires The Population Division of the United
China and India recently released the findings of their latest censuses, Nations Department of Economic and Social
giving the world a glimpse of how these two population behemoths are Affairs, in its World Population Prospects: The
realigning in numbers and rates of growth. Below are the two countries 2010 Revision (published in May 2011) fore-
in numbers, using official figures or United Nations projections.
sees a global population of 9.3 billion people
According to projections by the Population Division of the United
at 2050, an increase over earlier estimates,
Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2025, India, with
1.46 billion people, will have overtaken China, with 1.39 billion, as the and more than 10 billion by the end of this
world’s most populous nation. China’s population will then, based on a century—and that scenario assumes lower
medium variant, decline to about 1.3 billion by 2050. India will continue to fertility rates over time. With only a small
grow to about 1.7 billion by 2060 before beginning to decline.
variation in fertility, particularly in the more
populous countries, the total could be higher:
China India
10.6 billion people could be living on Earth
Total population, 2011 1.35 billion 1.24 billion by 2050 and more than 15 billion in 2100,
the Population Division estimates. “Much
Increase 2001–2011 69.7 million 170.1 million
of this increase is expected to come from the
Fertility rate 1.6 2.5 high-fertility countries, which comprise 39 in
Africa, nine in Asia, six in Oceania and four in
Year population likely to stabilize 2025 2060 Latin America,” the United Nations reports.
Source: Population Division of the United Nations Department of
According to John Cleland of the London
Economic and Social Affairs. School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
4 CHAP T ER 1 : a closer loo k at our world of 7 billion
11. an international expert on reproductive “Clearly we are living through an extraor-
issues in Africa, sub-Saharan Africa is “the dinary period in human history, an era of
one remaining region of the world where unprecedented growth in our species,” says
the population is set to double or treble in Steven Sinding, who has observed popula-
the next 40 years.” The reason for demog tion trends over the years as director of the
raphers’ increasing focus on the region is office of population at the United States
clear, he said: “The escape from poverty Agency for International Development,
and hunger is made more difficult by rapid professor of population and family health
population growth.” at Columbia University and director-general
Estimated and projected population by major area,
medium variant, 1950-2100 (billions)
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
billions
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Asia Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Europe Northern America Oceania
Asia will remain the most populous expected to add another billion in just and Oceania) amount to 1.7 billion in 2011
major area in the world during the 21st 35 years (by 2044), even as its fertil- and are projected to rise to nearly 2 bil-
century but Africa will gain ground as ity drops from 4.6 children per woman in lion in 2060 and then decline very slowly,
its population more than triples, passing 2005-2010 to 3.0 children per woman in remaining still near 2 billion by the turn
from 1 billion in 2011 to 3.6 billion in 2100. 2040-2045. of the century. Among the regions, the
In 2011, 60 per cent of the world pop- Asia's population, which is currently population of Europe is projected to peak
ulation lived in Asia and 15 per cent in 4.2 billion, is expected to peak around the around 2025 at 0.74 billion and decline
Africa. Africa’s population has been grow- middle of the century (it is projected to thereafter.
ing 2.3 per cent per year, a rate more than reach 5.2 billion in 2052) and to start a
double that of Asia's population (1 per slow decline thereafter. Source: Population Division of the
cent per year). The population of Africa The populations of all other major United Nations Department of Economic
first surpassed a billion in 2009 and is areas combined (the Americas, Europe and Social Affairs.
T HE STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 1 5
20. Olalekan Azeez-Iginla, Lagos state coor- have not had significant input into policy-
dinator of the National Youth Network on making and governance. He keeps a directory
HIV-AIDS, Population and Development, of qualified youth who “want to help plan
is already working on the employment issue. the future they will be part of.” His goal is to
He says that until recently, young people ask the governor of Lagos, a state as well as a
city, to find or create jobs for up to a million
qualified young people.
Youth labour force participation
rate, by region and sex, 2010 Many young people having
smaller families
Labour force participation rates for young women are lower than for
Today’s young women and men—a large
young men in all regions except East Asia, mainly reflecting differing
number of them still adolescents in least
cultural traditions and the lack of opportunities for women to com-
bine work and family responsibilities not only in the developing world developed countries—are demanding better
but also in the industrialized world. In many regions, gender gaps in education, good health care and ultimately
youth participation rates have narrowed over the past decade, but jobs to support themselves and their fami-
they remain large in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. In
lies. In many countries of the global North,
the latter region, the female participation rate decreased faster than
young women and men are marrying later
the male rate, actually increasing the gender gap.
and having fewer children, and the same
trend is emerging, if slowly, in many devel-
Total % Male % Female %
oping nations. The trend is linked not only
World 50.9 58.9 42.4
to improved education and jobs, but also
Developed Economies 50.2 52.6 47.7 to unfettered access to reproductive health,
and European Union including contraceptives.
Central and South- 41.7 47.7 35.5 In Ethiopia, a low-income country with
Eastern Europe 39 per cent of its 82.9 million people liv-
(non-European Union) ing below the international poverty line of
and the CIS
$1.25 a day, according to the World Bank,
East Asia 59.2 57.0 61.6 hardship rather than rising expectations and
South-East Asia and the 51.3 59.1 43.3 better living standards may be the major fac-
Pacific tor in motivating young women and men
South Asia 46.5 64.3 27.3
in cities when family choices are made.
Assefa Hailemariam, the former director of
Latin America and the 52.1 61.3 42.7
the Population Studies and Research Centre
Caribbean
at Addis Ababa University’s Institute of
Middle East 36.3 50.3 21.5
Development Studies, said that young urban-
North Africa 37.9 52.5 22.9 ites are bringing fertility rates down very fast
Sub-Saharan Africa 57.5 62.7 52.2
for economic reasons.
“Urban life is demanding,” Hailemariam
said. “You can’t count on relatives to look
Source: Global Employment Trends for Youth. International Labour Organization after your kids. You can’t have too many—
14 CHAP T ER 2 : Youth : A New Global P ower Reshaping the World
23. child health and reducing HIV and AIDS,” In Mozambique, the balance of power in a
the Population Reference Bureau survey relationship in favour of the man is tipped even
says. It adds that because young girls are further by early marriage, which also chips away
often married to older men who may have at a young woman’s right to determine her own
had numerous sexual partners, their chances reproductive destiny and often resulting in early
of HIV infection are greater than those of and numerous pregnancies. A young woman’s
unmarried sexually active girls. decision-making power may be additionally
Forcing a child into marriage for any rea- diluted in polygamous settings, in which about
son is a violation of the Convention on the one in four Mozambican women is involved.
Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination According to a study by Mozambique’s
Against Women and the Convention on National Statistics Institute, more than half
the Rights of the Child. Gender inequal- of women between ages 20 and 49 say they
ity is an underlying cause of child marriage, were married before the age of 18, and about
says UNFPA gender expert Gayle Nelson. one in five say they married before age 15.
“And without addressing this issue, it will be In Mozambique as in many other countries,
impossible to eradicate this or other discrimi- early marriage is more common among girls
natory harmful practices.” with little or no formal education.
Countries with high adolescent birth rates are concentrated in
sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean
100+
50 < 100
20 < 50
<20
No data since 2000
Adolescent birth rates by country, most recent estimates The designations employed do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of
(Number of births per 1,000 women aged 15-19) UNFPA concerning the legal status of any country, territory, area or its authorities, or
the delimitation of frontiers or boundaries. The dotted line represents approximately
Source: Population Division of the United Nations Department of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The
Economic and Social Affairs. final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties.
T HE STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 1 17
25. There is no youth centre where Amsalu in giving young people a role and a stake in
Buke, the peripatetic Ethiopian health worker, national programmes that matter to every-
makes her rounds near Debre Tseige, south- one, regardless of age.
east of the capital. But her cheerful, youthful In some primary care health posts, Fisseha
presence makes her approachable to young said, solar-powered DVD players are installed,
women with questions about reproductive with videos on various health, nutrition and
health as well as older women seeking contra- lifestyle issues. “The DVDs are meant to be
ceptives or anyone who needs something to kept on when patients come,” he said. “The
cure a stomach upset, diarrhea or a headache. community owns the system, and civil society
She vaccinates village people, keeping track has the privilege of using it.” A DVD player
meticulously on her home-made wall chart of has not yet come to her health post
every inoculation given to prevent meningitis, in Debre Tseige, but Amsalu has placed
tetanus, polio and tuberculosis. prominently on her desk a drawing of a
The Tare Giorgis health post, Amsalu’s woman receiving an injectable contraceptive,
base, has no running water or electricity. a widely requested method of contraception
Vaccines are stored in a small, generator- in sub-Saharan Africa.
powered refrigerator given to her by
UNICEF in one cramped room of the three-
"The bride’s young age, often
room clinic built of mud and straw. The
main room has space for only a desk and a combined with the older age of her
few chairs. Beside it is the maternity room,
just big enough for an examination table
partner, intensifies power differentials
equipped for birth deliveries and a small side in the relationship."
table for basins and basic medical instru-
ments. Amsalu also delivers babies in homes,
reaching villages by foot, horse or donkey— Amsalu, who has a young assistant to help
unless she is lucky enough to hitch a ride on keep records and make the rounds of villages,
a passing vehicle when she gets to a road. has only a secondary school education and a
Amsalu Buke is one of more than 37,000 year of primary health-care training, includ-
health extension workers positioned around ing instructions needed to become a midwife.
the country is recent years, according to Her monthly net income is 570 Ethiopian
Fisseha Mekonnen, executive director of the birr (about $34).
Family Guidance Association of Ethiopia, Fisseha said that there are plans to
which is working with the Government to upgrade the education and training of health
improve health and expand access to family extension workers, at least to professional
planning in rural areas and nursing services paramedic level. In the meantime, he said,
in cities. The corps of health extension work- “We feel they are doing their level best.”
ers, many of them very young, is viewed as They know when more expert help is needed,
a basic model for other developing nations and are expected to send patients to hospitals
with scant health coverage; it is also a model at the first signs of serious illness. Amsalu,
T H E STAT E OF WORL D POPU L AT ION 20 1 1 19