Vivek Tulpule Analyst Roundtable April 2010
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Vivek Tulpule Analyst roundtable, London, April 2010
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Vivek Tulpule Analyst Roundtable April 2010
- 1. Vivek Tulpule Chief economist April 2010
- 3. Spot price indices (1 January 2005 = 100) Market size changes in 2009 (%chg y-o-y) Chinese demand key to H2 2009 price recovery Ex-China global China
- 5. Stronger macro forecasts, but from very low base IP Indices (Q1 2008 = 100) Consensus IP Growth Forecast (y-o-y %chg) Metal-weighted world IP World OECD 2008 2009 2010 2011 Non-OECD world OECD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
- 6. Source: National bureau statistics of China Overview of Chinese economy 2008 2009 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 GDP % 9.6 8.7 / / / Industrial value added (IVA) % 12.9 11 18.5 20.7 (Jan&Feb) Urban FAI % -YTD 26.1 30.5 30.5 26.6 (Jan&Feb) M2 % 17.8 27.7 / 26.0 25.5 Exports % 17.2 -16 17.7 21.1 45.7 Imports % 18.5 -11.2 55.9 85.5 44.7 FDI (USD Bn) 92.4 90 90 8.1 14.0 CPI % 5.9 -0.7 1.9 1.5 2.7 Total retail sales % 19 .0 15.5 17.5 13.7 22.1 Total retail sales (Real) % 17.4 16.9 / 11.7 19.1 FX reserves (USD trn) 1.946 / 2.39 / /
- 8. Source: National bureau statistics of China, PBoC Policy continuity and gradual exit
- 9. Abundant liquidity still in place Source: National bureau statistics of China
- 10. Housing demand jumps but supply lags Sourc e: National Bureau of Statistics of China, CEIC
- 11. Chinese steel production and consumption
- 12. The steepness of the cost curve affects price volatility 6 Apr 2010
- 13. A very significant flow of funds into commodities 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 Inflows into Commodities $bn ETPs + MTNs Index Swaps Base ($6.9bn) Softs ($14.5bn) Precious ($20.1bn) Energy ($27.6bn) 500 7,500 14,500 21,500 28,500 Inflows into different commodity sectors, by different modes of investment 2009 ETP Index MTN Source: BarCap Source: BarCap 2001 2000 2002 2004 2003 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009
- 15. China’s urban-rural income gap widens Source: National bureau statistics of China
Hinweis der Redaktion
- In the OECD Industrial production recovered sharply in 4Q09. The Latest PMI indices indicate output is still strong in the new year. But the issue is whether the recovery reflects and improvement in underlyiing demand, or the eventually end of the prolonged stocking cycle that characterised last year, and the return of some re-stocking. Initial data warns that it could be the latter. In the US car sales fell m/m in January and Home sales also crashed. The Unemployment figure also suffered a major transition upwards.
- Some figures are only available as combined Jan & Feb data in the column named as Jan-Feb 2009 , other figures are available as monthly data in this column are written in a separate way.
- Exit might be gradual Loan growth moderated FAI holds up at high level
- Ample liquidity still in place To be supportive for growth At same time, inflation pressure is piling up M1 growth outpacing M2 growth