The document summarizes the results of an expert survey on the situation and prospects for restoring the Donbas region of Ukraine. Some key findings: - Over half of experts believe negotiations are needed to resolve the conflict, while about a third support continued military action. - Experts see the presidents of Ukraine, Russia, and EU/US leaders as the main decision-makers who can influence the situation. - Most experts think the conflict can only be resolved through cooperation between involved parties. - Returning to the pre-conflict status quo has the most support as a political solution.

1. Evaluation by Donbas expert
community of the situation in the
region and prospects of its
restoration
Jury of opinion
Community initiative «Restoring Donbas»
February, 2015

2. INFORMATION ABOUT THE RESEARCH
METHOD
RESEARCH SCHEDULE
SAMPLING
Extra-mural expert survey (online-interrogation)
From 27.12.2014 until 31.01.2015
400 representatives of expert community of Donetsk and Luhansk
regions: volunteers, public figures, journalists, entrepreneurs,
professionals in production sector and heads of enterprises.
Experts (participants of the survey) are the residents of the
following areas:
- ATO area;
- Donetsk and Luhansk regions (except ATO area);
- other regions of Ukraine (except Crimea);
- Kiev;
- Crimea;
- outside Ukraine.
Evaluation by expert community of Donbas of the
situation in the region and prospects of its
restoration
2

3. CONTENTS
MAJOR FINDINGS 4
POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS 7
EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION 12
PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS 14
OPTIMAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN RESPECT OF DONBAS 15
PERSPECTIVE SPHERES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS 16
DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES 17
SUPPORT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESS IN DONBAS 18
DEMAND FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE 19
READINESS OF DONBAS BUSINESS TO ASSIST RESIDENTS OF ATO AREA AND IDPs 20
READINESS OF EXPERTS TO PARTICIPATE IN RESTORING OF DONBAS 21
DEMAND FOR INFORMATION SERVICES 22
SYSTEM OF VALUES OF DONBAS RESIDENTS 23
3

4. MAJOR FINDINGS
• More than half of the expert respondents (52,3%) state that continuation of the negotiation
process is the necessary condition for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. About
34,9% of experts support continuation of armed hostilities. At the same time, only 12,8% of
respondents support granting the right of self-determination to territories where the ATO is
being conducted, as a course of action to resolve the conflict.
• Majority of experts, who recognize that the conflict in the East of Ukraine can not be resolved
unilaterally, consider resolution of the conflict in Donbas to be a result of interaction of the
parties involved. Thus, 73% of respondents identify two or more key decision-makers,
capable to resolve the conflict or to improve the situation in Donbas.
• Experts believe that the main decision-makers, who are capable of changing things in
Donbas, are President of Ukraine (53,1%), leaders of the EU and the US (46,3%), President of
Russia (41,6%). This indicates experts’ impression of a high degree of personalization of
responsibility for what is happening in Donbas, focus on specific individuals and their
statements.
• Leaders of self-proclaimed "republics", regional elite and lawmakers in Verkhovna Rada of
Ukraine are considered by experts to be subjects of decision-making to a much lesser extent
– 7,7%, 15,6% and 18,9%, respectively. This indicates a crisis of representation of interests of
Donbas residents both at regional and all-Ukrainian levels. Most experts (27,7%) identify
residents of the ATO area themselves as a subject of conflict resolution.
4

5. MAJOR FINDINGS
• Whereas a political solution of the conflict, most of the surveyed experts (56,2%) see in the
returning to status-quo – preservation of Ukrainian state integrity and provision of Donetsk
and Luhansk regions with the same conditions as for other regions of Ukraine. 31,8% of
respondents believe that creation of autonomy within Ukraine is an acceptable political
solution. Possibility of recognition of independence of the territories, where the ATO is being
conducted, has meager support among the experts. Only 7,9% of the interviewed experts
support this option. 4,1% of the respondents support affiliation of territories in conflict to the
Russian Federation.
• Under conditions of military actions and economic blockade of territories in conflict, experts
identify critical situation in financial sector and high degree of damage to production facilities
(7,8 and 7,7 points out of 10, respectively) to be among the most important problems of
Donbas economy. In addition, according to respondents, the lack of innovative developments
(7,2 points) and unsatisfactory condition of transport communications (7 points) are rather
significant problems for the region. Issues of the condition of raw materials base, condition
of recreation and services and personnel training potential were named by experts as the
least problematic for the region.
• Experts, in their opinion, associate the prospects for recovery of Donbas economy with 5 key
economic sectors for the region : metallurgy, coal industry, small and medium enterprises in
industrial sector, agricultural sector, innovative technology and communication services.
More than half of the experts mark out the development of entrepreneurship and innovation
among the priorities.
5

6. MAJOR FINDINGS
• In the aspect of focus on sectors of economy, traditional for Donbas (metallurgy and coal
mining), experts, support ideas of new economic approaches in development of the region.
In particular, respondents believe that after the end of military actions it is necessary to
create an innovative industrial area in Donbas (27%), pay attention to restoration of the
banking sector (26%) and to introduce tax holiday for small and medium-sized business
(25%).
• According to experts, development of small and medium-sized businesses in the industrial
sector is placed among the top 3 priority sectors. Experts attributed non-production sector of
the economy - transportation, services sphere and tourism to the secondary priorities.
• With regard to support of the of small and medium-sized business development, Donbas
experts pointed out the necessity of provision of concessional loans to entrepreneurs
(62,8%), conducting meetings and training sessions for entrepreneurs (60,7%), introduction
of the "tax holidays" regime (58,4%). Furthermore, experts who live in the ATO area, consider
tax measures to be a priority : introduction of tax holidays (70%) and exemption from taxes
and fines (41,7%).
• According to experts, the most demanded humanitarian assistance for both, residents of the
ATO area, residents of Donbas territories controlled by Ukraine, and IDPs is medicine.
According to experts, it is also very important for the ATO area residents to obtain essential
food products, baby (infant) food and personal care products. In addition to humanitarian
assistance, the ATO area residents and IDPs require provision of information services.
6

7. POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
More than half of the expert respondents (52,3%) state that continuation of the negotiation
process is the necessary condition for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. 34,9% support
continuation of armed hostilities. At the same time, only 12,8% of respondents support granting
the right of self-determination to territories where the ATO is being conducted, as a course of
action to resolve the conflict.
34,9%
12,8%
52,3%
What actions should be taken by Ukrainian side in order to resolve the conflict in Donetsk
and Luhansk regions?
Negotiation process
Continuation of armed hostilities
Granting the right of self-determination
7

8. POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
The negotiation process in order to resolve the conflict is being supported by the majority of
experts, who are the residents of the ATO area (69,8%), Crimea (66,7%) and Kiev (51,6%).
Respondents, who love in territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Ukraine
(42,9%) and in other regions of Ukraine (45,7%) stand for continuation of military actions.
37,5% 46,9% 49,6% 51,6%
66,7% 69,8%
41,7%
10,2% 4,7%
15,4%
33,3%
15,1%
20,8%
42,9% 45,7%
33%
15,1%
Outside Ukraine Donetsk and
Luhansk regions
(controlled by
Ukraine)
other regions of
Ukraine
Kiev Crimea ATO area
What actions should be taken by Ukrainian side in order to resolve the conflict in
Donbas?
(answers from regional perspective)
Negotiation process
Granting the right of self-determination
Continuation of armed hostilities 8

9. POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
53,1% of respondents impose responsibility for resolution of the conflict and improvement of the
situation in Donbas upon the President of Ukraine. Among the main decision-makers, who are
capable of changing things in Donbas, experts also single out leaders of the EU and the US
(46,3%) and President of Russia (41,6%). This indicates experts’ impression of a high degree of
personalization of responsibility for what is happening in Donbas, focus on specific individuals
and their statements.
46.3% of respondents mark out Armed Forces of Ukraine as a subject of conflict resolution,
41,9% - Government of Ukraine.
53,1%
46,3% 46,3%
41,9% 41,6%
President of Ukraine Leaders of the EU and
the US
Armed Forces of Ukraine Government of Ukraine President of Russia
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the situation
in Donbas?
(several different options to choose from)
9

10. POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
7,7%
15,6%
18,9%
22,9%
27,7%
Leaders of
"LNR"/"DNR"
Regional elites Verkhovna Rada of
Ukraine
International
organizations
Residents of the ATO
area
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the
situation in Donbas?
(several different options to choose from)
Some experts consider that leaders of the self-proclaimed "LNR" and "DNR" (7,7%), regional
elites (15,6%), Verkhovna Rada (18,9%), international organizations (22,9%) and ordinary citizens
of the ATO area (27,7%) are the subjects that may influence on the resolution of the conflict.
Undervaluation by experts of leverage of the leaders of self-proclaimed "republics", regional elite
and Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine lawmakers indicates a crisis of representation of interests of
Donbas residents both at regional and all-Ukrainian levels. In this situation, majority of experts
(27,7%) identify residents of the ATO area themselves as a subject of conflict resolution.
According to experts, international organizations (UN, NATO, OSCE, EU, PACE, G7, Red Cross), can
also influence on the situation to a greater extent than the regional elites and leaders of the self-
proclaimed "republics". 22,9% of the respondents included international organizations into the list
of subjects that are able to resolve the conflict. 10

11. POLITICAL SOLUTION TO CONFLICT IN DONBAS
73% of respondents identify two or more key decision-makers, who are capable of resolving the
conflict or improving the situation in Donbas. Thus, majority of experts consider resolution of the
conflict in Donbas to be a result of interaction of the parties involved, recognizing that the conflict
in the East of Ukraine can not be resolved unilaterally.
73%
21%
6%
Two and more subjects One subject No answer
Who, in your opinion, is capable of resolving the conflict and improving the
situation in Donbas?
(variation of answers)
11

12. EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
Whereas a political solution of the conflict, most of the surveyed experts (56,2%) see in the
returning to status-quo – preservation of Ukrainian state integrity and provision of Donetsk and
Luhansk regions with the same conditions as for other regions of Ukraine. 31,8% of respondents
believe that creation of autonomy within Ukraine is an acceptable political solution.
Possibility of recognition of independence of the territories, where the ATO is being conducted, has
meager support among the experts. Only 7,9% of the interviewed experts support this option.
4,1% of the respondents support affiliation of territories in conflict to the Russian Federation.
56.2%
31.8%
7.9%
4.1%
How do you think, what political decision would maximally defuse the at the
moment?
Return to status-quo
Creation of autonomy within Ukraine
Recognition of independence of the territories
Affiliation to the Russian Federation
12

13. EXPECTED RESULTS OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
In the regional context there are the largest number of supporters of returning areas, which are
uncontrolled by Ukraine, to status-quo – 73% in the regions of Ukraine and 59,6% in Ukraine-
controlled Donbas.
Recognition of independence of the ATO areas is supported by Crimea experts (50%). The same
group would have supported a scenario of affiliation of uncontrolled Donbas territories to the
Russian Federation.
Among experts, who are the residents of the ATO area, there is the largest number of supporters
of autonomy within Ukraine (44,4%). Recognition of independence of territories or their affiliation
to the Russian Federation is supported by 11,1% and 3.7% of experts, living in the ATO area,
respectively.
25%
40.7% 50.6% 59.6% 73%
16.7%
35%
44.4% 35.6%
38.3% 21.4%
50%
20%
11.1% 9.2% 4.8%
33.3% 20%
3.7% 4.6% 2.1% 0.8%
Crimea Outside Ukraine ATO area Kiev Donetsk and Luhansk
regions (controlled by
Ukraine)
other regions of
Ukraine
How do you think, what political decision would maximally defuse the at the
moment?
(answers from regional perspective)
Return to status-quo Creation of autonomy within Ukraine
Recognition of independence of the territories Affiliation to the Russian Federation
13

14. PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS
• Under conditions of military actions and economic blockade of territories in conflict, experts
identify critical situation in financial sector and high degree of damage to production facilities
(7,8 and 7,7 points out of 10, respectively) to be among the most important problems of
Donbas economy. In addition, according to respondents, the lack of innovative developments
(7,2 points) and unsatisfactory condition of transport communications (7 points) are rather
significant problems for the region. Issues of the condition of raw materials base, condition of
recreation and services and personnel training potential were named by experts as the least
problematic for the region.
7.8 7.7
7.2 7.0
6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8
On the ten-point scale evaluate the importance of the following issues for the
economy of Donbas nowadays?
(average)
Condition of financial environment
Condition of production capacities
Absence of innovative developments
Condition of transport communications
Level of entrepreneurial initiative of population
Absence of professional personnel and manpower reserves
Potential of professional personnel training
Condition of recreation and services
Condition of raw materials base 14

15. OPTIMAL ECONOMIC POLICY IN RESPECT OF DONBAS
restoration of the banking
system
26%
creation of export-industrial
area
15%
tax holidays for small and
medium-sized business
25%
creation of an “offshore area”
in Donbas
6%
creation of an innovative
industrial area
27%
complete economic blockade
of the region
1%
What economic policy should the Government of Ukraine carry out with respect to
Donbas after assumed end of military actions?
In the aspect of focus on sectors of economy, traditional for Donbas (metallurgy and coal mining),
experts, support ideas of new economic approaches in development of the region
In particular, respondents believe that after the end of military actions it is necessary to create an
innovative industrial area in Donbas (27%), pay attention to restoration of the banking sector (26%)
and to introduce tax holiday for small and medium-sized business (25%).
A scenario of complete economic blockade of the region support minimal amount of experts
(around the 1%). 15

16. PERSPECTIVE SPHERES OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF DONBAS
Experts define 5 key economic sectors, prospective in the context of recovery of Donbas
economy: metallurgy, coal industry, small and medium enterprises in industrial sector,
agricultural sector, innovative technology and communication services.
Consequently, development of small and medium-sized business in the industrial sector is placed
among the top 3 priority sectors. Experts attributed transportation, services sphere and tourism
(non-production sector of the economy) to the secondary priorities.
48,4% 47,8%
42,4%
35,2% 33,6%
28%
22,8%
11% 11% 9%
6,6%
4%
Development of which economic branches will allow restoring Donbas economy in
the shortest time possible?
Metallurgy Coal mining industry
Small and medium-sized businesses in the industrial sector Agrarian sector
Innovative technology and communication services Mechanic engineering/machinery
Small and medium-sized business in trade sector Food industry
Transportation Consumer goods industry
Services sectror Tourism 16

17. DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INNOVATIVE
TECHNOLOGIES
In matters of restoration of Donbas, the emphasis on development of entrepreneurship and
innovative technologies is made by those experts, who live in the territories of Donetsk and
Luhansk regions, controlled by Ukraine, as well as by those, who had left for other regions of
Ukraine and those, who have stayed in the ATO area.
56,9%
54,5%
48,4%
44,7%
32%
16,7%
Frequencies of mentioning of entrepreneurship as a prospective economy
sphere for restoration of Donbas
Donetsk and Luhansk regions
(controlled by Ukraine)
other regions of Ukraine
ATO area
Kiev
Outside Ukraine
Crimea
17

18. SUPPORT OF SMALL AND MEDIUM BUSINESS IN DONBAS
62.8% 60.7% 58.4%
35.4% 34.9%
Concessional loans
programs
Arranging and
conducting meetings of
entrepreneurs
Tax holidays Conducting adaptation
training sessions
Exemption from taxes
and fines
What measures for small and medium-sized business of Donbas you consider to be
relevant after the end of hostilities?
In the aspect of supporting the development of Donbas small and medium-sized businesses,
experts point out the following measures, which to their opinion, would be relevant after the end
of hostilities:
- provision of concessional loans to entrepreneurs (62,8%);
- conducting meetings and training sessions for entrepreneurs (60,7%);
- introduction of the "tax holidays" regime (58,4%).
The issue of exemption from taxes and fines turned out to be of secondary importance, as it was
noted by only 34,9% of respondents. Tax issues are number one priority only for those experts
who are the residents in the ATO area. Introduction of tax holidays is supported by 70% of them,
exemption from taxes and fines - 41,7%.
18

19. DEMAND FOR HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE
P – critical relevance, P- high relevance, P – medium relevance
АТО area Ukraine-controlled Donbas
territories
Among IDPs
Essential medicine
P P P
Medicine for special groups
(insulin etc.) P P P
Essential food products
P P P
Baby (infant) food P P P
Children care products P P P
Personal care products P P P
Household chemicals P P P
Warm clothes P P P
Fuel for individual heating
P P P
According to experts, the most demanded humanitarian assistance for both, residents of the
ATO area, residents of Donbas territories controlled by Ukraine, and IDPs is medicine. According
to experts, it is also very important for the ATO area residents to obtain essential food products,
baby (infant) food and personal care products.
19

20. According to experts, business of Donbas is ready to support the activities of enterprises located
in the ATO area itself at least (33,6%).
READINESS OF DONBAS BUSINESS TO ASSIST RESIDENTS OF ATO
AREA AND IDPs
According to respondents, Donbas entrepreneurs are ready to participate in assisting the
residents of ATO area and IDPs. 84,2% of experts believe that business of Donbas can provide
employment for countrymen-IDPs in their enterprises. At the same time, 62% believe that
entrepreneurs can assist IDPs in construction of temporary housing.
84.2%
62% 58.4%
50.9%
33.6%
Provide employment for
countrymen-IDPs
Participate in construction of
temporary housing for IDPs
Assist socially unprotected
countrymen in leaving the
ATO area
Arrange gathering and
conveying of humanitarian
assistance
Support activities of
enterprises located in the
ATO area
How, in your opinion, business of Donbas can help non-combatants, who are leaving
the ATO area?
20

21. 58% of the experts are ready to participate in volunteer projects aimed at restoring devastations
upon completion of hostilities. Experts, who live outside Ukraine and those, who live in Kiev are
ready to volunteer least of all. Experts, who live in the Ukraine-controlled Donbas territories
(67,2%), Crimea (66,7%) and in the ATO area (58,1%) are ready to volunteer the most.
41% of experts are ready to provide financial assistance to voluntary organizations.
36% of respondents agreed to participate in restoration of Donbas for a fee.
READINESS OF EXPERTS TO PARTICIPATE IN RESTORING OF DON
28.0%
50.5% 51.7%
58.1%
66.7% 67.2%
Are you ready to actively participate in volunteer projects?
Outside Ukraine
Kiev
other regions of Ukraine
ATO area
Crimea
Donetsk and Luhansk regions (controlled by
Ukraine)
21

22. DEMAND FOR INFORMATION SERVICES
In addition to humanitarian assistance, according to experts, the ATO area residents and IDPs
require provision of some information services. According to respondents, for ATO area
residents the first and foremost is information assistance (85,9%) and psychological counselling
(85,5%). For IDPs - legal consultations (92,4%) and information assistance (85,6%) are highly
relevant.
Experts attributed remote consultations with medical professionals and online tutoring services
to the secondary needs for both population categories.
52.3%
76.0%
79.0%
85.5%
85.9%
Remote tutoring services
(school, interest clubs)
Remote consultations with
medical professionals
Legal consultations
Psychological counselling
Information assistance
For ATO area residents For IDPs
- required - hard to tell - not required 22
40.7%
54.5%
84.6%
85.6%
92.4%
Remote tutoring services
(school, interest clubs)
Remote consultations with
medical professionals
Psychological counselling
Information assistance
Legal consultations

23. SYSTEM OF VALUES OF DONBAS RESIDENTS
According to experts, fundamental values for Donbas residents, are family (76,1%), stability
(72,8%) and peace (62,3%). Also respondents included justice and property in the Top 5 list of
fundamental values, but they are far behind the leaders, having got only 16% and 13,7%
respectively.
2.8%
4.3%
4.6%
9.2%
13%
13%
13.7%
16%
62.3%
72.8%
76.1%
Honesty
Equality
Right
Freedom
Social weight
Colleagues opinion
Property
Justice
Peace
Stability
Family
Fundamental values of Donbas residents
23

24. Thank you for
your attention!
© Community initiative «Restoring Donbas». 2015
http://restoring-donbass.com
info@restoring-donbass.com
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