Launch of new book by Tony Atkinson with keynote address by Nick Stern, held at the Resolution Foundation on June 11th 2019.

1. @resfoundation

2. Launch of Tony Atkinson’s book
Measuring Poverty around the World; and
afterword on climate change and poverty
Nicholas Stern
IGPatelProfessorofEconomics&Government,London SchoolofEconomics and Political Science
ChairoftheESRCCentreforClimateChangeEconomicsandPolicy
ChairoftheGranthamResearchInstituteonClimateChangeandtheEnvironment
Co-ChairoftheGlobalCommissionontheEconomyandClimate (NewClimateEconomy)
London,11 June2019

3. 1. Tony the economist, builder and friend
2. Tony’s vision and setting of the agenda
3. The afterword: climate change and
poverty
4. Prospects
3

4. 4
Tony Atkinson was one of the most thoughtful, creative, prolific and distinguished
economists the world has seen. His deep humanity and decency, combined with his
extraordinary intellectual ability, took him to the most important issues shaping the
lives and livelihoods of people across the world, particularly the poorest. At the same
time, he was constantly challenging and questioning, he never stopped asking whether
the approaches we were using were capturing the essence of the crucial problems we
were trying to tackle. He challenged our profession in the 1960s by bringing, in his first
book (Atkinson, 1969), poverty and individual circumstances in developed countries to
centre stage in economics, in contrast to the aggregate, growth and class focus which
was dominating so much of the discourse in our subject. And the intensity of his
challenge to what economists do and how they do it continued to the last decade of
his life, including in his 2015 book on inequality; indeed, in some ways it became still
more intense.
From Journal of Public Economics special issue in honour of Tony Atkinson, 162 (2018) 4–17

5. Tony the builder
• Building research institutions and groups, courses, data, focus.
• Essex, UCL, STICERD, Nuffield, Cambridge, Luxembourg…
• Journal of Public Economics, Founder and Editor for two decades.
• Taxation, Incentives and the Distribution of Income at STICERD in
1980s and 1990s, one of first ESRC Programmes and one of first to
use UK household data (starting with FES).
• Focus on poverty throughout.
5

6. Tony the friend
• Always there to counsel and support.
• Across the generations; families.
• The visits to Normandy
• Across the nations
• Bringing people together around the big issues.
• The Atkinson test: what would Tony think?
6

7. 1. Tony the economist, builder and friend
2. Tony’s vision and setting of the agenda
3. The afterword: climate change and
poverty
4. Prospects
7

8. 8

9. Tony’s vision and his setting of the agenda
• Tony always saw both the big picture and the importance of care with
details of concept and measurement.
• In this afterword, the big picture embodies the immense risks of
climate change to lives and livelihoods; and the problems of the
dynamics of a capitalist market economy. Tony and I discussed these
issues at length.
• Have to recognise the magnitude of the problem and its origins, both
in our success as a world since the second world war, and in our
failures to manage the market economy in the same period.
• Must build a new approach to a dynamic and creative economy.
9

10. Why Tony wanted this book (1)
• To understand, must look from 1969 to 2019.
• Changing world, changing ideas.
• The pressures of sustainability and the functioning of
capitalism and its dynamics.
• Some constancies of concept across the half-century; but
some very different circumstances and threats. And thus
changing challenges of measurement and policy.
10

11. Why Tony wanted this book (2)
• “… poverty is one of the two greatest challenges facing the world as a
whole today, along with climate change, with whose consequences
poverty is intimately connected.” on p.1 of Chapter 1.
• Tony raised two issues explicitly in his introduction to Chapter 6
• Is there a trade-off between growth, inequality and poverty reduction?
François Bourguignon discussed this in his afterword.
• “We need to face the question of how far climate change mitigation and
poverty alleviation are complementary and how far they are potentially in
conflict.”
11

12. 1. Tony the economist, builder and friend
2. Tony’s vision and setting of the agenda
3. The afterword: climate change and
poverty
4. Prospects
12

13. Structure of Afterword
1. Introduction
2. The challenge: urgency and scale
3. Poorest hit earliest and hardest
4. The global agenda
5. Political economy, obstacles to change and managing the dynamics
of change
6. Prospects
13

14. Currently a large gap between current COP21 NDCs and what is
required to reach the Paris temperature targets
The challenge is now to accelerate action to 2030 to close the gap. Requires immediate action across whole economy.
Must peak emissions in next few years and go to “net zero” in next 50-60 years.
20
10
0
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Current policy trajectory (no additional action) (4oC - 5oC range)
With implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (3oC range)
2oC
1.5oC
GtCO2e
Gap for2oC (15GtCO2ein2030)
Source: Stylised trajectories based on UNEP (2018)
14

15. The science of climate change is clear; the impacts of failure could be
devastating; difference between 1.5oC and 2oC strongly significant
Extreme Heat
(Global pop. exposed to severe heat at least once
every 5 years)
Frequency of rainfall extremes
(land)
1.5oC 2oC
Average drought length
(months)
14% 37%
17%
2
36%
4
Source: IPCC (2018) and WRI (2018)
Differences between 1.5°C and 2°C are major. Differences from 2oC to 2.5oC, and then to 3oC likely still bigger. Current Paris COP21 plans for 2030 look like paths
headed for 3°C and above over the next century or so.
Have not seen temperatures above 3oC for around 3 million years; hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, would have to move. Risks of severe and extended conflict.
Note that 3 million years ago CO2 concentrations were similar levels to now, and sea levels were 10 – 20m higher (Foster et al., 2017).
15

16. Global GHG emissions are on the wrong track
Have we reached a plateau? Overall increases in 2016, 2017, and 2018. Important to turn down now and go to zero-carbon by mid-century for 1.5oC and within
five decades for 2oC.
China
Non-OECD
countries
USA
Europe (OECD)
Russia
India
GtCO2
Source: Global Carbon Project (2018). (Energy Sector only)
1.7
2.5
2.7
5.3
8.1
9.8
GHG emissions
(GtCO2)
(2017)
Country
Trend
(past 5 years)
(GtCO2 in 2013)
Total 34.7
Japan 1.2 (1.3)
(1.7)
(2)
(2.5)
(5.5)
(7.4)
(10)
(33.9)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Rest of OECD
3.5 (3.6)
16

17. Climate change is an immense risk, decisions made now are critical in
establishing low-carbon development, growth and poverty reduction
Growth of approximately 3%
per annum. Led by emerging
and developing countries.
Urban population will double in
40 years, Towns and cities
shaped in the next 20.
Investment of approximately
US$ 90 trillion.
Change in the next decades
2xGDP
Urban
Population
Infrastructure
2x
2x
At the same time
(to meet Paris targets)
20
years
40 years
15 years
Decrease
GHG emissions from
~50 to ~40 Gt CO2e
by 2030
2oC ~20%
~50%1.5oC
Decrease
GHG emissions from
~50 to ~ 25 Gt CO2e
by 2030
or
The next decade is critical. Choices made on infrastructure and capital now will either lock us in to high emissions, or set us on a low-carbon growth
path which can be sustainable and inclusive.
17

18. The poorest are hit earliest and hardest
• Poorer people are:
• more likely to live on land which is more vulnerable to extreme weather events, e.g. floodplains, in
less robust homes, …. (Mumbai, New Orleans, Philippines, Mozambique …)
• Less likely to receive early warning and assistance
• more exposed to gradual, slower and more pervasive environmental disasters, e.g. extended periods
of low rainfall and drought or desertification
• more likely to be working on marginal land if engaged in agriculture, with less access to irrigation to
manage drought or drainage to manage flooding.
• Consequences of climate-induced droughts already being felt in large parts of Africa,
though not confined to there.
• Transformation of lives and livelihoods arising from temperature increases of 2, 3 and
higher degrees Centigrade could cause hundreds of millions, perhaps billions to have to
move, with grave risks of widespread, severe and extended conflict.
• Signs are already appearing in Darfur, Syria, Northern Nigeria,…
• The poorest of the world, wherever they are, have contributed least to the causes of
climate change but they suffer the greatest impacts. This issue was of profound significance
to Tony in thinking about poverty, justice and policy.
18

19. In the era of international cooperation, we have seen extraordinary
achievement along many dimensions of development
19
The scale and nature of growth has put intense pressure on the environment and global commons: from 1950 to now world population has roughly
trebled; GDP/capita gone up by a factor of 4; output by a factor of 12. Largely fossil-fuelled.
Dimension Indicator 1960 2015 Source
Income
GDP per capita
(constant 2010 US$)
3,737 10,636 World Bank, 2018
Health
Life Expectancy
(years)
52.5 72
Education
Literacy Rate
(% of people ages 15 and
above)
61% 86%
Poverty
Share of population living
on less than US$1.90 per
day
42% (1981) 10%
Population Billions of people 3.0 7.3
Infant mortality
(per 1000 births)
103 31
Average years of
education
3.2 7.7 (2010)
World Bank, 2018
World Bank, 2018
OECD, 2014
World Bank, 2018
UN Population Division,
2018

20. 2015/2016 were breakthrough years for international cooperation led by
climate change, but progress is under threat
20
We can rebuild the spirit of internationalism and common humanity by pursuing this agenda. Internationalism is necessary to deliver on this
agenda.
Finance
Development
Climate Change
Urban Development
Climate Change
Financing for development
Sustainable Development Goals
Paris Agreement on Climate Change (CoP 21)
New Urban Agenda
Marrakesh Action Proclamation For Our Climate And Sustainable
Development (CoP22)
Area
July 2015
Sep 2015
Dec 2015
Oct 2016
Nov 2016
Date Name of Agreement
Climate Change The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal protocolOct 2016

21. 21
Strong investment in sustainable infrastructure will accelerate
growth which is sustainable and inclusive; delivering the SDGs

22. Political economy
• Obstacles to change and managing the dynamics of change.
• Many vested interests in existing structures, including in economic
rents.
• The necessary change will have to be rapid and radical and some
dislocation of activities will be inevitable. Have to manage change.
Must invest in people and places.
• Past failures to manage change compound the obstacles.
• Some prices will change and must think of how to protect living
standards, particularly for poorest.
22

23. 1. Tony the economist, builder and friend
2. Tony’s vision and setting of the agenda
3. The afterword: climate change and
poverty
4. Prospects
23

24. Darkness or a new beginning?
• Prospects potentially catastrophic if we fail to manage climate change.
• Lives and livelihoods at risk for all but particularly the poorest.
• If we act strongly and together, we have a very attractive, sustainable and
inclusive growth story in our hands.
• We can see technologies and policies, and beginnings of momentum.
• Time for vision and new internationalisms.
• And time for clarity and rigour on policy.
• This is why Tony saw poverty and climate as the two great challenges facing
the world today and why he saw them as intimately connected. He was
already responding to these twin challenges and would have done much
more. 24

25. Will we have the will and wisdom to act?
• We must all play our part; academics, communicators, business, civil
society. And political leadership is critical.
• Will to decide and implement.
• Our young people and society are now bringing the pressure.
• Tony would have been in the vanguard.
25

28. Measuring poverty around the world
- ‘measuring’ poverty
- motivating action, designing policy, gauging progress, holding
leaders accountable
- ‘around’ the world
- a guide for measurement in any country, rich or poor
- how to estimate a total for world poverty

29. Builds on Tony’s report of the
Commission on Global Poverty, 2016
- the report:
- advised World Bank on specific aspects of its measurement
- restricted to methods
- the book:
- starts from first principles
- translates these into concrete measures
- analyses data to which the measures can be applied
- …also addresses substantive issues
- emphasises integration of countries’ own measurement and
that of international organisations

30. A classic Atkinson volume
- Foreword
- places the book in context
- describes our editorial work
- unfinished, but:
- over 400 pages
- some 90 graphs and tables
- unfinished chapters:
- a foundation for others
- and a challenge

31. Contents
1 Introduction
2 What do we mean by poverty?
3 Clarifying concepts
4 The key role of data
5 Global poverty and the SDGs
6 Poverty in Asia and the Pacific
7 Africa: Diversity of experience
8 Latin America and the Caribbean
9 Poverty in rich countries and a
new global perspective
10 Conclusions: Beyond $1.90
plus Afterwords: (i) Growth, inequality and poverty reduction, (ii) Poverty
and climate change, and National Reports (60 countries)
Example of Tony’s ‘principled’ approach: no measurement without
theory, theory must be usable, ethical judgements must be explicit

32. Chapters 1 to 5
- Ch 1: illustrates this ‘principled’ approach
- Ch 2: different approaches to measuring poverty
- Chs 3 & 4: a poverty measurement ‘checklist’
- Ch 3 clarifies concepts
- Ch 4 considers available data
- Ch 5: analysis of data from international organisations
- World Bank monetary vs. UNDP non-monetary

33. Chapters 6 to 9
- Ch 6 Poverty in Asia and the Pacific
- Ch 7 Africa: Diversity of experience
- Ch 8 Latin America and the Caribbean
- Ch 9 Poverty in rich countries and a new global
perspective
1. analysis of levels and trends, comparing national data
and data from international agencies
2. ‘general issues’ about causes and correlates of poverty
or its measurement

34. ‘General issues’ in Chapters 6 to 9
Ch 6 - poverty, inequality and growth
- poverty reduction and action on climate change
Ch 7 - the colonial legacy for poverty today
- correlates of success & failure in pov. reduction
Ch 8 - consumption or income?
- ethnic minorities and indigenous peoples
Ch 9 - persistence of poverty in rich countries
- estimates of world pov based on a “societal” pov line

35. Chapter 10 - Conclusions
‘The world is changing… all societies evolve and their ambitions
with regard to tackling poverty change over time. To meet the
changing world, the analysis of poverty has to become richer
and more subtle’
‘Economists, statisticians, sociologists, and political scientists,
among others, have to open their minds to new ways of
thinking.’

36. Chapter 10 - Conclusions
‘I have formed the view, when reading hundreds of
poverty reports, that the key is the engagement of
top politicians and policy-makers’

38. Measuring Poverty Matters
Rachel Glennerster
Chief Economists Office DFID
June 2019

39. Why measuring poverty matters
• This book is a careful discussion of the many difficult questions we
face when trying to define and measure poverty
• Can we have a global poverty line or do we need country specific ones
• Should we measure income or consumption?
• How much does the second person in a HH need to live on than the first?
• Indeed, Tony Atkinson spent much of his life contributing to these
important discussions
• When you start getting into these questions you realise just how hard
they are to answer.

40. Why measuring poverty matters
• At some points the book provides practical advice about the right
approach—for example it is pretty clear that Tony did not approve of
setting the poverty line lower for women than men, as the US does,
• For the most part it does not say we should only use this measure or this
approach
• There is a risk that people get discouraged by the complexity of some of
these questions. But I think what this book illustrates so beautifully is that:
• there is no single right answer about how to measure poverty but
• We can and do make improvements in how we measure it, and that these
improvements matter
• Let me illustrate with two examples

41. US: consumption vs income
• There has been a big debate about how many people live on less than $2 a day in the US
with Edin and Shaefer and Deaton producing estimates in the millions based on income
data, many children. However, estimates from consumption data suggested lower rates.
• Raised a question.
• Meyer and coauthors dug further and linked participants in Survey of Income and
Program Participation with government records on the distribution of benefits and found
massive underreporting.
• Of the 3.6 million that SIPP data would suggest are living on less than $2 a day, 90% are
misclassified—ie are earning more than $1.90.
• Most of those who are extreme poor after this correction of underreporting are childless
individuals vs families with children predominating before the correction
• Big policy difference
• However, you come down in this discussion, and I am sure there will be more rounds, its
clearly important to keep digging

42. Different measures of poverty Pakistan

43. Multi-dimensional poverty Pakistan

44. Link to other areas
• I have recently concluded a guide on measuring women’s empowerment and was
continually struck when reading this book of the parallels between the
discussions in the two areas
• For example
• The importance of asking and involving those whose poverty or empowerment
you seek to measure to help define what is poverty, what is empowerment
• But both share the challenge that both poverty and lack of empowerment close
down the set of things people think are possible, or have a right to, or are as
standard. For example we may not want to work into our measures that a girl
needs to eat less than a boy even if that is a local perception.
• So many difficult issues but we are better as researchers and policy makers if we
continue to engage with these tough questions.
• Poverty lines seem so 0/1, cut and dried, but working on them carefully helps us
get a much fuller nuanced picture of the world.

45. @resfoundation