BMI View: Two themes will play a considerable role in US agricultural production over the short term: export opportunities and grain prices. Aside from sugar, the US runs a surplus in virtually every agricultural sector. This means that the country will be well placed to capitalise on growing consumption needs in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This will especially benefit the poultry, rice, wheat and corn sectors. Grain prices will also be a dominant theme, as although the current rise in grain prices will benefit grain farmers, livestock producers could see production suffer like in 2007/08 as production costs increase. Human based consumption growth will be largely stagnant across most sectors, with feed or alternative energy demands the main drivers for sectors experiencing significant consumption growth. Key Trends ! Rice production growth to 2013/14: 23%. Over our forecast period, rising incomes in emerging markets, predominantly Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, will boost demand for US rice exports. This will see US rice production continuing to expand to reach 7.84mn tonnes. ! Corn production growth to 2014: 25%. The continued increase in ethanol production looks set to keep corn production strong. We expect production to reach 368mn tonnes largely driven by increases in demand for feed from the livestock sector and also from ethanol and export demand. ! Milk production growth to 2013: 14:7%. This growth will not only come from domestic consumption, which is expected to rise over the forecast period, but also through greater export potential, especially to Asia, where current dairy consumption is starting from a very low base and is expanding rapidly in some countries. ! 2010 Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (up from -2.6% in 2009; predicted to average 2.2% from 2010 until 2014). ! Consumer Price Inflation: 1.1% year-on-year in August 2010 (up from -1.5% y-o-y in August 2009). Industry Developments Soybean production in the US has grown rapidly over the last two decades, growing by more than 50% since the start of the 1990s. Production has benefited from the meteoric rise in demand from China over the past decade or more. With soybean oil the most popular edible oil in China and soybean meal in high demand from the country's fast-expanding livestock sector, soybean imports have soared. By September 2010, the USDA is forecasting US 2009/10 exports to be a decade high 40mn tonnes, a 48% increase over 2000/01. China remained the primary destination, accounting for over half of all soybean exports so far in 2009/10. Poultry is the only livestock sector to show growth in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The growth largely comes on the back of rising domestic demand, but also from foreign markets as well. Over the forecast period, we expect poultry production to rise by 11% to 20.6mn tonnes, the strongest growth within the livestock sector. The increase in production will largely come from rising domestic consumption. However, the US is also the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, should serve as a powerful production incentive. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has found that sugar in the US receives more support than any other crop. Many put this down to the lobbying of the historically powerful collection of processors that run the industry. A threat to the current status quo has now opened up, however. Since the beginning of 2008, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), all tariffs and quotas for the trade of sugar and sweeteners between the US, Canada and Mexico have been removed. Although we are still forecasting production to grow strongly over the forecast period, should the sector be increasingly liberalised, domestic production could be threatened by cheap imports from Latin America, a scenario that has already occurred with various members of the EU, pa

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United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Published on October 2010
Report Summary
BMI View: Two themes will play a considerable role in US agricultural production over the short term: export opportunities and grain
prices. Aside from sugar, the US runs a surplus in virtually every agricultural sector. This means that the country will be well placed to
capitalise on growing consumption needs in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This will especially
benefit the poultry, rice, wheat and corn sectors. Grain prices will also be a dominant theme, as although the current rise in grain
prices will benefit grain farmers, livestock producers could see production suffer like in 2007/08 as production costs increase. Human
based consumption growth will be largely stagnant across most sectors, with feed or alternative energy demands the main drivers for
sectors experiencing significant consumption growth.
Key Trends
! Rice production growth to 2013/14: 23%. Over our forecast period, rising incomes in emerging markets, predominantly Latin
America, the Middle East and Africa, will boost demand for US rice exports. This will see US rice production continuing to expand to
reach 7.84mn tonnes.
! Corn production growth to 2014: 25%. The continued increase in ethanol production looks set to keep corn production strong. We
expect production to reach 368mn tonnes largely driven by increases in demand for feed from the livestock sector and also from
ethanol and export demand.
! Milk production growth to 2013: 14:7%. This growth will not only come from domestic consumption, which is expected to rise over
the forecast period, but also through greater export potential, especially to Asia, where current dairy consumption is starting from a
very low base and is expanding rapidly in some countries.
! 2010 Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (up from -2.6% in 2009; predicted to average 2.2% from 2010 until 2014).
! Consumer Price Inflation: 1.1% year-on-year in August 2010 (up from -1.5% y-o-y in August 2009).
Industry Developments
Soybean production in the US has grown rapidly over the last two decades, growing by more than 50% since the start of the 1990s.
Production has benefited from the meteoric rise in demand from China over the past decade or more. With soybean oil the most
popular edible oil in China and soybean meal in high demand from the country's fast-expanding livestock sector, soybean imports
have soared. By September 2010, the USDA is forecasting US 2009/10 exports to be a decade high 40mn tonnes, a 48% increase
over 2000/01. China remained the primary destination, accounting for over half of all soybean exports so far in 2009/10.
Poultry is the only livestock sector to show growth in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The growth largely comes on the back of rising domestic
demand, but also from foreign markets as well. Over the forecast period, we expect poultry production to rise by 11% to 20.6mn
tonnes, the strongest growth within the livestock sector. The increase in production will largely come from rising domestic
consumption. However, the US is also the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand
for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, should serve as a powerful production incentive. The Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development has found that sugar in the US receives more support than any other crop. Many put this down to the
lobbying of the historically powerful collection of processors that run the industry. A threat to the current status quo has now opened
up, however. Since the beginning of 2008, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), all tariffs and quotas for the
trade of sugar and sweeteners between the US, Canada and Mexico have been removed. Although we are still forecasting production
to grow strongly over the forecast period, should the sector be increasingly liberalised, domestic production could be threatened by
cheap imports from Latin America, a scenario that has already occurred with various members of the EU, particularly Spain.
United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5

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Table of Content
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis .... 7
United States Agriculture SWOT 7
United States Political SWOT 8
United States Economic SWOT .. 8
United States Business Environment SWOT .... 9
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10
United States Grains Outlook ... 10
Table: United States ' Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 11
Table: United States ' Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 11
Table: United States ' Barley Production, Consumption & Trade .. 11
Table: United States ' Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade .... 11
Table: United States ' Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 14
Table: United States ' Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 15
Table: United States ' Barley Production, Consumption & Trade .. 15
Table: United States ' Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade .... 15
United States Dairy Outlook 17
Table: United States ' Milk Production & Consumption . 18
Table: United States ' Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 18
Table: United States ' Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 18
Table: United States ' Milk Production & Consumption . 20
Table: United States ' Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 20
Table: United States ' Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 20
United States Soybean Outlook . 21
Table: United States ' Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade .... 22
Table: United States ' Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade .... 23
United States Sugar Outlook 24
Table: United States ' Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ... 25
Table: United States ' Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ... 27
United States Livestock Outlook .... 27
Table: United States ' Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 28
Table: United States ' Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 29
Table: United States ' Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade.... 29
Table: United States ' Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 32
Table: United States ' Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 34
Table: United States ' Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade.... 34
United States Rice Outlook .. 35
Table: United States ' Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 36
Table: United States ' Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 37
Competitive Landscape ... 38
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders 38
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers .. 39
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers 40
Commodity Price Analysis .... 41
Softs Update 41
Cocoa 41
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Table: Cocoa ... 41
Coffee 42
Table: Coffee ... 42
Milk ... 43
Table: Milk . 43
Sugar 44
Table: Sugar .... 44
Grains Update . 45
Corn .. 45
Table: Corn 45
Rice ... 46
Table: Rice .. 46
Soybean . 47
Table: Soybean 47
Wheat 48
Table: Wheat.... 48
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ... 49
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 49
Consumer Outlook 49
Food.. 50
Total Food Consumption 50
Table: US Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 51
Confectionery... 51
Canned Food ... 52
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .. 52
Mass Grocery Retail .. 53
Table: United States MGR Sector - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts. 54
Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%) ... 54
Trade 55
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts .... 55
Macroeconomic Forecast .... 56
Table: United States - Economic Activity . 59
Industry Trend Analysis .. 60
BMI Forecast Modelling ... 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 64
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