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United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

BMI View: Two themes will play a considerable role in US agricultural production over the short term: export opportunities and grain prices. Aside from sugar, the US runs a surplus in virtually every agricultural sector. This means that the country will be well placed to capitalise on growing consumption needs in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This will especially benefit the poultry, rice, wheat and corn sectors. Grain prices will also be a dominant theme, as although the current rise in grain prices will benefit grain farmers, livestock producers could see production suffer like in 2007/08 as production costs increase. Human based consumption growth will be largely stagnant across most sectors, with feed or alternative energy demands the main drivers for sectors experiencing significant consumption growth. Key Trends ! Rice production growth to 2013/14: 23%. Over our forecast period, rising incomes in emerging markets, predominantly Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, will boost demand for US rice exports. This will see US rice production continuing to expand to reach 7.84mn tonnes. ! Corn production growth to 2014: 25%. The continued increase in ethanol production looks set to keep corn production strong. We expect production to reach 368mn tonnes largely driven by increases in demand for feed from the livestock sector and also from ethanol and export demand. ! Milk production growth to 2013: 14:7%. This growth will not only come from domestic consumption, which is expected to rise over the forecast period, but also through greater export potential, especially to Asia, where current dairy consumption is starting from a very low base and is expanding rapidly in some countries. ! 2010 Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (up from -2.6% in 2009; predicted to average 2.2% from 2010 until 2014). ! Consumer Price Inflation: 1.1% year-on-year in August 2010 (up from -1.5% y-o-y in August 2009). Industry Developments Soybean production in the US has grown rapidly over the last two decades, growing by more than 50% since the start of the 1990s. Production has benefited from the meteoric rise in demand from China over the past decade or more. With soybean oil the most popular edible oil in China and soybean meal in high demand from the country's fast-expanding livestock sector, soybean imports have soared. By September 2010, the USDA is forecasting US 2009/10 exports to be a decade high 40mn tonnes, a 48% increase over 2000/01. China remained the primary destination, accounting for over half of all soybean exports so far in 2009/10. Poultry is the only livestock sector to show growth in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The growth largely comes on the back of rising domestic demand, but also from foreign markets as well. Over the forecast period, we expect poultry production to rise by 11% to 20.6mn tonnes, the strongest growth within the livestock sector. The increase in production will largely come from rising domestic consumption. However, the US is also the world's second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demand for poultry, particularly from emerging markets, should serve as a powerful production incentive. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has found that sugar in the US receives more support than any other crop. Many put this down to the lobbying of the historically powerful collection of processors that run the industry. A threat to the current status quo has now opened up, however. Since the beginning of 2008, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), all tariffs and quotas for the trade of sugar and sweeteners between the US, Canada and Mexico have been removed. Although we are still forecasting production to grow strongly over the forecast period, should the sector be increasingly liberalised, domestic production could be threatened by cheap imports from Latin America, a scenario that has already occurred with various members of the EU, pa

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United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010

  1. 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010Published on October 2010 Report SummaryBMI View: Two themes will play a considerable role in US agricultural production over the short term: export opportunities and grainprices. Aside from sugar, the US runs a surplus in virtually every agricultural sector. This means that the country will be well placed tocapitalise on growing consumption needs in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This will especiallybenefit the poultry, rice, wheat and corn sectors. Grain prices will also be a dominant theme, as although the current rise in grainprices will benefit grain farmers, livestock producers could see production suffer like in 2007/08 as production costs increase. Humanbased consumption growth will be largely stagnant across most sectors, with feed or alternative energy demands the main drivers forsectors experiencing significant consumption growth.Key Trends! Rice production growth to 2013/14: 23%. Over our forecast period, rising incomes in emerging markets, predominantly LatinAmerica, the Middle East and Africa, will boost demand for US rice exports. This will see US rice production continuing to expand toreach 7.84mn tonnes.! Corn production growth to 2014: 25%. The continued increase in ethanol production looks set to keep corn production strong. Weexpect production to reach 368mn tonnes largely driven by increases in demand for feed from the livestock sector and also fromethanol and export demand.! Milk production growth to 2013: 14:7%. This growth will not only come from domestic consumption, which is expected to rise overthe forecast period, but also through greater export potential, especially to Asia, where current dairy consumption is starting from avery low base and is expanding rapidly in some countries.! 2010 Real GDP Growth: 2.6% (up from -2.6% in 2009; predicted to average 2.2% from 2010 until 2014).! Consumer Price Inflation: 1.1% year-on-year in August 2010 (up from -1.5% y-o-y in August 2009).Industry DevelopmentsSoybean production in the US has grown rapidly over the last two decades, growing by more than 50% since the start of the 1990s.Production has benefited from the meteoric rise in demand from China over the past decade or more. With soybean oil the mostpopular edible oil in China and soybean meal in high demand from the countrys fast-expanding livestock sector, soybean importshave soared. By September 2010, the USDA is forecasting US 2009/10 exports to be a decade high 40mn tonnes, a 48% increaseover 2000/01. China remained the primary destination, accounting for over half of all soybean exports so far in 2009/10.Poultry is the only livestock sector to show growth in 2009/10 and 2010/11. The growth largely comes on the back of rising domesticdemand, but also from foreign markets as well. Over the forecast period, we expect poultry production to rise by 11% to 20.6mntonnes, the strongest growth within the livestock sector. The increase in production will largely come from rising domesticconsumption. However, the US is also the worlds second largest poultry exporter behind Brazil. As such, increased global demandfor poultry, particularly from emerging markets, should serve as a powerful production incentive. The Organisation for EconomicCo-operation and Development has found that sugar in the US receives more support than any other crop. Many put this down to thelobbying of the historically powerful collection of processors that run the industry. A threat to the current status quo has now openedup, however. Since the beginning of 2008, under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), all tariffs and quotas for thetrade of sugar and sweeteners between the US, Canada and Mexico have been removed. Although we are still forecasting productionto grow strongly over the forecast period, should the sector be increasingly liberalised, domestic production could be threatened bycheap imports from Latin America, a scenario that has already occurred with various members of the EU, particularly Spain.United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5
  2. 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics Table of ContentExecutive Summary . 5SWOT Analysis .... 7United States Agriculture SWOT 7United States Political SWOT 8United States Economic SWOT .. 8United States Business Environment SWOT .... 9Industry Forecast Scenario ... 10United States Grains Outlook ... 10Table: United States Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 11Table: United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 11Table: United States Barley Production, Consumption & Trade .. 11Table: United States Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade .... 11Table: United States Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ... 14Table: United States Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 15Table: United States Barley Production, Consumption & Trade .. 15Table: United States Sorghum Production, Consumption & Trade .... 15United States Dairy Outlook 17Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption . 18Table: United States Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 18Table: United States Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 18Table: United States Milk Production & Consumption . 20Table: United States Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ... 20Table: United States Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade . 20United States Soybean Outlook . 21Table: United States Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade .... 22Table: United States Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade .... 23United States Sugar Outlook 24Table: United States Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ... 25Table: United States Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade ... 27United States Livestock Outlook .... 27Table: United States Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 28Table: United States Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 29Table: United States Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade.... 29Table: United States Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade . 32Table: United States Pork Production, Consumption & Trade 34Table: United States Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade.... 34United States Rice Outlook .. 35Table: United States Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 36Table: United States Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 37Competitive Landscape ... 38Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders 38Table: Agribusiness Suppliers .. 39Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers 40Commodity Price Analysis .... 41Softs Update 41Cocoa 41United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5
  3. 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsTable: Cocoa ... 41Coffee 42Table: Coffee ... 42Milk ... 43Table: Milk . 43Sugar 44Table: Sugar .... 44Grains Update . 45Corn .. 45Table: Corn 45Rice ... 46Table: Rice .. 46Soybean . 47Table: Soybean 47Wheat 48Table: Wheat.... 48Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ... 49Industry Forecast Scenario .. 49Consumer Outlook 49Food.. 50Total Food Consumption 50Table: US Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts ... 51Confectionery... 51Canned Food ... 52Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts .. 52Mass Grocery Retail .. 53Table: United States MGR Sector - Sales Value by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts. 54Table: Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type (%) ... 54Trade 55Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data & Forecasts .... 55Macroeconomic Forecast .... 56Table: United States - Economic Activity . 59Industry Trend Analysis .. 60BMI Forecast Modelling ... 64How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 64United States Agribusiness Report Q4 2010 Page 3/5
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