BMI's outlook for pharmaceutical companies operating in the Emerging Europe region has improved further over the past quarter, as shown by our updated Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix. However, while Turkey's compound quarterly score has improved somewhat, its regional ranking has actually worsened to sixth (from fourth), overtaken by Russia and Hungary. Globally, Turkey remains 26th of the 83 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI. While a number of major multinationals have indicated that Turkey is of major interest to them as a key emerging market, the recent pricing and reimbursement reforms will continue to weigh on the growth of market values, as will shortcomings in its intellectual property (IP) environment. In fact, during the most recent European Union (EU)-Turkey Association Council's meeting, the EU backed Turkey's constitutional amendments, a small step on the long road to accession. However, despite some positive moves, the EU stated concerns over many aspects of Turkey's business environment, including the pharmaceutical industry. The EU called for Turkey to establish legal certainty on regulatory data exclusivity, a theme also raised by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s Special 301 report for 2010, which placed Turkey on the Priority Watch List. The EU has also requested that Turkey suspend new requirements on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), as they impose a 'de-facto ban' on imports of certain products, instead suggesting that Turkey develop its capacity in-line with international harmonisation initiatives for GMP. Turkey's pharmaceutical market was valued at TRY16.8bn (US$10.83bn) in 2009, making it the 14th largest market globally. Despite a blip in growth expected in 2010, through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in local currency (and of % in US dollar terms), with the market reaching TRY24.25bn (US$20.38bn) at consumer prices. While the development of the generics segment will be stimulated by cost-containment pressures, international standards and IP protection requirements should also work in favour of patented drugs, which are expected to largely retain their share of the total market by value at the same level as in 2009. In the meantime, the economic rebound expected for Turkey should also stimulate the development of the pharmaceutical market ' in both volume and value terms ' once the effects of the 2009 pricing and reimbursement changes are fully digested. We stand by our view that Turkey is among the best positioned emerging markets over the long run. Turkey's domestically-oriented economic structure, diversified industrial sectors, healthy local capital market, pro-reform government and greater leverage potential all suggest that the economy is set to outperform its core emerging European peers, which are some of the other factors providing a solid base for investment in the country's pharmaceutical market.

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Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010
Published on August 2010
Report Summary
BMI's outlook for pharmaceutical companies operating in the Emerging Europe region has improved further over the past quarter, as
shown by our updated Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Business Environment Ratings (BERs) matrix. However, while Turkey's
compound quarterly score has improved somewhat, its regional ranking has actually worsened to sixth (from fourth), overtaken by
Russia and Hungary. Globally, Turkey remains 26th of the 83 pharmaceutical markets surveyed by BMI. While a number of major
multinationals have indicated that Turkey is of major interest to them as a key emerging market, the recent pricing and reimbursement
reforms will continue to weigh on the growth of market values, as will shortcomings in its intellectual property (IP) environment.
In fact, during the most recent European Union (EU)-Turkey Association Council's meeting, the EU backed Turkey's constitutional
amendments, a small step on the long road to accession. However, despite some positive moves, the EU stated concerns over many
aspects of Turkey's business environment, including the pharmaceutical industry. The EU called for Turkey to establish legal certainty
on regulatory data exclusivity, a theme also raised by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA)'s
Special 301 report for 2010, which placed Turkey on the Priority Watch List. The EU has also requested that Turkey suspend new
requirements on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP), as they impose a 'de-facto ban' on imports of certain products, instead
suggesting that Turkey develop its capacity in-line with international harmonisation initiatives for GMP.
Turkey's pharmaceutical market was valued at TRY16.8bn (US$10.83bn) in 2009, making it the 14th largest market globally. Despite
a blip in growth expected in 2010, through to 2014, we forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of % in local currency (and of
% in US dollar terms), with the market reaching TRY24.25bn (US$20.38bn) at consumer prices. While the development of the
generics segment will be stimulated by cost-containment pressures, international standards and IP protection requirements should
also work in favour of patented drugs, which are expected to largely retain their share of the total market by value at the same level as
in 2009.
In the meantime, the economic rebound expected for Turkey should also stimulate the development of the pharmaceutical market ' in
both volume and value terms ' once the effects of the 2009 pricing and reimbursement changes are fully digested. We stand by our
view that Turkey is among the best positioned emerging markets over the long run. Turkey's domestically-oriented economic
structure, diversified industrial sectors, healthy local capital market, pro-reform government and greater leverage potential all suggest
that the economy is set to outperform its core emerging European peers, which are some of the other factors providing a solid base
for investment in the country's pharmaceutical market.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .5
SWOT Analysis ......... 6
Turkey Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT ............ 6
Turkey Political SWOT ..... 7
Turkey Economic SWOT ... 8
Turkey Business Environment SWOT .............. 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings 9
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q410 ...... 9
Rewards ........... 10
Risks . 11
Turkey Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5

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Turkey - Market Summary ..... 12
Regulatory Regime . 13
Intellectual Property Regime ......... 14
Intellectual Property Shortcomings .............. 15
Counterfeit Drugs ........... 16
Recent Developments Regarding Counterfeit Drugs .... 18
Pricing Regime 19
Table: Turkish Pharmacy & Wholesale Mark-Ups ...... 21
Reimbursement Regime ... 21
Industry Developments ......... 24
Epidemiology ... 24
Table: Disease Burden In Emerging Europe 25
Non-Communicable Diseases ........ 25
Communicable Diseases . 26
Healthcare Sector ........... 27
Healthcare Expenditure .. 27
Healthcare Sector Reforms ............ 28
Health Insurance ............ 29
Private Healthcare Sector .............. 30
Medical Tourism ............. 31
International Cooperation ............. 31
Research & Development Sector ... 32
Table: Turkey's 2008 R&D Law .... 33
Clinical Trials Industry ... 34
Medical Devices Industry .............. 34
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 36
Overall Market Forecast . 36
Key Growth Factors ' Industry ...... 38
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic ........ 40
Table: Turkey ' Economic Activity 43
Prescription Drug Market Forecast .............. 44
Patented Drug Market Forecast .... 46
Generic Drug Market Forecast ...... 47
OTC Medicine Market Forecast .... 48
Medical Device Market Forecast ... 50
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast .... 51
Other Healthcare Data ... 53
Key Risks to Forecasts .... 53
Competitive Landscape ........ 54
Pharmaceutical Sector .... 54
Table: Top 10 Pharmaceutical Companies In Turkey By Market Share, MAT July 2008 ......... 56
Domestic Industry ........... 57
Foreign Industry ............. 57
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments .............. 58
Pharmaceutical Retail And Distribution ....... 60
Company Profiles ... 62
Indigenous Companies .... 62
Abdi 'brahim .... 62
Eczaciba'i Pharmaceuticals .......... 64
Sanovel Pharmaceuticals 67
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EastPharma (formerly Deva) ......... 69
Fako (Actavis) .. 72
Biomeks ........... 74
Multinational Companies 75
Novartis ........... 75
Sanofi-Aventis .. 77
GlaxoSmithKline ............. 79
Pfizer 80
Roche 82
AstraZeneca ..... 84
Bayer 85
Merck & Co ..... 87
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data . 88
Section 1: Population ...... 88
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 88
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 89
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ........... 89
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ........ 89
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 .. 89
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .......... 90
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ... 90
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) ........ 90
BMI Methodology ... 91
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ....... 91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92
Ratings Overview ............ 92
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .......... 93
Weighting ......... 94
Table: Weighting Of Components .. 94
Sources ............ 94
Forecast Tables ...... 95
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