The Solar Power Generation Technologies Market Outlook: Market overview, photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies, capacity, generation, legislation, and the future outlook

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The Solar Power Generation Technologies Market Outlook: Market
overview, photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies,
capacity, generation, legislation, and the future outlook
Published on October 2009

Report Summary

Solar energy holds high potential for utility-scale power generation. It is estimated that solar energy received by the earth in a year,
has the potential to provide 1,000 times of total annual world energy consumption, though it contributes only 0.02% of world's total
power, as the technology continues to be predominantly unexplored. Solar power generation technologies can primarily be
segregated into two categories. The first is direct solar technologies (also called solar cell or solar photovoltaic) which generate
electricity directly from the sunlight. The second are indirect technologies (also called concentrated solar power technologies) which
use the heat of the sunlight to generate electricity.

Currently, both direct solar technologies and indirect solar technologies deliver efficiencies ranging from 12'15%. However, direct
solar technologies are preferred for installation due to better government incentives. Currently, the most prominent types of direct
solar technologies are crystalline solar PV and thin-films. Crystalline solar PV holds close to 85% of the total market share, leaving the
remainder to thin-films. The growth of indirect solar technologies is expected to have large volume growth in the future on the grounds
of low cost of power generation and integration with heat storage systems such as molten salt. The report provides insight on solar
power generation technologies, recent developments, legislative framework in various regions and the future outlook.

Key findings of the report

In 2009, investment in renewables was US$150bn, with growth of 25% over 2008. Germany, China, and the US were the largest
investors in the renewables in 2009.

The global solar power installed capacity grew at CAGR of 29.3% from 1996'2009 which grew rapidly from 2004 when Germany's FiT
scheme became effective and led to large number of additional solar PV installations.

Government incentives and mandates worldwide are the key driver for growth in solar power. For instance, Germany's policies
(including feed-in-tariffs and solar building codes) have attracted significant investments and facilitated the installation of over 9GW of
solar power generation capacity in the country by the end of 2009. The incentives for solar power can be divided into feed in tariff,
grants and subsidies, and tax credit.

According to projections by the EPIA's moderate scenario, which is based on prevailing legislative framework, the world cumulative
solar PV installed power generation capacity may reach 76.6GW by 2014, while cumulative CSP plant installed power generation
capacity may reach 12.7GW by 2015.

Use this report to...

' Analyze the potential of solar power compared to other renewables regarding installed capacity, investment, growth, and economics.
' Achieve a comprehensive understanding of solar power generation technologies working principles, installed capacity, and
efficiencies.
' Comprehend current developments in each of the solar power technologies along with major players, and economics.

The Solar Power Generation Technologies Market Outlook: Market overview, photovoltaic and concentrating solar power technologies, capacity, generation, legislation, Page 1/10
and the future outlook (From Slideshare)


' Assess the potential of solar power technologies in various regions including Europe, North America, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, the
Middle East, and Africa ' covering installed capacity, legislative framework, drivers, resistors, and the future outlook.
' Understand the future growth trend for prominent solar power technologies with projected installed capacity by technology

Explore issues including...

High cost of installation and generation: Solar power technology such as solar PV panels is comparatively expensive which restricts
its growth among renewables. Solar panels are considerably expensive to produce due to high material costs and the cost of
electricity generation through these panels increases as large arrays of solar panels are needed to provide a sufficient level of
electricity.

Inconsistent load profile: Solar power technology relies on the steady delivery of sun rays to generate electricity which results in
inconsistent load profile as it is unable to supply power on a consistent basis.

Limited number of high insolation areas: Limited number of high insolation regions will continue to restrict the growth of solar power.
Only around 55% of the Earth's surface (land) is ideal for solar power as unlike wind, solar plants cannot be installed offshore.

Relatively short operating life of CSP technologies: The short operating life of CSP technologies compared to solar PV is expected to
be a key resistor to its growth.

Discover...

' What are the drivers for solar power generation'
' What are the prominent solar power generation technologies in operation'
' What are the technological developments taking place in solar power generation technologies'
' What is the installed capacity, growth, and future outlook for solar power technologies'
' What are the growth potential of solar power technologies in global regions and how are they supported by the relative governments'

Table of Content

Table of Contents
Disclaimer 2
Executive summary 13
Market overview 13
Solar photovoltaics (PV) technologies 14
Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies 15
Solar power in Europe 16
Solar power in North America 17
Solar power in Asia Pacific 18
Solar power in Latin America 19
Solar power in the Middle East and Africa 20
Future outlook 21
Chapter 1 Market overview 22
Summary 22



Overview of the solar power market 23
Development of solar power technology 23
Growth of solar power 24
Solar resources 27
Installed power generation capacity and growth 29
Economics of solar power 32
Drivers for solar power 35
Energy security and climate change concerns 35
Government incentives and mandates 36
The Feed-in Tariff (FIT) 37
Direct subsidy on solar equipment 37
Tax Credit 38
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and Renewable Energy Standards (RES) 38
Technological developments 39
Resistors against solar power 40
Inconsistent load profile 40
High cost of installation and generation 40
Chapter 2 Solar photovoltaics (PV) technologies 42
Summary 42
Overview of solar photovoltaics (PV) technologies 43
Technology overview 43
Crystalline silicon (c-Si) cell 47
Single crystalline (sc-Si) cell 47
Multi-crystalline (mc-Si) cell 48
Crystalline cell projects 49
Thin-films 50
Amorphous silicon (a-Si) TFSC 51
Cadmium telluride (CdTe) TFSC 51
Copper-Indium-Diselenide (CIS) and Copper-Indium-Gallium-Diselenide (CIGS) TFSC 52
Thin-film projects 52
Concentrated PV (CPV) 52
CPV projects 53
Novel PV 53
Global solar PV production 54
Key players 59
Economics 61
Drivers for solar PV technologies 61
Flexible installation and capacity variation 61
Long life and durability 62
Global horizontal irradiation (GHI) vs. direct normal irradiance (DNI) 62
Continued R&D 63
Resistors against solar PV technologies 63
High generation cost 63
Inconsistent load profile 64
Chapter 3 Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies 65
Summary 65
Overview of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies 66



Technology overview 66
Parabolic troughs 68
Parabolic trough projects 70
Solar dishes 72
Solar dish projects 74
Solar towers 75
Solar tower projects 77
Linear Fresnel reflectors 79
LFR projects 80
Heat storage system 81
Pressurized steam-based heat storage 82
Concrete-based heat storage 82
Molten salt-based heat storage 82
Comparative summary for CSP technologies 83
Key players 86
Economics 87
Drivers for CSP technologies 88
Low cost of power generation 88
Heat storage capability 88
Resistors against CSP technologies 89
Inflexible installation and capacity variation 89
Relatively short operating life 89
Global horizontal irradiation vs. direct normal irradiance 90
Chapter 4 Solar power in Europe 91
Summary 91
Legislation 94
FIT and bonus 95
Tax credit 96
Grant and subsidy 97
Others subsidies and mechanisms for solar power 97
Drivers for solar power in Europe 98
The EU's carbon reduction targets 98
Energy security 98
Resistors against solar power in Europe 99
Low DNI levels 99
Solar power outlook for Europe 100
The EU 100
Germany 101
Spain 104
Italy 105
Solar power in North America 106
Summary 106
Legislation 111
The US 111
Grant and subsidies 112



Tax credits 112
Other subsidies and incentives for solar power 113
FIT 114
Tax credit 114
Canada 114
Grants and subsidies 115
FIT 115
Drivers for solar power in North America 115
Better financing to solar power projects as a result of economic recovery 115
Technological innovations 116
Resistors against solar power in North America 117
High preference for other renewable sources 117
Increasing energy efficiency 117
Solar power outlook for North America 118
Chapter 5 Solar power in Asia Pacific 120
Summary 120
Legislation 123
FIT 123
Tax credit 124
Drivers for solar power in Asia Pacific 125
Geographical advantage 125
Low cost of manufacturing 125
Resistors against solar power in Asia Pacific 126
Ambiguity compared to government policies 126
Solar power outlook for Asia Pacific 126
Japan 127
China 128
India 130
Chapter 6 Solar power in Latin America 133
Summary 133
Legislation 135
FIT 136
Tax credits 136
Drivers for solar power in Latin America 137
Government incentives 137
Resistors against solar power in Latin America 138
Better availability of hydropower and wind power resources 138
Solar power outlook for Latin America 139
Mexico 139
Brazil 140
Chapter 7 Solar power in the Middle East and Africa 141



Summary 141
Legislation 144
Africa 144
FIT 145
Grants and Subsidies 145
Tax Credit 145
The Middle East 146
Drivers for solar power in Africa and the Middle East 146
Geographical advantage 146
Resistors against solar power in Africa and the Middle East 147
Lack of government incentives and mandates 147
Solar power outlook for Africa and the Middle East 147
Africa 147
Algeria 147
Egypt 148
Morocco 149
South Africa 149
The Middle East 149
UAE 150
Israel 150
Chapter 8 Future outlook 152
Summary 152
Global solar power 153
Solar PV outlook 154
Concentrating solar power (CSP) outlook 157
Glossary 162
Abbreviations 162

Table of figures
Figure 1: Global investment in renewables 2008 (US$bn), 2009 25
Figure 2: Global insolation map (hours), 2008 29
Figure 3: Global cumulative installed renewable power generation capacity 2007'09 (GW), 2010 30
Figure 4: Total global cumulative installed solar power generation capacity 1996'2009 (MW), 2010 32
Figure 5: Average installation cost by source of electricity (US$/kW), 2010 33
Figure 6: Power generation cost by power source (US$/MWh), 2010 35
Figure 7: Solar cell working principle, 2010 44
Figure 8: Band gap of key semiconductors used in solar cell (eV), 2007 46
Figure 9: Single and multi crystalline solar cells, 2008 48
Figure 10: Spain's Olmedilla photovoltaic park, 2009 50
Figure 11: Amorphous silicon (a-Si)-based TFSC, 2009 51
Figure 12: Global solar PV production 2004'08 (MW), 2010 55
Figure 13: Global solar PV production by country 2008 (%), 2010 56
Figure 14: Global cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 58
Figure 15: Top 10 solar PV manufacturers by production in 2009 (MW), 2010 60
Figure 16: Global DNI map (kWh per meters squared per year), 2010 68
Figure 17: Parabolic troughs, 2008 69



Figure 18: Parabolic trough power plant principle, 2007 70
Figure 19: Aerial view of Solonova 1, 2, and 3 power plants in Spain, 2010 72
Figure 20: Solar dish, 2009 73
Figure 21: Maricopa solar plant, Arizona, 2008 74
Figure 22: Solar tower, 2009 75
Figure 23: Solar tower power generation through steam turbine, 2010 76
Figure 24: Working principle of solar updraft towers, 2010 77
Figure 25: PS10 and PS20 solar towers in Spain, 2009 78
Figure 26: Working principle of LFR plant, 2008 79
Figure 27: Aerial view of Kimberlina Solar Thermal Energy Plant, 2008 81
Figure 28: Global cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity 1996'2009 (MW), 2010 84
Figure 29: Installation and performance by CSP technology (%), 2009 86
Figure 30: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Europe 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 94
Figure 31: Projected renewable power generation capacity in the EU 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 101
Figure 32: Germany's target for renewables by 2020 (%), 2009 102
Figure 33: Projected installed renewable power generation capacity in Germany 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 103
Figure 34: Projected installed renewable power generation capacity in Spain 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 105
Figure 35: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in North America 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 108
Figure 36: Top 10 states by solar power installation 2009 (MW), 2010 109
Figure 37: Cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity in North America (MW), 1999' 2010 111
Figure 38: Forecast installed power generation capacity of solar PV in the US 2009'2014 (MW), 2010 119
Figure 39: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Asia Pacific 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 122
Figure 40: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Japan 2010'14 (MW), 2010 128
Figure 41: Projected cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in China by 2014 (MW), 2010 130
Figure 42: Targets for installed solar power generation capacity in India 2010'22 (MW), 2010132
Figure 43: Installed solar PV power generation capacity in Latin America (%), 2009 135
Figure 44: Cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in Africa and Middle East (%), 2009 144
Figure 45: Israel, cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity 2003'09 (MW), 2010 151
Figure 46: Share of solar power in global electricity generation 2009 & 2050 (%), 2010 154
Figure 47: Global installed solar PV power generation capacity 2010'2014 (MW), 2010 155
Figure 48: Global polysilicon supply 2010'12 (1,000 MT), 2010 157
Figure 49: Global total installed CSP power generation capacity by 2015 (MW), 2010 159
Figure 50: Global cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity by technology 2015 (GW), 2010 160
Table of tables
Table 1: Global investment in renewables 2008 (US$bn), 2009 25
Table 2: Global cumulative installed renewable power generation capacity 2007'09 (GW), 2010 30
Table 3: Total global cumulative installed solar power generation capacity 1996'2009 (MW), 2010 31
Table 4: Average installation cost by source of electricity (US$/kW), 2010 33
Table 5: Power generation cost by power source (US$/MWh), 2010 34
Table 6: Band gap of key semiconductors used in solar cell (eV), 2007 46
Table 7: Solar cell types, 2010 47
Table 8: Global solar PV production 2004'08 (MW), 2010 55
Table 9: Global solar PV production by country 2008 (MW), 2010 56
Table 10: Global cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 57
Table 11: Top 10 countries by cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity 2009 (MW), 2010 59
Table 12: Top 10 solar PV manufacturers by production in 2009 (MW), 2010 60
Table 13: Power generation cost by technology, 2010 61
Table 14: Cost comparison: CSP compared to solar PV technologies, 2010 63



Table 15: Comparative summary for CSP technologies 83
Table 16: Global cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity 1996'2009 (MW), 2010 84
Table 17: Installation and performance by CSP technology, 2009 85
Table 18: Key players in CSP technologies 87
Table 19: CSP technology-based power generation cost, 2010 88
Table 20: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Europe 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 93
Table 21: Projected renewable power generation capacity in the EU 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 100
Table 22: Germany's target for renewables by 2020 (%), 2009 102
Table 23: Projected installed renewable power generation capacity in Germany 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 103
Table 24: Projected installed renewable power generation capacity in Spain 2009 and 2020 (GW), 2010 104 12
Table 25: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in North America 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 107
Table 26: Top 10 states by solar power installation 2009 (MW), 2010 109
Table 27: Cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity in North America (MW), 1999' 2010 110
Table 28: Forecast installed power generation capacity of solar PV in the US 2009'14 (MW), 2010 118
Table 29: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Asia Pacific 1999'2009 (MW), 2010 122
Table 30: Cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in Japan 2010'14 (MW), 2010 127
Table 31: Projected cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity in China by 2014 (MW), 2010 129
Table 32: Targets for installed solar power generation capacity in India 2010'22 (MW), 2010131
Table 33: Installed solar PV power generation capacity in Latin America (MW), 2009 135
Table 34: Cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in Africa and Middle East (MW), 2009 143
Table 35: Upcoming ISCC plants in Algeria, 2009 148
Table 36: Israel, cumulative installed solar PV power generation capacity 2003'09 (MW), 2010 151
Table 37: Share of solar power in global electricity generation 2009 & 2050 (%), 2010 153
Table 38: Global installed solar PV power generation capacity 2010'2014 (MW), 2010 155
Table 39: Global polysilicon supply 2010'12 (1,000 MT), 2010 157
Table 40: Global total installed CSP power generation capacity by 2015 (MW), 2010 158
Table 41: Global cumulative installed CSP power generation capacity by technology 2015 (GW), 2010 160
Table 42: Select CSP projects in upcoming CSP markets, 2010 161


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