1. C A N M I L L E N N I U M D E V E L O P M E N T G O A L 1
S U C C E E D W I T H O U T S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
I N S U B - S A H A R A N A F R I C A ?
Research Proposal
August 9th
2014
CAN MILLENIUM DEVELOPEMNT GOAL 1 SUCCED WITHOUT SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPEMNT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA?

2. 2
Eradicating poverty is the greatest global challenge facing the world today and an
indispensable requirement for sustainable development. In this regard we are committed
to freeing humanity from poverty and hunger as a matter of urgency (United Nations,
2012)
I. Introduction
The following research focuses on the need for sustainable development in the
successful implementation of Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG1) in sub-Saharan
Africa. MDG1 aims to halve extreme poverty and hunger in the world by 2015. MDG1
was established alongside eight other MDGs by 191 United Nations (UN) member states
and the international community in 2000 with the aim being to accomplish all goals by
2015.
The UN defines sustainable development as “Development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own
needsʺ″. In 2012, UN member states added to the above definition created in 1987 to
include environmental, economic and social development, stating that the three areas are
fundamental to the full realization of sustainable development in developing countries
(United Nations, 2012).
Poverty rates in Africa have been on the decrease since 2005 (United Nations,
2013). However, man made disasters, conflict, political and economic instability in the
continent have hampered the continuous flow of such improvements, a factor that has
resulted to widespread hunger and poverty in the region. Not only this, but according to a
United Nations Development Programme report (UNDP, 2013) such adversities now
threaten to unravel the progress made on all the MDGs (UNDP, 2013). As such, it is of

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the utmost importance that sustainable development is placed at the forefront of the
implementation of Millennium Development Goal 1. This would ensure the continued
success of MDG 1 in Sub-Saharan Africa until the goal is achieved, rendering extreme
hunger and poverty a thing of the past in Africa.
Looking at the state of the world today, the 2015 target seems a far cry from what
the UN and the international community had envisioned in 2000, hence the creation of
the Post 2015 Development Agenda that seeks to fill the gaps. According to UN data,
MDG1 is actually five years ahead of schedule in the reduction of extreme poverty.
However, there are still over 970 million people living in extreme hunger, 100 million of
them being children under the age of 5 (United Nations International Children’s
Emergency Fund, 2013). The UN states that we are the very first generation that has the
potential to eradicate world hunger, which is why the world at large needs to not only pay
attention to the issue, but take action as well.
Current affairs have shown the interconnectedness of world we live in today. Events
happening in the Middle East such as the Arab Spring or the kidnapping of 300 girls in
Nigeria sparked international outrage, demonstrations and even executive action by
western leaders. President Obama sent troops to the region to help search for the girls
after the Nigerian government failed to do so (Cable Network News, 2014). The issue of
hunger and poverty is no different. This is not an issue unique to Africa, but rather a
global problem that needs a global response. My research question is, Can Millennium
Development Goal 1 succeed without sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa?

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To address this question, I will examine three areas that influence poverty and
hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa. The three aspects discussed in the course of this paper are:
environmental conservation, sustainable economic development and human security.
II. Literature review
Environmental conservation
The United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is one of the most
widely ratified treaties in the world. The treaty seeks to unite world governments in the
fight against climate change by working together to advance environmental protection
measures. However, environmental dilapidation has been on the increase contributing to
poverty and hunger. Sachs and Reid (2006) and Solheim (2010) conclude that poverty
reduction works in tandem with environmental management and conservation. The
authors claim that development goals cannot succeed without addressing environmental
issues such as droughts, crop failure, pollution and lack of access to clean water, among
other environmental ills that affect the poor who are most vulnerable to such disasters. As
a result, people will always circumvent environmental restrictions in their desperation to
access food, land and sustenance, which “coupled with the heedlessness of the richʺ″,
causes habitat degradation, species extinction and climate change. In turn, this creates a
cycle of poverty and environmental degradation that serves as a hindrance to the
eradication of poverty and hunger in sub-Saharan Africa.
More than 70% of the 1.1 billion people living on less than a $1 a day live in rural
areas where they are directly dependent on ecosystems for their survival (Sachs & Reid,
2006). According to Hanjra, Ferede & Gutta (2009), the lack of sustainable water

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resource management polices in such areas has been catastrophic to the rural poor in sub-
Saharan Africa. Less than 4% of renewable water resources are being utilized for
agricultural needs in Africa, with water deprivation mostly taking places in poverty
stricken areas that need it the most. Similar to Sachs and Reid (2006), Hanjra et al. (2009)
deduce that an expansion in irrigation schemes would increase agricultural production,
which would not only improve food security in most of sub-Saharan Africa, but also
gradually lead to economic development in the region.
However, Adams et al. (2004) hold a different view and state that although there is a
strong correlation between the lack of environmental protection and poverty, the elusive
nature of integrated policy strategies means that the two areas cannot simply combine
policies and expect to succeed in implementing MDG1. The authors believe that as
challenging as it is for sub-Saharan governments, clear conceptual frameworks first need
to be set in place so as to allow for policy integration between the environment and
MDG1. Rands et al. (2010) also cite the importance of recognizing biodiversity as a
global public good that needs to be integrated into policies and assessment frameworks
for resource production and consumption. If well implemented, this would change the
social and institutional composition of environmental laws in developing nations.
Solheim (2010) reports that incentivized policies would be the best approach to get
Less Developed Countries (LDCs) especially in sub-Saharan Africa to partake in
environmental conservation. The author found that large scale international capital
transfers could be used as compensation for reduced deforestation among other favorable
environmental practices. He deduces that in addition to pledging US$2 billion to forest
and climate initiatives, Norway is ready to release large scale funding to developing

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countries if they agree to trade off a certain percentage of their emissions quota and use
the revenue to help reach MDG1 through positive environmental practices. Ogutu (2011)
also theorizes that incentives are needed to address environmental issues that disrupt land
productivity, food production and distribution in sub Saharan Africa. The results of his
study indicate that emergency funds, disaster preparedness, adequate resources and
international goodwill are needed to curb environmental degradation.
Sustainable economic development
Unlike most scholars who typically address the challenges facing MDG1 from the
shortcomings of regional and/or national governments, Easterly (2009) and Fialho (2012)
claim that the UN is to blame for the unfair nature of the MDGs in African countries.
This is because they fail to take into account the income growth of African countries and
thus use unfair measures of performance that turn Africa’s successes into failures. Using
the lognormal theory, the authors maintain that countries with lower per capita income
require more economic growth to achieve the same rates of poverty reduction compared
to those with higher per capita income (Easterly, 2011)
Easterly (2011) theorizes that this is a factor the UN has repeatedly ignored when
measuring MDG1 progress in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2006, Africa’s growth stood at
5.4%, far behind the 7% annual growth needed to sustain poverty reduction efforts, thus
hampering the successful application of MDG1 initiatives. The 7% threshold is the top
tenth growth rate recorded for all world countries from 1965-2005. The author states that
expecting Africa to reach the threshold in 10 years is penalizing the continent for its
initial high rates of poverty (Easterly, 2011).

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Additionally, one of the “unfair measures” that Easterly (2011) talks about is that the
UN and the international community often ignore the effects of rising food and gas prices
on southern economies that typically have lower per capita income levels. The high rates
of hunger in sub-Saharan Africa have garnered the attention of researchers who warn
against the effects of such severe poverty in the region (Easterly, 2011). According to
Berazneva and Lee (2011), between 2006 and 2008, the increase in food and oil prices is
said to have increased global poverty by 3%-5% mostly affecting developing countries in
sub-Saharan Africa. The increase caused food riots in various African countries with as
many as 100 million being affected by food insecurity. The final analysis of their study
predicted that the number of those at risk of hunger is expected to rise 10% - 20% by
2050 with 65% of the increase being in Africa.
Bigsten and Shimeles (2007) fond that while the head count ratio of poverty for all
less developed countries dropped from 27.9% to 21.1% from 1990 to 2001, the ratio
increased from 44.6% to 46.4% in Africa. The scholars theorize that the attainment of
MDG1 is strongly dependent on a country’s income/inequality trade-off thus warning
against measuring success using growth rate measures only. The two find that growth
rates can be misleading because a slight decline in inequality might result to a significant
decrease in poverty. This creates the need to examine the growth-inequality-poverty
relationship empirically. Still, the biggest challenge facing sub-Saharan Africa is the
unstable nature of economic growth, a deterrent to the attainment of MDG1 (Bigsten &
Shimeles, 2007). However, Shawn (2011) believes that Africa is no longer as hopeless as
most scholars portray the continent. He claims that Africa is actually proving itself as an
emerging competitor in the global market. Africa is undergoing a renaissance that will

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propel African economies into competitive international political economies thus
succeeding in the development goals (Shawn, 2011).
Human security
Human security targets to strengthen people’s ability to realize their full potential
and achieve freedom from want. Human security is not only desirable, but also
imperative for the eradication of poverty and hunger in sub-Saharan Africa. The absence
of human security not only increases vulnerability for those living in such environments,
but also hampers access to aid for such populations. More often than not, extreme poverty
and hunger are caused by civil wars and other forms of violent conflicts that cause low
social capital (Pease, 2012). In Kenya where half the population lives below the poverty
line, post election violence in 2007 not only led to high insecurity, but also resulted in
internal displacement, loss of land and property, and further food shortages, which mostly
affected low income and impoverished rural areas. The instability only further
exacerbated an already dire situation in the advancement of MDG1 in the country (Office
of the High Commissioner on Human Rights, 2008).
Scholars are often at odds when analyzing the issue of conflict in relation to human
security, poverty and hunger. Empirical results reported by Hegre and Sambanis (2006)
concluded that overpopulation, political instability, low rates of employment, war prone
neighbors as well as strained economic opportunities give rise to armed conflicts thus
resulting in civil war, an analysis also supported by Anderson and Shimokawa (2008).
Other scholars such as Blattman and Miguel (2010) claim that although the above factors
play a role in creating instability in sub-Saharan Africa, they do not cause civil wars but
are rather the aftermaths of civil wars.

9. 9
According to Solheim (2010), poor countries are twice as likely to be affected by
armed conflict compared to their more developed counterparts. Ending armed conflict,
promoting human rights and gender equality from a grass root approach has to be the first
priority if peace is to be attained in the region (Aleyomi & IseOlorunhanmi, 2012 and
Norren, 2012). Today, nine out of ten armed conflicts are civil wars and mostly in
resource rich countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, the effects of conflict spill over to
neighboring countries in form of people seeking refugee, arms and resource smuggling
and insurgents escaping to neighboring countries has had an unfavorable effect on both
national and regional stability. This has created an even bigger challenge for the UN and
local governments in the advancement of MDG1 (Solheim, 2010).
III. Theory/ hypotheses
Theory
From the above literature, I theorize that there can be no success in the
implementation of Millennium Development Goal 1 that aims to cut world poverty and
hunger in half by 2015 without the three aspects of sustainable development i.e.,
environmental management and protection, sustainable economic development and
human security. Due to the broad and far reaching nature of the aforementioned topics, I
will hone in on specific issues that fall under each area to help keep my theory valid. The
independent variables (X) will differ while the dependent variable (Y) will be poverty
and hunger as shown below. I will introduce control variables (Z) once I am more
conversant with the variables in my datasets.
Hypotheses

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1. Environmental management and protection: CO2 emissions and climate change
continue to have an adverse effect on land productivity, access to natural resources and
food production. The first two hypotheses have positive relationships while the third one
has an inverse relationship.
• As the level of pollution through CO2 emissions X decreases → poverty and
hunger Y decreases.
• As the level of droughts and floods X deceases → poverty and hunger Y
decreases.
• As the population of people using improved drinking water sources X increases
→ Poverty and hunger Y decreases.
2. Sustainable economic development: In general, developing countries suffer from
unstable markets that contribute to economic stagnation. This is even worse in sub-
Saharan Africa where regional and national GDPs are below international standards
required for durable development. Also, existing disparities in poverty and income are yet
another major factor in economic development. I speculate that GDP and poverty will
have an inverse relationship while poverty headcount and an increase in poverty and
hunger would have a positive relationship.
• As GDP per capita X increases → poverty and hunger Y decreases.
3. Human security: Conflict has ravaged sub-Saharan Africa for so long that for some
countries, war has become a way of life. For others, the aftermath of war such as infant
mortality, unemployment and undernourishment are prevalent issues that are often
unaddressed. The first hypothesis has an inverse relationship while the second one has a
positive relationship.

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• As labor force participation X increases → poverty and hunger Y decreases.
• As malnutrition X decreases → poverty and hunger Y decreases.
Null hypothesis: Sustainable development has no effect on the success of MDG1.
IV. Methods/Data
I will use a mixed methods approach. For the quantitative data, I use two secondary
datasets and ten key informant interviews for the qualitative data. I will use UN data from
the United Nations MDGs Indicators data set that tracks the progress of all eight
development goals across the world by country. I will focus on MDG1 in sub-Saharan
countries to examine its implementation in relation to the three development aspects
discussed earlier in this research. The database contains over 60 Millennium
Development Goal indicators and was created in 2002 with the last update being in July
2014.
The aggregate country data found on the data set is a result of information collected
by various UN agencies, private and civil organizations, donors, national statisticians,
governments and expert advisors. Some of the data presented on the data set has been
adjusted to ensure comparability with international MDGs assessment measures. As a
result of the broad work involved in the millennium goals, a vast amount of methods such
as nationally representative household surveys, national census among other scientific
methodologies are used to collect data.
I will also use the World Bank’s World Development Indicator dataset (WDI) that
measures development in the continent. The dataset contains the most current information

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on 214 economies and is the primary source for the World Bank development indicator.
Similar to the UN, data found on the database is mostly an aggregate compilation of
information gathered by reputable international sources. The main sources of data
originate from World Bank country management units as well as from national official
reports. The database was created in 1960 and is updated on a quarterly basis with the last
update being in July 2014.
Information on variables
• Poverty: Measured using Purchasing Power Parity that is expressed as a
percentage of people living on $1.25 a day.
• CO2 emissions: The level of CO2 emissions is derived from the amount of CO2
found in national Green House Gas Emissions (GHGEs) measured in thousands
of metric tons.
• Droughts and floods: Measured as a percentage of population affected by extreme
climate change that affects land productivity and vulnerability of the population.
• Improved drinking water sources: Computed as the ratio of the number of people
who use improved drinking water sources to the total population, expressed as a
percentage.
• GDP per capita: Calculated as the gross domestic product divided by midyear
population expressed in U.S dollars.
• Labor force participation: Measured as a percentage of the population that
contributes to the supply of labor available for producing goods and services in an
economy.

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• Malnutrition: Prevalence of child malnutrition is the percentage of children under
age 5 whose height for age (stunting) is more than two standard deviations below
the median for the international reference population.
For the qualitative interviews, I will use; Skype, face to face and phone interviews. The
key informants will be divided into the following three groups
1. Scholars in the field who specialize in academic research focused on Africa. I
plan on reaching out to Dr. Andrea Mathie a DePaul professor who is an expert
researcher on sub-Saharan development, Dr. Michael Diamond, also a professor
at DePaul and expert in international affairs, development initiatives and
developing countries, Dr. Raphael Ogom also a professor at DePaul with
extensive knowledge on African affairs and political economies. Lastly, Dr.
Florence Kimondo a specialist in early childhood education in Africa.
2. People who work or have worked with non profit organizations that deal with the
same population group targeted by MDG1. One Potential key informant worked
for World Relief International and dealt with resettling refugees including some
from sub-Saharan countries. The other two not only work for international
organizations that fund development projects all across Africa, but also travel to
the continent on a yearly basis for both personal as well as work related reasons.
3. People living in Kenya and Tanzania who are most affected by poverty and
hunger. I have friends and family in both countries that can organize to have me
conduct the interviews via Skype, Google hangouts or over the phone.

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After collecting the required data, I will recode the quantitative as well as the qualitative
data on excel. I will then transfer the data unto SPSS where I will run a bivariate and
regression analysis to test the hypotheses. The analyses will provide statistical
information on the correlation, statistical and substantive significance among other
measures that will help assess the relationship between the various aspects of sustainable
development and the eradication of poverty and hunger in sub-Saharan Africa.
Predicted regression equation:
MDG1= a+ b1 (CO2 emissions) + b2 (droughts and crop failure) + b3 (improved
drinking water sources) + b4 (GDP per capita) + b5 (Labor force participation) + b6
(malnutrition) + error.
V. Feasibility
Due to the fact that I will be collecting secondary data and have easy access to key
informants, my research should be completed in the time allotted for the project. The only
problems that I might encounter would be a delay in scheduling interviews with key
informants or not getting a response from them.
VI. Plan B
If I do not get access to my initial pick of key informants, I will seek out new
contacts. This should not be an issue due to my expansive network within African
communities both in the U.S and overseas.

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VII. Timeline
Week
1:
(a)
Conduct
peer
reviews
and
edit
my
paper
for
approval.
(b)
Schedule
interviews
with
some
of
the
key
informants.
Week
2:
(a)
Reach
out
to
the
key
informants
that
I
haven’t
already
scheduled
interviews
with.
(b)
Conduct
three
interviews
with
those
that
I
have
already
scheduled
to
interview
in
person
and
via
phone
and
Skype.
Week
3:
(a)
Begin
coding
the
independent
variables
in
SPSS.
(b)
Conduct
three
more
key
informant
interviews.
Week
4:
(a)
Begin
coding
Dependent
variables
into
SPSS.
(b)
Conduct
the
remaining
interviews.
Week
5:
(a)
Code
qualitative
data.
(b)
Analyze
control
variable.
Week
6:
(a)
Run
regression
analysis.
(b)
Prepare
for
presentation.

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Week
7:
(a)
Finalize
presentation.
Week
8:
(a)
Presentation
week.
Week
9:
(a)
Continue
running
statistics
to
finalize
research
(b)
Make
final
edits
to
the
research
Week
10:
Review
finalized
research
and
submit.
VIII. Ethics
I will abide by all ethical standards set forth by DePaul University Research polices,
and those of the Institutional Review Board. I have completed the CITI training and will
follow the guidelines I learned from the training to conduct my research.

17. 17
IX. Appendix
Key informant questionnaire
Hello, my name is Regina Kinyui and I am a graduate student at DePaul University. I am
conducting a research study on the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goal 1 that
targets to eradicate extreme hunger and poverty in the world by 2015. Specifically, the
research focuses on the role of sustainable development in the success of MDG1 in sub
Saharan Africa. You have been selected to participate in this voluntary research due to
your knowledge and experience in African affairs. The interview will only take 15-20
minutes. Your participation will be completely confidential. Thank you in advance for
your participation.
Interview questions
1. How conversant are you with the United Nations’ Millennium Development
Goals (MDGs)?
2. Do you think poverty and hunger are a major issue for most people in Africa?
3. What do you know about MDG1?
4. Looking at poverty in sub-Saharan countries, what changes or policies do you
think are needed to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in individual countries?
5. Do you agree or disagree that sustainable development1
is necessary for the
success of MDG1? State your reason.
6. How important do you think the following three are in the successful
implementation of MDG1? Very important, important or not important at all.
(a) Environmental management and preservation
1
Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs (United Nations, 2010).

18. 18
(b) Sustainable economic growth
(c) Human security
7. What do you think causes human insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa?
8. Do you think it is possible to eradicate extreme poverty and hunger in
(a) The world
(b) Africa
(c) In sub-Saharan Africa?
Explain your answer
9. Have you noticed any increase or decrease of poverty and hunger in sub-Saharan
Africa since 2000?
Additional question for group three interviewees.
10. What would you say is the biggest obstacle you encounter on a daily basis?
11. What is the longest period of time you have ever gone without food?
12. How much money do you earn in a day or month?
13. Has climate change affected you in anyway? i.e., are you or have you ever been
susceptible to droughts, floods or any such climatic changes that left you
vulnerable?
14. Has MDG1 affected you in anyway? Explain how.
15. In your own opinion, what do you think is the best approach to eradicating
poverty and hunger in the country you live in?

19. 19
References
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Africa. Journal of African Economies, 20 (1), 100-141.
Adams, W. M., Aveling, R., Brockington, D., Elliott, J., Hutton, J., Roe, D., & Wolmer,
W. (2004). Biodiversity conservation and the eradication of poverty. Science, 306
(5699), 1146-1149.
Aleyomi, M. B., & IseOlorunkanmi, J. O. (2012). Africa and the Millennium
Development Goals: Constraints and Possibilities. Journal Of Alternative
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Andersen, P. P., Shimokawa. S. (2008). Do poverty and poor health and nutrition
increase the risk of armed conflict onset?. Food Policy, 33(6), 513–520.
Berazneva, J., Lee. D. (2011). Explaining the African food riots of 2007 – 2008: An
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Bigsten, A., & Shimeles, A. (2007). Can Africa reduce poverty by half by 2015?.
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57.
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