This document discusses several key issues related to global energy sources, demand, and sustainability:
1) Peak levels of fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal may be reached within the next few decades, between 2010-2080.
2) Meeting growing global energy needs will require a combination of fossil fuels, renewables, and nuclear power given world population and consumption trends.
3) Water use for energy production competes with other needs like food and drinking water supply.
4) Over 1.6 billion people lack access to electricity, mostly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, and 2.4 billion rely mainly on burning biomass like wood and manure.
2012 Reenergize the Americas Keynote: Abbas Ghassemi
1. Energy- sources, availability, demand, affordability,
delivery
Sustainability and Water
2. Millions of Barrels per year
Peak
Oil World
What is the problem?
Our energy needs fall into two categories:
• Power
• Transportation
Both are presently dominated by fossil fuels but can be met with a realistic combination of fossil,
renewable and nuclear.
The pressing issues:
• Water use in Energy Production- competing with food production and
water supply demand
• World peak oil (gas and even coal) scenarios
oil ~ 2010-2020 gas ~ 2030-2050 coal ~ 2060-2080
3. World Population and Energy Needs
12 1400
Energy Consumption (Qbtu / yr)
World
10 Population 1200
Population (Billions)
8 1000
World Energy 800
6 Consumption
600
4
Population of
400
2 Industrialized Countries
200
0 0
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
4. 40 40
historic
projected
(trillion kilowatt-hours per year)
World Power Consumption 30 30
20 20
World presently at
15 trillion kWhrs/year
10 10
U. S. presently at
4 trillion kWhrs/year
1980 2000 2020 2040
5. Access to energy is essential to quality of
life CA France
Japan
Human Development Index (H D I)
1.0
UK
U.S.
able
stain cal
Su thi Canada
and
e Germany
Russia Australia
0.8 China
Iran
Indonesia
0.6 India Prosperity
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea Education
Angola
Life span
Ethiopia
0.4
Niger
4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
Annual Electricity Use (kWh/Capita)
80% of the world’s population of over 6 billion people is below 0.8 on the
U.N. Human Development Index (HDI)
Source: United Nations Development Program; McFarlane 2006
6. Energy Issues
Map of Global Energy Poverty
1.6 billion people have no access to electricity,
Source: McFarlane 2006
80% of them in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
2.4 billion people burn wood and manure as their main energy source.
8. Worldwide (2010)
United States
45% coal
20% gas
20% nuclear
10% hydroelectric
oil
hydro 5% other
gas
California New Mexico
20% coal 80% coal
nuclear
40% gas 15% gas
13% nuclear 5% other
coal 17% hydroelectric
10% other
European Union
28% coal
20% gas
30% nuclear
Others 10% hydroelectric
5% oil 7% other
India
75% coal
petroleum 2% nuclear
20% hydroelectric
3% other
9. US energy demand projection
EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2012 and EPRI
Electricity generation by fuel, 1990-2035 (TWh per year) (Image: EIA)
10. Energy Returned On Investment
relative to 1 (similar to the value EROEI)
100
100
80
80
60
EROI
40
30 30
27
20 20
20 15
5 3
1950 2000 1930 2000 2000 2010
Coal Oil Gas
Oil
sands
11. Construction costs have skyrocketed for all alternative energy sources
Manhattan Island
= 59 miles2 36 miles2
124 miles2
Wind
$11 cf = 30%
$10 Solar
0.6 miles2
$10 b cf = 20%
Billions of Dollars
$9 Nuclear
cf = 90% $9 b
$8
$7
$8 b
$6
$5
$4
$3
$2
$1
2009 Construction Costs and Footprint to produce similar power
installed capacity x capacity factor (cf) = 1200 MW average production
12. Smart Grid = Technology, Policy…
Source: ISO New England
This is the world energy consumption curve, and will determine the more important aspects of our economic, environmental and political future. The green line is the historic use up to the present and the red is the projected use based upon United Nations population estimates and Deutch and Moniz (2006) assumptions for per capita increases in both developed and developing countries . Global electricity use recently passed 15 trillion kilowatt-hours per year and is projected to double by 2040.
If you look at the United Nations Human Development Index, which is an excellent indication of the quality of life that most humans aspire to, you can see most western countries are in the energy fat region, and we can certainly afford to conserve, buy compact fluorescence, hybrid cars, etc., so that we could drop back to where the British are which is pretty efficient overall. But there is not even a billion people in this energy fat zone. The other 5 billion are in the lower zone and they desire, and will get to, this zone, one way or another. And it will be primarily by using fossil fuel. That is what we have to change if we have any chance of reaching our goal of sustainability
. The present world energy distribution falls into two categories - power and transportation - and looks like this. It is very dependent upon where you live. Transportation is almost completely petroleum-based. For power, the U.S. is basically 70% fossil fuel, 20% nuclear and a little bit of everything else. New Mexico, where we live, is almost all coal. New Jersey has the highest percentage of nuclear in the U.S., and California is the most diversified, but it also has the highest cost for electricity in the U.S. Europe is a little better - more nuclear (because of France) less coal and more hydroelectric.
Another way to look at costs is the Energy Return on Energy Invested, or the traditional ratio of Energy Return on Investment, shown here. It is the ratio of energy invested to energy returned from that source and the larger the number the better the value, the closer to one the more it is of no use. It is no wonder that when fossil fuel came on the scene in the early 20th century the return was enormous, and our entire economy became fueled by fossil fuel, and our standard of living increased proportionately. Of course, this was the most easily recoverable deposits. [click] As time went on, it became more difficult to recover the material, took more energy and effort and the return was less. Developing the unconventional sources such as oil sands, coal liquification, and others drops the return even more. Ethanol production is the least effective of all and barely manages to exceed one. [click] Biodiesel is slightly more effective, and if oil-rich sources such as algae are used, or bio-engineering for cellulosics is successful, the return increases significantly, but never to the level of conventional fossil fuel. [click] Nuclear increases significantly after 1990 because of increases in efficiency and capacity, standardizing of designs, and increased design life. [click]