Pôster apresentado no CRICS10, no eixo temático de Políticas, estratégias e decisões informadas por evidências

1. Climate change and internal displacement in
countries of Latin-America and the Caribbean:
Analysis of empirical data and policies
Roberto Ariel Abeldaño, BSc, MPH, PhD.
University of the Sierra Sur, Oaxaca, Mexico.

2. Background
• Enough evidence of the climate change impacts on the sustainable development of countries has
been recorded in the last two decades.
• Specially in less-developed countries, climate change is producing an increasing number (and
intensity) of disasters, deriving in the loss of human lives, physical assets and environmental capital.
• This is particularly relevant in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Given the specific geographic
features of the region, we expect a trend of higher frequency and intensity of disasters.
• Besides the human deaths and economic costs, the effects of disasters include damages to
infrastructure and housing, making internal displacement one of the most common and immediate
impacts of disasters in the population of our region.
• Internal displacement limits post-disaster recovery and restoration.
Adger, Huq, Brown, Conway, & Hulme, 2003; Daoud, Halleröd, & Guha-Sapir, 2016; Swart, Robinson, & Cohen, 2003; Abeldaño Zúñiga & González Villoria,
2018; Kolmannskog & Trebbi, 2010.

3. Objectives
• Analyze the accuracy of the Global Internal
Displacement Database.
• Describe the magnitude and duration of
internal displacements due to disasters in LAC
countries between 2013 and 2015.

4. Methods

5. Table1. Disasters classification according to Em-Dat Database. Centre for Research on
the Epidemiology of Disasters – CRED. School of Public Health. Université Catholique
de Louvain.
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters - CRED, School of Public Health, Université
Catholique de Louvain. 2016.
Origin Type
Geophysical
Earthquake
Volcanic activity
Mass movements
Meteorological
Storms
Extreme temperatures
Hydrological
Floods
Landslides
Wave action
Climatological
Drought
Wildfires

6. Criteria for assessing IDMC global
database accuracy
1. Internal displacement Start-date: accuracy reported in
the database (day/month/year).
2. Internal displacement End-date: accuracy reported in
the database (day/month/year).
3. Global accuracy of the records: Start-date + End-date
accuracy reported in the database.
4. The unit of measurement reported for each event in
the database (household/person).

7. Results
• 505 events of internal displacement forced by
disaster situations were analyzed.
• 17 countries in the LAC region were affected
between 2013 and 2015.

8. Table 2. Accuracy of the start-date, end-date, global accuracy and unit of measurement of
internal displacements by countries. Global Internal Displacement Database 2013-2015.
Country
Start-date accuracy End-date accuracy Global precision Unit of measurement
TotalYes No Yes No Aggregated Household Person Other
Argentina N 13 5 13 5 12 1 17 0 18
% 72 .2 27 .8 72 .2 27 .8 70.6 5 .6 94 .4 0 .0 100
Bolivia N 8 1 6 .0 3 .0 6 5 3 1 9
% 88 .9 11 .1 66 .7 33 .3 66.7 55 .6 33 .3 11 .1 100
Brazil N 11 4 8 7 8 2 13 0 15
% 73 .3 26 .7 53 .3 46 .7 61.5 13 .3 86 .7 0 .0 100
Chile N 13 1 10 4 9 4 10 0 14
% 92 .9 7 .1 71 .4 28 .6 64.3 28 .6 71 .4 0 .0 100
Colombia N 357 0 149 208 149 353 4 0 357
% 100 .0 0 .0 41 .7 58 .3 41.7 98 .9 1 .1 0 .0 100
Costa Rica N 3 0 1 2 1 0 3 0 3
% 100 .0 0 .0 33 .3 66 .7 33.3 0 .0 100 .0 0 .0 100
Dominican Rep. N 8 0 7 1 7 2 6 0 8
% 100 .0 0 .0 87 .5 12 .5 87.5 25 .0 75 .0 0 .0 100
Ecuador N 5 1 3 3 3 2 4 0 6
% 83 .3 16 .7 50 .0 50 .0 50.0 33 .3 66 .7 0 .0 100
El Salvador N 4 0 4 0 4 1 3 0 4
% 100 .0 0 .0 100 .0 0 .0 100.0 25 .0 75 .0 0 .0 100
Guatemala N 8 1 6 3 6 3 5 1 9
% 88 .9 11 .1 66 .7 33 .3 66.7 33 .3 55 .6 11 .1 100
Honduras N 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 0 4
% 75 .0 25 .0 25 .0 75 .0 33.3 25 .0 75 .0 0 .0 100
Mexico N 10 0 6 4 6 1 9 0 10
% 100 .0 0 .0 60 .0 40 .0 60.0 10 .0 90 .0 0 .0 100
Nicaragua N 8 0 4 4 4 2 5 1 8
% 100 .0 0 .0 50 .0 50 .0 50.0 25 .0 62 .5 12 .5 100
Panama N 10 1 6 5 6 2 7 2 11
% 90 .9 9 .1 54 .5 45 .5 60.0 18 .2 63 .6 18 .2 100
Paraguay N 3 2 3 2 3 2 3 0 5
% 60 .0 40 .0 60 .0 40 .0 60.0 40 .0 60 .0 0 .0 100
Peru N 14 3 11 6 10 8 8 1 17
% 82 .4 17 .6 64 .7 35 .3 62.5 47 .1 47 .1 5 .9 100
Uruguay N 5 0 3 2 3 0 5 0 5
% 100 .0 0 .0 60 .0 40 .0 60.0 0 .0 100 .0 0 .0 100
Venezuela N 2 0 2 0 2 1 1 0 2
% 100 .0 0 .0 100 .0 0 .0 100.0 50 .0 50 .0 0 .0 100
Total
N 485 20 243 262 240 390 109 6 505
% 96 .0 4 .0 48 .1 51 .9 48.0 77 .2 21 .6 1.2 100

9. Table 3. Sources for calculation of average househoold size in LAC countries.
Country Sources Year Average household size
Argentina Census 2010 3.3
Bolivia Demographic YearBook UN 2012 3.5
Brazil Demographic YearBook UN 2010 3.3
Chile Census 2002 3.6
Colombia Demographic Health Survey 2015 3.5
Dominican Rep. Demographic Health Survey 2013 3.5
Ecuador Demographic YearBook UN 2010 3.8
El Salvador IPUMS 2007 4.1
Guatemala Demographic Health Survey 2014 4.8
Honduras Census 2013 3.9
Mexico Inter-census Survey 2015 3.7
Nicaragua Census 2005 5.2
Panama Census 2010 3.7
Paraguay IPUMS 2002 4.6
Peru Demographic Health Survey 2012 3.8
Venezuela Census 2011 3.3

10. Table 4. Frequency of events, displaced persons and duration of internal displaced
movement by countries. Global Internal Displacement Database 2013-2015.
Country
Number of
events
Percentage of
events
Total displaced
persons
Displaced days
(only in accurated events)
Sum Mean SD
Argentina 18 3 .6 75,393 11 .56 17 .54
Bolivia 9 1 .8 685,262 3 .50 4 .90
Brazil 15 3 .0 322,126 13 .36 22 .76
Chile 14 2 .8 2,038,973 9 .90 13 .48
Colombia 357 70 .7 125,047 2 .99 8 .88
Costa Rica 3 0 .6 1,122 5 .50 6 .36
Dominican Rep. 8 1 .6 54,844 3 .57 2 .70
Ecuador 6 1 .2 11,644 46 .00 51 .55
El Salvador 4 0 .8 4,918 1 .25 0 .50
Guatemala 9 1 .8 15,951 3 .57 3 .91
Honduras 4 0 .8 7,960 12 .00 -
Mexico 10 2 .0 267,472 4 .86 5 .40
Nicaragua 8 1 .6 38,952 5 .40 6 .02
Panama 11 2 .2 2,166 5 .57 7 .16
Paraguay 5 1 .0 432,005 21 .40 22 .96
Peru 17 3 .4 58,497 77 .58 138 .75
Uruguay 5 1 .0 29,501 22 .00 14 .73
Venezuela 2 0 .4 45,904 32 .00 19 .80
Total 505 100 .0 4,217,737 11.9 40.5

11. Table 5. Internally displaced persons and duration of the displacement by type of
disaster. Global Internal Displacement Database 2013-2015.
Disaster type
Displaced persons Displaced days
PercentajeSum Mean SD
Earthquakes and tsunamis 1,994,456 4 9.49 47.29
Volcanic eruptions 61,311 12.89 25.72 1.45
Mass movement 12,942 1.28 1.08 0.31
Not climate change related 2,068,709 6.1 12.1 49.05
Coldwaves 1,209 - - 0.03
Extreme temperatures 18,218 6 7.07 0.43
Flashfloods 20,039 - - 0.48
Floods 1,625,161 14.69 21.45 38.53
Hail 53 - - 0.001
Landslides 17,090 75.9 152.93 0.41
Mudflows 29,739 - - 0.71
River floods 92,561 27.2 25.82 2.19
Storms 195,662 5 4.02 4.64
Storm surges 2,264 2 0 0.05
Cyclons 400 - - 0.01
Hurricanes 97,350 1 0 2.31
Tornados 25,840 1 0 0.61
Wildfires 23,443 5.6 6.54 0.56
Climate change related 2,149,029 15.4 24.2 50.05
Total 4,217,738 13.0 21.2 100.0

12. Conclusions
• Climate change related disasters caused the greatest volume of internal displacement in LAC
between 2013 and 2015.
• The scenario for LAC is far from encouraging, because it is expected that the intensity and
frequency of certain natural risks to which regional population is exposed, will increase in the
next years.
• Regarding the data source, this study analyzed the accuracy of Internal Displacement Database
to measure the number of internal displaced population and to determine the beginning and
end dates of the recorded disasters.
• Despite the fact that no satisfactory indicators of accuracy were found, it is acknowledged that
this is the only data source available to provide the necessary information to monitor human
displacements due to disasters at the global level.

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14. Contact:
Dr. Roberto Ariel Abeldaño
Universidad de la Sierra Sur
ariabeldanho@gmail.com
National Research Council, Mexico
National Research Council, Argentina
Climate change and internal displacement in countries of Latin-America and the Caribbean: Analysis of empirical data
and policies
Abeldaño RA.
Heatlh, Society and Environment Research Group
Universidad de la Sierra Sur, México.