With increasing prevalence of top-up and unplanned purchases in metro and Tier1, convenience and speed of delivery have become important; super-specialized platforms have emerged to offer convenience and instant deliveries.

1. Quick-commerce
A $5 Bn Market by 2025

2. 2
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3. 3
Key Themes of the Report
Top-up and Unplanned purchases account for two-third of India’s
consumables spend
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Online and Gen-Z customers have significantly higher affinity for
Top-up and Unplanned purchases
“Quick Commerce” model emerged to disrupt the Top-up and
unplanned purchases
13% of the online transacting households are “Quick Commerce” addressable
and they spend USD 50 Bn on Top-up and unplanned purchases
“Quick Commerce” penetration within online consumables market
is ~7% and is expected to grow to 12-13% by 2025
Note (s): Quick commerce penetration to online consumables in 2025 is the base case forecast

4. Top-up and Unplanned
purchases account for
two-third of India’s
consumables spend
1.

5. 5
Consumables market in India is expected to become $~ 1 Tn by 2025
Indian Consumables Market Size & Growth(A)
USD Bn, CY 2016 – 2025 F
Increasing willingness & ability to pay premium
for superior quality products
Growing market for easy-to-cook foods and at-
home delivery, driven by increasing requirement of
convenient & hassle-free experience
Demand for healthy and nutritional food &
beverages, led by stronger focus on healthy
lifestyles & fitness
Rising consumption of newer items through
global experiences (e.g. meat, cereals with
breakfast, beverages with meal etc.)
+x% Indicates CAGR
578
753 725
985
2019
2016 2020 2025F
+9%
-4%
+6%
The consumables market saw a
dip in 2020, led by the reduction in
overall spending due to COVID
Consumables Spend
Per Capita (USD)B
437 557 531 670
As % of GDPB
25% 25% 27% 26%
As % of retailA
78% 75% 83% 62%
1.
2.
3.
4.
Growth Driver
Sources(s): A RedSeer IP; B. World Bank data

6. 6
Metro and Tier-1 cities would drive the market on the back of increasing spend
by mid to high income households; These households are convenience seeking and
spend across consumables categories
44%
2020
5%
51%
5%
2019
52%
6%
43%
51%
44%
~$ 77 Bn
5%
2021F
53%
42%
~$ 81 Bn
2025F
~$ 72 Bn
~$ 113 Bn
-6% +12%
+9%
Tier-1
(Next 40 cities)
7.0%
Metro
(Top 8 cities)
27.8%
7.7%
1.5%
39.0%
30.9%
19.9%
$ 48 Bn
$ 75 Bn $ 602 Bn
47.2%
8.6%
29.3%
31.4%
30.6%
13.4%
Tier 1
(Tier-2+)
~$ 72 Bn ~$ 113 Bn
$ 7500 -$ 15000
$ 15000 - $ 300000
$0 - $2500
$ 2500 - $ 7500 CAGR%, 21-25
$ 300000 +
X%
10%
7%
12%
Consumables market in Metro and Tier 1 – Mid to
High Income Cohort ( CY 2020)
Consumables market in Metro and Tier 1 – Mid to
High Income Cohort (CY 2025)
High growth in
2021 due to shift in
consumer spends to
in-house cooking as
dine-out was a
limited option in
cities due to
COVID.
Growth
driving cohort
-
High income
cohorts of
Metro & Tier
1
3.2% 2.6%
44%
2020
5%
51%
5%
2019
52%
6%
43%
51%
44%
~$ 77 Bn
5%
2021F
53%
42%
~$ 81 Bn
2025F
~$ 72 Bn
~$ 113 Bn
-6% +12%
+9%
Tier-1
(Next 40 cities)
7.0%
Metro
(Top 8 cities)
27.8%
7.7%
1.5%
39.0%
30.9%
19.9%
$ 48 Bn
$ 75 Bn $ 602 Bn
47.2%
8.6%
29.3%
31.4%
30.6%
13.4%
Tier 1
(Tier-2+)
~$ 72 Bn ~$ 113 Bn
$ 7500 -$ 15000
$ 15000 - $ 300000
$0 - $2500
$ 2500 - $ 7500 CAGR%, 21-25
$ 300000 +
X%
10%
7%
12%
Consumables market in Metro and Tier 1 – Mid to
High Income Cohort ( CY 2020)
Consumables market in Metro and Tier 1 – Mid to
High Income Cohort (CY 2025)
High growth in
2021 due to shift in
consumer spends to
in-house cooking as
dine-out was a
limited option in
cities due to
COVID.
Growth
driving cohort
-
High income
cohorts of
Metro & Tier
1
3.2% 2.6%
Indian Consumables GMV – Split by City and Income
In $ Bn, by %, CY 2020
Growth of Consumables in Metro & Tier 1 cities (Top 48 cities) –
split by income cohorts; In $ Bn, by %, CY 2020, 2021 F, 2025 F
Mid to high income households of Metro and Tier 1 (Top 48)
cities occupy >50% of the market in Top 48 cities
This segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9% from 2021-
2025 reaching ~$ 110 Bn by 2025
Note:1. Exchange rate: 1 USD = 70 INR
Source(s): Primary Research, RedSeer Analysis

7. 7
Mid to high income cohort in Metro and Tier 1 cities show
3 main purchase patterns
Indian Consumables Market - Typical Customer Use Cases
Mid-to higher income cohorts
75%
Once a
month
15%
Once in
2-12 months
Buy as
per need
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
10% 15%
55%
30%
70%
20%
10%
5 -10k ~10k 2-10k 50-300 ~450 ~800 < 500 ~700 ~700
Fruits
(1.5-3 kg)
Vegetables
(1 kg)
Daily Dairy
(500 ml)
Eggs
(1 dozen)
Bread
(1-2 loafs)
Fruits
(500 g)
Packaged Food
(150 g)
Alcohol
(350ml –1 L)
Tobacco
(1 pack)
Meat
(350-500 g)
Vegetables
(5 kg)
Daily Dairy
(0.5-2.5 L)
Beverages
(1.5 L)
Home Care
(850 ml + misc.)
Packaged Food
(400 g)
Personal Care
(200-500 ml)
Staples
(5 kg)
75%
Once a
month
15%
Once in
2-12 months
Buy as
per need
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
10% 15%
55%
30%
70%
20%
10%
5 -10k ~10k 2-10k 50-300 ~450 ~800 < 500 ~700 ~700
Fruits
(1.5-3 kg)
Vegetables
(1 kg)
Daily Dairy
(500 ml)
Eggs
(1 dozen)
Bread
(1-2 loafs)
Fruits
(500 g)
Packaged Food
(150 g)
Alcohol
(350ml –1 L)
Tobacco
(1 pack)
Meat
(350-500 g)
Vegetables
(5 kg)
Daily Dairy
(0.5-2.5 L)
Beverages
(1.5 L)
Home Care
(850 ml + misc.)
Packaged Food
(400 g)
Personal Care
(200-500 ml)
Staples
(5 kg)
75%
Once a
month
15%
Once in
2-12 months
Buy as
per need
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
Everyday Once/Twice
in a week
Once in
2 weeks
10% 15%
55%
30%
70%
20%
10%
5 -10k ~10k 2-10k 50-300 ~450 ~800 < 500 ~700 ~700
Fruits
(1.5-3 kg)
Vegetables
(1 kg)
Daily Dairy
(500 ml)
Eggs
(1 dozen)
Bread
(1-2 loafs)
Fruits
(500 g)
Packaged Food
(150 g)
Alcohol
(350ml –1 L)
Tobacco
(1 pack)
Meat
(350-500 g)
Vegetables
(5 kg)
Daily Dairy
(0.5-2.5 L)
Beverages
(1.5 L)
Home Care
(850 ml + misc.)
Packaged Food
(400 g)
Personal Care
(200-500 ml)
Staples
(5 kg)
Characteristics
Stock-up Top-up Unplanned Purchase
Frequency / Household
(Average Transaction value)
• Recurring bulk purchases for long term
consumption
• Dominated by Hypermarkets,
Supermarkets, Online platforms
• Everyday consumable items
• Day to day utility driven purchases (e.g.
cooking)
• Mostly dominated by Kirana and online
platforms
• Recurring bulk purchases for long
term consumption
• Dominated by Hypermarkets,
Supermarkets, Online platforms
Key Categories
(SKU size / transaction)
Sources(s): RedSeer IP and Analysis, Primary Research (IDI); N = 50

8. 8
Consumables GMV in Metro & Tier 1 (Top 48 cities) –By Customer use case
In % and $ Bn, CY 2020
Shift in consumer behaviour from value seeking to
convenience seeking has led to weekly, small sized
purchases compared to larger, monthly purchases
Big players like Big Basket, Grofers have reduced
delivery times, and helped in consumer education /
awareness about instant needs
Rise of instant delivery platforms like Dunzo,
Swiggy Instamart has allowed consumers to
complete top-up / unplanned (on-demand)
purchases within an hour of ordering
1.
2.
3.
These consumers make top-up / unplanned purchases much more than the rest of
the country. The trend is fuelled by the shift in consumer preference for bite-sized
offerings & improved supply side facilities of Quick deliveries (few hours to ~2 days)
$ 72 Bn
~35-40%
~60-65%
~30%
Overall
~70%
Metro & Tier 1
(Top 48 cities)
$ 725 Bn
CAGR %,
’20-’25
6.5%
9%
X%
6%
7%
Stock-up
Top-up &
Unplanned
purchase
Growth Driver
Sources(s): Census Data, RedSeer IP, Consumer surveys (Feb’20 – pre-COVID, Jun’20 – post COVID)

9. 9
3%
0.3%
94%
2019
0.5%
3%
8%
89%
2025F
2020
97%
$ 724 Bn
$ 985 Bn
0.1%
$ 578 Bn
2016
$ 753 Bn
5%
5%
95%
+9%
-4%
+6%
Online Unorganized (Kirana led)
Organized B&M
5%
16%
52% 1%
Metro
0%
5%
∑ = $ 3.8 Bn
82%
3%
75%
16%
Tier 1
20%
99%
Tier 2+
$33 Bn
∑ = $ 21.3 Bn
∑ = $ 700 Bn
$51 Bn $641 Bn
CAGR %, ’20-’25
India Consumables Market – by retail channel
USD Bn, CY 2016, 2019 & 2020
India Consumables Market – by retail channel and city tiers
USD Bn, CY 2020
In market currently dominated by unorganized channel, Organized retail has been
systematically gaining share in the market
3%
0.3%
94%
2019
0.5%
3%
8%
89%
2025F
2020
97%
$ 724 Bn
$ 985 Bn
0.1%
$ 578 Bn
2016
$ 753 Bn
5%
5%
95%
+9%
-4%
+6%
Online Unorganized (Kirana led)
Organized B&M
5%
16%
52% 1%
Metro
0%
5%
∑ = $ 3.8 Bn
82%
3%
75%
16%
Tier 1
20%
99%
Tier 2+
$33 Bn
∑ = $ 21.3 Bn
∑ = $ 700 Bn
$51 Bn $641 Bn
CAGR %, ’20-’25
Sources(s): RedSeer IP

10. 10
India Online Consumables GMV & Penetration
USD Bn, CY 2017 – 2020, 2025 F
Covid driven adoption towards convenience
has created a big surge in online consumables
purchase
Inconvenient offline transaction due to poor
transport, unavailability of selection will lead
to fast online GMV growth
Leading online grocery platforms have been
investing and optimising their supply chain
Rise of instant delivery (TAT <45 Min)
platforms allowed consumers to get unplanned
consumables within an hour of ordering creating
a disruptive alternative to Kiranas
1.
2.
3.
4.
Online Consumables market penetration to grow exponentially in next 5 years to
become $30+ Bn by 2025, ~50% of online market is expected to come from Metro
and Tier-1 cities
Country
Overall Tier-1
Metro
% share of
online
deliveries
0.5% 4%
6%
1.8%
2.8% 8%
~$ 0.7 Bn ~$ 1.2 Bn
~$ 2.0 Bn
~$ 3.8 Bn
2%
0
5
30
3%
35
0%
1%
2025
0.1%
3.0%
0.0%
2017 2018
0.5%
0.3%
2019 2020
~$ 30.5 Bn
Online Consumables market penetration
High Low
Online Consumables Delivery Market
CY 2020
Share of metro & Tier 1 cities
% online penetration – metro & Tier 1 cities
75% 50%
Consumables Online GMV Consumables Online penetration %
~2% ~7%
Growth Driver
Note (s): Consumables includes non-grocery categories like OTC medicines, tobacco etc.
Sources(s): RedSeer IP

11. 11
Major Presence Target Audience Customer Speaks
Stock-up Top-up Unplanned
Purchase
Major Value
Proposition
Main Use Case
Metro, Tier 1 &
Bharat (tier 2+)
Metro & Tier 1
• Speed & Convenience
• Trust & familiarity
• Local relevant product range
• Free home delivery: Credit
Purchase
• Convenience of ordering
• Doorstep delivery
• Discounts and offers
• Assortments across category
and fill-rates
• Convenience seekers
• Young generation new
households
• Local neighbourhood
• Mainly housewives and
old loyal customers
“I can order anytime via phone
call and my Kirana delivers,
also my husband can just
go and buy grocery anytime
required”
“As a working mother I like
to spend my weekends with
my daughter, online ordering
grocery helps me save time”
• Discounts and offers (Limited)
• Wider assortments across
categories and fill-rates
• Enables on-demand
consumption
• Instant & doorstep delivery
• Discounts and offers
• Assortment across categories
and fill rate
• Convenience seekers
• Young generation new
households
• Mid to high income
cohorts
• Variety seekers
• Discount seekers
• Shopping experience
“I like the whole experience
of shopping grocery as I see in
the mart, lot of options and
brands are available there”
“”One morning milk didn’t
come on the scheduled time so
I ordered on Dunzo. Since then,
most of my top-up groceries
are ordered here.”
Metro & Tier 1
Metro
Offline
Channels
Online
Channels
Channels available for shopping consumables
CY 2020
Online Quick Commerce targets top-up and unplanned purchases by solving Kirana
inefficiencies through instant delivery (TAT < 45 mins), convenience and reliability
Source(s): Primary Research, RedSeer Analysis
Local Kirana
Traditional
e-Grocers
Modern Retail
Quick Commerce

12. Online and Gen-Z customers
have significantly higher
affinity for Top-up and
Unplanned purchases
2.

13. 13
Key
Archetypes
Description
Consumables
Purchase Behaviour
Demo
graphics
Age
Income
Profession
of HH
members
Gen Z – Impulse purchasers Ambitious Millennials Gen X – Active Buyers Gen X – Passive Buyers
• Youngsters living alone or with
friends
• Social media and experiment driven
purchase decisions. Focus more on
convenience
• Active online shopper with a
convenience first shopping attitude
• Key factors considered while
shopping for consumables:
1. Speed of fulfilment
2. Convenience
3. Price / Discounts
• Early Stage Professionals in
Banking, Consulting, IT etc.
• Students (with a lower pocket
money)
< 25 years
INR 5 Lakh - 10 Lakh
35 years +
INR 10 Lakh - 2 Crore
25 - 35 years
INR 10 Lakh - 25 Lakh
45 years +
INR 10 Lakh - 2 Crore
• Matured professional living alone or
with spouse / friends
• Purchase decision driven by product
utility, quick and convenient
experience
• There is a rising shift towards
online channels for fresh and
staples on-demand and top-up.
• Key factors considered while
shopping for consumables:
1. Speed of fulfilment
2. Convenience
3. Product quality
• Young Professionals in Banking,
Consulting, IT Services, etc.
• Startup founders
• Typically, lives with spouse and
children
• Purchase decisions driven by family
aspirations and convenience
• Has a mixed purchase pattern
between Kirana stores, Super mart
and online platforms.
• Key factors considered while
shopping for consumables:
1. Convenience
2. Product quality
3. Assortments
• VP / Director / Senior Management
in Banking, Consulting, IT Services,
Medicine, etc.,
• Typically, a joint family / traditional
nuclear family
• Purchase decisions driven by family
aspirations and value (discounts)
• Shop from supermarkets and
Kiranas due to low tech adoption &
high trust on kirana.
• Key factors considered while
shopping for consumables:
1. Price / Discounts
2. Product quality
3. Assortments
• Family business owners
• Director / GM / Senior Management
in SMBs
Key Archetype – Overall Consumables Purchase Behaviour (mid to high income HH)
We identified 4 customer archetypes for consumables purchases in mid to high
income households within Metro & Tier 1 cities.
Sources(s): RedSeer IP and Analysis, Primary Research (IDI); N = 50
1 2 3 4

14. 14
Key
Archetypes
Wallet Analysis
(Overall)
Expected increase in
unplanned purchases
(2020 – 2025)
Gen Z – Impulse purchasers Ambitious Millennials Gen X – Active Buyers Gen X – Passive Buyers
High shift expected with the improvement in on-demand online consumables penetration
(Delivery speed and order convenience being the key criteria for benchmarking performance)
Moderate shift expected with the shift
in customer mindset
Key Archetype – Wallet Analysis (mid to high income HH)
Gen Z- Impulse Purchasers & Ambitious Millennials dominate in unplanned
purchases and their fulfilment methods are based on speed and convenience
Note(s): Numbers are indicative
Sources(s): RedSeer IP and Analysis, Primary Research (IDI); N = 50
1 2 3 4
~30%
~65%
~5%
~40% ~40% ~20%
~30% ~40% ~30% ~72%
~15%
~13%
Female Female Female Female
Male Male Male Male
Females enable
HH purchase.
Grocery stock-ups
/ Planned top-ups
are relatively
higher in such HH.
Higher unplanned
spends on snacks,
alcohol and
cigarettes.
Higher
share of
staples and
fresh
purchase in
females.
Snacks, Beverages
are key items with
little spend on
fresh / staples
Males enable HH purchases of
unplanned grocery. Stock-ups
are done by the house help /
males order it online.
Unplanned purchase Top-up Stock-up

15. 15
Key
Archetypes
Gen Z – Impulse purchasers Ambitious Millennials Gen X – Active Buyers Gen X – Passive Buyers
Key Archetype – Online Consumables Purchase Behaviour
Consumer behavior is shifting towards a higher share of top-up/unplanned
purchases
Sources(s): RedSeer IP and Analysis, Primary Research (IDI); N = 50
1 2 3 4
Arrows signify future change of use-case
Archetype Attractiveness
High Low
Quick Commerce Value Prop
Customer Speaks
Online grocery
purchase use
case
Willingness
to try online
deliveries
Top up spends
online
Stock-up
Top-up
Unplanned
Purchases
Tier 1
Metro
Tier 1
Metro
~ INR 4k / month ~ INR 7k / month ~ INR 3.5 k / month < INR 1.5k / month
~ INR 5k / month ~ INR 8k / month ~ INR 6k / month < INR 2.5k / month
Moderate – high Moderate – high Moderate Low
High Very High Moderate – high Low
Attractive cohort
Attractive cohort
.I don’t have to plan on what I want;
everything is instant. I get to explore new
instant noodles which otherwise I wouldn’t
have heard of, that too without stepping out..
We are quite satisfied with the online
services. I like the scheduled option very
much and its so punctual. My wife was
worried about the quality of veggies, but she
was happy when they got it.
We have been purchasing almost everything
online especially after the pandemic. What
we really like is the convenience of getting
everything on our door step. We have started
using online apps for most purchases
Because I know the shopkeepers, I have
trust. They give me offers and best quality
materials. I also like walking to nearby
kiranas, meeting people. I think I won’t get
same trust feel, personal connection, and
quality with online. Also, I am not tech savvy.
Attractive cohort Low attractiveness
Online purchases are mostly
top-up/unplanned with increasing
unplanned purchases
Online purchases are mostly top-
up with a trend towards unplanned
purchase
Online purchases are rare and
mostly unplanned with future
potential for top-up purchases.
Online purchases are a mix of stock-up
and top-up purchases at present with
fast growth of unplanned / emergency
purchase behaviour

16. 16
Purchase trend of Unplanned Consumables – Past 12 months
N = 706
Q. Have your unplanned consumables purchases increased in COVID lockdown
(last 12 months) ?
Q. How would your unplanned consumables purchases change in next 12 months?
Purchase trend of Unplanned Consumables – Next 12 months
N = 706
Customers increased their unplanned consumables purchases in last 12 months
and are inclined to further increase their unplanned purchases in future
Sources(s): Consumer surveys (June ’21)
28% 26% 29%
33%
28%
35%
30%
39%
27%
6% 7%
6%
N= 706
Age
< 25 years
2%
Overall
Overall
2%
1%
Age
> 25 years
N= 152 N= 554
33%
30%
34%
40%
37%
41%
27%
33%
25%
N= 152
N= 706 N= 554
Age
> 25 years
Age
< 25 years
Significantly increase
Decrease
Increase
Remain same Significantly decrease
• 73% customers
suggest that their
unplanned
consumables
purchase has
increased in the
past 12 months.
• 61% customers suggest
that their unplanned
consumables purchase
would increase in the next
12 months.
• This shift of trend is
realized due to:
- Shift in consumer
habits due to lockdown
(orders for cravings /
snacks & beverages
have increased)
- The rising speed and
convenience brought
by on-demand
platforms.
28% 26% 29%
33%
28%
35%
30%
39%
27%
6% 7%
6%
N= 706
Age
< 25 years
2%
Overall
Overall
2%
1%
Age
> 25 years
N= 152 N= 554
33%
30%
34%
40%
37%
41%
27%
33%
25%
N= 152
N= 706 N= 554
Age
> 25 years
Age
< 25 years
Significantly increase
Decrease
Increase
Remain same Significantly decrease
• 73% customers
suggest that their
unplanned
consumables
purchase has
increased in the
past 12 months.
• 61% customers suggest
that their unplanned
consumables purchase
would increase in the next
12 months.
• This shift of trend is
realized due to:
- Shift in consumer
habits due to lockdown
(orders for cravings /
snacks & beverages
have increased)
- The rising speed and
convenience brought
by on-demand
platforms.

17. 17
Primary mode of unplanned purchase
N = 706
Q. Where do you get most of your unplanned purchases from? Q. What are the top reasons for getting your unplanned purchases online?
Parameters to prefer online mode for unplanned purchases
Ranking, N = 166
Customers make unplanned purchases across retail channels. For customers
making unplanned purchase online, convenience of ordering and speed of delivery
are the most important criteria
Note (s): Customer research was conducted in Mid-to-high income household in Bengaluru, Delhi and Mumbai
Sources(s): Consumer surveys (June ’21)
Top 2 parameters
53% 50%
54%
28%
29%
17%
19% 21%
30%
Overall
N= 152
Mom-n-pop
stores
Supermarkets
N= 706
Online
N= 554
59%
41%
23% 21%
15% 13% 12%
24%
36%
31% 37%
39% 42%
26%
17%
23%
46%
42%
46% 45%
62%
Rank 3
Speed
Rank 2
Convenience Reliability
Rank 1
N= 13 N= 86 N= 31 N= 34
N= 59
N= 108
N= 103
Assortment
and
selection of
products
Doorstep
delivery
Price and
discounts
Age
> 25
Years
Age
< 25
Years
Multiple
payment
options
>50% customers feel
convenience, speed and
price / discounts are the
most important reasons
to prefer online channel
for purchase.
Top 2 parameters
53% 50%
54%
28%
29%
17%
19% 21%
30%
Overall
N= 152
Mom-n-pop
stores
Supermarkets
N= 706
Online
N= 554
59%
41%
23% 21%
15% 13% 12%
24%
36%
31% 37%
39% 42%
26%
17%
23%
46%
42%
46% 45%
62%
Rank 3
Speed
Rank 2
Convenience Reliability
Rank 1
N= 13 N= 86 N= 31 N= 34
N= 59
N= 108
N= 103
Assortment
and
selection of
products
Doorstep
delivery
Price and
discounts
Age
> 25
Years
Age
< 25
Years
Multiple
payment
options
>50% customers feel
convenience, speed and
price / discounts are the
most important reasons
to prefer online channel
for purchase.

18. 18
“Online Quick Commerce”
model emerged to disrupt
the Top-up and unplanned
purchases
3.

19. 19
Customer Experience • Personalized deal offerings (two-way
negotiation)
• Standardized discounts
• Website first approach
• Simpler user journey
• Smartphone first approach
Product Selection • Manage ~3,000-20,000 SKUs • Manage ~100,000 + SKUs • Manage focused set of 1500-2500 SKUs
Type of Fulfillment • Self owned stores (~2,500 Sq.ft.) • Large warehouses (~40,000 Sq.ft.) • Micro Fulfilment Centers (~1500-2,500
Sq.ft. each)
Fulfilment Time Self paced pick-ups 2 hours to 3 days Instant (20-45 mins)
Timeline Till 2016 2016 – 2020 ~2020 onwards
Customer Behaviour Value / Discount seeking behaviour Convenience seeking behaviour
Offline Commerce
Till 2016, consumables retailing was
mostly through Kirana stores, with
supermarkets as a rising trend.
Traditional e-Grocers
Driven by internet penetration and
eCommerce, consumables deliveries via
online platforms saw fast adoption in
Metro & Tier-1
Online Quick Commerce
Shift in consumer preference for instant
delivery of Top-up purchases and convenience
created - Online Quick Commerce
Evolution of Indian Consumables Market – By Fulfilment Channels
Metro and Tier-1
With increasing prevalence of top-up and unplanned purchases in metro and Tier-
1, convenience and speed of delivery have become important; super-specialized
platforms have emerged to offer convenience and instant deliveries
Sources(s): Primary Research, RedSeer Analysis
Key Players
servicing
the market
Performance across key parameters
Convenience stores Kiran Off-shops

20. 20
Customer Journey –Traditional e-Grocers vs Quick Commerce
Quick Commerce provides more convenience to customers with its curated
selection of products, instant and doorstep delivery,. - Unlike traditional e-Grocers,
Quick Commerce platforms have Simple UI and Instant delivery
Sources(s): Primary Research, RedSeer Analysis
• Planned monthly /
weekly stocking-up
• Unplanned urgent
consumption
• Routine daily/ weekly
needs
• Additional purchase after
stocking-up
• Searches multiple
websites and apps for
deals
• Directly opens preferred
app to purchase
• Multiple deal discovery
and variety offerings
• No additional deal
discovery activity required
for the goal-oriented
customer
Simpler user
experience in Quick
Commerce
• Completes payment;
• Searches coupons
• AOV ~ $ 12 - 15
• Completes payment;
• AOV ~ $ 6
• Orders flow from centralized warehouses to customers
• Delivery Time: 6 hrs. – 2 days
• Low reliability on timelines
• Orders flow from mini-warehouse / MFCs in neighborhood
or local Kirana to customers
• Delivery Time: 20-45 mins
• High reliability on timelines
Faster product delivery in Quick Commerce
owing to the Micro-Fulfilment Center based
model
Traditional e-Grocers
Quick Commerce

21. 21
Quick Commerce Landscape
Online consumables have followed four different models, of which “standalone”
and “Restaurant Aggregators” are well positioned to tap into the opportunity
Sources(s): RedSeer Analysis
Business Model
Best positioned for
“Quick Commerce
Market”
Key Players
Indian Global
Q-commerce Play and Synergy
• Specialized commerce platforms with a core focus on faster delivery
enabled by seller-operated micro fulfilment centers.
• Strong last mile network leveraged for order fulfilment.
Standalone
Q -commerce players
Restaurant
Aggregators
1
2
• Slotted / scheduled grocery delivery players having order processing
from centralised warehouse.
• Total order to delivery time ranges from 2-6 hrs
• Supply chain requires restructuring to be Quick commerce ready.
eGrocery
players
3
• eTailing players operating on slotted or express delivery model
with multiple movements between first mile, line-haul and last mile
capabilities.
• The slotted grocery delivery takes 90-120 minutes
eCommerce
Horizontals
4
• Seller operated model that leverage restaurant delivery fleet to drive
synergies in last mile
• Marketplace led-model that leverage restaurant delivery fleet

22. 22
Case study of leading players in Quick Commerce
Case study on leading Quick Commerce Players
Note (s): Indicators for number of dark stores and size of is by the end of June’21
Sources(s): RedSeer Analysis
Profile
Key Players Value Prop and Advantages
Pioneered on-demand delivery
in India
Dunzo
Top Indian restaurant
aggregator, focusing on on-
demand consumables
• Swiggy Instamart uses seller operated 34
dark stores across 6 cities in India
• Typical dark store size is 1800-2500 Sq. ft.
• Average order delivery time is 15-30
minutes
• Restaurant aggregator serving millions of
customers for food delivery
• Providing on-demand consumables
delivery to captive customers
• Their capability in last-mile delivery and
large fleet of riders to be on advantage for
the platform
• Dunzo operates in both seller-operated
dark stores and marketplace model
and is reducing their dependence on
marketplace model
• The platform has 18 dark stores in
Bangalore. Typical dark store size is
~1500-2000 Sq.ft.
• Average delivery time ~20 minutes
• Started as a service platform for anything,
delivered from anywhere to anywhere, it
has high customer satisfaction and loyalty
for the platform
• Positioning around faster and reliable
service is an advantage for the platform in
on-demand consumables market

23. 23
13% of the online
transacting households
are “Quick Commerce”
addressable and they spend
USD 50 Bn on Top-up and
unplanned purchases
4.

24. 24
Quick Commerce- Addressable Households
CY 2020 and 2025, Number of Households, Mn, N=2752 (consumer survey)
~20 million households are addressable by quick commerce in India with an
estimated addressable market size of USD~50 Bn in 2020
Note (s): Addressable market for Quick Commerce comprise of top-up and unplanned purchases of consumables by Mid-to high income households in Metro and Tier-1 cities
Sources(s): RedSeer IP & Analysis, Consumer surveys (Feb’20 – pre-COVID, Jun’20 – post COVID)
123.0
11.0
20.0
154.0
31.0
USD 2450 / Year /
HH
USD 49 Bn
Quick Commerce TAM
185.0
11.0
26.0
222.0
37.0
USD 2800 / Year /
HH
USD 77 Bn
Quick Commerce TAM
Online
Quick
Commerce
Addressable
HH
Metro & T1
HH earning
< $ 7500
p.a.
Transacting
HH in
Metro &
Tier 1
Transacting
HH
in Tier 2+
cities
Online
Transacting
• Growing number of unplanned purchases in urban households
• Shifting consumer preference towards convenience and instant
deliveries
• Generational habits shifting (Millennials to Gen Z) towards shorter
purchases and need for quick, on-demand services
• Increasing serviceability of quick-commerce in metro and tier-1
cities through multiple micro fulfilment centers
• Growing selection and assortments by multiple brand partnerships
Demand-side drivers
Supply-side drivers

25. 25
“Quick Commerce”
penetration within online
consumables market is ~7%
and is expected to grow to
12-13% by 2025
5.

26. 26
Sources(s): A RedSeer IP; B. World Bank data
Online Quick Commerce Market GMV and Forecast
In CY, For CY2020-2025E, By Scenario
Market growth will be driven by rising adoption of
quick-commerce among convenience seeking and
customers with unplanned ordering behavior
COVID led change in purchase behavior will
promote growth quick commerce as replacement of
Kirana purchase
Expansion to multiple cities in Metro and T-1 (top48
cities) from current level of 6 cities
1.
2.
3.
Quick-commerce market penetration is estimated at USD ~0.3 Bn in CY2021
and is expected to grow to 10 to 17x in next 5 years
CY2020 CY2021
~ 3.1 Bn
~ 1.5 Bn
~ 0.8 Bn
CY2025E
~ 0.1 Bn
~ 0.3 Bn
~ 5.3 Bn
+133% Conservative
Scenario
Base
Case
Aggressive
Case
+..%
2.6% 6.7% 10 to 17.5%
X%
Quick Commerce (%
penetration of online
consumables)
CAGR % (2021-25E)
+80%
+92%
+
1
0
5
%
Growth Driver

27. 27
Appendix

28. 28
Glossary of terms used in the document (1/2)
Terms Used Definition
Metro Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune
Tier -1 Cities other than Metros and with population above 1Million
Tier -2+ Cities, Towns, urban establishments with population less than 1 Million
Consumables Includes core grocery categories (Fresh, Staples, Packaged Foods, Beverages, Home Care and Personal Care), and Other Consumables (OTC, Alcohol,
Tobacco and Pet supplies)
Online retail E-commerce or e-tail including buying or selling of products online mainly through websites or apps.
Quick Commerce Online purchase of consumables that gets delivered within 50 minutes
Organized Offline
retail / B&M
Larger branded stores selling a wide assortment of products ranging from Food & grocery to fashion and BPC Includes formats like discount stores,
supermarkets, hypermarkets to specialty chains.
Unorganized retail Products being sold through Kirana stores aka Mom & pop stores and pop-up stores like Paan, beedi (Indian cigarette) shops.
Kirana Mom & pop stores & and pop-up stores – Category B, C & D retailers (< or = USD 30K monthly GMV)
Stock-up Purchases for stocking up of consumables and typically done on monthly basis
Top-up Consumable purchases typically made to replenish/ supplement stock-ups
Unplanned Purchases Consumables purchase typically made at the last moment / emergencies situations
GMV Gross merchandise value
CY Calendar Year (Jan-Dec)
FY From 1-April to 31-March the following year
CAGR Compound annual growth rate
INR Indian Rupee
USD/ INR Indian rupee(I USD = INR 70 – Average conversion rate for CY 19)

29. 29
Boundary Conditions
Approach for TAM: To estimate the total addressable market for Quick Commerce,
we look at 4 key levers – Reach, Access, Affordability and Non Stock-up spend
Note(s): 1. Households with annual disposable income less than USD 7500 have not been considered for Quick Commerce addressable market as their behaviour is more towards value/ discount seeking
2. HH refers to households
Sources(s): RedSeer IP & Analysis, Expert Discussions
Reach
We look at households in the top 47 cities in India as
serviceable cities for Quick Commerce
Access
We filter the households with internet access
Affordability
Households having average annual disposable
household income more than US $75001
Non Stock-up spend
Share of the consumables wallet spent on non-stock up
purchases in a HH
Total
addressable
market
2020 ~200 USD
Monthly Consumables
HH Spends
City-Tier No. of cities #Mn HH2
Metro
Tier 1
8
40
13
7
~49 Bn USD
20 Mn + Households

30. 30
Authors
ANIL KUMAR
Founder and CEO
Anil Kumar is the founder of Redseer Consulting. He has been part of engagements in Internet, Private Equity, Retail CPG and Healthcare among others.
He specializes in growth and investment strategies. Anil is a believer of the data-driven approach in solving business problems. His consulting approach
leverages Data IP, sector expertise and the client’s core hypotheses. He holds a B.Tech from IIT-Delhi.
He can be reached at anil@redseer.com
MUKESH KUMAR
Engagement Manager
Mukesh Kumar is the engagement manager at RedSeer and has 7 years of experience in growth strategy engagement across internet, education, healthcare,
and consumer products clients across India, MENA, and North America. He holds a B.Tech from IIT Delhi.
He can be reached at mukesh@redseer.com
VIKRANT SHOME
Associate Consultant
Vikrant Shome is the associate consultant at RedSeer and has 2+ years of collective experience in brand management, entrepreneurship and consulting
engagements on market & consumer assessment across internet, education, saas, d2c and logistics clients. He holds an MBA from IIM Indore.
He can be reached at vikrant@redseer.com

31. Thank You
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