The document provides an analysis of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for various economies and sectors in February 2013. Some key points:
- Global and Eurozone manufacturing output growth eased in February, while the services sector expanded. The UK, Ireland and NI saw growth rates ease.
- The Eurozone, France, Italy, and Greece continued to contract, with France and Italy posting the steepest declines.
- The US remained the best performing major economy relative to China, the UK and Eurozone. US and Chinese manufacturing expanded faster than Europe.
- NI, UK and Ireland saw contraction ease, while NI had the steepest decline of the
1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
February 2013 Survey Update
Issued 11th March 2013
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3‐month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
3. Global output growth eases in February due largely to
manufacturing sector
Global Output - PMI
65
Source: Markit Economics
60
Expansion
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
30
Total Manufacturing Services
25
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
4. All sectors within the Eurozone are still contracting
Eurozone PMIs: Output
65
Source: Markit Economics Output Indices
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Composite (M&S) Manufacturing Services Construction
25
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
5. Greece, France & Italy post steepest falls in
manufacturing output. Denmark posts strongest gain
PMIs: Manufacturing Output February 2013
Denmark
N.Zealand*
US
Switzerland
India
Mexico
Brazil
Turkey
Russia
NI
South Africa
Global NI, RoI & UK
Canada
Ireland
China
Germany
Taiwan
Netherlands
Indonesia
Czech
S.Korea
UK
Vietnam
Poland
Austria
Singapore
EU
Japan
EZ
Spain
Australia
Israel** Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *
Italy January, **December
France
Greece
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
6. Services output expanding for BRICs, US, Germany, Japan,
UK & Ireland. France & Italy posting the steepest declines
PMIs: Services Output February 2013
US*
Russia
Germany
India
Ireland
Global
Emerging Markets
Brazil
China
UK
Japan
EU
Australia
EZ €
NI
Spain Source: Markit Economics Output Indices, *
France US Non-manufacturing which is wider than
Italy services
40 45 50 55 60
7. The 2nd, 3rd & 4th largest economies within the eurozone
are contracting at a rapid rate
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
65
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
30
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
8. US remains the best performer relative to China, UK & EZ
Composite PMIs
(Manufacturing & Services ** Excludes Construction**)
65
Eurozone US (ISM) China UK
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
Source: Markit Economics
35
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
9. … and US manufacturing is expanding at a faster rate
than China
Manufacturing PMIs
65
US (ISM) China Japan Eurozone
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics
25
Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
10. UK & RoI see their rates of growth ease in February whilst
the rate of contraction eases for Northern Ireland
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**
65
NI UK RoI
60
Expansion
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35 Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI: 50 = threshold
between expansion / contraction
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
11. PMI suggests further private sector composite index (combines DFP
indices for construction, services & industrial production) in Q1 2013 to be flat
NI Private Sector Output Index Versus NI PMI
PSO Q/Q% PMI
UB PSO Left Hand Scale UB PMI Right Hand Scale
5 65
50 mark is the threshold for expansion / contraction with PMI
4
60
3
Expansion
2 55
1
50
0
45
-1
-2 40
-3
Contraction
35
-4
Source: Ulster Bank Private Sector Output (Index 2009 = 100) up to Q3 2012 & Markit Economics, * Jan&Feb average
-5 30
2004 Q1 2005 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2013 Q1*
12. NI output, new orders and employment all see their
pace of contraction ease over the last 3 months
NI Private Sector Activity
3 month moving average
70
Business Activity New Business Employment
65
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
13. Pace of contraction in NI new orders eases
Private Sector New Orders
3 month moving average
65
Orders increasing
NI UK RoI
60
55
50
45
Orders Contracting
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-03 Oct-04 Jun-06 Feb-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Feb-13
14. NI’s levels of work outstanding still falling at a rapid rate
but the pace of decline is easing
Private Sector Backlogs
3 month moving average
60
NI UK RoI
Increasing
55
50
45
Decreasing
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-03 Oct-04 Jun-06 Feb-08 Oct-09 Jun-11 Feb-13
15. Export orders post its best February reading in 6 years
NI New Export Business
Monthly
Growth Accelerating
65
New Export Orders No Change
60
55
50
45
Contraction Accelerating
40
35
30
25
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
20
Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-07 Feb-09 Feb-11 Feb-13
16. PMI underestimated job gains in Q2 & Q3 (relative to official jobs
survey) further job losses signalled in Q4 2012 but flat in Jan/Feb-13
PMI Index NI Employment: PMI v QES* Q/Q
60 1.0%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the
number of jobs in NI & includes the public sector 0.8%
55 Job 0.5%
gains
0.3%
Discontinuity in QES Series
50 0.0%
-0.3%
45 -0.5%
Job
losses
-0.8%
40 Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI -1.0%
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except February 2013
-1.3%
which is based on average of January & February
35 -1.5%
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
17. The UK, RoI and NI all see a fall in their employment
indices with NI posting a marginal decline in staffing levels
Private Sector Employment Levels
Monthly
60
NI UK RoI
Job Gains
55
50
Job Losses
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
18. Input cost inflation eases in February (but up over last 3
months) with output prices and charges still falling
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
80
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
Profits
70 squeeze
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
Price of goods &
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI services falling
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
20. 3 UK regions post a contraction in February with NI
posting the steepest decline followed by the North East…
Output / Business Activity
February 2013
PMI index
Expansion
55 50 = No change
51.9
50.8
50
Contraction
48.4
45
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
35
Wal Scot NW East SE EM Y&H Lon UK WM SW NE NI RoI
21. NI posts sharpest rate of decline over the last 3 months…
Output / Business Activity
3 months to February 2013
PMI Index 50 = No change
56
Expansion
54 52.9
52
50.7
50
Contraction
48
47.2
46
44
42
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
40
Wal Y&H Scot East Lon SE EM WM UK NW SW NE NI RoI
22. ……and over the last 12 months
Output / Business Activity
PMI index 12 months to February 2013
50 = No change
55
Expansion
51.4 51.6
50
Contraction
45
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
40
Lon WM Y&H EM Wal Scot SE UK East NW SW NE NI RoI
23. Two English regions & NI report falling employment
levels in February …
Employment Levels
February 2013
PMI Index
54 50 = No change
Increasing
52.1
52
50.9
50
Decreasing
49.0
48
46
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
SE East WM Lon EM Wal UK Scot NW NE SW NI Y&H RoI
24. …and 4 UK regions (incl. NI) post declines over last 3
months…
Employment Levels
PMI Index Last 3 months to February 2013
54
50 = No change
Increasing
52.5
52
50.6
50
Decreasing
49.3
48
46
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
SE EM East WM Y&H Wal Scot UK Lon NE NW SW NI RoI
25. NI posts the steepest decline in employment over the
last 12 months
Employment Levels
12 months to February 2013
PMI Index 50 = No change
54
Increasing
52 51.2
50.5
50
Decreasing
48
47.6
46
44
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
42
EM WM SE East Scot Y&H UK SW Wal Lon NW NE NI RoI
27. UK service sector growth accelerates in February, but
manufacturing and construction post contractions
UK Business Activity / Output - PMIs
70
Services Manufacturing Construction
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
28. UK composite PMI suggests Q1 2013 GDP growth will
be marginal at best
UK GDP versus UK Composite PMI
PMI Index GDP Q/Q
65 1.5
60 1
55 0.5
50 0
45 -0.5
40 -1
35 -1.5
30 -2
Source: ONS & Markit Economics, * refers to January & February
25 -2.5
2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1*
GDP Q/Q PMI PMI No Change
29. Services & manufacturing remain above 50 in the RoI
RoI Business Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing Services Construction No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
30
25
Source: Markit Economics
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
30. All sectors in NI contracting (3 month average)….
NI Private Sector Output
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing Services Construction
60
Expansion
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
31. … with services and construction sectors still reporting
falling employment levels
NI PMI - Employment Index
3 month moving average
65
Manufacturing Services Construction
Job Gains
60
55
50
45
Job Losses
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
32. Manufacturing posts employment and new orders
growth over the last three months
NI Manufacturing Activity
3 month moving average
65
Growth accelerating
Business activity New Orders Employment
60
55
50
Contraction accelerating
45
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
33. UK manufacturing output growth eases in the 3
months to February
Manufacturing Output
3 month moving average
65
UK NI RoI No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
34. NI posts the strongest growth in new orders
Manufacturing New Orders
3 month moving average
65
UK NI RoI No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
35. N.Ireland manufacturing catching-up with economies
elsewhere
Manufacturing Output - PMI
3 month moving average
70
Source: Markit Economics PMIs
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
China Germany US NI UK
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
36. Ireland is still outperforming its Eurozone partners & NI
Manufacturing Output - PMI
70
RoI Italy Spain Greece NI
Expansion
60
50
40
Contraction
30
Source: Markit Economics PMIs, NI is 3 month moving average
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
37. Cost price inflation easing for local manufacturing firms
and output prices are rising (return of pricing power)
NI Manufacturing Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
No Change Input Costs Output Prices
80
Profits
squeeze
70
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
38. PMI signals no major job losses in Q4 & growth in Q1 (Feb-
13) but FG Wilson announcement still to take effect
PMI Index
NI Manufacturing Employment: PMI v QES* Q/Q
65 4%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment
Survey of the number of jobs in NI firms 3%
60 Discontinuity in
QES Series Job
gains 2%
55
1%
50 0%
45 -1%
Job
losses -2%
40
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit PMI Index 50 -3%
denotes threshold between expansion /
35 contraction,PMI 3mth averages except Jan-13 -4%
(monthly)
30 -5%
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
39. RoI & UK growth continues while NI still posts declines
in output
Services Output (excluding Retail)
3 month moving average
70
UK NI RoI No Change
65
Expansion
60
55
50
Contraction
45
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
40. New orders growth slowing in the RoI and remains
subdued in the UK. Meanwhile NI still contracting
Services New Orders (excluding Retail )
3 month moving average
70
UK NI RoI No Change
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
41. …with employment levels still falling in NI over the
last three months (but growth returned in January)
Services Employment
3 month moving average
65
UK RoI NI No Change
Expansion
60
55
50
45
Contraction
40
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
30
Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
42. The PMI signals modest employment declines for the
service sector in Q4. But PMI includes private sector only
PMI Index
NI Services Employment: PMI v QES* Q/Q
65 1.5%
*QES is DFP's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the number
of jobs in NI and includes the public sector
60 1.0%
Discontinuity in QES Series
55 Job
0.5%
gains
50 0.0%
45 Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit Economics, PMI -0.5%
Index 50.0 denotes threshold between expansion /
contraction,PMI 3mth averages except February 2013
which is based on average of January & February Job losses
40 -1.0%
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
43. Local retailers still reporting falling orders & activity
but pace of decline has eased
Northern Ireland Retail PMI
3 monthly average
75
Business Activity New Orders Backlogs No Change
Expansion
65
55
Contraction
45
35
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
25
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
44. Profits squeeze on local retailers remains
NI Retail Input & Output Inflation
3 month moving average
90
Input Costs Output Prices No Change
Profits
80
squeeze
Inflation
70
60
50
Deflation
40
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
30
Feb-04 Aug-05 Feb-07 Aug-08 Feb-10 Aug-11 Feb-13
45. NI construction sector still in the midst of a severe downturn
NI Construction PMI
3 month moving average
Output New Orders Employment
Expansion
60
50 = No change
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics, Ulster Bank PMI
20
Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13
46. …with profits squeeze continuing
NI Construction Sector Profits Squeeze
3 month moving average
PMI Index
Input Prices Output Prices No Change
70
Inflation
60
50
Deflation
40
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank PMI
20
Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13
47. NI PMI has been a reasonably good predictor of actual
job losses in the official employment surveys (QES)
PMI Index
NI Construction Employment: PMI v QES Q/Q
65 5.0%
*QES is NI's official Quarterly Employment Survey of the no. of jobs in NI firms
60
Job 2.5%
55 gains
Discontinuity in QES Series
50 0.0%
45
-2.5%
40
35 -5.0%
30
Source: DFP, Ulster Bank & Markit PMI Index 50 -7.5%
Job losses
denotes threshold between expansion / contraction,PMI
25 3mth averages except Feb-13 (average of Jan & Feb)
20 -10.0%
Mar-04 Sep-05 Mar-07 Sep-08 Mar-10 Sep-11 Feb-13
PMI Employment Index No Change QES Q/Q
48. UK, RoI & NI all post contractions in construction output
Construction Sector Output - PMI
3 month moving average
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13
49. … and with new orders falling in NI, UK & RoI
Construction Sector New Orders - PMI
3 month moving average
PMI Index
NI UK RoI
Expansion
60
50
Contraction
40
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13
50. Growth opportunities for NI firms within GB will wane
as activity eases
UK Construction Activity - PMIs
3 month moving average
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Civil Engineering Activity
Expansion
60
50
40
Contraction
30
Source: Markit Economics
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
51. Lack of opportunities in the RoI with all construction
sub-sectors declining in February
Republic of Ireland Construction Activity - PMI
3 month moving average
70
Housing Activity Commercial Activity Engineering Activity
Expansion
60
50 = No change
50
40
Contraction
30
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank
20
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13
52. Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
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The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
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This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
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information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
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Slide 52