A comprehensive slide pack on New Car Sales / Registrations in Northern Ireland, with comparisons with the EU, UK and Republic of Ireland

1. New Car Sales / Registrations
An Analysis of Trends within the EU, UK,
Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland
Issued 5th February 2013
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Slide 1

2. Contents
Slide Numbers
1. Northern Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 3‐19
2. UK Regions & Republic of Ireland New Car Sales 20‐24
3. UK New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 25‐36
4. EU New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 37‐48
5. Republic of Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 49‐60
Slide 2

3. Northern Ireland
New Car Sales & Brand
Analysis
Slide 3

4. Northern Ireland new car sales have ‘double-dipped’
but appear to have stabilised almost 1/3rd below peak
21,200 fewer new car sales relative to 2007 peak
12 Month Rolling Sum
80,000
Sales now
31% below
68,708 peak
70,000
60,000 57,170
50,000
47,580 Temporary reduction
in VAT rate to 15% & 47,041
'Cash for Clunkers'
40,000
Source: SMMT
30,000
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Slide 4

5. Summary Table: NI New Car Registrations by Brand
Northern Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25)
Rank by Market Car Sales 2012 Market Rank by Market Market Share % Point % Change in Car
Manufacturer
Share 2012 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012
1 Ford 6,005 12.6 2 (+1) +0.6 ‐27.6
2 Vauxhall 5,634 11.9 1 (‐1) ‐1.0 ‐36.1
3 Volkswagen 4,367 9.2 4 (+1) +1.5 ‐17.6
4 Nissan 3,014 6.3 10 (+6) +2.5 +15.1
5 Peugeot 2,846 6.0 6 (+1) ‐0.4 ‐35.5
6 Hyundai 2,768 5.8 13 (+7) +3.3 +57.8
7 BMW 2,357 5.0 7 (‐) 0.0 ‐31.0
8 Citroen 2,001 4.2 8 (‐) ‐0.1 ‐32.4
9 Toyota 1,963 4.1 5 (‐4) ‐2.6 ‐57.8
10 Audi 1,941 4.1 11 (+1) +1.2 ‐1.1
11 Kia 1,871 3.9 21 (+10) +3.1 +215.0
12 Renault 1,762 3.7 3 (‐9) ‐5.0 ‐70.5
13 Mercedes‐Benz 1,330 2.8 15 (+2) +0.4 ‐19.4
14 Seat 1,319 2.8 14 (‐) +0.4 ‐20.2
15 Skoda 1,239 2.6 18 (+3) +1.0 +13.0
16 Honda 1,020 2.2 9 (‐7) ‐1.7 ‐61.3
17 Suzuki 948 2.0 12 (‐5) ‐0.7 ‐49.4
18 Mini 898 1.9 17 (‐1) +0.3 ‐19.3
19 Mazda 803 1.7 16 (‐3) ‐0.6 ‐49.2
20 Land Rover 729 1.5 19 (‐1) +0.1 ‐25.5
21 Fiat 596 1.3 20 (‐1) +0.1 ‐23.4
22 Volvo 546 1.2 22 (‐) +0.3 ‐7.9
23 Chevrolet 531 1.1 23 (‐) +0.5 +31.4
24 Jaguar 214 0.5 25 (+1) ‐0.1 ‐41.0
25 Alfa Romeo 133 0.3 30 (+5) 0.0 ‐31.8
Source: SMMT, Total NI New Car Registrations fell by 31% between 2007‐2012.
Slide 5

6. Brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012
Cool? Seriously Cool? Sub‐Zero?
Value for Money?
Slide 6

7. Brands experiencing falling NI market share 2007-2012
Uncool? Seriously Uncool?
Slide 7

8. 5 brands increased sales collectively by 46% (+2,957)
with Kia & Hyundai accounting for >75% of increase
Increase in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
1,750
Source: SMMT
1,500
1,277
1,250
1,014
1,000
750
500 396
250 143 127
0
Kia Hyundai Nissan Skoda Chevrolet
Slide 8

9. Kia car sales more than treble, Hyundai up 58% &
Skoda up 13%. All post new record sales in 2012
Growth in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Source: SMMT
Skoda
Nissan
Chevrolet
Hyundai
Kia
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
Slide 9

10. But winners were outnumbered by losers and big
losers, with some brands disappearing altogether
% Fall in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Saab
Proton
Ssangyong
Mitsubishi
Aston
Chrysler
Subaru
Renault
Jeep
Honda
Toyota
Porsche
Lamborghi
Suzuki
Mazda
Lexus
Bentley
Jaguar
Vauxhall
Maserati
Peugeot
Ferrari
Citroen
Alfa Romeo
BMW
All Brands
Ford
Land Rover
Fiat
Seat Some brands present in 2007 disappeared altogether by
Mercedes
Mini 2012. These included: Corvette, Daihatsu, Dodge, Lotus,
Volkswage Source: SMMT Microcar, Morgan, Rolls Royce, Rover & Rover MG
Smart
Volvo
Audi
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Slide 10

11. N. Ireland premium brand new car sales have taken a hit
2007 (house price peak)
45 29 18 4 2 14 238 2
7 16 12 2 0 9 111 0
2012
Slide 11

12. But fall in new car sales revealing a ‘squeezed middle’
Decrease in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
Numbers Biggest fallers in numerical terms (2007-2012)
0
-1,000
-1,567 -1,617
-2,000
-2,290
-2,685
-3,000
-3,187
-4,000
-4,207
Source: SMMT
-5,000
Peugeot Honda Ford Toyota Vauxhall Renault
Slide 12

13. French & Japanese brands post steeper than average
% declines with Renault losing its Va..Va..Voom!
% Decrease in NI new car sales by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Peugeot Source: SMMT
Vauxhall All Brands 31%
Mazda
Toyota
Honda
Renault
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Slide 13

14. Manufacturing brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012
NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
SMART
ABARTH Source: SMMT
LAND ROVER
FIAT
MINI
VOLVO
SEAT
MERCEDES
CHEVROLET
FORD
SKODA
AUDI
VOLKSWAGEN
NISSAN
KIA
HYUNDAI
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Percentage Point Change
Slide 14

15. Manufacturing brands losing NI market share 2007-2012
NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
RENAULT
TOYOTA
HONDA
MITSUBISHI
VAUXHALL
SUZUKI
MAZDA
SAAB
PEUGEOT
SSANGYONG
CHRYSLER
DAIHATSU
JEEP
DODGE
SUBARU
PORSCHE
CITROEN
LEXUS
JAGUAR
PROTON
ASTON MARTIN
BMW
ROVER MG
BENTLEY Source: SMMT
ROVER
-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 15

16. A greater number of brands have witnessed an increase
in annual sales in 2012, albeit many from a low base
Growth in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
All Brands 2011-2012
Peugeot
Volkswagen Source: SMMT
Mercedes
BMW
Jeep
Bentley
Vauxhall
Subaru
Lexus
Ford
Skoda
Jaguar
Kia
Hyundai
Suzuki
Porsche
Land Rover
Chevrolet
Ferrari
Fiat
Chrysler
Maserati
Abarth
SSANGYONG
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700%
Slide 16

17. Meanwhile Japanese brands and Renault new car
sales are still stuck in reverse
% Fall in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2011-2012
Morgan
MG
Daihatsu
Saab
Proton
Mitsubishi
Other UK
Renault
Aston Martin
Alfa Romeo
Nissan
Smart
Mini
Mazda
Honda
Volvo
Toyota
Seat
Audi Source: SMMT
Citroen
-100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Slide 17

18. Manufacturers gaining NI market share over last year
NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
SSANGYONG
CHRYSLER Source: SMMT
ABARTH
PEUGEOT
JAGUAR
MERCEDES
VOLKSWAGEN
BMW
SKODA
CHEVROLET
LAND ROVER
SUZUKI
FIAT
KIA
VAUXHALL
HYUNDAI
FORD
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Percentage Point Change
Slide 18

19. Renault & Japanese brands continue to lose market
share in 2012
NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
RENAULT
NISSAN
MITSUBISHI
TOYOTA
MINI
MAZDA
HONDA
SAAB
SEAT
AUDI
VOLVO
CITROEN
Source: SMMT
ALFA ROMEO
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 19

20. UK Regions & Republic of
Ireland New Car Sales
Slide 20

21. Car scrappage schemes provided a temporary stimulus
that soon wore off
New Car Registrations Annual % Change
Y/Y
NI UK RoI
200%
150% RoI car scrappage scheme
starts 10 December 2009 &
UK car scrappage scheme
ends 30 June 2011
started18 May 2009 & ends
100% 31 March 2010
50%
0%
-50%
Source: SMMT & SIMI
-100%
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Slide 21

22. UK, NI & RoI post positive year-on-year growth in Q4 2012
UK, NI & RoI New Car Sales Growth
Y/Y 3 months / Year
125%
NI UK RoI
100%
NI car boom
75% coincides with
house price boom
50%
25%
0%
-25%
-50%
Source: SMMT & SIMI
-75%
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Slide 22

23. The RoI has experienced the largest fall & recovery in new
car sales but remains the furthest adrift from to 2007 levels
New Car Registrations 2012
Relative to 2007 Levels
60%
NI England Scotland Wales UK RoI
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
Source: SMMT & SIMI
-80%
Peak-to-Trough Decline Recovery From Trough Net Position
Slide 23

24. New car sales in Scotland were 10% below 2007 levels.
This compares with UK (-19%), NI (-31%) & the RoI (-58%).
New Car Registrations
Indexed 2007 =100
120
NI Scotland Wales UK RoI
100
-10%
-15%
-19%
80
-31%
60
-58%
40
20
Source: SMMT & SIMI
0
Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Slide 24

25. UK New Car Sales &
Brand Analysis
Slide 25

26. UK records its first annual rise in 5 years in 2012 but
still 20% (534,000) below 2003 peak
UK Annual New Car Registrations
2,750,000
2003
2,579,050
2,500,000
2007
2,404,007
2,250,000
Early 1990s recession
-20.7% 2012
2,044,609
2,000,000
2007-2011
-19.2% 2011
1,941,253
1,750,000
Source: SMMT
1,500,000
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Slide 26

27. Summary Table: UK New Car Registrations by Brand
UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25)
Rank by Car Sales 2012 Market Rank by Market Market Share % Point % Change in Car
Manufacturer
Market Share 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012
1 Ford 281,917 13.8 1 (‐) ‐3.2 ‐19.2
2 Vauxhall 232,255 11.4 2 (‐) ‐1.5 ‐29.9
3 Volkswagen 183,098 9.0 3 (‐) ‐1.5 ‐7.1
4 BMW 127,530 6.2 6 (+2) +1.3 +4.9
5 Audi 123,622 6.0 9 (+4) +0.2 +22.6
6 Nissan 105,835 5.2 12 (+6) +3.3 +59.3
7 Peugeot 99,486 4.9 4 (‐3) ‐0.7 ‐31.9
8 Mercedes‐Benz 91,855 4.5 11 (+3) ‐0.7 +11.6
9 Toyota 84,563 4.1 7 (‐2) ‐0.04 ‐28.6
10 Hyundai 74,285 3.6 21 (+11) +3.6 +149.6
11 Citroen 73,656 3.6 10 (‐1) ‐0.1 ‐24.6
12 Kia 66,629 3.3 22 (+10) +1.9 +126.8
13 Honda 54,208 2.7 8 (‐5) ‐1.3 ‐48.9
14 Skoda 53,602 2.6 17 (+3) +0.4 +34.3
15 MINI 51,324 2.5 15 (‐) +1.2 +7.7
16 Fiat 49,907 2.4 13 (‐3) +0.4 ‐16.0
17 Land Rover 48,626 2.4 16 (‐1) +0.4 +4.5
18 Renault 40,760 2.0 4 (‐14) ‐1.2 ‐67.9
19 SEAT 38,798 1.9 18 (‐1) +0.9 +11.5
20 Volvo 31,790 1.6 20 (‐) +0.2 +5.8
21 Mazda 26,183 1.3 14 (‐7) ‐0.7 ‐48.6
22 Suzuki 24,893 1.2 19 (‐3) ‐0.7 ‐24.2
23 Jaguar 14,109 0.7 25 (+2) +0.1 ‐24.7
24 Chevrolet 13,476 0.7 26 (+2) ‐0.4 ‐26.6
25 Lexus 8,404 0.4 27 (+2) ‐0.3 ‐44.4
Source: SMMT, Total UK New Car Registrations fell by 14.9% between 2007‐2012.
Slide 27

28. Some brands have disappeared altogether in UK…
Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
Alfa Romeo
2007-2012
Porsche Source: SMMT
Volkswagen
Total
Fiat Some brands present in 2007 disappeared altogether
Ford
Suzuki by 2012. These included: Cadillac, Corvette,
Citroen Daihatsu, Dodge, Hummer, Rover & Tata
Jaguar/Daimler
Chevrolet
Toyota
Vauxhall
Peugeot
Ssangyong
Bentley
Lexus
Perodua
Mazda
Honda
Aston Martin
Jeep
Chrysler
Other Imports
Mitsubishi
Subaru
Renault
Lotus
Proton
Saab
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Slide 28

29. Other brands have bucked the wider trend. Sales of
Korean brands (Hyundai & Kia) have more than doubled
Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Land Rover
Source: SMMT
BMW
Volvo
smart
MINI
Other British
SEAT
Mercedes-Benz
Audi
Skoda
Nissan
Kia
Hyundai
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%
Slide 29

30. Ford lost the most market share (3.2pp) between 2007-2012
UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
Ford
Volkswagen
Vauxhall
Honda
Renault
Saab
Suzuki
Peugeot
Mercedes-
Mazda
Chevrolet
Chrysler
Lexus
Subaru
Daihatsu
Dodge
Citroen
Mitsubishi
Alfa Romeo
Other Imports
Proton
Toyota
Jeep
Lotus
Perodua Source: SMMT
Hummer
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 30

31. Hyundai (+3.6pp), Nissan (+3.3pp) & Kia (+1.9pp) saw the
largest gains in market share during the last 5 years
UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
Maserati
Bentley Source: SMMT
Ssangyong
Infiniti
MG
Jaguar
smart
Audi
Volvo
Skoda
Land Rover
Porsche
Fiat
SEAT
MINI
BMW
Kia
Nissan
Hyundai
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 31

32. Korean manufacturer Ssangyong posts largest % increase
in sales over the last year, albeit from a very low level
Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
Lexus 2011-2012
Volkswagen
Jaguar Source: SMMT
MINI
Peugeot
Total
Ford
Honda
Jeep
SEAT
Citroen
Chevrolet
Audi
BMW
Nissan
smart
Mercedes
Toyota
Hyundai
Skoda
Fiat
Bentley
Suzuki
Kia
Porsche
Land Rover
Infiniti
MG
Chrysler
Ssangyong
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400%
Slide 32

33. Kia, Land Rover & Hyundai were the most successful
brands, in gaining market share, over the last year
UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
Infiniti
Bentley Source: SMMT
Chevrolet
smart
MG
Ssangyong
SEAT
Honda
Porsche
Citroen
Ford
Chrysler
Suzuki
Audi
Nissan
BMW
Mercedes-Benz
Fiat
Skoda
Toyota
Hyundai
Land Rover
Kia
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Percentage Point Change
Slide 33

34. Renault sees new car sales drop over 40% in a year…
% Fall in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2011-2012
Daihatsu
Saab
Lotus
Proton
Renault
Alfa Romeo
Mitsubishi
Perodua
Subaru
Maserati
Other British
Mazda
Aston Martin
Other Imports
Volvo
Source: SMMT
Vauxhall
-100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0%
Slide 34

35. with a 1.5pp fall in market share - the steepest decline
for all manufacturers
UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
Renault
Vauxhall
Mazda
Volkswagen
Alfa Romeo
Saab
Mitsubishi
Volvo
MINI
Subaru
Peugeot
Jaguar
Lexus
Proton
Other British
Lotus
Perodua Source: SMMT
Aston Martin
-1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 35

36. Nissan, Kia & Hyundai accounted for just 4% of UK new car
sales market in 2007. By 2012 this had grown to 11%
Top 15 brands in UK by market share in 2012
%
versus their share in 2007
20
2007 2012
18
Source: SMMT, *Premium Brands: Porsche,
16 Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, Audi & Jaguar
14
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Slide 36

37. EU New Car Sales &
Brand Analysis
Slide 37

38. Summary Table: EU New Car Registrations
EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25)
Rank by Market Car Sales 2012 Market Rank by Market Market Share % Point % Change in Car
Manufacturer
Share 2012 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012
1 Volkswagen 1,541,643 12.8 1 (‐) +2.6 ‐5.6
2 Ford 910,318 7.6 3 (+1) ‐0.5 ‐30.1
3 Opel (GM) 815,961 6.8 2 (‐1) ‐1.6 ‐39.3
4 Renault 795,972 6.6 4 (‐) ‐1.0 ‐34.2
5 Peugeot 774,435 6.4 5 (‐) ‐0.5 ‐30.4
6 Audi 673,647 5.6 11 (+5) +1.5 +1.8
7 Citroen 656,628 5.4 8 (+1) ‐0.5 ‐30.4
8 BMW 614,779 5.1 10 (+2) +0.7 ‐12.9
9 Mercedes 565,161 4.7 9 (‐) +0.1 ‐22.5
10 Fiat 570,980 4.7 6 (‐4) ‐1.4 ‐41.6
11 Toyota 483,131 4.0 7 (‐4) ‐1.9 ‐48.9
12 Nissan 417,636 3.5 14 (+2) +1.6 +33.9
13 Hyundai 414,827 3.4 16 (+3) +1.5 +35.3
14 Skoda 465,341 3.0 12 (‐2) +0.4 ‐3.9
15 Kia 327,995 2.7 19 (+4) +1.1 +29.4
16 Seat 251,528 2.4 13 (‐3) ‐0.3 ‐34.9
17 Dacia 234,349 1.9 22 (+5) +0.8 +35.1
18 Volvo 212,578 1.8 18 (‐) +0.1 ‐20.1
19 Chevrolet 167,917 1.4 21 (+2) 0.0 ‐23.3
20 Mini 152,762 1.3 23 (‐1) +0.4 +5.4
21 Suzuki 144,292 1.2 17 (‐4) ‐0.6 ‐49.7
22 Honda 133,462 1.1 15 (‐7) ‐0.8 ‐57.2
23 Mazda 114,208 0.9 20 (‐3) ‐0.6 ‐52.4
24 Land Rover 96,847 0.8 27 (+3) +0.2 ‐6.6
25 Alfa Romeo 86,858 0.7 24 (‐1) 0.0 ‐39.9
Source: ACEA, Total New Car Registrations fell by 21.3% between 2007‐2012 for EU15 and 20.4% for EU 15 +EFTA Countries.
Slide 38

39. Most EU countries have recorded decreases in new car
sales between 2007-2012 with Greece posting a fall of 79%
% Change in New Car Registrations
2007-2012
Slovakia
Switzerland
Austria
Denmark
Norway
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Germany
Poland
Belgium
France
Sweden
Finland
UK N.Ireland
Total EU15+EFTA -31%
EU15
Slovenia
Lithuania
Italy
Estonia
Iceland
Bulgaria
Portugal
Spain
Ireland
Latvia
Hungary Source: ACEA & SMMT
Romania
Greece
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Slide 39

40. Most EU countries posting an annual decrease in new car
sales in 2012 with the UK & Iceland notable exceptions
% Change in New Car Registrations
2011-2012
Greece
Portugal
Romania
Italy
Slovenia
Belgium
France
Spain RoI
Ireland
Netherlands -11.6%
EU15
Total EU27
Sweden
Finland
Poland
Lithuania
Austria
Germany
Latvia
Norway
Czech Republic
N.Ireland N.Ireland
Denmark
Luxembourg +0.6%
Estonia
Slovakia
Switzerland
Bulgaria UK
UK +5.3
Hungary Source: ACEA & SMMT
Iceland
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%
Slide 40

41. Greece, Ireland & Spain all experienced a prolonged boom in
new car sales. Now, new car sales are lower than 1990 levels
Index
New Passenger Car Registrations
Indexed 1990 = 100
300
Source: ACEA
250
200
150
100
50
France Greece Ireland Italy Spain No Change
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Slide 41

42. The UK is bucking the downward trend by some of
its EU counterparts
New Passenger Car Registrations
Indexed 1990 = 100
140
France Germany Italy UK EU15¹ No Change
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
Source: ACEA
50
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Slide 42

43. Only 6 manufacturers posted an increase in new car
sales between 2007 and 2012
Growth in EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Source: ACEA
Audi
Mini
Kia
Nissan
Dacia
Hyundai
0 10 20 30 40 50
% Growth
Slide 43

44. Japanese brands were the biggest losers within the EU.
Italian & French brands also posted significant falls
Growth in EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer
2007-2012
Honda
Mazda
Suzuki
Toyota
Fiat
Alfa
Opel (GM)
Seat
Renault
Citroen
Ford
Peugeot
Chevrolet
Mercedes
Volvo
BMW
Land Rover
Volkswage Source: ACEA
Skoda
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0
% Growth
Slide 44

45. German & South Korean brands have gained market
share since 2007. But so too have brands built in the UK
Change (PP) in Market Share in EU New Car Sales*
2007-2012
Toyota
Opel (GM)
Fiat
Renault
Honda
Mazda
Suzuki
Citroen Land Rover, Mini &
Ford Seat's dominance in
Spanish market, & Nissan are built in the
Peugeot
Seat severe downturn in UK so +ve for UK
Alfa Romeo Spain explains economy
Chevrolet brands declining
Mercedes market share
Volvo
Land Rover
Mini
Skoda
BMW
Dacia
Kia
Audi
Source: ACEA, *flags denote nationality of
Hyundai
Nissan manufacturer
Volkswagen
-3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3
Percentage Point Change
Slide 45

46. French & Italian brands losing significant market share in
2012 as their domestic economies battle recession
Change (PP) in Market Share in EU New Car Sales*
2011-2012
Renault
Opel / Vauxhall
Ford
Fiat
Peugeot
Citroen
Alfa Romeo French, Spanish (Seat
Mitsubishi German owned) & Italian
Seat
Suzuki brands suffering as their
Mazda domestic economies Jaguar, Land Rover,
Volvo battle with recession Mini & Nissan are built
Smart in the UK so +ve for
Lancia/Chrysler UK economy
GM (US)
Lexus
Jaguar
Honda
Mini
Jeep
Dacia
Nissan
Chevrolet
Toyota
Land Rover
Mercedes
Skoda
BMW Source: ACEA, *flags denote nationality of
VW
Kia manufacturer
Hyundai
Audi
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 +0.0 +0.5 +1.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 46

47. 7 brands post annual growth in new car registrations in
2012 with Land Rover posting the largest rise (+33%)
Annual Growth in EU27 New Car Sales by Manufacturer
2011-2012
GM (US)
MITSUBISHI
ALFA ROMEO
RENAULT
OPEL/VAUXHALL
FIAT
SEAT
SUZUKI
FORD
CITROEN
PEUGEOT
SMART
MAZDA
VOLVO
LANCIA/CHRYSLER
ALL BRANDS**
MINI
NISSAN
HONDA
DACIA
VOLKSWAGEN
LEXUS
TOYOTA
CHEVROLET
MERCEDES
BMW
SKODA
JAGUAR
AUDI
HYUNDAI Source: ACEA
KIA
JEEP
LAND ROVER
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 +0 +10 +20 +30 +40
Y/Y % Growth
Slide 47

48. The strength of the Japanese Yen hit exports with Kia &
Hyundai benefiting from a weak South Korean currency
Yen per $ Dollar / Yen Exchange Rate Yen per € Euro / Yen Exchange Rate
130 180
120
Yen weakening / $
160
strengthening
Yen weakening /
110
Euro strengthening
140
100
90
120
Yen strengthening /
80 Yen strengthening /
Euro weakening
$ weakening 100
70
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
60 80
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13
Yen per KRW South Korean Won / Yen Exchange Rate
16 Yen per £ Sterling / Yen Exchange Rate
280
14
240
Yen weakening / £
12 Yen weakening / strengthening
South Korean Won
strengthening 200
10
160
8 Yen strengthening /
Yen strengthening / £ weakening
South Korean Won
weakening 120
6
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
4 80
Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13
Slide 48

49. Republic of Ireland
New Car Sales &
Brand Analysis
Slide 49

50. New car sales in RoI in 2012 were just 1/3rd of Celtic Tiger
peak of 2000. This represents a decline of 151,000 cars
RoI Annual New Car Registrations
250,000
2000
230,795
2007
200,000 186,325
+260% / +167,000
150,000
100,000
2012
1993 79,498
50,000 64,161 2009
57,453
Source: SIMI, ACEA
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Slide 50

51. Almost 108,000 fewer new car sales in 2012 relative to 2007
RoI New Car Registrations
12 Month Rolling Sum
200,000
175,000 Car sales 58%
below peak &
38% above low
150,000
125,000
100,000
75,000
50,000
Source: SIMI
25,000
Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Slide 51

52. Summary Table: RoI New Car Registrations by Brand
Republic of Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 20)
Rank by Car Sales 2012 Market Rank by Market Market Share % Point % Change in Car
Manufacturer
Market Share 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012
1 Volkswagen 10,051 12.6 2 (+1) +1.2 ‐52.8
2 Toyota 9,956 12.5 1 (‐1) ‐2.5 ‐64.5
3 Ford 8,563 10.8 3 (‐) ‐0.6 ‐59.7
4 Nissan 6,023 7.6 5 (+1) +0.1 ‐56.8
5 Renault 5,255 6.6 9 (+4) +3.2 ‐18.5
6 Hyundai 5,206 6.5 8 (+2) +2.9 ‐23.7
7 GM (Opel) 5,102 6.4 4 (‐3) ‐2.3 ‐68.6
8 Skoda 5,078 6.4 10 (+2) +3.0 ‐19.1
9 Audi 3,647 4.6 11 (+2) +1.8 ‐30.9
10 BMW 3,329 4.2 7 (‐3) +0.5 ‐52.1
11 Kia 3,117 3.9 15 (+4) +1.9 ‐17.8
12 Peugeot 2,226 2.8 6 (‐6) ‐1.3 ‐70.7
13 Mercedes‐Benz 1,834 2.3 12 (‐1) ‐0.5 ‐65.2
14 Mazda 1,433 1.8 13 (‐1) ‐0.4 ‐65.7
15 Seat 1,360 1.7 17 (+2) ‐0.1 ‐59.3
16 Citroen 1,161 1.5 21 (+6) +0.3 ‐45.5
17 Volvo 1,154 1.5 18 (+1) ‐0.2 ‐61.7
18 Honda 1,102 1.4 14 (‐4) ‐0.8 ‐72.7
19 Fiat 664 0.8 19 (‐) ‐0.5 ‐73.5
20 Suzuki 630 0.8 16 (‐4) ‐1.2 ‐83.2
Source: SIMI, Total RoI New Car Registrations fell by 58% between 2007‐2012.
Slide 52

53. Some brands have disappeared altogether in RoI with no
manufacturers increasing sales between 2007-2012
% Decrease in RoI New Car Registrations
2007-2012
Saab
Chevrolet
Lexus
Suzuki
Porsche
Mitsubishi
Land Rover
Private Import
Alfa Romeo
Fiat
Hona
Peugeot
GM (Opel)
Mini
Subaru
Mazda
Mercedes
Toyota
Volvo
Chrysler
Ford
Seat
All Brands
Nissan
VW
BMW Source: SIMI, some brands present in
Citroen 2007 disappeared altogether. These
Jaguar
Perodua included: Cadillac, Dodge, Isuzu, MG,
Audi Smart & Tata
Hyundai
Skoda
Renault
Kia
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Slide 53

54. During the 5-year period 2007-2012, Toyota, Opel & Peugeot
have experienced the sharpest falls in RoI market share
RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
TOYOTA
OPEL
PEUGEOT
SUZUKI
CHEVROLET
HONDA
FORD
SAAB
MITSUBISHI
MERCEDES
LEXUS
FIAT
LAND ROVER
MAZDA
DAIHATSU
OTHERS
MINI
VOLVO
ALFA ROMEO
SEAT
DODGE
SUBARU
PORSCHE
ISUZU Source: SIMI
CHRYSLER JEEP
-3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 54

55. Skoda, Hyundai, Kia & Audi increase their share of RoI market
significantly despite falling sales. But, Renault is top performer…
RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2007-2012
Jaguar Source: SIMI
Nissan
Citroen
BMW
VW
Audi
Kia
Hyundai
Skoda
Renault
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
Percentage Point Change
Slide 55

56. 10 brands increase their sales in RoI in 2012 with Jaguar,
Hyundai, Kia & Land Rover recording the largest % gains
Annual % Change in RoI New Car Registrations
2011-2012
BMW
Suzuki
Mini
Audi
Skoda
Honda
Land Rover
Kia
Hyundai
Jaguar
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Slide 56

57. But French (Peugeot & Renault) and Italian (Fiat & Alfa
Romeo) brands are amongst the ‘big losers’ in 2012
Annual % Change in RoI New Car Registrations
2011-2012
Jeep
Saab
Chevrolet
Daihatsu
Perodua
Private Import
Mitsubishi
Renault
Lexus
Subaru
Alfa Romeo
Seat
Fiat
Mazda
GM(Opel)
Peugeot
Ford
Toyota
All Brands
VW
Nissan
Volvo
Citroen Source: SIMI
Mercedes-Benz
-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0%
Slide 57

58. … but Renault loses almost 3 percentage points in
RoI market share in just 1 year
RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
RENAULT
FORD
OPEL
OTHERS
CHEVROLET
TOYOTA
SEAT
PEUGEOT
MITSUBISHI
MAZDA
SAAB
LEXUS
FIAT
Source: SIMI
SUBARU
-3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0
Percentage Point Change
Slide 58

59. Hyundai (+2.2pp), Skoda (+1.2pp) & Kia (+1.0pp) post the
largest increases in RoI market share in a shrinking market
RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share
2011-2012
CITROEN
Source: SIMI
MINI
JAGUAR
SUZUKI
NISSAN
CHRYSLER JEEP
LAND ROVER
MERCEDES
VW
HONDA
BMW
AUDI
KIA
SKODA
HYUNDAI
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
Percentage Point Change
Slide 59

60. Hyundai, Skoda & Kia accounted for 9% of new car sales in
2007 & 14% in 2012. Premium brands up from 10.5% to 11.7%
Top 12 brands in RoI market in 2012
versus their share in 2007
16%
2007 2012 Source: SIMI, *Premium
14% Brands: Porsche, Mercedes,
Lexus, BMW, Audi & Jaguar
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
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Slide 60

61. Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or
engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and
are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
construed as such.
This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained here
without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the
information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular
transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur
substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Slide 61