Greek crisis - ad-hoc monitoring

Eurogroup over, inconclusive | Finland to clarify its position | PM Renzi expected to intervene
tomorrow in favour of an agreement (12 July 2015)
-- The Eurogroup is over, several media report. No conclusion was reached. Discussions to continue
tomorrow. Finland to clarify its position until then, Greek media report among others.
@alexstubb: End of #Eurogroup session. To be continued tomorrow.
@JosephMuscat_JM: Briefed about inconclusive #Eurogroup meeting. It will be a long day -JM
@straneuropa: Eurogroup to restart tomorrow at 11 am
Eurogruppo ricomincia domani alle 11
#greece @la_stampa
(To allow time to the Finns, guess)
@Maria_Tejero: Second person that tells me that we may have two #Eurogroup this week: The
expected one on Monday an another one later in the week #Greece
-- Retrospectively and in view of future talks, several media write that, since the ESM Treaty says
that 85% of capital holders decide, a third bailout for Greece can go ahead without Finland. But this
might have big consequences for the newly elected Finnish government, which could collapse,
EurActiv reports among others.
@JarnoHa: This is the ESM treaty paragraph #Eurogroup might be looking at the moment. #Greece
http://t.co/8vtnQbQ9Sp
@ALeipold: I doubt it'll be invoked, but here's how the ESM's "emergency procedure" works.
http://t.co/iVphVXannf http://t.co/CpMYjViRtw
-- Eurozone finance ministers were told on Saturday that some 25 billion of any bailout loan to
Greece would be needed to recapitalise banks that are on the verge of collapse, sources close to the
discussions said, as quoted by several media. SKAI TV quotes sources in Athens saying that a viral
Bild's blog article (claiming that "Greece may need more than 100 bn euros") "mixes up non-
congruent and unjustifiable elements".
-- The Telegraph reports that the White House intervened alongside Oli Rehn, who was asked to
convince FinMin Stubb to stop blocking an agreement.
@rapidis: #USA is pressing former Commissioner Oli Rehn to mediate & convince #Finland
FinMin Stubb over veto, at least till ##EUCO tomorrow.

-- The Guardian reports that PM Renzi is expected to tell his counterparts tomorrow that enough is
enough, it is time to put an end to humiliation for Greece and reach an agreement.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/11/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-creditors-meet-
to-decide-countrys-fate#block-55a17d6ee4b05111b7559b2c
-- SKAI TV reports that if the Eurogroup will issue a list of additional measures to be implemented
during next week, this could prompt rapid political developments for the appointment of a new
government in Athens, sources say.
This concludes tonight's monitoring. Thanks for following.
Ramona Gabar & Anastassios Papadopoulos
Sent from my mobile device
On 11 Jul 2015, at 23:04, GABAR Ramona <Ramona.GABAR@consilium.europa.eu> wrote:
-- Journalists in Brussels are also frantically trying to clarify whether there is an emergency clause
that would allow a vote in favour of ESM against Finnish opposition.
@isabelleory: Ce moment où la salle de presse se plonge dans le traité du MES pour examiner les
clauses d'urgence... #samedisoiràBruxelles #help
@bopanc: Apparently there's emergency clause that allows vote for ESM #Greece bailout to
overrule Finish(or any) veto if there is 85% majority
@bopanc: I mean they could theoretically vote against and the ESM bailout would still happen if
85% majority @yanpal7
@ElodieLamer: Je crois que la page web du Traité du MES vient de voir son taux de visite bondir
au-delà de tous ses espoirs #Grèce #ESM #Eurogroup
@blanpinox: @isabelleory BCE et commission doivent décider si y a urgence pour la zone euro ...
mais finlande peut pas bloquer avec son tout petit poids
-- Minister Schäuble's "Grexit plan" has made its way online.
Several journalists are now sharing it on Twitter. Further confirmations arrive that it was backed by
Chancellor Merkel.
@mathieuvonrohr: Here's the Schäuble Grexit plan everybody is talking about - via @sven_giegold
http://t.co/zYwTeyx4Q5
@NinaDSchick: Not really breaking anymore but @dpa confirms that #Schäuble's 5-year
temporary #Grexit plan was fully backed by Merkel & Gabriel.

@helenajaneczek: Some German MP from the Grüne claim Schäuble's #Grexit paper is
unconstitutional. e.g. @sven_giegold who forwarded it. @paulmasonnews
@DerekinBerlin: Finnish coalition rift over 3rd Greek package and German "timeout" proposal
leave euro group talks on knife-edge http://t.co/rBEpPbAhHl
@c_ducourtieux: #Grèce #Grexit: le "papier" Schauble a été soumis à l'EWG ce matin, mais pas sur
la table de l'Eurogroupe, diplo source
@astroisa13: Finnish media reports that Germany, Holland, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Slovakia
and Slovenia want "temporary" #Grexit
@SMuresan: Just to clarify: #Schaeuble poposed temporary exit from #Euro to give #Greece
chance to restructure debt, which is not allowed within Euro
The Eurogroup is working on a final statement, journalists have heard from sources. It will
reportedly announce that Greece will need to implement additional measures and that the
Eurogroup will reconvene for a final deal. This prompts journalists to warn that Greek banks will
not survive until next EG.
@giopank: Sources: #eurogroup working on a statement: #Greece to implement next week some
measures and than #Eurogroup will reconvene for final deal
@YanniKouts: Sources: #Eurogroup working on statement: #Greece to implemnt next week some
measures &than #Eurogroup will reconvene 4 final deal ~@giopank
@keeptalkingGR: #Greece's banks cannot wait foe another #eurogorup https://t.co/sDARkVHySz
@el_pais: Actualización http://t.co/JOi3M4RIKm El Eurogrupo pide a Grecia más concreción y
reformas inmediatas para firmar un tercer rescate
Journalists have all picked-up the information that Minister Stubb was mandated not to accept a
third bailout, or else Finnish government would fall.
@JarnoHa: It is confirmed: Finnish gov't won't accept a new bailout package to #Greece.
#Eurogroup
@isabelleory: Le ministre finlandais a comme mandat de refuser des négociations, nous expliquent
nos collègues finlandais. #eurogroupe
@TomMayerEuropa: größter stolperstein für griechenland scheint im moment finnische regierung,
rechtspopulisten "wahre finnen" lehnen 3.paket offb ab #stubb

@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup said here that finland's alex stubb's hands tied, soini will
bring down govt if finland agrees to any more gk funding
@jameskanter: #Eurogroup pressroom wags now asking whether Greek or Finnish government falls
first in any deal for Athens. @alexstubb @tsipras_eu
@GuillaumeTib: La Finlande encore plus ferme que l'Allemagne, @alexstubb risque la survie du
Gouvernement dont il est membre https://t.co/q9qwypqA2j
@JSLefebvre: Nouvelles de l'eurogroupe: gros souci du côté de la Finlande. Le gouv. ne survivrait
pas à un 3e plan grec. Du coup, ça coince #Grèce
@Elbarbie: Fins creating problems in #Eurogroup. Talking about "mandate issues " that they are
facing with their government coalition partners
@vpkivimaki: Report: Finnish government nearly collapsed over decision on 3rd Greece bailout
package. Said to land on hard line. http://t.co/pqUptyBqYx
@Lencyclopedie: Accepting #Greek bailout would probably break the Finnish gov. (Center &
Cons.& True Finns), hence they resist it. https://t.co/Pg3zAD03GE
@giopank: sources: #greece agreed to the statement, but some ministers have problems to accept it
(Finalnd) and so they will pass it to the leaders
@Edward_hugh: @LorcanRK @TheStalwart Yeah, but meanwhile the banks remain closed. That's
the strength of the Finnish position.
SKAI TV presents the configurarion of positions within Eurogroup on Greece's request as follows:
YES: Commission, FR, IT, CY
NO (or subject to severe conditions): DE, SI, SK, EE, LT, NL, FI
Another main narrative on Twitter is that Minister Schäuble reportedly consulted Chancellor
Merkel and Vice-Chancellor Gabriel on the proposal of a temporary Grexit and they agreed to
present it.
@Promovator: schäubles plan, #griechenland "temporär" aus € zu werfen, nicht nur mit merkel
abgesprochen, sondern auch gabriel https://t.co/Q7UrKD6oY8
@eriksnewton: FAZ newspaper reporting: Merkel and SPD leader both agreed to Schaueble's
alleged plan for a 5 year "timeout" of #Greece from the Euro.
@YanniKouts: German govt sources: Idea of a temporary Grexit was agreed on by Merkel &vice-
chancellor Gabriel https://t.co/9RfU6hPtBk via @StefanLeifert
@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup schaeuble's grexit paper. zdf german tv says it was squared
with merkel and gabriel
http://t.co/B5D5EJDLI2

Reportedly the Eurogroup is now drafting a set of additional measures they think Greece need to
implement as part of an agreement. Kathimerini reports that the Eurogroup requested further
specification of the proposed measures and for their immediate approval by the Parliament.
@Elbarbie: Hard reform package & immediate voting of prior actions is being asked to
#Greeks.#Eurogroup discussion still goes on http://t.co/pf958gvBNT
@LondonerVince: Spanish press corps in Brussels report Eurogroup drafting list of extra measures
they want #Greece to implement as part of new programme.
Journalists have heard from sources that any final decision is unlikely to be taken tonight.
@traynorbrussels: #greece #eurogroup session in pause. nowhere near agreement. unlikely tonight.
could be passed to sunday summit - sources
@bopanc: #Eurogroup sources say meeting should be over by 10pm Brussels time (famous last
words) Two more meetings expected next week.
@c_ducourtieux: #Eurogroupe #Grèce: "certains veulent ouvrir la négo 3e plan ttdesuite et d'autres
FiMin, qui veulnt d'abord des réformes sur rails"sourceEU
Meanwhile, more and more sources report that Finland decided to veto any third programme. The
Finnish national broadcaster YLE said that, according to unnamed source, the country's government
does not consider the Greek proposal on its debt sufficient to start negotiations with Greece, Reuters
reports on its live blog. Greek SKAI TV quotes sources within Eurogroup saying that Finland
resists a new bailout, "even if it would remain alone within the opposition camp".
@isabelleory: Selon la télé finlandaise, les Finlandais seraient prêts au veto contre programme
d'aide... #eurogroupe https://t.co/eMvNFbclma
@mariastenroos: Finland will block decision making on #Greece loan if needed. A definitive No.
#Yle #eurogroup
@mariastenroos: Source for Yle: Stubb's mandate from Finnish parliament is very narrow. In
practise means #Grexit. #eurogroup
@mariastenroos: As @J_Dijsselbloem said in the doorstep: We're not there yet. #eurogroup. A big
block of critical countries, including Fi, NL, Slovenia..
@KallergisK: Finland (too?) wants Greece out of the #eurozone - Source: MTV.fi
http://t.co/3zYkwR1AHU #Greece #GreekCrisis #eurogroup #rbnews #eurocrisis

@bopanc: Finish govt reportedly on verge of collapse as TrueFins threatened to leave coalition
rather than accept new #Greece bailout cc @alexstubb
-- After 5 hours of talks, the Eurogroup is divided and seems to have reached a dead end,
several journalists following the talks are reporting.
@isabelleory: Après 5 heures #Eurogroupe divisé. Quelques pays soutiennent la Grèce, dont la
France. Les autres expriment doutes et lassitude.
@mathieuvonrohr: Eurogroup seems divided https://t.co/pvND08lARz
@paulmasonnews: Upsum Eurogroup so far: Greece asked for more austerity; German Grexit plan
non-starter; @tsakalotos can’t sign without words on debt (1/2)
@paulmasonnews: (2/3) in other words the exact same situation as for 6 months. But Germans now
openly pushing for Grexit, IMF for debt relief, EU paralysed
@Simon_Nixon: Stand-off in eurogroup is between those willing to accept permanent fudge and
those who believe any third bailout of GR must be the last.
-- Süddeutsche Zeitung has seen the assessment by the Commission and the ECB saying that
Greece imperils the stability of the eurozone and therefore qualifies for ESM. They conclude
that - without ESM help - the financial risks would not be manageable, and the banks would
collapse. The paper calculated the financial gap for Greece for the next 3 years amounting to 74bn.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/pruefung-des-esm-antrags-kommission-und-ezb-
griechenland-ist-gefahr-fuer-gesamte-euro-zone-1.2561759
@YanniKouts: #ECB & #EU Commission conclude assessment on #Greece; point to systemic risk
in case of rejection of ESM request http://t.co/rnvDkDYdOq ~@SZ
-- As clarified by several media, Minister Schäuble's proposal was not voiced in the Eurogroup
itself, but a German position paper containing the proposal was handed over to eurozone
officials. "The issue of a Grexit has not been raised by anyone, including Schäuble, at the
Eurogroup meeting," a Greek government official told Reuters.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PL0NI20150711?irpc=932
@Efkouts: Greek gov officials say that nobody, not even #Schauble put on table any #Grexit
proposal at today's #Eurogroup.

@StefanLeifert: Schäuble´s idea of a "Temporary Grexit" not yet discussed at Eurogroup meeting.
But paper exists and circulates. #Greece
@dannyctkemp: German finmin internal paper raised idea of five-year 'temporary Grexit' , but
wasn't raised at Eurogroup, source tells AFP
@ekathimerini: Schaeuble has not raised 'Grexit' at Eurogroup: Greek official
http://t.co/1ClZ9LCFd7 http://t.co/DKby8wqIPP
The SPD quickly reacted saying that the proposal doesn't not represent the official position of
Germany. EU sources also reacted quickly saying that suspending Greece from the euro is
"legally unfeasible".
@schieritz: SPD leader suggests Schäuble's paper not German position https://t.co/EMMJPibUAc
@schneidercar: @FAZ_Wirtschaft @schieritz @faznet Es wird eine Einigung im Euro geben.
Scheinbar muss das #BMF seine Rolle a d Seitenlinie kompensieren.
@mathieuvonrohr: I think the harsh reaction by leading SPD deputy @schneidercar to that "5 year
Grexit" report is pretty telling. http://t.co/cptYb1zdxF
@Schuldensuehner: EU Official: Suspending #Greece From Euro Is Legally Unfeasible. (BBG)
Many journalists have started reflecting on the danger this proposal could inflict upon the
eurozone, while others argue that it is keeping Greece in the eurozone at all costs is in fact the
big danger.
@nicolas_veron: Rebranding #Grexit as a "timeout" does not make it any less dangerous for the
Eurozone.
@Peston: Bemused that German fin min Schaeuble doesn't see that temporary Greek euro exit
would more surely destroy euro than permanent exit #Greece
@Peston: Bemused that German fin min Schaeuble doesn't see that temporary Greek euro exit
would more surely destroy euro than permanent exit #Greece
@MKarnitschnig: #Schäuble proposal to put #Greece in "timeout" would create a second
#eurozone tier. Call it purgatory.
@OwenJones84: If rumours of Germany wanting Greece out the euro followed by humanitarian
aid, ie third world status, then it is utterly grotesque
@Simon_Nixon: @Peston well he's been at heart of euro project for 50 yrs and clearly disagrees.
Maybe he thinks fudged Greek deal would destroy euro too?
-- Several Greek sources report that IMF advocated a "profound restructuring of the Greek debt", to
which several delegations opposed during the Eurogroup meeting. MEGA TV refers to a "request

for additional measures amounting to a total amount of 13.5 bn euros (instead of the originally
proposed 12 bn), including a timeplan for the elimination of VAT exemptions on islands and for the
implementation of all other measures as well as a commonly agreed programme of
privatizations."
-- Meanwhile in Greece, SKAI TV confirms earlier rumours from within PM Tsipras' office in
relation to :
a) Government reshuffle early next week (replacing Ministers Lafazanis and Stratoulis who
declared "present" during the vote yesterday)
b) Actions for reconfirming confidence of SYRIZA MPs in the government; it is recalled that
SYRIZA internal organisation rules set out that dissenting members should take the initiative and
resign from their elected position.
Other rumours say that a new government of "specialised mission" should be appointed early
next week with a view to speeding up the implementation of some urgent measures and to passing
them through the Parliament until next October. Parliamentary elections are not excluded at that
time.
Please note that social media are buzzing after the FAZ reported that Minister Schauble made a
proposal for a 5-year Grexit.
His ministry rejected the Greek proposal as insufficient in a one-sided position paper sent to the
other euro countries. The proposals are missing fundamental area of reforms that could bring a
return to growth and sustainable development, the paper reportedly says.
Two solutions were proposed by the German minister:
- Greece improved its proposal quickly and substantially with the full support of the parliament;
- Greece leaves the euro temporarily (for at least 5 years) and restructures its debt. It remains a
member of the EU and in the meantime receives growth-enhancing, humanitarian and technical
assistance.
http://m.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/eurokrise/griechenland/eurofinanzminister-treffen-schaeuble-
bringt-grexit-auf-zeit-ins-gespraech-13697851.html

On Twitter journalists ask whether this position puts Minister Schauble in contradiction with
Chancellor Merkel. Reports are that the Greek delegation has denied that any proposals of a
temporary Grexit have been voiced in the Eurogroup.
Sent from my iPhone using Mail+ for Enterprise
From: ramona.gabar@consilium.europa.eu
Sent: 11/07/15 16:32
Subject: Finance ministers prepared for tough talks, some sceptical about a positive result
Media seem to agree that the Greek proposal drew a lukewarm response from eurozone finance
ministers, as they gathered for talks in Brussels.
President Dijsselbloem, FinMin Kazimir, FinMin Gramegna and FinMin Schelling are quoted
saying that there is a lack of trust that the Greek government can deliver on these commitments,
some of them also voicing concerns that the proposed measures do not go far enough. FinMin
Padoan said that today can only mark the beginning of negotiations. FinMin Schäuble was also very
outspoken and is widely quoted by the media saying that negotiations will be very tough. "We will
definitely not be able to rely on promises," he said when arriving at the talks in Brussels.
Several ministers cautioned that the best possible outcome of this weekend's meetings would be a
go-ahead to Greece and the institutions to start negotiations on a full rescue package, which would
include extra measures from Greece and the details of new financing, the WSJ reports.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/greece-needs-74-billion-in-fresh-funding-1436604139
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c8938b1c877542e2b8f6d73547bee29a/latest-finance-ministers-arrive-
crunch-greek-talks
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/business/greece-debt-plan-at-next-crucial-stage-as-finance-
ministers-meet.html?partner=socialflow&smid=tw-nytimes
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-finance-ministers-
warn-tsipras-may-have-to-compromise-further-as-they-arrive-for-key-brussels-talks-10382509.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/jul/11/greek-debt-crisis-eurozone-creditors-meet-
to-decide-countrys-fate?CMP=twt_gu&CMP=twt_gu
The major lack of trust is also very prominent on Twitter, as journalists say that it will be a main
issue today.
@KazimirPeter: Debt Sustainability Analysis on #Greece is going to be a huge problem #eurozone
#ECB #IMF
@KazimirPeter: This is like 'time travel' - package would be enough for completion of 2nd
programme. Afraid this is not enough for 3rd package

@OpenEurope: Noonan: Referendum was political victory for Greek gov't, but was economically
and socially disastrous. #Greece
@BBCGavinHewitt: German Fin Min Schaeuble says Europe 'can't rely on promises' from Greece.
Anticipates 'extraordinarily difficult' negotiations.#Greece
@mathieuvonrohr: Schäuble, asked if €Z threatened as a whole: "Until now everyone said this isn't
the case. Commission has to explain their change of heart"
@d_daso: De Guindos: Everyone wants #Greece to remain in Eurozone, but we need to discuss
institutions' assessment of the Greek proposal
@ekathimerini: Austrian finance minister sees 60:40 chance of Greece deal
http://t.co/Y7XtP3VLYa http://t.co/ECdykbREVC
@TomMayerEuropa: die falken zu #greece sind die baltischen staaten, finnland, die slowakei.
schäuble dürfte sie am ende im tandem mit sapin #paris einfangen
@GeorgiGotev: Dombrovskis at #Eurogroup: We should discuss giving mandate to Commission in
liaison with ECB & IMF to start negotiations about ESM program
@mathieuvonrohr: It's becoming clear the main issue today are not the Greek proposals themselves
but lack of trust in the Greek government. #Eurogroup
@TomMayerEuropa: eurogruppe will von griech regierung garantien, dass maßnahmen umgesetzt
werden, alles schon mal dagewesen: finnland, slowakei besond. hart
A picture showing the financing needs of Greece, as calculated by the institutions, is being widely
shared on Twitter.
@rdk_bxl: Rpt: financial needs of #Greece accordg to official assessment by EU-Com+ECB. Some
of calculated revenues uncertain http://t.co/2uNKHoWMfC
Talking to eurozone sources, and also widely quoting the FAZ analysis of the institutions'
assessment (mentioned in my previous email), journalists say chances are the Eurogroup
discussion today will be long, complicated, with unpredictable outcome. Several areas will need
further consideration, as loopholes have been mentioned.
@EdConwaySky: EU source: Will be tough meeting. Much scepticism among member states.
Mistrust & lack of confidence in Greeks after so many wasted months

@traynorbrussels: #greece caveats in troika paper such that if eurogroup's gonna nail this, it will
have to be a long night, a very big negotiation
@Schuldensuehner: 50-50 chance of Greek bailout deal, sources say ahead of #Eurogroup. (dpa)
@CSpillmann: #Grèce la tempête n'est pas terminée et naufrage encore possible 50% de chances
que passe #Eurogroupe (source #UE ) https://t.co/VGQm7Ug1qZ
@CSpillmann: #Grèce: besoins financiers réévalués par créanciers à 82 milliards d'euros "to be on
the safe side" (source #UE )
@isabelleory: @CSpillmann mais alors pourquoi proposer 74 milliards ?
@JSLefebvre: @isabelleory @CSpillmann Pour ménager la tension artérielle de Schäuble ?
@ManosGiakoumis: #Eurogroup Working Group meeting underway ahead of Eurogroup due at
3pm (CET). #Greece 3rd aid package seen at €78-84 bln (via @amna_news)
@Schuldensuehner: Creditors Say Greek Plan Not Enough to Meet Budget Target, FAS reports.
@traynorbrussels: #greece 3-page troika paper backs tsipras plan, with ifs and
buts...http://t.co/flRjFRqGZR
Meanwhile, attention in the media seems to be shifting back to Germany, where public opinion
is reportedly very negative towards a new bailout. Political pressure puts Chancellor Merkel in a
difficult spot. The FT carries a piece saying that Ms Merkel faces a "lose-lose" choice on Greece.
"Merkel cannot risk political fragmentation at home by being seen as giving too much to
Athens, but the demands of shepherding Europe through a Grexit would also be steep,"
says Daniela Schwarzer, Berlin office director for the German Marshall Fund think-tank.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f0040a3a-26f5-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html?siteedition=intl
The WSJ writes that officials in Germany are mindful of a building political backlash here against
five years of bailouts for Athens, which local news media and economists increasingly characterize
as throwing good money after bad. Ms Merkel and her FinMin have left the door open to measures
such as extending maturities or reducing interest rates on past emergency loans to Greece that
would make the country's debt more sustainable. The key question, German officials say, isn't
whether Greece gets debt relief—but whether it takes enough other steps for debt relief to be a
concession worth making. Along similar lines, The Guardian writes: "Debt relief is unlikely to be
generous enough to make much of a difference. Greece will stay in the euro but the tax increases
and the wage cuts will not deliver the promised economic recovery. A third bailout package will be
no more successful than the past two. When the next episode in the crisis arrives, as it will, Greeks
will look back to the moment when their government had the choice between austerity and the euro
and wonder whether it made the right one."
http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-keeps-wiggle-room-on-greek-debt-1436559509

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/10/tsipras-greek-economy-sabre-
purpose?CMP=share_btn_tw
Merkel is faced with the most difficult decision of her chancellery, Der Spiegel writes. The chances
are slim that Greece can leave the crisis behind with the help of just one more aid package. Its
economy isn't strong enough and its government, which rejects the policies demanded by the
country's creditors, is standing in the way.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greece-tsipras-and-merkel-must-make-a-decision-a-
1043109.html
@uli_speck: Growing anger for having to transfer large sums while being blamed for Greece's
troubles may seriously undermine support for Euro in Germany
@uli_speck: A deal between Greece and the rest of the Eurozone depends on skillful anger
management. Merkel a master in that discipline.
-- As more details emerge regarding the tone of the assessment given by the institutions, several
media report that conditionality has been expressed. "Under certain conditions, they jointly see the
proposals as a basis for negotiating an ESM programme", Ekathimerini and Reuters quote.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/uk-eurozone-greece-institutions-basis-
idUKKCN0PL08120150711
The FAZ has seen the assessment and reports that the institutions are “cautiously positive”; they
want any new bailout programme to contain “structural benchmarks, milestones and quantitative
benchmarks” for the future. They add that the reforms are not enough to meet primary surplus
targets given the “significant deterioration in macroeconomic and financial conditions.”
http://m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/schuldenkrise-institutionen-griechische-vorschlaege-
grundlage-fuer-verhandlungen-13697403.html
The discussion in the Eurogroup is expected to be long, journalists tweet. Several aspects in the
proposal need substantial discussion.
@straneuropa: "Troika says Greek proposal is ok to start the process. But Eurogroup'll be long.
Substantial discussion" (early morning source) @la_stampa
@YanniKouts: Institutions to #Eurogroup: 'Structural benchmarks, milestones and quantitative
benchmarks' will be needed to seal deal w #Greece ~@faznet

@nickkounis: FAS reporting creditors want #Greece to do more
#Eurogroup https://t.co/WGjD4uWlAf
@minefornothing: CREDITORS SAY GREEK PLAN NOT ENOUGH TO MEET BUDGET
TARGET: FAS
-- As support for a new bailout (or an understanding that it is the best option) is reportedly gaining
ground in Greece (a poll quoted today by journalists is showing a level of support of 75%), the rest
of the eurozone seems to be profoundly split on the matter. A graph published by Handelsblatt
shows that a negative or at best cautious stance prevails.
@GeorgiGotev: 75% of Greeks say compromise with EU is needed while 21% urge Tsipras not to
back down and clash with creditors: new poll,@SarantisMich
-- Liberation published today a letter by 26 professors at the London School of Economics,
including Nobel winner Christopher Pissarides. The 26 lay down an action plan for regenerating
growth in Greece and avoiding the country's exit from the eurozone.
A credible perspective regarding debt reduction, as well as commitment to structural reforms and an
easing of austerity are key elements in their proposal.
http://www.liberation.fr/economie/2015/07/11/26-profs-de-la-london-school-of-economics-contre-
la-politique-d-austerite-menee-en-grece_1345979?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
-- CER analyses the legal aspects behind a potential Grexit and the risks of opening the treaties for
allowing such an event to happen.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/thomas-cromwell-or-executioners-axe-options-grexit
The Eurogroup received the assessment of the institutions of Greece's proposal. Spokesman Michel
Reijns tweeted some minutes ago, without further comments:
@MichelReijns: Assessment of institutions under Article 13 of the ESM Treaty and initial review
of the Greek proposals received bij #Eurogroup, meeting 3pm
Reuters has heard from a source close to the matter that the assessment was "positive", "making it
likely they will agree on Saturday to open talks on lending Athens tens of billions of additional
euros."

One eurozone source, who has been sceptical of the leftist government’s commitment to a new
reform program, said it was now “100 percent certain” the ministers would agree to launch
negotiations, Reuters adds. In the meantime, they will also consider short-term aid, as well as
debt rescheduling, "although the creditor governments insist they cannot legally write any off
entirely."
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/iduskcn0pk2kz20150711?irpc=932
Some journalists commenting on yesterday's vote in Greece say that the government narrowly
avoided losing parliamentary majority.
@YanniKouts: #Greece | Conclusion:
-Bailout bill passes with s wide majority of 250 of 300 votes
-Gov't narrowly escapes collapse of coalition majority
-- The draft bill was approved by a majority in the Committees earlier today (only the Communist
party and Golden Dawn voted against).
The discussion in the Plenary of the Hellenic Parliament is not expected to start before midnight in
Athens, since internal rules do not allow for the vote to take place on the same day in the Plenary
and in the Committees. The final decision is due to be taken by the Conference of Presidents which
meets now. Journalists think that the prospects look positive and the bill should pass.
@YanniKouts: No info yet on when the crucial bailout vote will take place. Probably after
midnight. #Greece
@GeorgiGotev: Greek parliament 2 pass deal coz opposition forces will support it. But Tsipras to
resign if he gets less than 150 votes from his coalition
-- A poll conducted by the University of Macedonia for SKAI TV shows that 60% of voters are in
favour of Greece remaining in the eurozone, evenif this would imply a new bailout and
austerity measures, against 28% supporting the return to drachma. The poll also shows that 36.5%
(against 30.5%) believe that the recent referendum worsened negotiating perspectives.
-- In an op-ed in The Guardian, former minister Varoufakis argues that - since Syriza came to power
- Grexit has been the preferred outcome for many in the eurozone, especially for Germany.

"Schäuble is convinced that as things stand, he needs a Grexit to clear the air, one way or another.
Suddenly, a permanently unsustainable Greek public debt, without which the risk of Grexit would
fade, has acquired a new usefulness for Schäuble: he wants Greece to be pushed out of the single
currency to put the fear of God into the French and have them accept his model of a disciplinarian
eurozone."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/10/germany-greek-pain-debt-relief-
grexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
The Left Platform hard wing of Syriza decided to back PM Tsipras, The Telegraph, The Guardian
and the FT report among others.
Earlier concerns that the government might be at risk of losing its parliamentary majority now look
to have been cleared. The bill looks likely to pass through parliament easily, and the government
should keep majority.
Virtually all major media report that hundreds of people (some give impressive figures of several
thousands) took to the streets of Athens in a rally against austerity. However, The Guardian carries
a piece that argues that - despite disappointment - Greeks are resigned to the idea that the bailout
plan is the only solution.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/10/greeks-resigned-to-bailout-plan-despite-voting-
against-austerity?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
While all eyes are on the Eurogroup, Peter Spiegel makes a comparison between Greece's reform
list and the creditors' proposal, highlighting some areas that may be at risk. The proposal may not be
enough for some eurozone ministers, and trust is also eroded, he says.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d3970f0a-2709-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html#axzz3fVoL6GlI

In an op-ed in the FT, FinMin Kazimir writes that an amicable split with Greece is not the worst
fate for eurozone. There are a few red lines in the negotiations, he says, and debt reduction is one of
them. He warns of the danger of missing an opportunity reinvent the eurozone, to fix mistakes, to
grow stronger.
"Let us build up our institutions, pool our resources and respect our rules. And, most importantly,
let us do our homework. The Baltics, the Iberians, Ireland and Slovakia show that even small
countries on the eurozone’s geographical periphery can reform their economies and streamline their
budgets. Like us, the leaders of Greece must be bold and honest with their public as well."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1b7053f8-26f2-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c.html?siteedition=intl
Meanwhile, Greek journalists estimate how today's vote in the parliament may affect political
stability and the survival of the government.
@YanniKouts: #Greece gov't in risk of losing parl majority. They can afford up to 12 No votes. It
looks like No votes are now between 6 and 8.
@leonor_sierra: @YanniKouts Is it simple majority (151) they need? ND, Potami, Pasok=106, so
as long as they have 45 from Syr ok? or am I missing something?
@YanniKouts: @leonor_sierra The bill will pass. But if they don't get the minimum parl majority
votes from their own parties, gov't has to resign.
To Vima reports from the Syriza meeting, which was marked by tension. Yanis Varoufakis,
Panayotis Lafazanis and three members of the party's Political Bureau have reportedly submitted a
draft motion against the proposal of the Greek government. Other sources confirm that the
resignation of Lafazanis from his post of Energy Minister is imminent. The INYT reports that the
motion says an exit from the eurozone is preferable if creditors cannot offer the country a deal
without austerity. The INYT - alongside some Greek media - adds that it is unclear how many
Syriza MPs were planning to vote against the proposal submitted last night.
http://www.nytimes.com/live/greek-debt-crisis-live-updates/syriza-faction-expresses-opposition-to-
deal/?smid=tw-nytimesworld
@ekathimerini: Five SYRIZA MPs call on government to reject deal, choose Grexit #Greece

@FGoria: * Five hardline leftists in Greek ruling syriza say Greek Eurozone exit preferable to deal
with austerity and without debt relief - RTRS
@d_daso: #Syriza members and MPs who say "no" to the proposal -Leoutsakos, Ntavanelos,
Papadogianni, Lapavitsas, Petrakos-
@d_daso: Hardline leftists (MPs and members) in #Syriza say Grexit preferable to deal with
austerity http://t.co/fpAplWlWT9
In their interventions some of the SYRIZA members criticized the government for not having
prepared the country for a transition to a national currency and expressed their clear preference for
new parliamentary elections.
Closing the meeting of Syriza bodies, PM Tsipras said: "Between a bad and a catastrophic
choice, we suggest to accept the bad one", Kathimerini quotes.
To Vima reports on the main political parties' positions on the vote concerning the negotiations'
mandate to the government tonight:
New Democracy: YES
To Potami: YES
PASOK: YES
"Independent Greeks" are going to resume their meeting later today, since their leader, Panos
Kammenos, is meeting now with the PM in an attempt to clarify their reservation about the
elimination of the tax exemptions for the islands and the reduced ceiling of military expenditure.
There are still speculations that the Baltics will not bend and accept a new Greek bailout. “The feast
time at the expense of others is over for Greece,” President Grybauskaite said in an interview on
state television and radio. “Eurozone countries are really not going to pay for the irresponsible
behavior of the new Greek government. Without serious commitments, there will definitely be no
assistance.”
PM Straujuma told a German radio station that one thing her government could not accept would be
a write-down of Greek debt.
Meanwhile Germany refrained from making any judgements, with government spokesman Seibert
saying: “We will wait until the institutions examine them and express their opinion." In a similarly
cautious tone, Martin Jäger, a spokesman for Minister Schäuble, said that the outcome of the
Eurogroup remained "completely open".

The hashtag #ExplainNoToTspiras takes over Twitter, with many Greek people expressing anger
and disappointment with the unfolding of the events. Some call for PM Tsipras to resign. Others
call for street protests. The reverse reaction is also present, with many mainstream Greek journalist
calling on colleagues to end the game of humiliation and to be more supportive to PM Tsipras.
@YanniKouts: Tsipras is defeated. Humiliating him now would be wrong. The Greek people would
consider that their own humiliation and a betrayal by Europe
@northaura: Many greek tweeps criticizing #Greece's gov decision to go to an agreement with new
measures under the eloquent #ExplainNoToTsipras
@NikiKitsantonis: Hard criticism of Greek proposal under tag #ExplainNoToTsipras. 'No' voters
conflicted abt joining protest that wd be de facto antigov rally
@GreekAnalyst: Greek tweeterers embark on campaign to #explainNoToTsipras. Seems like his
(potential) turn towards pragmatism disappointed many. Good!
Rating agencies have release some worrying reports, with Moody's saying that Greek banks could
run out of deposits by Sunday, and Fitch saying that a Grexit is now the most probable outcome,
The Guardian and The Telegraph report.
FinMin Kazimir, who has voiced some of the most critical stances towards Greece in the past
weeks, seems to have waded in. His latest tweets are somewhat optimistic. This is seen by
journalists on Twitter as an important signal towards progress of negotiations.
@KazimirPeter: It seems we have progress on #Greece. It's still not clear whether this will be
enough and no further frontloading will be needed #Eurozone
@KazimirPeter: Following latest developments, listening to #Greece govt officials one can wonder
how quickly can caterpillar turn into butterfly #Eurozone
However, the mood has not improved everywhere in Europe. PM Straujuma, during a radio
intervention today, warned that the Greek proposal may not survive a vote in Latvia's parliament.
“It will be very hard for me to persuade the parliament. And for the parliament it will be difficult to
vote for it, because the average Pension in Latvia is considerably less than in Greece, and if you
were to ask the Latvians today whether they are willing to lend money to Greece, you can probably

guess what their answer would be.” She added that similar concerns are currently expressed in
Estonia and Lithuania.
Wolfgang Munchau writes that the Greek proposal sows division in Europe and that the eurozone's
moment of truth will come this weekend. He says that a deal is not at all secure and analyses
Germany's difficult position and great responsibility in the matter. The numbers will probably not
add up after the institutions' assessment, he says, so one side will have to back down there.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a60ca1fc-26e2-11e5-bd83-
71cb60e8f08c.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fcomment%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct
Hugo Dixon makes a similar prediction, describing the areas where the institutions may request
changes to the tabled proposal (primary surplus, labour reforms, among others). He says that, in
sum, Tsipras’ proposals are a good basis to renew talks. But they may be toughened up with more
short-term and medium-term measures to make them acceptable to creditors. Whether Tsipras is
then still prepared to do a deal is uncertain and time is running out.
http://hugo-dixon.com/2015/07/10/when-no-mean-yes-but-still-wont-be-enough/
Meanwhile in Athens, as the parliament prepares to convene and vote the proposal, there seems to
be solid cross-party support for it, although some MPs have declared they will not support the
proposal. PM Tsipras has warned his colleagues at the Syriza meeting today that rejecting the
proposal will have dramatic consequences for Greece.
Opposition party leader Stavros Theodorakis of centrist To Potami has predicted a "large majority"
of lawmakers will approve the government's proposals to creditors in a crucial vote later, The
Telegraph reports. He added a meeting with President Juncker today left him with the sense that the
international creditors feel the Greek proposals are "moving in the right direction."
@YanniKouts: Looks like ND, Potami & PASOK wll vote Yes for govt's bailout bill. Only the
Communists, the neo-Nazis & [any] Syriza dissidents wll vote No
@YanniKouts: Tsipras (at Syriza mtng): [A rift] wouldn't just mean Grexit, it would mean the
complete implosion of the country. #Greece
@NikiKitsantonis: Parl debate on Greek proposal at 7pm + anti-austerity rally 7.30. Even if Tsipras
can restrain party machine, 'no' voters to be out in force

-- Scepticism (or at least a certain level of cautiousness) is being voiced in Germany, the FT
reports among others. Two top MPs in the CDU/CSU bloc questioned today the credibility of the
Greek government and its proposals.
Ralph Brinkhaus, a CDU deputy chief whip, told German television on Friday that the plans now
put forward were exactly the same as what the Greek government had until recently condemned
and what the Greeks rejected in last Sunday’s referendum. “In this sense, it’s really a question
about their credibility.” Hans Peter Friedrich, a CSU deputy chief whip and known sceptic on
Greece, said in a radio interview: “There are two possibilities. Either the Greek government is
tricking its own people. Or it is tricking us.” Meanwhile, the SPD seems to be moderately optimistic
about the proposal.
More optimistic signals come from France, where President Hollande described the Greek
proposal as "serious and credible". The timing of his remark has been criticised by several
analysts, who point out that the institutions' assessment has to come first.
-- Meanwhile, in Greece, contradictory signals come from Syriza, where several MPs have
declared their opposition to the deal. Analysts predict an interesting debate in the parliament later
today (some report that the plenary session has been postpones for tomorrow).
The Greek Analyst @GreekAnalyst 38m38 minutes ago
.@kzoulas reports that the Plenary Session in the Parliament was postponed for tomorrow
(!) #Greece
View conversation9 retweets0 favorites
Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis 20m20 minutes ago
SYRIZA MP Vitsas: "We want clear reference to debt relief & a commitment from lenders to begin
discussing this from October" #Greece #euro
32 retweets8 favorites
Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis 2h2 hours ago
Some questions: Will MPs be able to vote tonight? Will SYRIZA rebels give up Parl't seats, as pledged?
#Greece #euro
Yannis Koutsomitis @YanniKouts 31m31 minutes ago
Varoufakis is said to reject reform proposal. Oh well...
Nick Malkoutzis @NickMalkoutzis 19m19 minutes ago
SYRIZA MP Vitsas "Atmosphere in parliamentary group is fine. We're all working for an
agreement" #Greece #euro
A Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP 49m49 minutes ago
Left Platform Lafazanis and ANEL boss Kammenos not happy. Greece may be heading for
national unity govt of some sort. Big role for Potami?

ND @nkaklamanis: "New Democracy has a clear stance, it will support Greece to remain
in Europe, even if it incurs a cost for the party."
View conversation9 retweets3 favorites
From: GABAR Ramona
Sent: Friday, July 10, 2015 10:27 AM
Subject: Greece update: Optimism regains in Athens, while journalists in Europe remain cautious | Legal
procedure for approval of new proposal by Greek parliament
-- In a rather unique process that has never been used in the past for similar purposes, the
government submitted a draft law containing just one article, by which the Parliament
mandates the PM, the Vice-President of the Government, the Finance Minister and the
Minister seconded to the PM to negotiate with their homologues the final conditions for the
bailout agreement. The negotiating team is also mandated to conclude the Convention
with the ESM for the financing of public debt for the period from 1 July 2015 to 30 June
2018 and for the negotiation of measures to be taken for the sustainability of the long-term
debt.
The draft law is expected to be approved today in the Parliament. Journalists consider that
in the event of some dissidents within SYRIZA, their number will not be over ten. Defence
Minister Kammenos and Minister of Energy Lafazanis did not put their signature on the
draft Law; it is though premature to draw negative conclusions as regards the position of
the "Independent Greeks" party, since Kammenos was the first to support publicly the
proposals at the end of the Government Council.
-- In the explanatory memorandum, the Government believes that the envisaged
agreement differs from the second bailout program, since it is extended to a medium-term
perspective (2015-2018) and refinances the public debt beyond 2015. It will allow a partial
restructuring of the public debt for the three next years (total needs amount to 53,5 bn
euros), since it is refinanced by the ESM and thus its disbursement is postponed in time.
Moreover, the "debt becomes a European one" and will be regulated by the EU Treaties.
Other important arguments referred to in the explanatory memorandum, as highlighted by
Greek media, are:
a) The capital re-consolidation of the Greek banking sector;
b) The support for growth, notably through the European Commission "Investment Plan".
The text says also that the technical agreement, which will be annexed to the bailout deal,
"has already been elaborated by the European Commission and Greece" and once
adopted in its final form, it will submitted to the Parliament together with the bailout
agreement.

Meanwhile, journalists and analysts commenting on Twitter voice their reservations,
wondering whether the proposal is enough to win support from the Eurozone. Notably in
Germany, public opinion still seems hostile. Other journalists still comment (as many did
last night immediately after the proposal went public) that the conditions are even tougher
for Greece than the ones rejected in the referendum.
Yannis Koutsomitis @YanniKouts 2h2 hours ago
#Germany Deputy CSU caucus leader Friedrich: “Greek government is either cheating their own people
or us again.” ~BBG | #Greece
Duncan Weldon @DuncanWeldon 42m42 minutes ago
2. But if Greece has capitulated on the reforms, it's not a total climb down. They are asking for years of
financing in return not months.
Vincenzo Scarpetta @LondonerVince 46m46 minutes ago
Most importantly, why hold a referendum and then agree to pretty much the same proposal rejected by
over 61% of Greek voters? #Greece
OK peeps. Let's stop talking about a *deal* yet. We're not there, yet. Hopefully we will. Monumental 72
hours ahead. DON'T JINX IT. #Greece
Andrew Neil @afneil 27m27 minutes ago
Greece has sent Brussels an austerity package tougher than the one rejected in the referendum.
Syriza: what was the point?
Peter Spiegel @SpiegelPeter 9m9 minutes ago
Post-sleep: #Greece VAT/pension plan almost identical to June troika plan. Good enuf for 3yr prog?
Does Berlin trust @atsipras to implement?
Holger Zschaepitz @Schuldensuehner 55m55 minutes ago
German CDU lawmaker Fuchs says has a little bit of problem w/ trusting Greek proposal. (RTRS)
#Grexit
Greek ball is now in German court. Either Merkel agrees to (serious) debt relief and
Bundestag backs it, or Grexit + default + EMU fiasco
Syriza has accepted terms rejected by the Greek people in the Referendum. Unless he gets debt
relief, can't see how he can sell this
4. Seems likely that *if* the Greeks carry out the reforms offered, some kind of maturity
extension/rate cut is possible.

Another insightful comment on the future of the Eurozone comes from BBC's Duncan
Weldon today:
10. Whatever happens now, Eurozone will be reformed. We may see a French vision competing
against the German one. Fascinating times ahead.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the writer and may not be regarded as stating an official position of the Council of the EU
Clause de non-responsabilité: Les avis exprimés n'engagent que leur auteur et ne peuvent être considérés comme une position officielle du Conseil de l'UE
From: GABAR Ramona
Sent: Friday, July 10, 2015 12:50 AM
Subject: Greek proposal: first comments
Greece's proposal for the institutions has been published online:
http://www.amna.gr/english/articleview.php?id=10546
http://www.hellenicparliament.gr/UserFiles/c8827c35-4399-4fbb-8ea6-aebdc768f4f7/9292390.pdf
First comments by journalists are that it is strikingly similar to the one previously tabled by the
Commission and rejected in the referendum. Some also voice scepticism that the proposal is enough
for a new deal. Peter Spiegel has noticed the proposal says nothing about debt relief and has
curiously heard that the one submitted to Parliament has a passage on debt relief.
@SpiegelPeter: One thing that strikes me about new #Greece request: It's pretty darn close to the
one 61% of Greeks voted "#OXI" against.
@MehreenKhn: Wow, Greeks have agreed nullify previous court ruling which said 40pc pension
cuts were unconstitutional http://t.co/EkepVtYyI0
@jujikucz: Comme attendu, le plan de réformes proposé par gouv #Grece est celui contre lequel il a
fait voter 61% de Grecs. Rares différences minimes.
@SpiegelPeter: With a quick read, new #Greece proposal appears to move closer to creditors on
VAT & pension reforms. But was pre-June 30 creditor position
@SpiegelPeter: New #Greece proposal appears to meet creditor demands for phasing out pension
system's "solidarity grant" by 2019
@SpiegelPeter: New #Greece proposal far less ambitious on military cuts. Only €100m this year,
€200m next. Creditors sought €400m

@DuncanWeldon: Can't emphasise enough: 1. Debt level is a long term problem for Greece. 2. In
the short term interest costs are v low. 1/2
@BrunoBrussels: New Greek government within 2 to 3 months based on these prior actions -
Greeks appear to have voted No to say Yes
http://t.co/AS31ljhnEs
@SpiegelPeter: Just re-read @atsipras & @tsakalotos letters, plus prior actions. I see no mention of
debt relief. Acknowledgement that comes later? #Greece
@SpiegelPeter: Tweeps telling me Greek document submitted to parliament has section on debt
relief. I have version sent to creditors. Not in there. #Greece
@ObsoleteDogma: @SpiegelPeter What are the differences between this and the creditors’
proposal? VAT exception for small islands only, smaller military cuts
@SKalyvas: I've written "Tsipras concedes" too many times before. Won't believe it until it actually
happens
@NickMalkoutzis: Doc submitted to Greek Parl't states proposal better than 1 rejected in
referendum 'cos of debt relief & it secures mid-term funding #Greece
@Hugodixon: 1 Big flaw in Greek proposal is it assumes same measures that would have produced
1% surplus 2 weeks ago will still produce 1% surplus
@Hugodixon: 2 My guesstimate is past 2 weeks destroyed 4% GDP & added 2% to deficit. To
counteract that would require another €3.5bn of measures
@Hugodixon: 3 creditors now have to either a) pretend damage didn't occur b) ask for €3.5bn more
austerity or c) allow Greece to run primary deficits
@Hugodixon: 4 Presumably reason fiscal targets for 2015-2017 are in brackets is because Greece
realises its numbers don't add up
@Hugodixon: 5 Tsipras is prostrating himself before the creditors with this offer & asking for
mercy
@CSpillmann: “@quatremer: Maintenant, tout est entre les mains de l'Allemagne. C'est pas gagné
selon mes sources françaises…. #Grèce”
@Suanzes: Is this enough for a deal? Honestly, I don't know
One interesting snap comment that is not related to the proposal itself:
@DuncanWeldon: Important aspect of the Greek crisis over last week or so: the return of an
assertive, independent, left leaning France as a Eurozone actor.
More in-depth comments will be analysed in our regular products tomorrow.

President Juncker's chief of cabinet Selmayr now confirms receipt of document, but refrains from
further details, as does spokesman for President Dijsselbloem. However, some rumours are that
initial assessment is "not negative" (confirms what To Vima reported earlier).
@MartinSelmayr: Now received. Signed. Three institutions will now assess. #withJuncker
@MichelReijns: No further comment from the PEG side until the institutions have finished their
assessment. #Eurogroup on Saturday 11 July
@YanniKouts: Initial reaction by the Institutions to #Greece's reform proposal was 'not negative':
Greek officials via @doleross
Mystery surrounding distribution of Greek proposal has been solved: the letter was sent, but it lacks
signature from PM Tsipras, Commission spokesman hints.
@MartinSelmayr: Signed letters are needed.
@CSpillmann: #Grèce proposition de réformes arrivée chez @J_Dijsselbloem mais pas endossée
par lettre signée par @tsipras_eu annonce @MartinSelmayr
@isabelleory: Bon visiblement les Européens ont reçu des propositions anonymes...
https://t.co/8DKBJx7m2F
@JarnoHa: The Greek letter containing list of reforms was not signed? https://t.co/KqGBQxAgRM
Of course this prompted a lot of ad-hoc humour from journalists.
@mathieuvonrohr: Frantic search for a scanner starts in Athens https://t.co/eEjeiOqY0w
@YanniKouts: @mathieuvonrohr Or Panos Kammenos boards a Greek Air Force F-16 and flies the
signed letters in subsonic speed to Brussels.
@spignal: A scanner! A scanner! My bailout for a scanner! https://t.co/IdBBmFUoDe
On a more serious note, little details emerged yet regarding the content of the proposal. As reported
by several media, Greek sources from the banking sector note that the total amount of estimated
additional tax revenues and savings amounts to 13,5 bn euros and confirm the request for a 3-year
bailout deal (until December 2018) covering financing needs of more than 61 bn euros. In its
electronic edition, "To Vima" informs that in a teleconference concluded a while ago with

Presidents Juncker and Dijseelbloem, EU institutions provided positive comments on the
proposals. Following these first signs, the government submitted the text to the Hellenic Parliament.
-- While many journalists and his own spokesman report that President Dijsselbloem received the
Greek proposal (a 10-page document, as reported by Greek media), Commission spokesperson
tweets they did not get the document yet.
@YanniKouts: #Greece reforms' proposal sent to the Institutions and #Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem
~official
@SpiegelPeter: #Eurozone authorities say they have received the #Greece economic reform
proposal
@MartinSelmayr: .@SpiegelPeter Not yet.
@MichelReijns: New Greek proposals received by #Eurogroup president @J_Dijsselbloem,
important for institutions to consider these in their assessment
@chiaradef: Proposals from #greece landed in Brussels
@FGoria: * Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem receives new Greek proposals - spokesman - RTRS
-- SKAI TV confirms that tomorrow the Hellenic Parliament, through an extraordinary and urgency
procedure, will examine the proposals in Committee and in the Plenary, and give the mandate to the
government to use them as the basis for the discussions in Eurogroup and in the Eurozone Summit.
There are also others who report that the proposal will be submitted to Parliament only after
approval by institutions.
@YanniKouts: As @LSpyropoulou tells me, Greek gov't is going to wait for green light from
Institutions before they'll submit reform package to parliament.
While the proposal of the Greek government was reportedly sent to the institutions minutes ago, the
dominant tone of voice in the mainstream media is constantly becoming more positive.

Greek deal in sight, The Telegraph writes. Les Echos describes a marathon by Greek officials to
get the proposal on the table (also showing their determination to get a deal), but also from French
authorities multiplying diplomatic efforts to gain support for the proposal. Athens accepts harsh
austerity as bailout deal nears, The Guardian writes. The Greek government capitulated
on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a
modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency
meeting of EU leaders on Sunday. Parliament is expected to endorse the package after a
frantic few days of negotiation. With the support of officials from the French finance
ministry, Greek negotiators are believed to have accepted the need for VAT rises and
rules blocking early retirement as the price of a deal.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/09/greece-debt-crisis-athens-accepts-harsh-
austerity-as-bailout-deal-nears
http://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/021198929010-athenes-entame-un-marathon-pour-eviter-le-
grexit-avec-lappui-de-bruxelles-1136060.php#xtor=RSS-52
The optimism was also fed by a softening stance regarding debt relief from Germany.
Chancellor Merkel said a classic haircut is out of the question, but tacitly opened the door to other
forms of debt restructuring, conceding that it had already been done in 2012 by stretching out
maturities, The Telegraph writes. Minister Schäuble said the possibility of some kind of debt
relief would be discussed over coming days, although he cautioned it may not provide
much help, The Guardian reports.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11730086/Greek-deal-in-sight-as-Germany-bows-
to-huge-global-pressure-for-debt-relief.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The government is preparing to rush the proposal through parliament as early as Friday, the
FT reports among others. Greece’s cabinet approved the plan, which includes increases in value
added tax and savings from public pensions demanded by creditors, the paper adds.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2230b2ec-260b-11e5-9c4e-a775d2b173ca.html?siteedition=intl
Some media pretend they have seen the proposal prepared by the Greek government and argue that
there is a big problem: supposedly there are no pension cuts (contrary to what the FT has learned, as
said above). The plan may not be "capitulatory" enough, some warn. I have not found a link to
the supposed leaked proposal, so I don't know how reliable it is.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/greek-compromise-proposal-leaked-and-there-may-
be-problem

Greek media also report that the proposal could be put to vote in Parliament already tomorrow.
It is unclear though under which form (declaration?) such a vote could take place.
This endeavour is considered to be a clear sign of the "strong political will across parties for
implementation of the measures".
Some journalists doubt that the government could proceed in that way, thus preceding any
Eurogroup position.
The President of Hellenic Parliament, Zoi Konstantopoulou has been called to Maximos Mansion
(PM Office) this evening for discussions on the time-schedule for the approval of the bailout
programme.
The personal position of the President on the approval itself remains a mystery.
"Kathimerini" considers that the Parliament could remain open during the weekend.
-- In a long interview with Mediapart, a senior advisor to the Greek government, who has been at
the heart of the negotiations, describes the supposed extraordinary bullying of Greece’s government
by the creditors. The recollections include a reported threat by President Dijsselbloem to cause the
collapse of the Hellenic banks if the government failed to sign-up to a drastic austerity programme,
and also by Minister Schäuble, who he says demanded: "How much money do you want to leave
the euro?" The advisor also claims that supposed declarations made at the Eurogroup can never be
proved true or false, because there are no minutes of the meetings. "So everybody can come out and
say anything they like." He said he advocated taking their legal case to the EUropean Court of
Justice, but now it is too late for that. "Let the whole world know the eurozone is committing a
crime against humanity", he wanted to show.
http://www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/international/080715/we-underestimated-their-power-greek-
government-insider-lifts-lid-five-months-humiliation-and-blackm?onglet=full
-- Commissioner Moscovici has written a blogpost where he says that a Greek exit is not the
solution, but rather helping Greece making its way back to Europe.
@pierremoscovici: Excommunier #Grèce n'est pas la solution. Au contraire la ramener vers l'#

Greek crisis - ad-hoc monitoring

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