12. The Development of Technology: From
Knowledge Generation to Diffusion
The Development of Technology: From
Knowledge Generation to Diffusion
Basic
Knowledge
Invention Innovation Diffusion
IMITATION
ADOPTION
Supply side
Demand side
7–12
13. The Development of Technology: Lags Between
Knowledge Generation and Commercialization
The Development of Technology: Lags Between
Knowledge Generation and Commercialization
BASIC FIRST PRODUCT IMITATION
KNOWLEDGE PATENTS LAUNCH
Xerography late 19th and 1940 1958 1974
early 20th
centuries
Jet Engines 17th-- early 1930 1957 1959
20th centuries
Fuzzy logic 1960’s 1981 1987 1988
controllers
14. Appropriation of Value:- How are the
Benefits from Innovation Distributed?
Appropriation of Value:- How are the
Benefits from Innovation Distributed?
Customers
Suppliers
Imitators and
other
“followers”
Innovator
7–14
15. The Profitability of Innovation
The Profitability of Innovation
• Legal protection
• Complementary
resources
• Imitability of the
technology
•Lead time
Profits
from
Innovation
Value of the
innovation
Innovator’s
ability to
appropriate the
value of the
innovation
7–15
16. Legal Protection of Intellectual Property
Legal Protection of Intellectual Property
• Patents —exclusive rights to a new product,
process, substance or design.
• Copyrights —exclusive rights to artistic, dramatic,
and musical works.
• Trademarks — exclusive rights to words, symbols
or other marks to distinguish goods
and services; trademarks are
registered with the Patent Office.
• Trade Secrets — protection of chemical formulae,
recipes, and industrial processes.
Also, private contracts between firms and between a firm and its
iemployees can restrict the transfer of technology and know how.
7–16
17. U.S. Managers’ Perceptions of the Effectiveness of
Different Mechanisms for Protecting Innovation
U.S. Managers’ Perceptions of the Effectiveness of
Different Mechanisms for Protecting Innovation
Processes Products
Patents to prevent duplication 3.52 4.33
Patents to secure royalty income 3.31 3.75
Secrecy 4.31 3.57
Lead time 5.11 5.41
Moving quickly down the learning 5.02 5.09
curve
Sales or service efforts 4.55 5.59
1 = not at all effective 7 = very effective
Source: Levin, Klevorick, Nelson & Winter. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1987.
18. Risk &
Return
Competing
Resources
Examples
Licensing
Outsourcing
certain
functions
Strategic
Alliance
Joint
Venture
Internal
Commercialization
Small risk, but
limited returns
also (unless
patent position
very strong
Limits
investment, but
dependence on
suppliers &
partners
Benefits of
flexibility;
risks of
informal
structure
Shares
investment &
risk. Risk of
partner
conflict &
culture clash
Biggest risks &
benefits.
Allows complete
control
Few Allows outside
resources &
capabilities
To be accessed
Permits pooling of the
resources/capabilities of
more than one firm
Substantial
resource
requirements
Konica
licensing its
digital
camera to
HP
Pixar’s movies (e.g.
“Toy Story”)
marketed &
distributed by
Disney.
Apple and
Sharp build
the
“Newton”
PDA
Microsoft
and NBC
formed
MSNBC
TI’s
development of
Digital Signal
Processing
Chips
Alternative Strategies for Exploiting Innovation
Alternative Strategies for Exploiting Innovation
7–18
19. The Comparative Success of Leaders and
Followers
The Comparative Success of Leaders and
Followers
PRODUCT INNOVATOR FOLLOWER WINNER
Jet Airliners De Havilland (Comet) Boeing (707) Follower
Float glass Pilkington Corning Leader
X-Ray Scanner EMI General Electric Follower
Office P.C. Xerox IBM Follower
VCRs Ampex/Sony Matsushita Follower
Diet Cola R.C. Cola Coca Cola Follower
Instant Cameras Polaroid Kodak Leader
Pocket Calculator Bowmar Texas Instruments Follower
Microwave Oven Raytheon Samsung Follower
Plain Paper Copiers Xerox Canon Not clear
Fiber Optic Cable Corning many companies Leader
Video Games Players Atari Nintendo/Sega/Sony Followers
Disposable Diapers Proctor & Gamble Kimberly-Clark Leader
Web browser Netscape Microsoft Follower
PDA Psion, Apple Palm Follower
MP3 music players Diamond Multimedia Sony (&others) Followers
7–19
20. Uncertainty & Risk Management in Tech-based Industries
Uncertainty & Risk Management in Tech-based Industries
Sources of
uncertainty
Technological
uncertainty
Selection process for standards and
dominant designs emerge is complex
and diifficult to predict, e.g. future of 3G
Customer acceptance and adoption rates
of innovations notoriously difficult to
predict, e.g. PC, Xerox copier, Walkman
Market
uncertainty
Strategies for
managing risk
Cooperating with lead users
early identification of customer requirements
–assistance in new product development
Flexibilility
—keep options open
—use speed of response to adapt
quickly to new information
—learn from mistakes
Limiting risk exposure
—avoid major capital commitments
(e.g. lease don’t buy)
—outsource
—alliances to access other firms’
resources & capabilities
—keep debt low
7–20
21. Sources of Network Externalities
Sources of Network Externalities
• User linkages, e.g.
– Telephone systems—only value of telephone is connection to
other users
– Video game consoles—same platform allows users to
exchange games and play interactively
– On-line auction—value of auction depends on number of
buyers and sellers participating
Also, social identification—listening to same music, watching
same TV shows, wearing same clothes in order to conform
• Availability of complementary products, e.g.
– Most PC applications software written for Windows, not Mac.
– In economy autos, easier to get parts and repair for a Ford
Focus than for a Maruti or Proton
• Economizing on switching costs, e.g.
– In suites of office software, users of Microsoft Office more
likely to avoid switching costs that users of Lotus SmartSuite
when they move jobs
7–21
22. Competing for Standards:
Value Appropriation vs. Market Acceptance
Competing for Standards:
Value Appropriation vs. Market Acceptance
Maximize
value
appropriation
Maximize
market
acceptance
LOOSE TIGHT
VHS
IBM-PC Mac
Betamax
26. Some Standards Die Hard:
QWERTY vs. DSK
• QWERTY introduced in 1870s
Slowed down typing to avoid jamming keys
• Dvorak introduced in 1930s
Minimized finger reach to speed up typing
7–26
38. 1–38
GE’s Innovation Mantra:
Disrupt Yourself!
• GE Healthcare – global leader in diagnostics
Ultrasound machine for research hospitals – $250,000
Limited market for these in developing countries
2002 local team at GE China – developed portable US
Laptop-based technology – Under $30,000 for U.S. rollout
2009 introduced a handheld US – about $10,000
Vscan - large cell phone – shaped device
It’s a cross between an iPod and a flip phone
Doctors can hang it around their neck 7–38
43. The Internet as Disruptive Force: The Long Tail
• Long tail in a digital world
Both opportunity and threat
80% sales in a given category are NOT “hits”
Pareto principle
Technology enables easier access to the ‘tail’
Selling “less of more”
Online firms can gain a large share of revenue from selling a
small number of nearly unlimited choices
• Short head is the mainstream
Available at brick & mortar stores
Significant inventory costs
44. The Long-Tail Consequences: Selling Less of More
25% to 45% of sales for online retailers is from products
NOT available in traditional retail stores. 7–44
This image shows how many years it took for different technological innovations to reach 50 percent of the U.S. population (either through ownership or usage). For example, it took 84 years for half of the U.S. population to own a car, but only 28 years for half the population to own a TV. The pace of the adoption rate of recent innovations continues to accelerate. It took 19 years for the PC to reach 50 percent ownership, but only 6 years for MP3 players to accomplish the same diffusion rate.
Along the horizontal axis, we ask whether the innovation builds on existing technologies or creates a new one. On the vertical axis, we ask whether the innovation is targeted toward existing or new markets. Four types of innovations emerge: incremental, radical, architectural, and disruptive. As indicated by the color coding in the exhibit, each diagonal forms a pair: incremental versus radical innovation and architectural versus disruptive innovation.
From a value chain perspective, producers create or make available a product or service that consumers use. The owner of the platform controls the platform IP address and controls who may participate and in what ways. The providers offer the interfaces for the platform, enabling its accessibility online.
New sources of value creation and supply—To grow, traditional competitors such as Marriott or Hilton would need to add additional rooms to their existing stock. To add new hotel room inventory to their chains, they would need to find suitable real estate, develop and build a new hotel, furnish all the rooms, and hire and train staff to run the new hotel. This often takes years, not to mention the multimillion-dollar upfront investments required and the risks involved. In contrast, Airbnb faces no such constraints because it does not own any real estate, nor does it manage any hotels. Just like Marriott or Hilton, however, it uses sophisticated pricing and booking systems to allow guests to find a large variety of rooms pretty much anywhere in the world to suit their needs.
Community feedback: TripAdvisor, a travel website, derives significant value from the large amount of quality reviews (including pictures) by its users of hotels, restaurants, and so on. This enables TripAdvisor to consummate more effective matches between hotels and guests via its website, thus creating more value for all participants.
Network effects: Growing its user base is critical for Netflix to sustain its competitive advantage. Netflix has been hugely successful in attracting new users: As of 2017 it had some 95 million subscribers worldwide. Yet, while providing a large selection of high-quality streaming content is a necessity of the Netflix business model, this element can and has been easily duplicated by others such as Amazon, Hulu, and premium services on Google’s YouTube. To lock in its large installed base of users, however, Netflix has begun producing and distributing original content such as the hugely popular shows House of Cards and Orange Is the New Black. To sustain its competitive advantage going forward, Netflix needs to rely on its core competencies, including its proprietary recommendation engine, data-driven content investments, and network infrastructure management.
As Netflix acquires additional streaming content, it increases the value of its subscription service to customers, resulting in more people signing up. With more customers, Netflix could then afford to provide more and higher-quality content, further increasing the value of the subscription to its users. This created a virtuous cycle that increased the value of a Netflix subscription as more subscribers signed up.
Uber provides incentives for drivers to sign up (such as extending credit so that potential drivers can purchase vehicles) and also charges lower than market rates for its rides. As more and more drivers sign up in each city and thus coverage density rises accordingly, the service becomes more convenient. This drives more demand for its services as more riders choose Uber, which in turn brings in more drivers.
To entice more drivers to work during this time, Uber has to pay them more. Higher pay will bring more drivers onto the platform. Some users complain about surge pricing, but it allows Uber to match supply and demand in a dynamic fashion. As surge pricing kicks in, fewer people will demand rides, eventually bringing supply and demand back into an equilibrium.