Fundamenatal and technical analysis of Lupin and BOLLINGER BANDS & STOCHASTIC

1. Fundamental And Technical
Analysis Of LUPIN
By
P Bhaskar Rakesh

2. Indian Pharmaceutical Sector
• As per 'Pharma Vision 2020', the Government of India aims to make
India a global leader in end-to-end drug manufacturing.
• With a scintillating revenue of USD 12.29 billion, the Indian pharma
industry bagged the position of being the third largest in the world.
• Manufacturing costs in India are approximately 35-40 per cent of
those in the US due to low installation and manufacturing costs.
• Pharmaceutical exports from India have grown at a CAGR of 21 per
cent over the last decade.
• Indian vaccines are exported to 150 countries.
• The projected human resource requirement in the Indian pharma
sector is estimated to be about 21,50,000 by 2020

3. Pharma Manufacturing & Patents
• India is home to 10,500 manufacturing units and over 3,000
pharmaceutical companies.
• India accounts for 36.9 per cent (3,411) of the 9,296 Drug
Master Files (DMFs) filed with the USA, which is the highest
outside of the USA (as on December 31, 2013).
• Higher spending on R&D, owing to products patents have
made India a major destination for generic drug
manufacturing.
• Following the introduction of product patents, several
multinational companies are expected to launch patented
drugs in India

4. Exports
• India's pharma exports stood at US$ 25 billion in
2014-15.
• Pharmaceutical exports from India have grown at
a CAGR of 21 per cent over the last decade.
• India ranks fourth in terms of the total pharma
market share in the Asia Pacific.
• Approximately 70 per cent of the patients in
developing countries receive Indian medicines
through NGOs like The Clinton Foundation, Bill &
Melinda Gates Foundation, Doctors Without
Borders etc.

5. Household Spend & Growth in Rural
India
• The Government of India is committed to setting up robust
healthcare and delivery mechanisms.
• Due to increasing population and income levels, demand
for high-end drugs in India is expected to reach US$ 8
billion by the end of FY15.
• Expenditure on pharmaceuticals is likely to increase to over
40 per cent of the total spending on healthcare by
households by the end of FY15.
• With 70 per cent of India's population residing in rural
markets, various pharma companies are investing in the
distribution network in rural areas
• The domestic pharma market to grow at 10-12 per cent in
FY15 as compared to 9 per cent in FY14.

6. COMPANY PROFILE
• Lupin is a transnational company engaged in development of generic and branded
formulations.
• It is the largest manufacturer of Tuberculosis drugs in the world having onshore
and offshore presence of its products in 70 countries.
• Its manufacturing unit is located in Goa, Tarapur, Ankleshwar, Jammu,
Mandideep, Indore, Aurangabad and Kyowa in Japan
• Lupin Receives FDA Approval for Generic Actos Tablets.
• Lupin Receives FDA Approval for Generic Celebrex Capsules
• Lupin acquired Laboratories Grin S.A. De C.V., Mexico; Specialty Ophthalmic
Company; Enters the Latin American Market. Lupin acquired Nanomi B.V. - Enters
Complex Injectables Space.
• The Economic Times 500 rankings - India’s 10 most resilient companies
• Dun & Bradstreet Corporate Awards 2014 - Top Indian company in pharma sector
• Great Place to Wok - Best companies to work for 2014
• After providing for taxes and minority interest, net profit was Rs. 18363.7 million,
higher by 40% over the previous year.

7. • Lupin acquired 100 percent equity stake in Medquimica
Farmaceutica, Brazil in May 2015.
• ICRA Limited reaffirmed its "[ICRA] A1+" (pronounced "ICRA
A one plus") rating for the Company's working capital lines
of Rs. 15000 million from banks indicating a very strong
degree of safety for timely payment of financial obligations.
• Lupin has received approval from the US health regulator to
sell a generic version of Vancocin capsules, used in treating
diarrhoea, in the American market.
• Drug maker Lupin has launched generic version of Diovan
tablets, a hypertension drug, in the US market after getting
approval from the American health regulator.

8. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS

9. Rankings of the selected stocks

10. BOLLINGER BANDS & STOCHASTIC

11. MACD

12. SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVEL
(FIBONACCI) & RSI

13. RECOMMENDATIONS
• R2- RS. 1983
• R3- RS. 1901
• CMP- RS. 1839
• S1- RS. 1791
• S2- RS. 1746
• TP- RS. 1900
• SL- RS. 1795
• HOLD CALL – LONG TERM
• BUY CALL – SHORT TERM