2. Wat eten wij in 20 minuten?
Source: www.poodwaddle.com date: 18 November 2012
1
For internal use only
3. DWS Investments
The global mutual fund manager of Deutsche Bank
Presence in 72 countries worldwide
Corporate Banking Global Transaction Asset & Wealth Private & Business
& Securities Banking Management Clients
Asset Private Wealth
Management Management
Deutsche Asset Management
Retail Institutional
Insurance
Alternatives
EUR 547 bn1)
Note: 1) Data as of June 30, 2012.
Source: Deutsche Bank.
2
For internal use only
4. Hoe de wereld te blijven voeden?
“More food will have to be produced over the next decades than has been
produced during the past 10,000 years combined.” (FAO)
Urbanisatie
Vraag
Onderinvestering
Afnemende hoeveelheid
Groeiende wereldbevolking
landbouwgrond
Veranderd voedselpatroon
Biobrandstoffen
Aanbod
3
For internal use only
5. Grotere middenklasse
Bevolking per inkomens categorie Inkomens-elasticiteit
People, Billions
All food Cereals Oils and fats
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
LIC MIC HIC LIC MIC HIC LIC MIC HIC
ICP = International Comparison Program, a Wold Bank program
covering 146 countries
LIC = Lower income countries
MIC = Middle income countries
HIC = High income countries
2006 ICP 1996 ICP
Source: USDA,, Economic Research Service analysis of international Comparison
Program data, World Bank.
4
For internal use only
7. Urbanisatie - van Mega to Meta
14.0
World Infrastucture Spendings
12.0
in trillion USD
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008
Source: GTP, own calculations, April 2012
Kuala Lumpur - 1974 Kuala Lumpur - 2005
Source: Wikipedia, March 2007
For internal use only
8. Apple = een hele wereld met voedsel?
Source: DWS, GTP, April 2012
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For internal use only
9. Agribusiness²
Het concept van niet lineariteit
Groeiende Meer calorieën
wereldbevolking per inwoner
Toenemende Eiwitrijke voeding
urbanisatie
8
For internal use only
10. Te veel eten bereikt nooit het bord
FOOD LOSS AND WASTE PER PERSON AND YEAR (in kg)
Source: FAO, 2012 Source of picture: Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division Washington
For internal use only
11. Voedselprijzen op hoger niveau
UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index
In 2011 food prices reached another
In 2008 record food prices triggered all-time high.
riots around the world.
240
Source Bloomberg; Version: June 2012
220
200
180
160
140
120
CAGR + 7.0%
100
80
01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12
2006 2008 2011 CAGR
Tarwe $384 $583 $620 10%
Maïs $236 $461 $583 20%
Sojabonen $392 $860 $967 20%
Source: Bloomberg; Version: October 2011
10
For internal use only
12. DWS Invest Global Agribusiness
Fondsmanager Ralf Oberbannscheidt
11
For internal use only
13. Van de bodem tot bord..
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
53%
26%
15%
6%
Resource Owners Facilitators Value Adders Distributors
Machinery Agri. products Packaged Food Retailer
Fertilizer Machinery Meat & Bev. Restaurants
Seeds Logistic Aquaculture Services
Source: DWS
Data as per end of August 2012
12
For internal use only
14. VS droogte verraste veel mensen..
De ergste droogte in de VS in 50 jaar duwt de prijzen van
landbouwgrondstoffen naar recordhoogtes.
Source: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
13
For internal use only
15. Investeringsmogelijkheid: Zaden & Gewasbescherming
UPSTREAM
Million $
Lange termijn groei in zaden & 50000
gewasbescherming
CAGR
45000 8.10%
GM gemodificeerde zaden met
boven-gemiddelde groei 40000
Agro-chemische prijzen 35000
verbeteren in 2012
30000
25000
CAGR
20000 5.36%
CAGR
15000
21.78%
10000
5000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Prelim
Crop Protection GM Seed Conventional Seed
Source: Philipps Mc Dougal, February 2012
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For internal use only
16. Zandloper theorie: de „consument“ bestaat niet
DOWNSTREAM
Percentage van het inkomen naar voeding.. Premium
40 Food
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Lowest income quintile Middle income quintile Highest income quintile Private
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Label
46 % 43 %
Weighted Global Average:
32 % 31 % 28 % 14.9 %
17 %
5% 5%
1%
Note: Average annual incomes for the quintiles in 2009 were $9,846 for the lowest, $46,012 for the middle, and $157.631 for the highest.
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Expenditure Survey. 2004-09.
15
For internal use only
17. Flexibel in allocatie
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
09/07 03/08 09/08 03/09 09/09 03/10 09/10 03/11 09/11 03/12
UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
Resource Owners Facilitators Value Adders Collectors/Distributors
Flexibility is king
Source: DWS
Version: August 2012
De allocaties kunnen zonder voorgaande kennisgeving gewijzigd worden
16
For internal use only
18. DWS Invest Global Agribusiness
Performance since inception (LC-share class in EUR)
+ 25.2%
+ 5.4%
*) DWS Invest Global Agribusiness has no Benchmark. The MSCI World (RI) Index and S&P GSCI Agri TR-Index are shown for information purposes
Calculation of performance is based on the time-weighted return and excludes front-end fees. Individual costs such as fees, commissions and other charges have not been
included in this presentation and would have an adverse impact on returns if they were included. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.
November 20, 2006 = 100
Source: DWS, Thomson Reuters Datastream
As of: October 31, 2012
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For internal use only
19. DWS Invest Global Agribusiness
Top tien posities
Top tien posities Investment ratio
in % of fund volume
as of: End of October 2012
De posities kunnen zonder voorgaande kennisgeving gewijzigd worden
18
For internal use only
20. Agribusiness² = Goede investeringsmogelijkheden
De exponentiële groei vd vraag wordt V.b.: Zaden & Gewasbeschermings
nog steeds onderschat bedrijven, Supply chain
managers
Speel de “zandloper” theorie
Beleg over de hele waardeketen
Private label & Premium
19
For internal use only
21. DWS Invest Global Agribusiness
Samenvatting
Universe: Over de hele „Agribusiness voedselketen“
Style: Actief, flexibele allocatie
Benchmark: Geen officiële benchmark, thema fonds
Process: Actief stock picking, gebaseerd op
fundamentele research, ESG bewust
Instruments: Aandelen, geen derivaten, geen valuta-
afdekking
Allocation: 80-100 bedrijven
20
For internal use only
22. DWS Invest Global Agribusiness
Agribusiness is a
natural growth story
21
For internal use only