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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC

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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC's presentation at the RAF Air Power Conference 2015

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Colonel (Retd) Thomas X Hammes USMC

  1. 1. 1 Small, smart, many versus few and bespoke Dr. T. X. Hammes Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University
  2. 2. America according to the World 2 Even bigger idiots
  3. 3. Subject of talk Tasked to with what West will use But drones are also the threat  High end to super empowered small groups and individuals 3
  4. 4. Emerging Threats SLIDE 5 Air and sea defense Cyber and space SLDIE 6 - Small smart and many – vs few and exquisite Can they defeat us by attacking bases, ships, supplies, individual vehicles Driven by technology convergence 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. 77 Situation today Extremely rapid technological change  Many related fields  Materials science  Energetics  Robotics  Artificial Intelligence  3d Printing Unprecedented?
  8. 8. 88 1914-1939 Metallurgy Power systems –  Steam turbines  Internal combustion engines Electronics - Radio/radar Weaponry
  9. 9. 99 Post WWI Naval SLIDE 10 USN focuses on battleships  Dominant form of naval system  Post-WWI commissioned 18, building 2  Primary interwar investment of USN Commercial development in aircraft  Rapid advancement in capabilities  Minimal USN investment – 5 CVs, 3 converted ships Little on submarines
  10. 10. 1914 - 1939 10
  11. 11. Changing today Nano – materials, explosives, batteries -12 Drones – range, payload, materials -13 Artificial intelligence – 3D Printing - SLIDE 12 11
  12. 12. Nano-energetics 12 SLIDE 7
  13. 13. 13 For sale today
  14. 14. AI/Autonomous Drones 1414
  15. 15. AI - Autonomy What think of – what is RANGE – Transatlantic 1998 composite PAYLOAD – ounces to hundreds of # COST - $300 to billion DIY projects  Find red objects--Follow a person’s face Amazon project  20 lbs, 100 miles  Non-GPS Swiss post office 15
  16. 16. 3D: Capability + Volume 16 113 materials – 100 times faster - SLIDE
  17. 17. IED that hunts you https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature =player_embedded&v=QRrSriR5b6s 17
  18. 18. Forest Racing – Star Wars is here? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL 0t5kPf6E Forest racing drones 1:10 to 2:15 18
  19. 19. 19 --Ukranian drones support militia --Funded by mothers --Flown by volunteers
  20. 20. 3D Printed, Autonomous Drone 00 – 0:30 20
  21. 21. Slocum Glider 2121
  22. 22. Implications Power projection using conventional platforms becomes much more difficult  Does tactical defense gain an edge?  APOE/APODs vulnerable?  Major bases vulnerable? Unconventional attackers only “bring the detonator?” National mobilization of industry? 22
  23. 23. Everyone has them – and they are evolving https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 23
  24. 24. Airpower’s role Hold high ground Defend the homeland Provide strike  Support joint/combined force  Manage unsolvable problems 24
  25. 25. 2525 Contact Information txhammes1@gmail.com
  26. 26. Backup slides Additional videos of drones 26
  27. 27. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHo 7x2Vcjjg Drone Warfare for the Poor 2:00 to 27
  28. 28. http://www.wired.com/2014/09/military- grade-drone-can-printed-anywhere/ 1:45 $2500, off the shelf 40 minutes, autonomous (android phone) 1.5 lbs New printing 25 times faster. 28
  29. 29. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hM R86-6J7Y 10:00 to 10:45 Drones cost approaches zero https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZwL 0t5kPf6E Forest racing drones 2:45 to 3:15 29
  30. 30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSY QyAljYOY Autonomous drone with LIDAR https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU pmPUcnuBY&feature=youtu.be&autopl ay=1 Drone with immersion goggles 30

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