This document from Greenlight VR discusses perspectives on virtual reality (VR). It summarizes that VR is a new medium that is different from video and will involve an immersive experience for users rather than passive viewing. It also notes the industry will experience growing pains as standards are unclear and consumers are confused in the early years. The document outlines several potential consumer and enterprise use cases for VR and provides estimates for revenues and market sizes in various sectors in the coming years.

1. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Business Intelligence for Virtual Realities™
www.greenlightvr.com April 12, 2016
Virtual Reality

2. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Business Intelligence for Virtual Realities™
www.greenlightvr.com April 12, 2016
Virtual Reality

3. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
GreenlightVR
• 1-Year old boutique, providing research and
advisory services in VR. Based in San
Francisco. Fueled by passion, wonder and
caffeine.
Steve Marshall
• Background in research, analysis, management
consulting, finance. MBA. Avid outdoorsperson.
Increasingly self-actualized.
Who?

4. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Contents
1. Our Point of View
2. The Business Perspective
3. Things to Wrap Your Head Around

5. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #1
VR is a different kind of
animal…

6. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #1
VR is a different kind of
animal…
An animal nobody yet
understands!

7. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #2
VR is NOT the latest
video format…

8. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR is Not the Latest Video Format: #2
Source: GreenlightVR analysis
Aspect of Medium Video (Linear) Virtual Reality
Optimal use of the
medium
• Storytelling (viewing a
mediated story)
• Having an experience
Control • Director • Viewer
Relationship
between viewer and
content
• “Third wall” separation • Immersive
Typical session
duration
• 100+ minutes • 10+ minutes

9. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR IS a cluster of related
technologies…
Our Point of View: #3

10. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR IS a cluster of related
technologies…
Our Point of View: #3

11. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
& Related
Virtual Realities™: #3

12. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #4
Consumers are
going to be as
confused as hell…

13. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #4
The nice thing about
standards is there
are so many to
choose from!

14. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #5
Content will make or
break
Virtual Realities™…

15. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #5
However, our brand new survey of independent developers
finds them to be:

16. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #6
Wow, this stuff is
really trippy, man…

17. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Our Point of View: #6
Oooooh, I think
I’m gonna be sick
(or maybe it’s a
just a hairball).

18. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
The Next Few Years for the Virtual Realities™
• Producers who don’t understand the medium
• Uninformed analysts and investors
• Platform wars and confused consumers
• Inexperienced and undercapitalized developers
• A ‘psychedelic’ aspect to usage
Put it all together, and…

19. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
There will be
blood
The Next Few Years for the Virtual Realities™

20. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Contents
1. Our Point of View
2. The Business Perspective
3. Things to Wrap Your Head Around

21. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
• Games – to be sure!
• Entertainment
• Live Events
Consumer Use Cases: Foundational
30%-50% of the
market

22. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Games: The Value Proposition
As understood by the business press
and most 14-year olds:

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Forecast Drivers (some examples):
• Overall shape and characteristics of the adoption
curve
• Percentage of PCs that are VR-ready
• Growth rates of PC gaming and social communities
• Historical attach rates for consoles and PCs
Games: A Glimpse into Our Forecast Methodology

24. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
• Games – to be sure!
• Entertainment
• Live Events
• Social Networking
• Routine Communications
• Adult Content
Consumer Use Cases: Wild Cards
30%-50% of the
market
Wild cards!

25. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
• Games – to be sure!
• Entertainment
• Live Events
• Social Networking
• Routine Communications
• Adult Content
Consumer Use Cases: Wild Cards
30%-50% of the
market
Wild cards!

26. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
• Games – to be sure!
• Entertainment
• Live Events
• Social Networking
• Routine Communications
• Adult Content
• Professional & Enterprise
Verticals/Use Cases
Professional & Enterprise Use Cases
30%-50% of the
market
Wild cards!
20%-40% of the
market

27. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: The Value Proposition
Incremental Value of VR >>
Incremental Cost of VR + Hassle to VR

28. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: The Value Proposition
Incremental Value of VR
Value that can be
captured (monetized) by
the VR provider

29. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: The Value Proposition
Incremental Cost of VR
Cost borne by the VR
producer (e.g. content
producer)
Cost borne by the VR
distributor/user (e.g.
hardware, training)

30. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: The Value Proposition
Hassle to VR
Hassle of HMDs,
infrastructure
(processing, cloud,
power, heat, etc.)

31. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: The Value Proposition
Incremental Value of VR >> Incremental
Cost of VR + Hassle to VR

32. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise: 4 Top Use Cases

33. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise:
Military & Law Enforcement
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Control of weapons systems (particularly UAVs
such as drones)
• Combat training
• Theater and battlefield operations
• Maintenance training and support (esp. military
equipment, machinery and electronics)
• Routine and field medical training and support
There will also be civilian law enforcement
counterparts to some of these implementations.

34. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise:
Military & Law Enforcement
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Control of weapons systems (particularly UAVs
such as drones)
• Combat training
• Theater and battlefield operations
• Maintenance training and support (esp. military
equipment, machinery and electronics)
• Routine and field medical training and support
There will also be civilian law enforcement
counterparts to some of these implementations.

35. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise:
Health Care: Treatment
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Education and training (particularly in
anatomy and surgery)
• Navigation for surgical or other invasive
procedures (including control of surgical
robots, such as da Vinci)
• Restorative and remedial therapies for
conditions including: PTSD, phobias, mood
and personality disorders, etc.
• Telemedicine (remote-controlled medical
procedures)

36. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Professional & Enterprise:
Health Care: Treatment
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Education and training (particularly in
anatomy and surgery)
• Navigation for surgical or other invasive
procedures (including control of surgical
robots, such as Da Vinci)
• Restorative and remedial therapies for
conditions including: PTSD, phobias, mood
and personality disorders, etc.
• Telemedicine (remote-controled medical
procedures)

37. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Health Care: Management & Administration
Professional & Enterprise:
• Display of medical and management
information in situ, via AR or Mixed Reality
headsets.
• Display of EMRs (Electronic Medical
Records)
• Display of hospital operational information
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket

38. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Health Care: Management & Administration
Professional & Enterprise:
• Display of medical and management
information in situ, via AR or Mixed Reality
headsets.
• Display of EMRs (Electronic Medical
Records)
• Display of hospital operational information
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket

39. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Manufacturing
Professional & Enterprise:
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Specialized manufacturing implementations
for design and manufacturing. Could include:
extreme environments, nano-scale, complex
inter-related systems (e.g. aerospace).
• Control of 3D printers

40. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Manufacturing
Professional & Enterprise:
2025: Revenues
$1 B - $5 B bracket
• Specialized manufacturing implementations
for design and manufacturing. Could include:
extreme environments, nano-scale, complex
inter-related systems (e.g. aerospace).
• Control of 3D printers

41. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Sorting out the Market: VR
There will be a natural “sorting
out” process by which
platforms/HMDs, content,
distribution channels, and
monetization models get
“mapped” to the right use
cases.

42. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Sorting out the Market: VR
Lightweight
Example: Google Cardboard
Mobile
Example: Samsung Gear
Tethered (High-End)
Example: HTC Vive

43. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Like many industry observers, independent developers expect high compound
growth rates for the industry over the next couple of years.
Q6. What is your estimate of the annual growth rate for VR/AR over the next 2 years (the next 24 months)?
Source: GreenlightVR developer survey March, 2016.
2%
0%
8%
25%
23%
33%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Less than 5% 5%-9% 10%-19% 20%-49% 50%-99% 100%-200% Over 200%
(Please specify)
Developers Foresee Dramatic Growth Rates

44. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
“Tipping Point” for the Industry Expected in 2-3 Years
Q7. When do you think VR/AR will reach a “tipping point” in growth – i.e. growth will increase noticeably and the space will be considered mainstream?
Source: GreenlightVR developer survey March, 2016.
0%
16%
10%
25%
37%
12%
2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
More than 5 years
5 years
4 years
3 years
2 years
1 year
Within 1 year
Developers, with their insider perspective, believe the VA/AR industry is 2-3 years
away from the “tipping point” at which it becomes a mainstream space.

45. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
What Size for the HMD Market?
scenarios for worldwide HMD market, in 2025:

46. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
What Size for the HMD Market?
“Accelerated Uptake” Case
@ 7.3X
“Delayed Update” Case!
scenarios for worldwide HMD market, in 2025:

47. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Contents
1. Our Point of View
2. The Business Perspective
3. Things to Wrap Your Head Around

48. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Mash-ups that may
be even more
impactful than VR
plus other
technologies…
VR Mash Ups

49. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Everything Else
VR +
VR Mash Ups

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VR +
Psychology
VR Mash Ups

51. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR Mash Ups
Religion
VR +

52. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR +
Activism
VR Mash Ups

53. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR +
Science
VR Mash Ups

54. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR +
Art
VR Mash Ups

55. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
VR: The Long and Winding Road
Thank you…

56. © COPYRIGHT 2016. GREENLIGHT VR, INC. PROPRIETARY AND CONFIDENTIAL.
Greenlight VR
605 Market Street, San Francisco, CA 94103 USA
Email: Research@greenlightvr.com Website: www.greenlightvr.com
Stephen Marshall
Clifton Dawson
www.GreenlightVR.com
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