Klingbeil, R., 2011. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East - Some Considerations. Presentation at the BMZ-GIZ-Conference Water and Climate Change in the MENA-Region: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Best Practices. 28-29 April 2011, Berlin, Germany.

1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change
in the Middle East:
Challenges to Water Management
Berlin, Germany Ralf Klingbeil
28-29 April 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water

2. Opening Quotes
• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.”
Anthony (Tony) Allan
Stockholm World Water Prize Laureate, 2008
• “Arabs are already in the
heart of the water catastrophe.”
• “Any delay in a serious response to the
water challenge corresponds to mass suicide.
The water apocalypse is knocking on
Arab doors, right now.”
Najib Saab, Secretary General AFED on 12 June 2010
Winner of the UAE Zayed International Prize for the Environment 2011
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2

3. Iraq: Displacement due to Drought
IOM, July 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3

4. Iraq: Water Needs 2008 - 2010
IOM, July 2010
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4

5. Outline
• UN ESCWA:
One of the five UN Regional Commissions
• Water - Challenges
• Scarcity
– Resources, Competition, Governance
• Climate Change in the Region
– Understanding Impacts and Vulnerabilities
– Making Adaptation Work
• Main messages
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6. UN ESCWA and the
Regional Dimension in the UN
ECE
1947
ESCWA
ECLAC 1973
1948
ECA ESCAP
1958 1947
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7. UN ESCWA
• 14 Member Countries
• Bahrain
• Egypt
• Iraq
• Jordan
• Kuwait
• Lebanon
• Qatar
• Oman
• Palestine
• Saudi Arabia
• Sudan
• Syrian Arab Republic
• United Arab Emirates
• Yemen
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8. Water - Challenges
• Status and Trends
• Availability vs. Use and Demand
• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable
• Population Growth and Agriculture
• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources
• Virtual Water
• Water Imports and Transfers
• Desalination
• Transboundary Water and Aquifers
• ... and Climate Change
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9. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources
per Capita. by Region
FAO AQUASTST, WB 2007
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10. Percent of Total Renewable Water
Resources Withdrawn, by Region
FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 2007
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11. Total Renewable Water per Person
in ESCWA Region
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
ESCWA, 2009
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12. High Rate of Population Growth
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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13. Renewable - Non-Renewable
Groundwater
Renewable groundwater resources
Non-renewable groundwater
Non ground water resources
ESCWA, 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 13

14. Scarcity
Resources, Competition and
Governance
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15. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia
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16. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
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FAO AQUASTAT, 2008

17. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia
Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per
Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)
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18. Sustainability and
Non-Renewable Groundwater
• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits
• No clear “Exit Strategy”,
no replacement for non-renewable water resource
we are here, but
where are we
going next?
after
Al Zubari, 2010
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19. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
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20. Sources of Water and Use
ICBA, Barghouti, 2009
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 20

21. Climate Change and Water
in the Region
Understanding Impacts
Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities
Making Adaptation Work
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21

22. Potential Impacts
• Coupled with
excessive population growth and
rising living standards,
climate change will
exacerbate water scarcity conditions
across the Arab world.
• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation
coupled with rising temperatures will
reduce water availability.
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23. Potential Impacts
• Changes in water availability
– Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity
– Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses
• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions
– Sewage systems, storm runoff
• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk
of closure of plant intake
– Improve intake procedures
– Increase storage and transfer capacity
• Infrastructure failures
– Higher flooding intensities, frequencies
– Higher temperatures,
• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures
– Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.
• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges
– Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes
– Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning
of alternatives, before springs cease
• Seawater level rise
– Increasing groundwater salinisation
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24. Change in Length of Dry Season
Evans, J.P., 2009.
21st Century
Climate Change in the
Middle East.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24

25. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal
precipitation (mm/season) across the region
Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070
Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for the
Middle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25

26. Arab Regional Initiative: Water-related
Vulnerability to Climate Change
• ESCWA - SIDA:
Impact of CC on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability,
Arab Region
– US$ 3 million, 2010 - 2012
– Partners: ESCWA, ACSAD, WMO, SMHI
• ACSAD - IDRC:
Vulnerability Mapping
– CN$ 350,000, Project proposal under finalization
• UNESCO (Cairo Office) - Government of Egypt:
Interest expressed in conducting RCM for Arab Region
• BMZ/GIZ - LAS/AMWC:
Developing regional & national capacities for implementation of
adaptation measures to CC in Water Sector, MENA Region
– EUR 7 million, 2011 – 2016
– Partners: GIZ, AMWC, ESCWA, ACSAD, Water ministries EGY, JOR,
LEB, SYR
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27. Main Messages 1/2
• Climate Change already an additional challenge to water
management in the region
– impacting on social and economic sustainability.
• Even without climate change most countries face severe
water management challenges due to
– population and economic growth,
– unsustainable agricultural water uses, and
– naturally scarcer water resources.
• National “water security” goals for all demands:
– Reflect traditional perspectives on water resources and
management within national boundaries,
– Ignore fact that all countries are already net water importers
through food imports – virtual water,
– Need to include water as part of their national economic
sustainability strategies and planning,
– Need to address challenges of highly subsidized agricultural
production, its water demands and rural development.
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28. Main Messages 2/2
• But: No one country equals the other:
– Each country requires its own, adapted approach.
• Ground- & surface water often transboundary:
Requirement for
– willingness to cooperate,
– equitable sharing of benefits,
– regional and bilateral agreements on water.
• Recent uprisings in Arab countries offer new
opportunities to also address water governance
issues in a more sustainable manner for the long
term benefit of the countries, instead of short term
benefits of a few.
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28

29. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change
in the Middle East:
Challenges to Water Management
Berlin, Germany Ralf Klingbeil
28-29 April 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water

30. Total Actual Renewable Water
Resources per Capita in MENA
Water Stress
Water Scarcity
Extreme Water Scarcity
FAO AQUASTAT, WB 2007
1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30