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March 2013

REW.ca Greater Vancouver Real Estate
Consumer Confidence Survey - March 2013




                                                   1
Introduction


     561 telephone interviews with Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley adults, 18
      years and over;

     Margin of error: 4.1% at 95% confidence level in the most conservative
      case; 5.9% point spread required between measures of 550;

     Industry-standard, multi-stage random selection techniques employed;

     Municipal quotas ensure the population is represented according to its
      actual distribution;

     At tabulation stage, weighting adjustments bring basic characteristics of
      age, gender and region into their correct known proportions based on
      Statistics Canada population figures

     Interviewing conducted February 28th to March 12th, 2013

                                                                                  2
Confidence Limits

      A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5%
       most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below
       50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various
       incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to
       observed differences within one study.




                        n=500   n=400   n=300   n=250   n=200   n=100   n=50

            50%          4.4     4.9     5.7     6.2     6.9     9.8    13.9

            40 or 60%    4.3     4.8     5.5     6.1     6.8     9.6    13.6

            30 or 70%    4.0     4.5     5.2     5.7     6.4     9.0    12.7

            20 or 80%    3.5     3.9     4.5     5.0     5.5     7.8    11.1

            10 or 90%    2.6     2.9     3.4     3.7     4.2     5.9    8.3

            5 or 95%     1.9     2.1     2.5     2.7     3.0     4.3    6.0



       Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less
        than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only.
                                                                               3
Good Time to Sell a House/Condo in Next 3 Months




                           Mar '12            56%              33%    10%


                           Sep '12      34%               58%          9%


                           Mar '13    26%                63%          12%



                                              Yes   No   Don't know



Base:
        Total Mar’12 (n=278)
        Total Sep’12 (n=550)
        Total Mar’13 (n=561)

Q.1a) Do you think that it is a good time to sell a house or a condo in the next 3 months?


                                                                                             4
Reasons Think Good Time to Sell in Next 3 Months
                                                                      Good time to sell
                                                              Total    Yes         No
                                                              (498)   (142)       (356)
                                                                %       %           %
       Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble    43      29          49
       Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down           15      4           20
       It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale      9       1           12
       Prices are high                                         8       11           7
       Good time of year to sell                               7       20           2
       Concerned about the economy                             7       1            9
       Housing prices have stabilized                          7       10           5
       Prices will continue to rise                            6       9            5
       Interest rates are low                                  3       7            1
       It’s a seller’s market                                  2       6            -
       Prices are low/reasonable                               2       1            2
       Upcoming election                                       2       1            3
       Interest rates will go up                               1       1           <1
       Bad time of year to sell                                1        -           1
       Economy is improving                                    1       5            -
       HST/taxes concerns                                      1       1            2
       Population growth/immigration                           <1      1            -
       Foreign investors                                       <1       -          <1
       Miscellaneous                                           2        -           2
                                                                                          5
       Nothing/no comment/none                                 9       12           7
       Q.1b) Why do you say that?
Good Time to Buy a House/Condo in Next 3 Months




                         Mar '12       46%             42%        13%


                         Sep '12        50%             38%       12%


                         Mar '13         54%            34%       12%



                                          Yes   No   Don't know



Base:
        Total Mar’12 (n=278)
        Total Sep’12 (n=550)
        Total Mar’13 (n=561)

Q.2a) Do you think that it is a good time to buy a house or a condo in the next 3 months?

                                                                                            6
Reasons Think Good Time to Buy in Next 3 Months
                                                                      Good time to buy
                                                              Total    Yes        No
                                                              (495)   (307)      (188)
                                                                %       %          %
       Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble    26      23         32
       Prices are high                                         13      2          32
       Interest rates are low                                  13      20          2
       It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale      11      18          1
       Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down           9       12          3
       Prices are low/reasonable                               8       12          1
       Prices will continue to rise                            6       7           4
       Housing prices have stabilized                          5       6           3
       Concerned about the economy                             4       2           7
       Good time of year to sell                               3       4           1
       HST/taxes concerns                                      2       2           4
       Economy is improving                                    1       1           -
       Interest rates will go up                               1        -          1
       Upcoming election                                       <1      <1          1
       It’s a seller’s market                                  <1       -          1
       Miscellaneous                                           1       1           2
       Nothing/no comment/none                                 11      10         12     7
       Q.2b) Why do you say that?
Type of Property Most Interested in Buying



                                      Would buy                         76%

         Large house & property in a suburban area                34%

                             Small detached house           20%

                      Luxury condo in a city centre        12%

                     Townhouse or duplex in a city     10%



                           Keep the $1m and rent             23%

                                       Don't know     1%


Base: Total Mar’13 (n=561)

Q.3) Suppose you did not own your residence and had exactly $1 million dollars to buy the only residential
property you would have in the Lower Mainland area.
Knowing that you can live anywhere in the Lower Mainland area, and that the farther you get from the City of
Vancouver the less you pay, which one of the following types of property would you be most interested in
buying?
                                                                                                               8
Location of Property Most Interested in Buying

                              Vancouver               28%
                                Langley         12%
                                Burnaby     8%
                                 Surrey     7%
                             White Rock     7%
                        North Vancouver     6%
                              Coquitlam     6%
                             Abbotsford    4%
       Mission/Maple Ridge/ Pitt Meadows   4%
                       New Westminster     4%
                              Chilliwack   3%
                                   Delta   3%
                              Richmond     2%
                             Port Moody    2%
                        West Vancouver     1%
                          Port Coquitlam   1%
                             Don't know    3%

           Base: Total would buy a home (n=418)

                                                            9
           Q.4) Which city would that be?
Distribution of Interviews
                                                         Mar'12   Sep '12   Mar '13
                                                         (278)     (550)     (561)
                                                           %         %         %
       Home Tenure
         Rent                                             22        25        34
         Own                                              76        73        64
         Refused                                          1         1         2
       Gender
         Male                                             49        48        48
         Female                                           51        52        52
       Age
         18 to 34                                         29        29        29
         35 to 54                                         40        38        38
         55 to 64                                         14        16        16
         65 +                                             17        17        17
         Refused                                          <1         -        <1
       Region
         Vancouver                                        27        25        25
         North Shore                                      8         7         7
         Burnaby/New Westminster                          12        12        12
         Tri-cities/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows (inc.
         Coquitlam/ Port Moody/Port                       11        12        12
         Coquitlam/Anmore/Belcarra)
         Richmond/Tsawwassen/Ladner/South Delta           10        10        10
         Surrey/White Rock/North Delta/Langley/East to
                                                          24        26        26      10
         Aldergrove
         Abbotsford/Chilliwack                            10        9         9

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REW.ca Greater Vancouver Real Estate Consumer Confidence Survey - March 2013

  • 1. March 2013 REW.ca Greater Vancouver Real Estate Consumer Confidence Survey - March 2013 1
  • 2. Introduction  561 telephone interviews with Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley adults, 18 years and over;  Margin of error: 4.1% at 95% confidence level in the most conservative case; 5.9% point spread required between measures of 550;  Industry-standard, multi-stage random selection techniques employed;  Municipal quotas ensure the population is represented according to its actual distribution;  At tabulation stage, weighting adjustments bring basic characteristics of age, gender and region into their correct known proportions based on Statistics Canada population figures  Interviewing conducted February 28th to March 12th, 2013 2
  • 3. Confidence Limits  A reported finding of 50% would fall between 45.5% and 54.5% most of the time. Accuracy increases for findings above and below 50%. The table below illustrates tolerance limits for various incidence levels at several subgroup sizes. This table applies to observed differences within one study. n=500 n=400 n=300 n=250 n=200 n=100 n=50 50% 4.4 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.9 9.8 13.9 40 or 60% 4.3 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.8 9.6 13.6 30 or 70% 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 9.0 12.7 20 or 80% 3.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.5 7.8 11.1 10 or 90% 2.6 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.2 5.9 8.3 5 or 95% 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 4.3 6.0  Exercise caution when interpreting data based on samples of less than 50. Such results must be treated as directional only. 3
  • 4. Good Time to Sell a House/Condo in Next 3 Months Mar '12 56% 33% 10% Sep '12 34% 58% 9% Mar '13 26% 63% 12% Yes No Don't know Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278) Total Sep’12 (n=550) Total Mar’13 (n=561) Q.1a) Do you think that it is a good time to sell a house or a condo in the next 3 months? 4
  • 5. Reasons Think Good Time to Sell in Next 3 Months Good time to sell Total Yes No (498) (142) (356) % % % Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 43 29 49 Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 15 4 20 It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 9 1 12 Prices are high 8 11 7 Good time of year to sell 7 20 2 Concerned about the economy 7 1 9 Housing prices have stabilized 7 10 5 Prices will continue to rise 6 9 5 Interest rates are low 3 7 1 It’s a seller’s market 2 6 - Prices are low/reasonable 2 1 2 Upcoming election 2 1 3 Interest rates will go up 1 1 <1 Bad time of year to sell 1 - 1 Economy is improving 1 5 - HST/taxes concerns 1 1 2 Population growth/immigration <1 1 - Foreign investors <1 - <1 Miscellaneous 2 - 2 5 Nothing/no comment/none 9 12 7 Q.1b) Why do you say that?
  • 6. Good Time to Buy a House/Condo in Next 3 Months Mar '12 46% 42% 13% Sep '12 50% 38% 12% Mar '13 54% 34% 12% Yes No Don't know Base: Total Mar’12 (n=278) Total Sep’12 (n=550) Total Mar’13 (n=561) Q.2a) Do you think that it is a good time to buy a house or a condo in the next 3 months? 6
  • 7. Reasons Think Good Time to Buy in Next 3 Months Good time to buy Total Yes No (495) (307) (188) % % % Prices will go down/market correction/housing bubble 26 23 32 Prices are high 13 2 32 Interest rates are low 13 20 2 It’s a buyer’s market/too many properties for sale 11 18 1 Housing market is soft/sales have slowed down 9 12 3 Prices are low/reasonable 8 12 1 Prices will continue to rise 6 7 4 Housing prices have stabilized 5 6 3 Concerned about the economy 4 2 7 Good time of year to sell 3 4 1 HST/taxes concerns 2 2 4 Economy is improving 1 1 - Interest rates will go up 1 - 1 Upcoming election <1 <1 1 It’s a seller’s market <1 - 1 Miscellaneous 1 1 2 Nothing/no comment/none 11 10 12 7 Q.2b) Why do you say that?
  • 8. Type of Property Most Interested in Buying Would buy 76% Large house & property in a suburban area 34% Small detached house 20% Luxury condo in a city centre 12% Townhouse or duplex in a city 10% Keep the $1m and rent 23% Don't know 1% Base: Total Mar’13 (n=561) Q.3) Suppose you did not own your residence and had exactly $1 million dollars to buy the only residential property you would have in the Lower Mainland area. Knowing that you can live anywhere in the Lower Mainland area, and that the farther you get from the City of Vancouver the less you pay, which one of the following types of property would you be most interested in buying? 8
  • 9. Location of Property Most Interested in Buying Vancouver 28% Langley 12% Burnaby 8% Surrey 7% White Rock 7% North Vancouver 6% Coquitlam 6% Abbotsford 4% Mission/Maple Ridge/ Pitt Meadows 4% New Westminster 4% Chilliwack 3% Delta 3% Richmond 2% Port Moody 2% West Vancouver 1% Port Coquitlam 1% Don't know 3% Base: Total would buy a home (n=418) 9 Q.4) Which city would that be?
  • 10. Distribution of Interviews Mar'12 Sep '12 Mar '13 (278) (550) (561) % % % Home Tenure Rent 22 25 34 Own 76 73 64 Refused 1 1 2 Gender Male 49 48 48 Female 51 52 52 Age 18 to 34 29 29 29 35 to 54 40 38 38 55 to 64 14 16 16 65 + 17 17 17 Refused <1 - <1 Region Vancouver 27 25 25 North Shore 8 7 7 Burnaby/New Westminster 12 12 12 Tri-cities/Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows (inc. Coquitlam/ Port Moody/Port 11 12 12 Coquitlam/Anmore/Belcarra) Richmond/Tsawwassen/Ladner/South Delta 10 10 10 Surrey/White Rock/North Delta/Langley/East to 24 26 26 10 Aldergrove Abbotsford/Chilliwack 10 9 9