In alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals, Bangladesh is providing global leadership in understanding and responding to achieve safe water for all. With new insights and actionable approaches, REACH aims to collaborate with government, practitioners, enterprise, and communities to guide the policy choices to ensure interventions bene t the poor. On 12 April 2018, REACH hosted a High-Level Symposium in Dhaka, convening key stakeholders to discuss the latest results from REACH Bangladesh along with insights from Kenya and Ethiopia.

1. SAFE WATER FOR ALL
REACH HIGH-LEVEL SYMPOSIUM
Thursday 12 April 2018 | FARS Hotel, Dhaka

2. Khulna Observatory, Bangladesh
REACH High-level Symposium, Dhaka, Bangladesh
12th April, 2018
UNDERSTANDING WATER SECURITY FOR THE POOR IN
COASTAL BANGLADESH
INSIGHTS FROM THE KHULNA OBSERVATORY AND LESSONS FOR
INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION

3. • Chronic salinity
• Tidal and river flooding
• Cyclonic storms and surges
• Waterlogging
• Drinking water access and quality
Welfare index
Water security concerns of households
WATERLOGGINGEROSIONANDFLOODDRINKINGWATERSERVICES WATERLOGGINGEROSIONANDFLOODDRINKINGWATERSERVICES WATERLOGGINGEROSIONANDFLOODDRINKINGWATERSERVICES
MULTIPLE ASPECTS OF WATER INSECURITY

4. Polders constructed earlier, with less
construction time -- higher welfare
Asset poverty has sig. association with:
SW: % irrigated area, cropping intensity,
safe DW water coverage
SC: % cultivated area
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Floodprotectedarea(insqkm)
Amanproductions(metrictons)
Polderconstructionandaman productionin GreaterKhulnaRegion
Total aman production Local aman production Broadcastproduction
HYV aman production Flood protected area
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Floodprotectedarea(sqkm)
Amanproductions(metrictons)
Polderconstructionandaman productionin GreaterPatuakhaliregion
Total aman production Local aman production Broadcastproduction
HYV aman production Flood protected area
Saline prone
A HISTORY OF INTERVENTIONS, WITH A MIXED PICTURE
OF BENEFITS AND IMPACTS
• Substantial positive impacts
of polders
• However, negative
consequences in places
• What does the future look
like?

5. 0.00
50.00
100.00
1
15
2
22
27/1
3
32
34/3
36/1
5
24
Percentageoftotalarea
inundated
Polder No.
With polder Without Polder
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
1
15
2
22
27/1
3
32
34/3
36/1
5
24
Percentageoftotalarea
inundated
Polder No.
With polder Without polder
1998
2000
Evidence of avoided flood damage in river,
tidal, surge and cyclone floods
200
700
1200
1700
2200
27000
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Surplusprecipitation(mm)
Totalinundatedareas(sq.km.)
Surplus precipitation Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 4
Scenario 1: With polder, with land subsidence, no drainage
Scenario 2: With polder, with land subsidence, with drainage
Scenario 3: Without polder, with land subsidence, no drainage
Scenario 4: Without Polder, without land subsidence
Land subsidence inside polders and deteriorated drainage
has exacerbated pluvial flooding and waterlogging
HAVE POLDERS WORKED? LESSONS FROM PAST FLOODS
1988-2011

6. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
2103 households
DETAILED MAPPING OF POLDER FEATURES WATER AUDIT
2805 tubewells in 35
mouzas
UNDERSTANDING WATER SECURITY AND
LIVELIHOODS/WELFARE IN POLDER 29

7. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
No.offunctionaltubewells
Drinking STW Non-drinking STW
Drinking DTW Non-drinking DTW
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
No.offunctionaltubewells
Below 1000 ppm 1000-2000 ppm
2000-3000 ppm 3000-4000 ppm
Total DW
coverage by
TWs
Total ‘safe’ DW
coverage by
TWs
LOW COVERAGE OF ‘SAFE’ DRINKING WATER, DESPITE
EXPONENTIONAL GROWTH OF TUBE-WELLS,
SUGGESTING GREATER SDG CHALLENGES
• TWs quadrupled in 10 years, while population increased by 4%
• Only 35% of functioning TWs are used for drinking
• Deep tube-wells represent 65% of all drinking tubewells
• Household preference for shallow tube-wells for domestic uses
• Only 20% of STWs and 60% of DTWs are safe for drinking
• More areas in shallow aquifer likely to get salinised

8. km km
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Site-A Site-B Site-C Site-D
Percentageofhouseholds
Adult male Adult female
Male children Female children
AB
C
D
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Site-A Site-B Site-C Site-D
Percentageofhouseholds
1 - 2 hours
30 minutes – 1 hour
TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN QUALITY, DISTANCE AND
AFFORDABILITY DETERMINE THE CHOICE OF OPTIONS
IN HARD TO REACH AREAS: NEED COMBINATION OF
OPTIONS WITH PRIORITISATION & SEQUENCING

9. Option evaluation and sequencing
Timing, threshold, sequencing, combinations of investment decisions
Multi-objective optimisation methods
e.g. maximise total income across polders
minimise total investment
Interactions betweenhydrological, social and
economic elements
Interventions
On-going maintenance, Major
upgrading of the system, Drainage,
Drinking water interventions,
Enhanced agricultural production,
Others…
RISK-BASED MODELLING TO EVALUATE INTERVENTIONS &
SEQUENCING IN TERMS OF WATER SECURITY AND POVERTY
OUTCOMES, & TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN CONFLICTING OBJECTIVES

10. Funded by:

11. ASSESSING POLLUTION RISK AND POVERTY IMPACTS ALONG
THE TURAG-TONGI-BALU SYSTEM TO AID ACTIONS FOR SDG
DELIVERY IN DHAKA

12. Models, monitoring, novel
tools and field survey
Institutional models,
scenarios, global value
chain analysis
Models, monitoring, novel
tools and field survey
Multiple risk dimensions are being addressed.
METHODOLOGY

13. •Basic System
health indicators
tested
•Toxicity and other
tests ongoing
•Monitoring data
fed to models
(INCA)
WATER QUALITY MONITORING
• Water is unsafe for subsistent use
throughout the year for most
reaches
• Pollution is highest in areas having
high municipal waste along with
industrial waste together.
• There seems an synergy between
municipal and industrial waste on
toxicity (e.g.at Tongi Khal)
• Strong seasonal variations there
but legacy pollution affecting
recovery.
• Anthropogenic activities (e.g.,
dredging, Ijtema) contributing to
accelerated pollution of areas
downstream and compounding risk.

14. Whitehead, et al. (2018). Science of The Total
Environment, Vol. 631-632, pp. 223-232.
RIVER MODELLING WORK
INCA Integrated
Catchment
Model (INCA)
•INCA model found suitable for assessing
interventions impact without extensive data
requirement
•Flow augmentation may have less impact compared
to ETPs on ammonia pollution reduction—both fails
to achieve level below threshold (ecological)
•Combining flow augmentation and effluent
treatment together may yield better results to bring
the contamination below threshold level.

15. § Lead time to warning to protect
water supply and sanitation systems
§ DoE to regulate and take action for
ECA
NEW WATER QUALITY MONITORING SYSTEM FOR
GREATER DHAKA
REACH monitoring and model study
contributed to Task force preparing
concept note for WQMS to aid Greater
Dhaka Watershed Restoration work:
Ø20 new monitoring points and 17
automated WQ monitoring
stations
ØStakeholder information network
ØProvision for Incorporating models
and innovative tools as part of
WQMS.

16. HOUSEHOLD LEVEL INVESTIGATIONS ON WATER USE,
POLLUTION IMPACT & POVERTY INTERACTIONS
Quantitative survey: conducted in 12 locations In 1826 HHs on the
banks of Tongi Khal & Turag River from Dec. 2017-Feb. 2018
Qualitative work: Health, gender and water use behaviour
• The dirty river water is the key environmental
concern in survey areas (58% respondents
reported as major concern).
• Over 25% of the surveyed households are
exposed to unsafe water for various purposes.
• Poverty incidence is high among households
exposed to unsafe water with double the
expenditure on health compared to their
counterfactual group.
• Water use behaviour indicated gendered
difference in exposure to polluted river water with
strong seasonality in river water use behaviour
and lack of awareness.

17. • Overhaul of current monitoring system is a necessity to support SDG goals [SDG-6,
SDG-3 (3.4, 3.9, 3.d), SDG-11 (11.6), SDG-15 (15.5)]
– It can support detail scenario analysis and aid understandings of river water
quality-poverty-economic growth dynamics and
– ensure value for money in saving investments
• Multiple intervention strategies, e.g., such as combining both improved effluent
treatment and flow augmentation, may be more successful for pollution reduction
compared to only regulatory or engineering solutions.
• Investment in awareness along with pollution abatement would proliferate to
poverty reduction, health and well-being that will benefit the poor ensuring inclusive
sustained growth.
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

18. Funded by:

19. Matlab Observatory, Chandpur District, Bangladesh
REACH High-level Symposium, Dhaka, Bangladesh | 12th April, 2018
HOW TO TRANSITION FROM ‘ACCESS’ TO ‘SAFELY AND
SUSTAINABLY MANAGED’ DRINKING WATER SERVICES
FOR SDG DELIVERY IN BANGLADESH

20. Number of people per safe and
functioning public water points
2016 GoB administrative data
Observed arsenic concentrations
2000 GoB/BGS national water point
testing
Proportion of population drinking water with
arsenic exceeding GoB Standard
2011 Household Survey Data (MICS)
Data: BBS/UNICEF MICS 2011-2013
Highest environmental risks in areas with lowest safe and functioning
water points – monitoring can support national progress to SDG
delivery

21. Private investment in shallow tubewells dramatically increasing ‘access’,
- water quality testing, marking and monitoring has not kept pace
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Piped
to…
Deep
tubew
ell
Shallow
…
Surface
water
Other
Lower household welfare, higher shallow
tubewell use (REACH Matlab survey,
n=2,000, 2017)
Lowest 2nd 3rd Highest

22. High microbiological contamination (CFU/100ml) in stored water in all
welfare groups - diarrhoea incidence higher for females
Poor 2 3 4 Rich
Male
40%
Female
60%
RATE OF DIARRHOEA BY SEX
(N=1,000 HH; OBS = 30,843)

23. Data Loggers – remote surveillance to support national monitoring
- tracks performance, informs management models, guides
investment/planning

24. Drinking water risks and institutional design
- how to transition from ‘access’ to ‘safely and sustainably managed’?
- need to allocate risks (finance, O&M) by sharing and monitoring
responsibilities between water users, asset managers and government
SDG indicators
Indicative Risks by Infrastructure
Shallow
Tubewell
Deep
Tubewell
Piped
Network
Access Low High Moderate
Affordability Low Moderate High
Reliability Low Moderate High
Water quality High Low Moderate

25. Funded by:

26. HYDRO-CLIMATIC RISKS AND RIVER BASIN
DEVELOPMENT IN ETHIOPIA
Dr. Katrina Charles, University of Oxford

27. Growing urban
centres with
increasing
water demand Industrial parks, including
garment industry
Hydropower
production
Irrigation
expansion &
changing
livelihoods
Pastoralist
livelihoods
Water quality
threats from saline
lake
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT NEEDS TO CONSIDER
HETEROGENOUS USER POPULATIONS

28. Vivid/REACH 2016

29. Appropriate decision making metrics are being explored such as
consecutive dry seasons
ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGY AND CLIMATE PROVIDES
DATA ON HAZARDS

30. Macroeconomic impacts by sector for three climate scenarios as
deviations from baseline GCP
Borgomeo et al 2017
HYDRO-CLIMATIC VARIABILITY IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC
PRODUCTIVITY IN THE BASIN

31. Estimates of 5-year cumulative impacts on household incomes
Borgomeo et al., 2018
VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY VARIES
SPATIALLY AND BY WEALTH CLASS

32. • Hydro-climatic metrics can be developed based on
disaggregated user needs to support decisions over
water resource management;
• Ethiopia is looking to learn from policies and activities
developed by the Government of Bangladesh to
minimise pollution risks from the garment industry;
Thanks to Dr. Ellen Dyer, Dr. Catherine Grasham, Dr. Feyera Hirpa and Dr. Meron Teferi Taye
POLICY IMPLICATIONS

33. Funded by:

34. HYDROCLIMATIC RISKS, GROUNDWATER, AND
URBAN POVERTY IN TURKANA
Prof Dan Olago and Dr Maggie Opondo, University of Nairobi

35. LODWAR: BACKGOUND
• 100% dependent on groundwater for
town supplies;
• Inadequate urban water supply
infrastructure;
• Increasing demand in high poverty level
context;

36. • Low rainfall, high variability, high unpredictability;
• Future climate model predictions and trends from historical records are divergent;
• Land degradation;
• Parameters for sustainable groundwater use unknown;
• Growth of demand for water supply unprecedented and unmet;
• Lack of biophysical, socio-economic and gender disaggregated data;
WATER SECURITY CHALLENGES

37. • The Second National Water Master Plan (2012) was not incorporated in
the County Integrated Development Plans (CIDPs) and Vision 2030;
• The New Water Act 2016 does not include special considerations of
vulnerable groups;
• The County Integrated Development Plans hardly mention “groundwater”,
but plan on drilling several boreholes for water supply;
• Water resources traverse multiple jurisdictions with different priorities;
• There is inadequate financing and low level of knowledge and data on
hydroclimatic variability, ecological sustainability, groundwater resources;
• Current water supply models are not profitable;
THE GOVERNANCE DILEMMA

38. FROM SCIENCE TO DECISION MAKING
• Hydro-climatic studies;
• Resource risk assessments
• Aquifer characterisation
• Water supply optimisation
• Engagement with
stakeholders in Lodwar
(county government,
Catholic Diocese,
LOWASCO, NDMA, UNICEF
and more);
• User participation;
• Resource risk reduction;
• Sufficient, efficient,
inclusive, equitable &
affordable supply;
• Capacities enhanced;
• Appropriate plans and
strategies implemented

39. Funded by: