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QNBFS Daily Market Report February 14, 2019
1. Page 1 of 7
QSE Intra-Day Movement
Qatar Commentary
The QE Index declined 1.2% to close at 10,180.7. Losses were led by the Real Estate
and Industrials indices, falling 3.6% and 1.5%, respectively. Top losers were Qatar
National Cement Company and Ezdan Holding Group, falling 10.0% and 4.8%,
respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance
Company gained 7.5%, while Ahli Bank was up 3.3%.
GCC Commentary
Saudi Arabia: The TASI Index rose 0.2% to close at 8,617.2. Gains were led by the
Telecommunication Services and Food & Beverages indices, rising 1.4% and 0.8%,
respectively. Al-Ahlia Ins. rose 4.1%, while Nat. Industrialization Co. was up 3.6%.
Dubai: The DFM Index gained 0.3% to close at 2,492.6. The Consumer Staples and
Discretionary and Insurance indices rose 2.9% each. Shuaa Capital rose 6.8%, while
Islamic Arab Insurance Company was up 6.2%.
Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose marginally to close at 5,026.7. The Real
Estate index gained 3.1%, while the Energy index rose 2.5%. Abu Dhabi National
Energy Company gained 6.6%, while Al Dar Properties was up 3.5%.
Kuwait: The KSE Index rose 0.2% to close at 4,804.6. The Oil & Gas index gained
1.3%, while the other indices remained flat or ended in the red. Al Mudon Intl. Real
Estate Co. gained 5.7%, while Kuwait Financial Centre was up 5.3%.
Oman: The MSM Index fell 0.2% to close at 4,114.8. Losses were led by the Services
and Financial indices, falling 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Dhofar Cattle Feed fell
10.0%, while Sembcorp Salalah was down 4.2%.
Bahrain: The BHB Index fell 1.1% to close at 1,374.1. The Industrial index declined
9.6%, while the Service index fell 0.9%. Aluminium Bahrain declined 9.8%, while
Bahrain Cinema Company was down 5.6%.
QSE Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar General Ins. & Reins. Co. 42.99 7.5 0.9 (4.2)
Ahli Bank 31.00 3.3 1.1 10.7
Vodafone Qatar 8.20 2.5 3,654.0 5.0
The Commercial Bank 41.25 2.3 222.8 4.7
Doha Insurance Group 12.33 2.1 5.4 (5.8)
QSE Top Volume Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Vodafone Qatar 8.20 2.5 3,654.0 5.0
Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing 12.02 (0.5) 1,235.9 (10.0)
Masraf Al Rayan 38.50 (2.8) 506.8 (7.6)
QNB Group 179.10 (1.0) 456.3 (8.2)
Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 15.60 (0.6) 437.6 3.8
Market Indicators 13 Feb 19 11 Feb 19 %Chg.
Value Traded (QR mn) 306.7 201.2 52.5
Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 581,043.9 589,250.7 (1.4)
Volume (mn) 9.7 5.9 63.8
Number of Transactions 7,014 4,939 42.0
Companies Traded 46 46 0.0
Market Breadth 13:27 13:31 –
Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E
Total Return 18,023.39 (1.2) (2.6) (0.7) 14.4
All Share Index 3,098.91 (1.4) (2.9) 0.6 15.2
Banks 3,694.14 (1.4) (2.9) (3.6) 13.7
Industrials 3,253.37 (1.5) (3.6) 1.2 15.0
Transportation 2,243.54 1.1 0.0 8.9 13.0
Real Estate 2,392.49 (3.6) (4.5) 9.4 21.4
Insurance 3,001.49 1.6 (0.6) (0.2) 16.7
Telecoms 972.69 (0.1) (1.9) (1.5) 21.3
Consumer 7,142.87 (0.8) (0.7) 5.8 14.6
Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,914.90 (1.4) (2.5) 0.8 14.5
GCC Top Gainers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Comm. Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.55 3.8 8.0 10.0
Nat. Industrialization Co Saudi Arabia 16.50 3.6 7,666.8 9.1
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi 1.48 3.5 10,336.1 (7.5)
Banque Saudi Fransi Saudi Arabia 38.10 3.0 867.9 21.3
GFH Financial Group Dubai 0.92 2.8 32,629.1 2.3
GCC Top Losers
##
Exchange Close
#
1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Aluminium Bahrain Bahrain 0.40 (9.8) 301.0 (32.7)
Sembcorp Salalah Power. Oman 0.16 (4.2) 15.0 (9.0)
DP World Dubai 15.25 (3.5) 218.2 (10.8)
Qurain Petrochemical Ind. Kuwait 0.37 (2.9) 767.5 3.9
Masraf Al Rayan Qatar 38.50 (2.8) 506.8 (7.6)
Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the S&P GCC
Composite Large Mid Cap Index)
QSE Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD%
Qatar National Cement Company 63.77 (10.0) 89.7 7.2
Ezdan Holding Group 15.04 (4.8) 243.2 15.9
Zad Holding Company 120.00 (4.0) 1.1 15.4
Qatari German Co for Med. Dev. 6.64 (3.8) 36.6 17.3
Masraf Al Rayan 38.50 (2.8) 506.8 (7.6)
QSE Top Value Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD%
QNB Group 179.10 (1.0) 82,410.5 (8.2)
Vodafone Qatar 8.20 2.5 30,330.5 5.0
Qatar Islamic Bank 152.01 (2.6) 30,043.2 0.0
Industries Qatar 135.00 (2.2) 26,800.7 1.0
Masraf Al Rayan 38.50 (2.8) 19,908.7 (7.6)
Source: Bloomberg (* in QR)
Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD%
Exch. Val. Traded
($ mn)
Exchange Mkt.
Cap. ($ mn)
P/E** P/B**
Dividend
Yield
Qatar* 10,180.69 (1.2) (3.1) (5.0) (1.1) 83.94 159,612.8 14.4 1.5 4.3
Dubai 2,492.58 0.3 (2.0) (2.9) (1.5) 56.44 91,550.6 7.6 0.9 5.6
Abu Dhabi 5,026.66 0.0 (1.7) (0.4) 2.3 73.22 137,817.5 13.5 1.4 4.8
Saudi Arabia 8,617.22 0.2 0.1 0.7 10.1 711.31 544,721.1 18.3 1.9 3.3
Kuwait 4,804.61 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.4 90.78 33,113.0 16.5 0.8 4.3
Oman 4,114.80 (0.2) (0.9) (1.2) (4.8) 1.59 17,929.7 8.4 0.8 6.3
Bahrain 1,374.06 (1.1) (3.1) (1.2) 2.8 3.67 20,991.2 9.3 0.9 5.9
Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Stock Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Market and Dubai Financial Market (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any)
10,150
10,200
10,250
10,300
10,350
10,400
9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
2. Page 2 of 7
Qatar Market Commentary
The QE Index declined 1.2% to close at 10,180.7. The Real Estate and
Industrials indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling
pressure from non-Qatari shareholders despite buying support from
Qatari and GCC shareholders.
Qatar National Cement Company and Ezdan Holding Group were the top
losers, falling 10.0% and 4.8%, respectively. Among the top gainers,
Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Company gained 7.5%, while
Ahli Bank was up 3.3%.
Volume of shares traded on Wednesday rose by 63.8% to 9.7mn from
5.9mn on Tuesday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average
of 9.2mn, volume for the day was 4.7% higher. Vodafone Qatar and
Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company were the most active stocks,
contributing 37.8% and 12.8% to the total volume, respectively.
Source: Qatar Stock Exchange (* as a % of traded value)
Earnings Releases, Global Economic Data and Earnings Calendar
Earnings Releases
Company Market Currency
Revenue (mn)
4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Operating Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Net Profit
(mn) 4Q2018
% Change
YoY
Saudi International Petrochemical Saudi Arabia SR 5,035.8 12.9% 1,095.8 17.2% 583.0 33.3%
Ekttitab Holding Co. Kuwait KD 288.5 -46.8% -73.3 N/A -586.2 N/A
Awtad Dubai AED – – – – -0.6 N/A
Emirates Refreshments Dubai AED 48.4 -11.3% -8.2 N/A -7.5 N/A
Arabtec Holding Dubai AED 9,853.0 7.8% – – 256.0 108.1%
Dubai Nat. Ins. & Reinsurance Dubai AED 351.0 8.5% – – 52.7 5.2%
Emaar Malls Dubai AED 4,445.9 22.5% 2,387.0 4.2% 2,229.9 6.9%
Marka Dubai AED 76.3 -23.4% -52.4 N/A -76.9 N/A
Al Firdous Holdings Dubai AED 1.8 -31.5% -3.4 N/A -5.1 N/A
International Holdings Company Abu Dhabi AED 570.2 35.4% 1.0 -93.0% 21.8 -31.1%
Abu Dhabi National Insurance Co. Abu Dhabi AED 2,909.5 10.1% – – 235.6 3.7%
Foodco Holding Abu Dhabi AED 389.8 21.1% – – 64.7 -2.5%
Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi AED 6,286.5 1.7% – – 1,855.8 -7.0%
Emirates Telecom Group Company Abu Dhabi AED 52,388.0 1.5% 12,563.0 10.2% 8,615.0 2.4%
Emirates Insurance Abu Dhabi AED 1,043.3 -3.2% – – 114.1 4.1%
Bahrain Family Leisure Bahrain BHD 1.4 10.2% 0.1 -41.3% -1.0 N/A
Bahrain Car Parks Company Bahrain BHD 1.2 9.7% 0.7 -6.9% 0.7 -9.7%
Bahrain Flour Mills Company Bahrain BHD 7.1 1.5% – – 1.2 -76.1%
Bahrain Duty Free Shop Complex Bahrain BHD 36.4 13.8% -0.7 N/A 7.5 5.3%
Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM, TASI, BHB. (*Financials for FY2018)
Global Economic Data
Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous
02/13 US Mortgage Bankers Association MBA Mortgage Applications 8-February -3.7% – -2.5%
02/13 US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI MoM January 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
02/13 US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI YoY January 1.6% 1.5% 1.9%
02/13 US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Core Index SA January 260.7 260.6 260.1
02/13 US Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Index NSA January 251.7 251.6 251.2
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics CPI MoM January -0.8% -0.7% 0.2%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics CPI YoY January 1.8% 1.9% 2.1%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics CPI Core YoY January 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Input NSA MoM January -0.1% 0.2% -1.6%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Input NSA YoY January 2.9% 3.8% 3.2%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Output NSA MoM January 0.0% 0.0% -0.3%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Output NSA YoY January 2.1% 2.2% 2.4%
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Output Core NSA MoM January 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR)
Qatari Individuals 32.90% 29.86% 9,305,032.99
Qatari Institutions 16.30% 9.58% 20,611,688.74
Qatari 49.20% 39.44% 29,916,721.73
GCC Individuals 0.27% 0.54% (826,863.39)
GCC Institutions 4.17% 2.43% 5,347,079.99
GCC 4.44% 2.97% 4,520,216.60
Non-Qatari Individuals 8.46% 8.33% 412,277.42
Non-Qatari Institutions 37.90% 49.27% (34,849,215.75)
Non-Qatari 46.36% 57.60% (34,436,938.33)
3. Page 3 of 7
Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous
02/13 UK UK Office for National Statistics PPI Output Core NSA YoY January 2.4% 2.3% 2.4%
02/13 EU Eurostat Industrial Production SA MoM December -0.9% -0.4% -1.7%
02/13 EU Eurostat Industrial Production WDA YoY December -4.2% -3.3% -3.0%
02/13 Japan Bank of Japan PPI YoY January 0.6% 1.0% 1.5%
02/13 Japan Bank of Japan PPI MoM January -0.6% -0.2% -0.6%
Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted)
Earnings Calendar
Tickers Company Name Date of reporting 4Q2018 results No. of days remaining Status
MPHC Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company 14-Feb-19 0 Due
QAMC Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Company 20-Feb-19 6 Due
QOIS Qatar Oman Investment Company 20-Feb-19 6 Due
MERS Al Meera Consumer Goods Company 24-Feb-19 10 Due
QFLS Qatar Fuel Company 25-Feb-19 11 Due
BRES Barwa Real Estate Company 25-Feb-19 11 Due
QISI The Group Islamic Insurance Company 25-Feb-19 11 Due
QNNS Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 25-Feb-19 11 Due
QCFS Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Company 26-Feb-19 12 Due
MCCS Mannai Corporation 26-Feb-19 12 Due
AHCS Aamal Company 27-Feb-19 13 Due
SIIS Salam International Investment Limited 6-Mar-19 20 Due
Source: QSE
News
Qatar
GISS reports net loss of QR137.7mn in 4Q2018 driven by
impairments; no dividend declared as was the case in 2017 –
Gulf International Services (GISS) reported net loss of
QR137.7mn in 4Q2018 as compared to net profit of QR62.8mn in
4Q2017, and net profit of QR5.2mn in 3Q2018. We had
estimated net profit of QR24.8mn in 4Q2018 but had warned
that rig impairment(s) were possible and could wipe out the
profits for the year and cancel the dividends. This is exactly
what happened; if we exclude QR159mn in expenses, the
majority of which is the write-off of the Al-Doha rig (QR113mn)
and write-off of PP&E (another QR37mn), adjusted net income
would have been QR21.7mn vs. our estimate of QR24.8mn. The
company's revenue came in at QR558.1mn in 4Q2018, which
represents an increase of 5.9% YoY. However, on QoQ basis,
revenue fell 14.2%. Loss per share amounted to QR0.53 in
FY2018 as compared to earnings per share of QR0.46 in FY2017.
GISS recorded QR2.5bn in revenue and an EBITDA of QR746mn
in FY2018. The group’s revenue for the year is marginally up by
QR0.1bn or 5% over the last year. All segments, except the
catering segment, reported growth over the previous year. The
aviation segment witnessed a marginal growth versus the
previous year. Ex-Qatar aviation revenue and revenue from
other ancillary services grew moderately. The insurance
segment was able to regain some of the previously lost
businesses in addition to capturing new businesses in both the
energy and medical lines of business, resulting in a significant
increase in revenue. The catering segment witnessed a
reduction on last year, primarily due to demobilization of some
of the projects and reduced occupancy in the camps. Drilling
segment witnessed a marginal growth on the previous year, the
segment benefited from the deployment of some of the assets
that were not previously contracted and recovery in the crude
oil price. The reported EBITDA is also up over the last year. An
increase in the revenue and reduction in the general and
administrative expenses resulted in an increase in EBITDA from
last year. Net profit, on the other hand, decreased on last year,
and the reported net loss for 2018 was QR98.3mn. This loss was
on account of higher finance charges and one-off expenses
relating to the impairment of assets in the drilling segment.
(QNB FS Research, Company financials, Peninsula Qatar)
Vodafone Qatar to hold its AGM and EGM on March 4 –
Vodafone Qatar‘s board of directors invited its shareholders to
attend Annual General Assembly (AGM) and Extraordinary
General Assembly Meeting (EGM) of the company, which will
be held on March 4, 2019. In case of lack of quorum, a second
meeting will be held on March 12, 2019. (QSE)
DOHI reports net profit of ~QR25mn in 4Q2018 – Doha
Insurance Group's (DOHI) net profit rose ~230% YoY and from
QR0.5mn as of 3Q2018 to ~QR25mn in 4Q2018. In FY2018,
DOHI reported net profit of QR60mn as compared to net profit
of QR42.2mn in FY2017. EPS increased to QR1.21 in FY2018
from QR0.84 in FY2017. The board of directors has decided to
submit a proposal for distribution of cash dividends equal to 8%
of the share par value i.e. QR0.80 for each share to the
company’s upcoming Annual General Assembly meeting. (QSE)
ORDS' bottom line rises ~40% YoY and ~17% QoQ in 4Q2018 –
Ooredoo's (ORDS) net profit rose ~40% YoY (+~17% QoQ) to
~QR473mn in 4Q2018. The company's revenue came in at
~QR7,152mn in 4Q2018, which represents a decrease of ~12%
YoY (~-5% QoQ). EPS decreased to QR4.89 in FY2018 from
QR5.92 in FY2017. In FY2018, ORDS posted net profit of nearly
QR1.6bn and revenue of QR29.9bn. Most of ORDS’ operations
delivered a ‘solid performance’ in 2018. However, group results
were significantly impacted by the market situation in
4. Page 4 of 7
Indonesia following the new SIM card registration regulation,
challenging market conditions in Algeria and the overall foreign
exchange (FX) weakness in emerging markets. The 2018
revenue of QR29.9bn was driven by ‘strong’ contributions from
Oman and Kuwait. Group revenue before the FX impact
decreased by 6%, while reported revenue decreased by 8% YoY.
The fourth quarter (4Q2018) included an adjustment of
previous quarters related to the impact of IFRS 15 (a new
financial reporting standard on revenue recognition). Excluding
this impact 4Q2018 revenue declined by 9% instead of the
reported 12%. In FY2018, Group EBITDA was QR12.2bn with a
corresponding EBITDA margin of 41% (vs. QR13.6bn and 42%,
respectively, in FY2017). Group EBITDA decreased by almost
11% YoY, mainly due to lower revenues. Excluding foreign
exchange impact, EBITDA decreased by 9% YoY. Increased
monetization of data business, with significant data growth
coming from consumer and enterprise customers saw data
revenue increasing to 47% of group revenue. Revenue from
data contributed QR14.2bn. Commenting on the results, ORDS’
Chairman, Sheikh Abdulla bin Mohamed bin Saud Al-Thani
said, “Across emerging markets, new digital technologies offer
the chance for people and businesses to achieve their full
potential and realize new opportunities. Through our robust and
clear strategy, ORDS is well-positioned to support the
introduction and sustain the development of these new
technologies across all our markets, as demonstrated through
our business results for 2018.” The board of directors proposed a
cash dividend of QR2.5 per share for 2018. (QSE, Company
financials, Gulf-Times.com)
MSCI announces quarterly index review for QSE stocks – MSCI
Inc. announced the results of the February 11, 2019 Quarterly
Index Review with no change on QSE stocks. (QSE)
Qatar Petroleum signs five-year light naphtha sales agreement
with Marubeni – Qatar Petroleum has concluded a five-year
sales agreement to supply Japan’s Marubeni Corporation
(Marubeni) an annual total of 200,000 tons of light naphtha
starting from January 2019. The deal was executed for and on
behalf of Qatar Petroleum for the Sale of Petroleum Products
Company (QPSPP). The agreement is the third such one to be
concluded with Marubeni since both parties started their
naphtha business together over three decades ago. The
previous two long-term naphtha sales agreements with
Marubeni were concluded in 2018. HE the Minister of State for
Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, also President and CEO
of Qatar Petroleum said, “We are pleased to sign the third
naphtha long-term sales agreement with Marubeni Corporation.
This agreement does not just strengthen our relations with
Marubeni, but also reflects our strengthened ability to produce
and export naphtha to the Asian market safely and reliably.”
(Gulf-Times.com)
Al-Baker welcomes Doha Declaration that calls for 'serious
review' of existing aviation regulatory framework – Qatar
Airways’ CEO, HE Akbar Al-Baker welcomed the publication of
‘Doha Declaration,’ a manifesto that calls for a serious review of
the existing aviation regulatory framework. The Doha
Declaration, which was announced at the conclusion of the
CAPA Qatar Aviation, Aeropolitical and Regulatory Summit
held in Doha, comes 75 years after the historic Chicago
Convention, which established the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) as well as a set of global rules for airspace,
air safety and air travel. Commenting on the declaration, Al-
Baker said, “Qatar Airways wholeheartedly endorses the Doha
Declaration and calls on airlines all over the world to join us in
supporting it.” The declaration follows the recent
announcement that Qatar and the European Union have
concluded their negotiations for a landmark Comprehensive Air
Transport Agreement. (Gulf-Times.com)
List of 'excise tax goods' not final, says GTA official – The list of
consumer products that were chosen by the government for
levying excise tax last month is 'not final' even as some goods
could either be added or removed from the list, an official of the
General Tax Authority (GTA) said at a seminar on excise tax
organized by Qatar Chamber. On January 1, Qatar officially
imposed excise taxes on carbonated drinks (50% rate) and
tobacco products and energy drinks (100%), among other items
that fall under ‘excise goods’ to limit consumption of several
items, while raising government funds for public services. A
statement from Qatar Chamber quoted GTA’s Head of Indirect
Tax, Hamad Mohamed Al-Attiyah as saying that “the list of
goods of (excise) tax is not final; other goods can be added or
existing goods can be removed.” GTA’s Indirect Tax Expert,
Sami Nasr said the main intent of imposing excise tax is to
reduce consumption of such goods, while also raising revenues
for the government. While the amount of revenue generated
from the newly imposed tax is yet to be gauged, Nasr said, the
new tax will be vital in reducing government’s spending on
healthcare services in the country. (Gulf-Times.com, Qatar
Tribune)
International
IEA: Global oil supply to swamp demand in 2019 despite output
cuts – The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb
fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the
group’s production cuts and US sanctions on Venezuela and
Iran, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated. The IEA
left its demand growth forecast for 2019 unchanged from its
last report in January at 1.4mn barrels per day. “It is supported
by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in
China and the US. Slowing economic growth will, however,
limit any upside,” the agency stated. The IEA raised its
estimate of growth in crude supply from outside the OPEC to
1.8mn bpd in 2019, from 1.6mn bpd previously. The agency also
lowered its forecast for demand for OPEC crude, production of
which the group has pledged to cut by 800,000 bpd this year as
part of an agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC
producers such as Oman and Kazakhstan. The call on OPEC
crude is now forecast at 30.7mn bpd in 2019, down from the
IEA’s last estimate of 31.6mn bpd in January. (Reuters)
Lower gasoline prices restrain US consumer inflation – US
consumer prices were unchanged for a third straight month in
January, leading to the smallest annual increase in inflation in
more than one-and-a-half years, which could allow the Federal
Reserve to hold interest rates steady for a while. The Labor
Department’s report supported the Fed’s recent description of
price pressures being muted. In a policy statement last month,
the US central bank kept rates unchanged, pledged to be patient
before tightening monetary policy further and discarded
5. Page 5 of 7
promises of further gradual increases in borrowing costs. The
Consumer Price Index (CPI) last month was held down by
cheaper gasoline, which offset increases in the cost of food,
rent, healthcare, recreation, apparel, motor vehicles and
household furnishings. In the 12 months through January, the
CPI rose 1.6%, the smallest gain since June 2017. The CPI
increased 1.9% on a YoY basis in December. (Reuters)
US posts another budget deficit as tax revenues sag – The US
federal government ran a $14bn budget deficit in December as
revenues sagged following last year’s tax cuts even as the
economy appeared strong, Treasury Department data showed.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected $11bn deficit for the
month and the gap was the latest sign of deterioration in the
government’s fiscal position. A strong US job market has
appeared to power economic growth this year, an economic
setting that tends to help fiscal revenues. Economists suspect
some of the economic strength draws from tax cuts that came
into effect at the beginning of 2018. However Washington’s
accounts have run $319bn into the red since the fiscal year
began in October, compared to $225bn deficit over the same
period a year earlier. (Reuters)
UK’s inflation hits two-year low on falling energy costs –
British annual inflation hit a two-year low point in January,
undershooting the Bank of England’s 2.0% target on falling oil
and other energy costs, official data showed. The Consumer
Price Index 12-month rate hit 1.8% last month, down from 2.1%
in December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) stated.
That marked the first time since January 2017 that the rate has
fallen underneath the Bank of England’s official 2.0% target
level. Analysts had forecast a drop to 1.9%. Inflation was pulled
lower by a decline in electricity, gas and motor fuel prices
between December and January. “The fall in inflation is due
mainly to cheaper gas, electricity and petrol, partly offset by
rising ferry ticket prices and air fares falling more slowly than
this time last year,” ONS inflation Head, Mike Hardie said.
(Qatar Tribune)
Eurozone’s industrial production falls more than expected in
December – Eurozone’s industrial production fell more than
expected in December, official estimates showed, pulled down
by a drop in the output of capital goods, used for investment.
The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat stated
industrial output in the 19-country currency union fell 0.9%
MoM for 4.2% YoY decline. Economists polled by Reuters had
expected 0.4% monthly fall and 3.2 YoY decline. Eurostat stated
the production of capital goods, like machinery, fell by 1.5% in
December against November and year on year the fall was
5.5%, accelerating from 4.4% in November. The fall in
industrial production and the decline in the output of capital
goods underline the trend of slowing economic growth in the
Eurozone where the European Commission expects growth to
decelerate to 1.3% this year from 1.9% in 2018. (Reuters)
Japan’s fourth-quarter GDP rebounds but trade frictions remain
a concern – Japan’s economy expanded in the fourth quarter as
business and consumer spending recovered from natural
disasters, however global trade protectionism remained a
concern for the country. The 1.4% annualized expansion in
October-December matched the median estimate in a Reuters
poll. It followed a revised 2.6% annualized contraction in July-
September as floods and an earthquake temporarily halted
production. The data also showed real exports rose 0.9% in
October-December from the previous quarter, which was the
fastest gain in a year. Despite the increase in shipments, some
economists remain concerned that exports will weaken this
year if the US and China do not resolve their trade dispute.
(Reuters)
China’s January trade beats forecasts; exports up 9.1%, imports
dip 1.5% – China’s January Dollar-denominated exports rose
9.1% from a year earlier, while imports dropped 1.5%, both
beating analysts’ expectations, official data showed. That left
the country with a trade surplus of $39.16bn for the month, the
General Administration of Customs stated. Analysts polled by
Reuters had expected both exports and imports to fall for a
second straight month, but cautioned the trend could be
distorted by the timing of the long Lunar New Year holidays,
which fell in early February this year. Exports had been forecast
to decline 3.2%, after a 4.4% drop in December. Imports were
expected to have dropped 10%, after declining 7.6% in the
preceding month. Analysts were also expecting China’s trade
surplus to have narrowed in January to $33.5bn from $57.06bn
in December. (Reuters)
China considering measures to adjust lending rates for
companies – China is considering measures to drive
adjustments in financial institutions’ lending rates for
companies to improve credit flow into the economy, the official
English-language China Daily reported, citing a central bank
official. Sun Guofeng, Head of the People’s Bank of China’s
monetary policy department, said that despite rising
expectations of a central bank interest rate cut, it is more
urgent to allow financial markets, rather than the People's Bank
of China to determine lending rates. Policymakers should assess
domestic macroeconomic conditions to reduce financing costs
before pursuing more interest rate reform. (Reuters)
Regional
Saudi Arabia's PIF will raise stake in ACWA Power, to expand
overseas – Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) plans
to increase its stake in ACWA Power to 40% from 25% and is
looking to invest in electric vehicles and solar power, its
Managing Director, Yasir al-Rumayyan said. The sovereign
fund also plans to boost its staff to 700 by the end of the year
from 450 now, and is aiming to open offices in London and in
the US - initially in New York and then in San Francisco, he
said. “We will be the largest investor in renewable energy,” he
said. “Oil, we think, is very important to us, we don’t want to
waste oil only on transportation.” The fund has made
substantial commitments to other green projects, including
renewables and recycling, and to technology companies, such
as a $45bn agreement to invest in a technology fund led by
Japan’s SoftBank Group Corp. It also owns stakes in electric car
makers Tesla and Lucid Motors. (Reuters)
Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund held 8.3mn shares of Tesla at the
year-end – Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund (PIF) has
confirmed in a 13F filing with the Securities and Exchange
Commission that it held 8.3mn shares of Tesla as of December
31, 2018. (Bloomberg)
Tabreed gets 30-year India concession in first foray outside the
GCC – National Central Cooling Co. (Tabreed) has won a 30-year
6. Page 6 of 7
concession to build, own, operate and transfer a district cooling
system in India, its first plant outside the Gulf region. “We see
this as an opportunity to establish an initial presence which will
be the foundation for further growth,” Tabreed’s Chairman,
Khaled Al Qubaisi said. (Bloomberg)
Mubadala's venture capital unit will launch $400mn European
fund – Mubadala Ventures, the venture capital arm of Abu
Dhabi’s state-owned Mubadala Investment Company, plans to
launch a $400mn European fund this year to focus on the
technology sector, a company executive said. The venture
capital unit is also working with international venture capital
funds to invest in Abu Dhabi, Head of Mubadala Ventures,
Ibrahim Ajami said. Mubadala’s venture capital arm is
replicating its US strategy in Europe by launching a $400mn
Ventures Fund as well as a fund of funds this year. The US-
based Ventures Fund, announced in 2017, is 30% deployed in
US firms in sectors such as healthcare, fintech, cyber security
and others, he said. Most investments are in Silicon Valley
companies but Mubadala is looking at New York companies too.
“We are building the same business in Europe, focused on tech
funds and companies,” he told reporters. “We will also be
working with international venture funds, inviting them to
come to Abu Dhabi to play a role here.” Mubadala plans to
create a start-up ecosystem in Abu Dhabi and help start-ups in
areas such as blockchain, healthcare, food delivery and
automotive mobility. (Reuters)
UAB posts 345.3% YoY rise in net profit to AED77.2mn in
FY2018 – United Arab Bank (UAB) recorded net profit of
AED77.2mn in FY2018, an increase of 345.3% YoY. Net
operating profit rose 4.6% YoY to AED405.6mn in FY2018. Total
assets stood at AED20.5bn at the end of December 31, 2018 as
compared to AED20.7bn at the end of December 31, 2017. EPS
came in at AED0.04 in FY2018 as compared to AED0.01 in
FY2017. (ADX)
Dana Gas may sell Iraqi gas to Turkish buyers – UAE-based
Dana Gas plans to more than double its gas output in Iraq and
may sell a portion of the increased volumes in Turkey, CEO,
Patrick Allman-Ward said. The company and its partner Pearl
Petroleum will raise output in Iraq by 500mn cf/d over the next
3 years from 400mn cf/d. The half of extra gas will be used in
Iraqi Kurdistan power stations; rest can be sold locally or
exported. Dana Gas prefers to export via a pipeline to be
operated by Rosneft. A fallback option is to build its own link
from Erbil to Turkey, he said. Contractors, export credit
agencies, gas supply payments and/or a bond issued by Pearl
Petroleum will fund the Iraqi projects, he added. (Bloomberg)
Kuwait Finance House will start Ahli United Bank merger due-
diligence – Kuwait Finance House (KFH) plans to start due
diligence to buy Bahrain’s Ahli United Bank, a potential
combination that will create the Gulf’s sixth-biggest lender
with $92bn in assets. KFH received the central bank’s initial
approval to commence the process, according to a statement.
(Bloomberg)
Oman's budget deficit revised down 10% to OMR2.7bn for 2018
– Oman revised its preliminary 2018 budget deficit estimate to
OMR2.7bn from OMR3bn on higher revenue. Budget income
reached OMR10.9bn, up from an earlier projection for
OMR9.5bn. It has recorded non-oil revenue of OMR2.4bn, state-
run Oman News Agency reported. (Bloomberg)
Al Salam Bank-Bahrain posts net profit of BHD18.5mn in
FY2018 – Al Salam Bank-Bahrain (SALAM) recorded net profit
of BHD18.5mn in FY2018, an increase of 2.2% YoY. Finance
Income rose 10.2% YoY to BHD49.4mn in FY2018. Total
operating income fell 8.8% YoY to BHD56.7mn in FY2018. Total
assets stood at BHD1,710.3mn at the end of December 31, 2018
as compared to BHD1,589.2mn at the end of December 31, 2017.
Financing assets stood at BHD568.9mn (+6.8% YoY), while
placements from customers stood at BHD705.9mn (+17.1%
YoY) at the end of December 31, 2018. EPS came in at BHD0.087
in FY2018 as compared to BHD0.085 in FY2017. (DFM)
Investcorp and Standard Life will raise around $1bn for Gulf
Fund – Bahrain’s Investcorp Bank and Standard Life Aberdeen
plan to raise $800mn to $1bn for a fund to invest in
infrastructure in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The
venture between the Bahrain-based alternative-assets manager
and the Scottish firm’s Aberdeen Standard Investments unit
will focus on healthcare, education and utilities. It may also
invest in the wider Middle East and Levant. (Bloomberg)
7. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar, CFA, CAIA Shahan Keushgerian Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa
Mehmet Aksoy, PhD QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L.
Senior Research Analyst Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6589 PO Box 24025
mehmet.aksoy@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services Co. W.L.L. (“QNB FS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.). QNB FS is
regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. Qatar National Bank (Q.P.S.C.) is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and
opinions of QNB FS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or
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Page 7 of 7
Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg (*$ adjusted returns)
45.0
70.0
95.0
120.0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
QSEIndex S&PPanArab S&PGCC
0.2%
(1.2%)
0.2%
(1.1%)
(0.2%)
0.0%
0.3%
(1.5%)
(1.0%)
(0.5%)
0.0%
0.5%
SaudiArabia
Qatar
Kuwait
Bahrain
Oman
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D%* WTD%* YTD%*
Gold/Ounce 1,306.25 (0.3) (0.6) 1.9 MSCI World Index 2,052.76 0.4 1.6 9.0
Silver/Ounce 15.57 (0.8) (1.7) 0.5 DJ Industrial 25,543.27 0.5 1.7 9.5
Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 63.61 1.9 2.4 18.2 S&P 500 2,753.03 0.3 1.7 9.8
Crude Oil (WTI)/Barrel (FM Future) 53.90 1.5 2.2 18.7 NASDAQ 100 7,420.38 0.1 1.7 11.8
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 2.63 (3.0) 0.4 (19.1) STOXX 600 364.97 0.2 1.4 6.4
LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 64.75 0.8 4.9 1.2 DAX 11,167.22 (0.0) 1.9 4.2
LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 82.50 2.2 15.0 18.7 FTSE 100 7,190.84 0.5 1.1 7.8
Euro 1.13 (0.6) (0.5) (1.8) CAC 40 5,074.27 (0.0) 1.8 5.6
Yen 111.01 0.5 1.2 1.2 Nikkei 21,144.48 1.0 2.9 5.2
GBP 1.28 (0.4) (0.8) 0.7 MSCI EM 1,041.85 (0.0) 0.6 7.9
CHF 0.99 (0.3) (0.9) (2.7) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,721.07 2.0 3.7 11.0
AUD 0.71 (0.1) 0.0 0.6 HANG SENG 28,497.59 1.2 2.0 10.0
USD Index 97.13 0.4 0.5 1.0 BSE SENSEX 36,034.11 (0.7) (0.9) (1.8)
RUB 66.53 1.0 1.1 (4.6) Bovespa 95,842.40 (1.4) 0.0 12.6
BRL 0.27 (1.2) (0.7) 3.4 RTS 1,190.79 (2.0) (0.7) 11.4
98.0
92.0
79.2