Qatar is experiencing a new wave of population growth driven by expatriates filling jobs created by infrastructure investment for the 2022 World Cup. Population grew at an average annual rate of 15.5% during the last wave from 2004-2009. Now, population growth is picking up again and is expected to exceed 2 million by the end of 2013 and reach 2.2 million in 2014, representing an average annual growth rate of 10.5% over the next two years. This growing population will boost Qatar's economy through higher demand for goods and services but also increase inflation and road congestion.

1. QNB Economics
economics@qnb.com.qa
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PRESS RELEASE
QNB Group: Next Population Wave Hits Qatar’s Shores, According to QNB
Group
Doha, 14 September 2013 - Qatar’s population is currently experiencing a new wave of
expansion, according to QNB Group. This new wave is mainly driven by expatriates filling in jobs
created by the large ramp up in infrastructure investment to prepare for the 2022 World Cup.
This wave is similar to other waves of population growth that have been common in the region
since the 1950s. This latest wave is similar to the last one in 2004-2009 that came in during the
development of Qatar’s hydrocarbon sector. At that time, population grew at an average
annual rate of 15.5%. On the back of both the global economic recession and the completion of
major gas-related projects, population growth then slowed down in 2010-2011. Now, a new
large population wave is hitting Qatar’s shores as the country embarks on its ambitious
program of infrastructure investment. According to QNB Group, this will have a large positive
impact on non-oil growth, a moderate impact on inflation and produce significantly higher road
congestion in the next few years as new expatriates drive up demand for goods and services in
the economy.
According to population data published by the Qatar Statistical Authority (QSA), population
growth began picking up in mid-2012 and rose to double-digits in June 2013 (11.3%). This puts
Qatar once again at the top of the rankings for the world’s highest population growth.
Behind this acceleration in population growth lie the jobs created by the large infrastructure
investment currently underway. The large infrastructure projects are projected to create 120k
jobs a year over the next two years. These jobs are mostly being filled by expatriates as there is
no slack in the domestic labor market. Accordingly, Qatar’s population is expected to cross the
2m milestone in the last quarter of 2013, and reach 2.2m in 2014. This implies an average
10.5% annual growth rate over the next two years (see figure).
Qatar’s Total Population (2004-14)
(millions and % growth)

2. QNB Economics
economics@qnb.com.qa
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of
this report. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise provided, it is that of the analyst or author only. Any investment decision should
depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. The report is distributed on a
complimentary basis. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNB Group.
3.8%
10.5%
15.5%
2014f
2.2
2013f
2.0
2012
1.8
2011
1.72010
1.7
2009
1.6
2008
1.4
2007
1.2
2006
1.0
2005
0.9
2004
0.8
Source: QSA and QNB Group analysis and forecasts
The large infrastructure spending will have a direct and indirect impact on economic growth in
Qatar. It will directly increase economic growth through higher demand for cement, steel,
labor, and services. At the same time, it will also have an indirect effect as the new wave of
expatriate workers require food, housing, transportation, and other services, including banking.
In turn, higher population growth will also require additional investments in housing, roads,
schools, etc., thus pushing up economic growth in the years ahead. Overall, the direct and
indirect impact of this ramp up in infrastructure spending is projected to push up real GDP
growth this year to 6.5% and 6.8% in 2014.
At the same time, this new wave of expatriate workers is likely to put upward pressure on
rents, which account for nearly a third of the consumer price index. The growing population has
already pushed up inflation to 3.1% in the 12 months to August, largely owing to rising
residential rents. As infrastructure-related spending picks up further and the expatriate
population increases accordingly, inflation is expected to gradually increase to 3.6% and 3.8% in
2013 and 2014, respectively.
Qatar’s rapidly expanding population is also putting further pressure on the country’s road
networks. With Qatar’s population more than tripling in the last 12 years, there has been a
parallel increase in the number of vehicles on the roads (876,039 vehicles in 2012, compared
with 287,500 in 2000). As the next wave of expatriates enter the country, it will put further
strains on Qatar’s road infrastructure.

3. QNB Economics
economics@qnb.com.qa
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: QNB Group accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of
this report. Where an opinion is expressed, unless otherwise provided, it is that of the analyst or author only. Any investment decision should
depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. The report is distributed on a
complimentary basis. It may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNB Group.
In summary, the large public sector infrastructure projects envisaged to the lead up to the 2022
World Cup will require a significant expansion in Qatar’s labor force. This is leading to a new
population wave, which is expected to push the overall population to over 2.2m by 2014.
According to QNB Group, this robust growth will produce higher economic growth, moderate
inflation, and significantly higher traffic congestion in the years ahead.
** Ends **