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  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Integra9ng	
  Risk	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  
Management	
  
Project	
  Controls	
  Expo	
  –	
  13th	
  Nov	
  2013	
  
Twickenham	
  	
  Stadium,	
  London	
  	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Speakers	
  Profile	
  
	
  
	
  
Jo	
  has	
  provided	
  Project	
  Controls	
  exper9se	
  to	
  various	
  industries	
  including	
  	
  Rail,	
  
Construc9on	
  and	
  MoD	
  Programme	
  teams	
  in	
  a	
  number	
  of	
  major	
  defence	
  programmes	
  
within	
  the	
  Land	
  and	
  Naval	
  environments.	
  	
  Specifically	
  she	
  has	
  supported,	
  Governance,	
  
Risk,	
  Schedule	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  Management.	
  She	
  has	
  performed	
  many	
  risk	
  qualita9ve	
  
and	
  quan9ta9ve	
  analyses,	
  integrated	
  baseline	
  reviews	
  and	
  cause	
  and	
  effect	
  workshops.	
  
She	
  is	
  a	
  Principal	
  Consultant	
  and	
  Professional	
  Trainer	
  and	
  is	
  the	
  Training	
  Capability	
  Lead	
  
for	
  BMT	
  Hi-­‐Q	
  Sigma.	
  	
  	
  
	
  
Jos	
  has	
  specialised	
  in	
  Planning	
  and	
  Risk	
  Management	
  within	
  Defence	
  for	
  the	
  last	
  four	
  
years,	
  having	
  previously	
  provided	
  Project	
  Controls	
  assistance	
  within	
  the	
  Avia9on	
  
domain.	
  She	
  has	
  facilitated	
  risk	
  iden9fica9on	
  workshops	
  and	
  risk	
  reviews	
  and	
  run	
  
quan9ta9ve	
  schedule	
  risk	
  analysis	
  many	
  9mes.	
  	
  She	
  	
  has	
  worked	
  extensively	
  in	
  
scheduling,	
  and	
  supported	
  many	
  project	
  and	
  programmes	
  in	
  the	
  development	
  of	
  robust	
  
schedules	
  applying	
  best	
  prac9ce	
  methodology	
  and	
  approaches.	
  She	
  is	
  a	
  Managing	
  
Consultant	
  at	
  BMT	
  Hi-­‐Q	
  Sigma.	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
BMT	
  Group	
  
o  An	
  interna9onal	
  network	
  of	
  subsidiaries	
  providing	
  
engineering,	
  design	
  and	
  risk	
  management	
  consultancy	
  
o  Wholly	
  independent	
  partner	
  providing	
  customers	
  with	
  
access	
  to	
  exper9se	
  around	
  the	
  globe	
  
o  Heritage	
  of	
  research	
  and	
  technology	
  which	
  drives	
  
significant	
  ongoing	
  investment	
  in	
  R&D	
  and	
  development	
  of	
  
future	
  talent	
  
o  Formed	
  in	
  1985	
  through	
  Government	
  priva9sa9on	
  of	
  
mari9me	
  research	
  and	
  technology	
  organisa9ons	
  
o  Held	
  in	
  beneficial	
  ownership	
  for	
  the	
  staff	
  
o  2011	
  turnover	
  £140	
  million	
  
o  1300	
  staff	
  in	
  22	
  subsidiary	
  companies	
  (60	
  Offices)	
  in	
  23	
  
countries	
  in	
  Europe,	
  North	
  America	
  and	
  Asia	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
BMT	
  Hi-­‐Q	
  Sigma	
  Overview	
  
•  A	
  professional	
  services	
  company	
  compromising	
  of	
  120	
  consultants	
  across	
  
offices	
  in	
  Bath,	
  Basingstoke	
  and	
  London.	
  
•  Opera9ng	
  across	
  the	
  Defence,	
  Energy	
  and	
  Transporta9on	
  sectors.	
  
•  Achieved	
  a	
  turnover	
  in	
  2011	
  of	
  ~	
  £12M.	
  	
  	
  
•  As	
  an	
  employee	
  benefit	
  trust	
  with	
  no	
  manufacturing	
  or	
  supply	
  chain	
  
interests,	
  we	
  provide	
  truly	
  impar9al	
  advice,	
  assistance.	
  	
  
•  In	
  the	
  complex	
  world	
  which	
  we	
  know	
  you	
  face	
  every	
  day,	
  our	
  goal	
  is	
  
simple	
  and	
  steadfast:	
  	
  
Welcome	
  to	
  clear	
  thinking	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
BMT	
  Hi	
  Q	
  Sigma	
  Services	
  and	
  CapabiliNes	
  
•  We	
  help	
  to	
  deliver	
  complex	
  
programmes	
  through	
  the	
  
integra9on	
  of	
  programme	
  
management	
  and	
  systems	
  
engineering	
  
We	
  help	
  you	
  achieve	
  clarity	
  through:	
  	
  
•  Strategic	
  guidance	
  to	
  
organisa9ons	
  in	
  the	
  
establishment	
  and	
  management	
  
of	
  programmes	
  
•  Interven9ons	
  to	
  op9mise	
  
exis9ng	
  programmes/projects	
  
•  Provision	
  of	
  quality	
  people	
  as	
  
interim	
  support	
  	
  
Risk and
Opportunity
Management
Investment
Appraisal
Project Controls
and EVM
Enterprise
Architecture
Requirements
Definition
Training and
Mentoring
Business
Planning and
Forecasting
Business Process
Management
Portfolio
Management
Planning and
Schedule
Management
Feasibility
Studies and Due
Diligence
Project
Diagnostics
Strategic
Guidance
Project
Optimisation
Interim
Support
Enabling Successful Programmes
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Agenda	
  
o  The	
  Background	
  
o  Risk	
  Management	
  –	
  A	
  summary	
  
o  Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  –	
  A	
  summary	
  
o  Overall	
  EVM	
  Process	
  
o  Integra9ng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  
o  Reasons	
  for	
  NOT	
  implemen9ng	
  EVM	
  and	
  the	
  counter	
  
argument	
  
o  PMB	
  and	
  Beyond	
  
o  Hints	
  and	
  Tips	
  
o  Summary	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
The	
  Human	
  Factor	
  
o  You	
  see	
  a	
  backpack	
  unakended	
  on	
  the	
  seat	
  of	
  a	
  bus.	
  Do	
  
you?	
  
n  Leave	
  the	
  bus	
  earlier	
  than	
  planned?	
  
n  Alert	
  adjacent	
  passengers	
  immediately?	
  
n  Calmly	
  tell	
  the	
  bus	
  driver?	
  
n  Open	
  it	
  to	
  see	
  what’s	
  inside?	
  
	
  
n  What	
  influences	
  your	
  decision?	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
QUESTION?	
  
o  What	
  level	
  of	
  experience	
  do	
  you	
  have	
  in	
  earned	
  value	
  management?	
  
n  LiVle	
  or	
  no	
  knowledge	
  of	
  the	
  theory	
  –	
  no	
  pracNcal	
  experience	
  
n  Know	
  the	
  theory	
  –	
  possibly	
  some	
  experience	
  
n  Experienced	
  in	
  EVM	
  possibly	
  implemented	
  but	
  have	
  been	
  involved	
  in	
  
data	
  capture/analysis	
  
n  Very	
  Experienced	
  pracNNoner	
  –	
  implemented	
  EVM,	
  advisor	
  in	
  EVM	
  
o  What	
  level	
  of	
  experience	
  do	
  you	
  have	
  in	
  risk	
  management?	
  
n  LiVle	
  or	
  no	
  knowledge	
  of	
  the	
  theory	
  –	
  no	
  pracNcal	
  experience	
  
n  Know	
  the	
  theory	
  –	
  possibly	
  some	
  experience	
  	
  
n  Experienced	
  in	
  RM	
  possibly	
  implemented	
  but	
  have	
  been	
  heavily	
  
involved	
  in	
  facilitaNng	
  RM	
  
n  Very	
  Experienced	
  pracNNoner	
  –	
  Risk	
  Manager	
  –	
  Implemented	
  risk.	
  Can	
  
do	
  SRA’s.	
  Risk	
  Advisor	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Background	
  to	
  EVM	
  
o  1960’s	
  –	
  US	
  DoD	
  –	
  Aid	
  Financial	
  Analysis	
  
o  1967	
  –	
  DoD	
  introduce	
  35	
  criteria	
  –	
  C/SCSC	
  
o  1979	
  –	
  recognised	
  by	
  the	
  Architecture	
  &	
  Engineering	
  
Industry	
  
o  1987	
  –	
  APM	
  include	
  overview	
  of	
  EVM	
  in	
  PMBOK	
  
o  1989	
  –	
  EVM	
  Champion	
  –	
  Undersecretary	
  of	
  State	
  for	
  
Acquisi9on	
  
o  1991	
  –	
  Avenger	
  II	
  programme	
  cancelled	
  by	
  Secretary	
  of	
  
Defense	
  Dick	
  Cheyney	
  –	
  EVM	
  evidence	
  
o  1995	
  –	
  EVM	
  criteria	
  reduced	
  to	
  32	
  –	
  first	
  ANSI	
  standard	
  
748-­‐A	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Background	
  to	
  EVM	
  
o  2004	
  -­‐	
  Nuclear	
  Decommissioning	
  Authority	
  mandate	
  EVM	
  
by	
  all	
  Site	
  Licence	
  Contractors	
  delivering	
  the	
  UK	
  Nuclear	
  
Decommissioning	
  Programme	
  
o  2006	
  -­‐	
  Ministry	
  of	
  Defence	
  mandate	
  EVM	
  from	
  01	
  Jan	
  06	
  for	
  
the	
  Demonstra9on	
  phase	
  of	
  all	
  new	
  Category	
  A,	
  B	
  and	
  C	
  
projects	
  for	
  DE&S	
  hosted	
  IPTs.	
  	
  
o  2006	
  -­‐	
  AS	
  4817-­‐	
  2006	
  updated	
  –	
  based	
  on	
  ANSI	
  and	
  PMBOK	
  
o  2007	
  -­‐	
  GEIA	
  Standard	
  for	
  Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  -­‐	
  ANSI/
EIA-­‐748-­‐B-­‐2007	
  –	
  last	
  update	
  
o  2008	
  	
  -­‐	
  APM	
  Publish	
  Interfacing	
  Risk	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  
Management	
  Guide	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
The	
  Risk	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  
o  What	
  was	
  the	
  aim?	
  
n  Understand	
  the	
  interfaces	
  between	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  
and	
  implement	
  prac9cal	
  improvements	
  to	
  increase	
  the	
  
chance	
  of	
  delivery	
  to	
  T/C/Q	
  
n  Worked	
  with	
  other	
  professional	
  bodies	
  
o  Defence	
  EVM	
  Implementa9on	
  Group	
  	
  
(DEVMIG)	
  
o  PMI	
  
o  NDIA	
  etc	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Risk	
  Management	
  –	
  A	
  Summary	
  
o  Iden9fies	
  uncertain	
  future	
  events	
  that	
  could	
  affect	
  the	
  
outcome	
  of	
  the	
  objec9ves	
  
o  Iden9fies	
  ac9ons	
  to	
  be	
  put	
  in	
  place	
  to	
  reduce	
  the	
  threat	
  or	
  
op9mise	
  the	
  opportunity	
  
o  Risk	
  exposure	
  =	
  Probability	
  x	
  Impact	
  (crudely)	
  
o  Qualita9ve	
  and	
  Quan9ta9ve	
  assessments	
  -­‐	
  Simula9on	
  used	
  
to	
  give	
  a	
  confidence	
  level	
  	
  
o  Aids	
  Decision	
  making	
  
	
  
	
  
Outcome
Confidence	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  –	
  A	
  Summary	
  
o  Measures	
  performance	
  against	
  a	
  baseline	
  (Performance	
  
Measurement	
  Baseline)	
  
o  Provides	
  performance	
  trends	
  
o  Supplies	
  early	
  warnings	
  
o  Enables	
  greater	
  clarity	
  of	
  poten9al	
  outcomes	
  
o  Scaling	
  and	
  	
  appropriate	
  applica9on	
  depending	
  on	
  the	
  
project/programme	
  scope	
  and	
  complexity	
  
o  Aids	
  decision	
  making	
  
o  Gives	
  confidence	
  of	
  delivery	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Overall	
  EVM	
  Process	
  
Structured	
  in	
  line	
  with	
  ANSI/EIA	
  748-­‐1998	
  	
  from	
  which	
  
the	
  APM	
  EVM	
  Guidelines	
  have	
  been	
  developed	
  
OrganisaNon	
  
Scheduling/resourcing	
  
Budget/Work	
  Auth’n	
  
Management	
  Materials	
  
Risk	
  Management	
  
Change	
  Management	
  
Managerial	
  Analysis	
  
AccounNng	
  
EVMS	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
BCWS	
  –	
  The	
  Budget	
  –	
  Planned	
  Value	
  (PV)	
  
1000's	
   PROJECT	
  DURATION	
  (WEEKS)	
  
TASK	
  	
   BUDGET	
   1	
   2	
   3	
   4	
   5	
   6	
   7	
   8	
   9	
   10	
   11	
   12	
   13	
   14	
   15	
   16	
   17	
   18	
   19	
   20	
  
A	
   5	
   5	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
B	
   20	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
C	
   50	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
D	
   30	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
E	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   5	
   5	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
F	
   60	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   20	
   20	
   20	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
G	
   35	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   5	
   5	
   5	
   5	
   5	
   5	
   5	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
H	
   50	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
I	
   20	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
   	
  	
   	
  	
  
J	
   20	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   	
  	
   10	
   10	
  
BAC	
   300	
   5	
   20	
   20	
   10	
   20	
   25	
   35	
   20	
   20	
   15	
   15	
   15	
   15	
   15	
   5	
   5	
   10	
   10	
   10	
   10	
  
5	
   25	
   45	
   55	
   75	
   100	
   135	
   155	
   175	
   190	
   205	
   220	
   235	
   250	
   255	
   260	
   270	
   280	
   290	
   300	
  
Budget	
  cost	
  of	
  work	
  scheduled	
  -­‐	
  BCWS	
  -­‐	
  Planned	
  Value	
  (PV)	
  
DuraNon	
  -­‐	
  20	
  weeks	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Planned	
  Value	
  -­‐	
  BCWS	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Status	
  at	
  Week	
  12	
  
TASK	
   BUDGET %	
  Complete Earned	
  Value	
  £k Actual	
  Cost	
  £k Planned	
  Value
A 5 100% 5 5 5
B 20 100% 20 20 20
C 50 100% 50 40 50
D 30 67% 20 10 30
E 10 50% 5 5 10
F 60 67% 40 30 60
G 35 36% 12 10 15
H 50 50% 25 20 25
I 20 0% 0 0 0
J 20 0% 0 0 0
Status	
  at	
  Week	
  12
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Status	
  at	
  Week	
  12	
  
Planned	
  Value	
  
Earned	
  Value	
  
Actual	
  Cost	
  
Schedule	
  Variance	
  
Cost	
  Variance	
  
Planned	
  Value	
  
Actual	
  Cost	
  
Earned	
  Value	
  
Performance	
  Measurement	
  
	
  Baseline	
  (PMB)	
  
BAC	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Forecasts	
  
BAC	
   EAC	
  
Forecast	
  delay	
  
Cost	
  variance	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Terminology	
  
Question Answer Acronym
How much work should have been done? Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled
(Planned Value)
BCWS (PV)
How much work is actually done? Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
(Earned Value)
BCWP (EV)
How much did the work done actually
cost?
Actual Cost of Work Performed
(Actual Cost)
ACWP (AC)
What is the total job supposed to cost? Budget at Completion BAC
What is the expected cost of the
remaining work?
Estimate to Complete ETC
What is the expected cost of the total
job?
Estimate at Completion=AC+ETC EAC
What is the calculated expected cost of
the total job?
Independent Estimate to
Complete=ACWP+((BAC-BCWP)/
CPI*SPI))
IEAC
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Terminology	
  
Question Answer Acronym
What is the ratio of work performed to the
actual cost of that work?
Cost Performance Index=BCWP/
ACWP
CPI
What is the ratio of work performed to the
work planned?
Schedule Performance Index-
BCWP/BCWS
SPI
What is the future cost performance index
required to meet the planned budget?
To Complete Performance
Index(BAC)=(BAC-BCWP)/(BAC-
ACWP)
TCPI(BAC)
What is the future cost performance index
required to meet the estimated out-turn costs?
To Complete Performance
Index(EAC)=(BAC-BCWP)/(EAC-
ACWP)
TCPI(EAC)
How do we know whether we are under or over
our planned cost for work performed?
Cost Variance=BCWP-ACWP CV
How do we know whether we are ahead or
behind our planned schedule?
Schedule Variance=BCWP-BCWS SV
How much will I over/under run against the
budget?
Variance at Completion VAC
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Two	
  superb	
  trends	
  
SPI	
  is	
  the	
  ra9o	
  of	
  work	
  performed	
  (BCWP)	
  to	
  work	
  scheduled	
  (BCWS) 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
SPI	
  =	
  BCWP/BCWS	
  (EV/PV)	
  
	
  If	
  SPI	
  =	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  is	
  on	
  track)	
  
	
  If	
  SPI	
  >	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  is	
  ahead	
  of	
  schedule)	
  
	
  If	
  SPI	
  <	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  is	
  behind	
  schedule)	
  
CPI	
  is	
  the	
  ra9o	
  of	
  work	
  performed	
  (BCWP)	
  to	
  the	
  cost	
  of	
  that	
  work	
  (ACWP) 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  CPI	
  =	
  BCWP/ACWP	
  (EV/AC)	
  
	
  If	
  CPI	
  =	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  has	
  earned	
  the	
  same	
  value	
  as	
  it	
  has	
  cost)	
  
	
  If	
  CPI	
  >	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  is	
  being	
  performed	
  for	
  less	
  cost	
  than	
  planned)	
  
	
  If	
  CPI	
  <	
  1.0	
  (the	
  project	
  is	
  being	
  performed	
  for	
  more	
  cost	
  than	
  planned)	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  -­‐	
  APM	
  
o  Risk	
  Management	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  integrate	
  at	
  various	
  
points	
  
n  Establishing	
  the	
  Baseline	
  	
  
n  Through	
  out	
  the	
  lifecycle	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  –	
  Establishing	
  
the	
  Baseline	
  
o  How	
  is	
  the	
  budget	
  to	
  deliver	
  the	
  project	
  scope	
  made	
  up?	
  
Budget
Time
£s
Budget
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  –	
  Establishing	
  
the	
  Baseline	
  
o  But	
  what	
  is	
  it	
  made	
  up	
  of?	
  
PMB
MR
Management	
  Reserve	
  is	
  the	
  
provision	
  for	
  iden9fied	
  and	
  
emergent	
  risks	
  
PMB	
  is	
  the	
  approved	
  plan	
  that	
  the	
  
project	
  will	
  be	
  measured	
  against	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  –	
  Establishing	
  
the	
  Baseline	
  
PMB
MR
Time
£s PMB
MR
Budget
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Management	
  Reserve	
  
PMB
SRP
NSRP Non	
  Specific	
  Risk	
  Provision	
  –	
  
emergent	
  risks	
  
Specific	
  Risk	
  Provision	
  –	
  
iden9fied	
  risks	
  
The	
  approved	
  budget	
  to	
  plan	
  
Management	
  	
  
Reserve	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Management	
  Reserve	
  
PMB
SRP
NSRP
Time
£s PMB
NSRP
Budget
SRP
Management	
  	
  
Reserve	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
The	
  Budget	
  
PMB
SRP
NSRP
PMB
MR
Budget
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
The	
  Two	
  Disciplines	
  
Risk	
  Management	
   Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  
1.1
Establish
Project
Context
1.2
Develop
SOW and
Initial
WBS
1.3
Develop
Top Down
Budget
and
Schedule
1.4
Identify
Strategic
Risk
1.5 Initial
Risk
Analysis
1.6 Revise
Top Down
Budget
and
Schedule
1.7
Integrated
OBS /
WBS
1.8
Establish
Controls
Accounts
1.10
Baseline
the Risk
Register
1.9 Establish the PMB
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
The	
  Two	
  Disciplines	
  
Risk	
  Management	
   Earned	
  Value	
  Management	
  1.1
Establish
Project
Context
1.2
Develop
SOW and
Initial
WBS
1.3
Develop
Top Down
Budget
and
Schedule
1.4
Identify
Strategic
Risk
1.5 Initial
Risk
Analysis
1.6 Revise
Top Down
Budget
and
Schedule
1.7
Integrated
OBS /
WBS
1.8
Establish
Controls
Accounts
1.10
Baseline
the Risk
Register
1.9
Establish
Initial
PMB
1.11
Approved
PMB
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  -­‐	
  Risk	
  Informs	
  
the	
  Baseline	
  
o  So	
  how	
  does	
  risk	
  feed	
  the	
  baseline?	
  
n  Risks	
  have	
  been	
  reviewed	
  
n  Ac9ons	
  approved	
  and	
  included	
  in	
  the	
  baseline	
  	
  
o  Risk	
  Analysis	
  is	
  undertaken	
  to	
  inform	
  the	
  baseline	
  
n  Agreed	
  level	
  of	
  confidence	
  in	
  the	
  PMB	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
IntegraNng	
  the	
  two	
  disciplines	
  -­‐	
  Risk	
  Informs	
  
Management	
  Reserve	
  
o  Specific	
  Risk	
  Provision	
  	
  
n  Determined	
  by	
  carrying	
  out	
  simula9on	
  on	
  the	
  risks	
  
iden9fied	
  in	
  the	
  register	
  
n  Also	
  enables	
  you	
  to	
  understand	
  the	
  risk	
  exposure	
  
o  Non	
  Specific	
  Risk	
  Provision	
  
n  Use	
  previous	
  projects	
  	
  
n  Previous	
  experience	
  
n  Use	
  the	
  risk	
  exposure	
  to	
  give	
  you	
  a	
  view	
  
What	
  does	
  Management	
  Reserve	
  mean	
  to	
  you?	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Through	
  the	
  project	
  lifecycle	
  –	
  Risks	
  	
  
o  Risk	
  Closed	
  /	
  Revised	
  
(threat	
  and	
  
opportunity)	
  
n  Greater	
  
knowledge	
  
n  Ac9ons	
  
successfully	
  
carried	
  out	
  
n  Project	
  milestones	
  
achieved	
  
n  Plan	
  updated	
  
PMB
SRP
NSRP
o  New	
  Risk	
  Iden9fied	
  /	
  
Exis9ng	
  risks	
  reviews	
  
(threat	
  and	
  
opportunity)	
  
n  Greater	
  
knowledge	
  
n  Ac9ons	
  
unsuccessfully	
  
carried	
  out	
  
n  Change	
  to	
  scope	
  
n  Plan	
  updated	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Through	
  the	
  project	
  lifecycle	
  -­‐	
  PMB	
  
o  Approved	
  Transfer	
  
from	
  PMB	
  
n  Ac9on	
  no	
  longer	
  
valid	
  
n  Risk	
  is	
  closed	
  /	
  
exploited	
  
PMB
SRP
NSRP
o  Approved	
  Transfer	
  in	
  
to	
  the	
  PMB	
  
n  Ac9on	
  iden9fied	
  
and	
  planned	
  
n  Risk	
  recovery	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
ReporNng	
  and	
  Decision	
  Making	
  
o  Outputs	
  should	
  aid	
  Management	
  Decision	
  
n  Risk	
  Analysis	
  outputs	
  –	
  likely	
  oukurn	
  or	
  project	
  in	
  terms	
  
of	
  cost	
  and	
  schedule	
  
n  Earned	
  Value	
  
o  SPI	
  and	
  CPI	
  trends	
  
o  EACs	
  
Outcome
Confidence	
  
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Jan Feb Mar April May Jun
SPI
CPI
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Why	
  bother?	
  	
  
o  Increasing	
  complexity	
  
n  Regula9on	
  and	
  government	
  oversight	
  
n  Informa9on	
  management	
  
n  Speed	
  of	
  innova9on	
  
n  The	
  variability	
  of	
  complexity	
  
o  Complexity	
  creates	
  opportuni9es:	
  Gaining	
  compe99ve	
  
advantages,	
  Crea9ng	
  new	
  and	
  beker	
  strategies,	
  Expanding	
  
into	
  new	
  markets,	
  and	
  making	
  their	
  organisa9on	
  more	
  
efficient	
  
o  Increasing	
  complexity:	
  	
  Out	
  of	
  control,	
  difficult	
  to	
  iden9fy	
  and	
  analyse	
  
risks	
  
o  Get	
  control	
  through	
  effec9ve	
  risk	
  and	
  earned	
  value	
  management	
  	
  and	
  
their	
  interfaces	
  –	
  akempt	
  to	
  get	
  the	
  best	
  objec9ve	
  data	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Your	
  working	
  environment	
  
o  What	
  type	
  of	
  projects/programmes	
  do	
  you	
  work	
  on?	
  
n  Major	
  complex	
  programmes	
  duraNon	
  >	
  5	
  years	
  –	
  
mulNple/difficult	
  stakeholders	
  
n  Projects/Programmes	
  	
  duraNon	
  >1	
  year	
  to	
  5	
  years	
  –	
  
number	
  of	
  stakeholders	
  
n  Projects	
  with	
  average	
  duraNon	
  of	
  a	
  year	
  –	
  not	
  many	
  
stakeholders	
  
n  MulNple	
  short	
  term	
  projects	
  e.g.	
  3	
  months	
  duraNon	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
What	
  do	
  you	
  think	
  are	
  the	
  reasons	
  for	
  not	
  
implemenNng	
  EVM?	
  
o  On	
  your	
  table	
  please	
  discuss	
  and	
  agree	
  reasons	
  for	
  NOT	
  
implemen9ng	
  	
  Earned	
  Value	
  Management.	
  Prepare	
  to	
  
feedback	
  at	
  least	
  6	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Common	
  reasons	
  for	
  not	
  implemenNng	
  EVM	
  
•  Special	
  IT	
  tools	
  	
  and	
  specialist	
  skills	
  are	
  required	
  –	
  EVM	
  is	
  no	
  excepNon	
  	
  
•  The	
  programme	
  is	
  too	
  big	
  	
  or	
  too	
  small	
  and	
  so	
  EVM	
  is	
  meaningless	
  (accruals)	
  –	
  Scale	
  it	
  
•  We	
  can’t	
  afford	
  to	
  invest	
  in	
  EVM	
  –	
  Increases	
  the	
  odds	
  of	
  success	
  though!	
  
•  Baseline	
  cannot	
  be	
  established	
  –	
  Creates	
  a	
  focus	
  for	
  establishing	
  a	
  robust	
  schedule	
  
•  There	
  is	
  too	
  much	
  uncertainty	
  in	
  the	
  project(s)	
  –	
  Understand	
  the	
  risks	
  and	
  
performance	
  
•  There	
  are	
  too	
  many	
  changes	
  occurring	
  –	
  Increases	
  the	
  risk	
  -­‐	
  requires	
  more	
  control	
  
•  Makes	
  repor9ng	
  overly	
  bureaucra9c	
  –	
  Make	
  reporNng	
  appropriate	
  
•  EV	
  doesn’t	
  take	
  into	
  account	
  quality	
  –	
  TRUE,	
  but	
  risk	
  does!	
  
•  We	
  do	
  enough	
  planning	
  already	
  –	
  Doesn’t	
  require	
  more	
  planning	
  
•  I	
  don’t	
  really	
  understand	
  it	
  –	
  Senior	
  Managers	
  don’t	
  understand	
  it	
  –	
  Educate	
  –	
  ‘Buy-­‐In’	
  
•  EVM	
  will	
  reveal	
  too	
  much	
  about	
  our	
  inadequacies	
  –	
  Enables	
  them	
  to	
  be	
  addressed!	
  
•  Objec9vity	
  is	
  inappropriate	
  –	
  It	
  is	
  both	
  objecNve	
  and	
  subjecNve	
  –	
  ETC	
  (includes	
  CAM	
  
esNmate)	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Some	
  EVM	
  Tools	
  
o  Scheduling	
  Tools:	
  	
  
n  Microsos	
  Project/Project	
  Server,	
  Primavera	
  P6,	
  Deltek	
  Open	
  Plan,	
  Safran,	
  Artemis	
  
o  EVM	
  Cost	
  Engines:	
  
n  EVMS	
  for	
  Project,	
  Deltek	
  Cobra,	
  Primavera	
  Cost	
  Manager,	
  Deltek	
  MPM,	
  ARES	
  
PRISM,	
  DecisionEdge	
  
o  EVMS	
  ReporNng	
  Engines:	
  
n  Deltek	
  wInsight,	
  DecisionEdge	
  
o  Combine	
  EVM	
  Tools	
  
n  Unanet,	
  Safran,	
  Dekker	
  Trakker	
  
o  AddiNonal	
  IntegraNon	
  Tools	
  
n  forProject,	
  Microsos	
  Project	
  
o  Earned	
  Value	
  Tools:	
  Deltek	
  Cobra,	
  Deltek	
  MPM,	
  Primavera	
  Cost	
  Manager	
  
o  EV	
  ReporNng	
  Tools:	
  Deltek	
  wInisght,	
  Microsos	
  Excel	
  
o  Account/ERP	
  Tools:	
  Oracle	
  Applica9ons,	
  Deltek	
  Costpoint,	
  Deltek	
  GCS	
  Premier,	
  SAP,	
  
Peoplesos,	
  JD	
  Edwards	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Hints	
  and	
  Tips	
  for	
  ImplemenNng	
  Earned	
  
Value	
  Management	
  (EVM)	
  
o  Be	
  not	
  afraid	
  of	
  EVM	
  –	
  it	
  is	
  an	
  approach	
  that	
  can	
  be	
  scaled	
  to	
  your	
  
project’s	
  specific	
  needs.	
  
o  There	
  is	
  an	
  unwarranted	
  belief	
  that	
  EVM	
  is	
  difficult	
  and	
  burdensome,	
  
but	
  if	
  you	
  are	
  controlling	
  your	
  projects	
  you	
  should	
  already	
  have	
  in	
  
place	
  all	
  of	
  the	
  components	
  that	
  are	
  needed	
  for	
  EVM.	
  
o  Give	
  the	
  structures	
  the	
  appropriate	
  aken9on	
  at	
  the	
  start	
  –	
  WBS,	
  OBS	
  
and	
  RAM.	
  	
  Single-­‐point	
  accountability	
  is	
  required	
  for	
  complete	
  work	
  
packages.	
  
o  Avoid	
  too	
  much	
  cluker	
  in	
  the	
  schedule	
  (e.g.	
  don’t	
  put	
  in	
  tasks	
  for	
  
holidays,	
  working	
  groups,	
  etc	
  just	
  because	
  you	
  budget	
  for	
  them!).	
  
o  Ensure	
  that	
  the	
  techniques	
  for	
  collec9ng	
  progress	
  (%	
  complete)	
  are	
  
appropriate	
  and	
  consistent.	
  	
  If	
  the	
  techniques	
  are	
  wrong	
  you	
  won’t	
  
have	
  accurate	
  performance	
  informa9on.	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Hints	
  and	
  Tips	
  for	
  ImplemenNng	
  EVM	
  cont	
  
o  Be	
  clear	
  and	
  consistent	
  about	
  the	
  level	
  at	
  which	
  EVM	
  data	
  is	
  being	
  
collected.	
  
o  Keep	
  in	
  mind	
  that	
  the	
  whole	
  point	
  of	
  these	
  disciplines	
  is	
  to	
  aid	
  
decision-­‐making.	
  	
  You	
  should	
  establish	
  the	
  correct	
  repor9ng	
  &	
  review	
  
hierarchy	
  (which	
  will	
  typically	
  drive	
  decision	
  making	
  to	
  the	
  lowest	
  
prac9cal	
  level);	
  without	
  this	
  governance,	
  these	
  disciplines	
  won’t	
  drive	
  
change.	
  
o  Make	
  sure	
  the	
  people	
  delivering	
  the	
  plan	
  also	
  buy	
  into	
  and	
  ‘own’	
  the	
  
plan.	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
PMB	
  and	
  beyond	
  
IniNal	
  Risk	
  Register	
  
SOW/	
  WBS/	
  Schedule/	
  Budget/	
  
AssumpNons/	
  RAM	
  
Assessed/	
  AcNons	
  Agreed	
  
Robust	
  SOW/	
  WBS/	
  Schedule/	
  Budget/	
  
AssumpNons/	
  RAM	
  
PERFORMANCE	
  MEASUREMENT	
  BASELINE	
  
Baselined	
  Schedule/	
  Budget/	
  
AssumpNons/	
  Scope	
  
Risk	
  Exposure	
  	
   CriNcal	
  Work	
  Packages	
  EV	
  Data	
  
Baseline	
  Risk	
  (Residual)	
  
High	
  Risk	
  Exposure	
  Work	
  
Packages	
  
EV	
  Data	
  	
  
Risk	
  data	
   EV	
  ForecasNng	
  Data	
  
Schedule	
  Risk	
  Analysis	
  
Confidence	
  outputs	
  
EV	
  	
  Schedule	
  Variance	
  Data	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
CriNcal	
  Path	
  Focus	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
High	
  Risk	
  Exposure	
  Focus	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Risk	
  Vs	
  EV	
  Forecast	
  Data	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Schedule	
  Risk	
  Analysis	
  Data	
  Vs	
  EV	
  Variance	
  
Data	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
PMB	
  and	
  beyond	
  
o  Can	
  you	
  iden9fy	
  any	
  other	
  touch	
  points?	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
Risk	
  Exposure	
  	
   CriNcal	
  Work	
  Packages	
  EV	
  Data	
  
High	
  Risk	
  Exposure	
  Work	
  
Packages	
  
EV	
  Data	
  	
  
Risk	
  data	
   EV	
  ForecasNng	
  Data	
  
Schedule	
  Risk	
  Analysis	
  
Confidence	
  outputs	
  
EV	
  	
  Schedule	
  Variance	
  Data	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Hints	
  and	
  Tips	
  For	
  Interfacing	
  Risk	
  and	
  EVM	
  
o  EVM	
  and/	
  or	
  Risk	
  Management	
  	
  (RM)	
  do	
  not	
  exist	
  in	
  isola9on	
  –	
  the	
  
diligent	
  Project	
  Manager	
  uses	
  all	
  the	
  tools	
  and	
  techniques	
  to	
  reveal	
  the	
  
whole	
  picture.	
  
o  Deliver	
  the	
  outputs	
  from	
  EVM,	
  RM	
  and	
  their	
  interfaces	
  using	
  language	
  
appropriate	
  to	
  the	
  audience	
  otherwise	
  the	
  message	
  may	
  get	
  lost.	
  
o  Train	
  the	
  team	
  (CAMs,	
  planners,	
  management	
  team,	
  etc)	
  to	
  improve	
  
ownership	
  and	
  buy-­‐in	
  of	
  all	
  the	
  inputs	
  and	
  outputs	
  of	
  EVM	
  and	
  RM	
  
o  Consider	
  all	
  risk	
  mi9ga9on	
  ac9ons	
  prior	
  to	
  the	
  establishment	
  of	
  the	
  
Performance	
  Measurement	
  Baseline	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Summary	
  
o  Risk	
  Management	
  should	
  inform	
  the	
  PMB	
  
o  Well	
  understood	
  PMB	
  is	
  essen9al	
  
n  What	
  is	
  in	
  and	
  not	
  in	
  the	
  PMB	
  
o  Risk	
  and	
  Earned	
  Value	
  Data	
  can	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  understand	
  and	
  
improve	
  trends,	
  forecasts	
  etc.	
  	
  
o  Integrated	
  Risk	
  and	
  EV	
  repor9ng	
  aids	
  a	
  beker	
  
understanding	
  of	
  current	
  status	
  and	
  forecasts/	
  trends	
  
o  Informa9on	
  from	
  integrated	
  Risk	
  and	
  EV	
  help	
  inform	
  
management	
  decisions	
  
o  The	
  culture	
  must	
  be	
  right!	
  
	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
Your	
  opinion	
  counts!	
  
o  Do	
  you	
  think	
  that	
  interfacing	
  risk	
  and	
  earned	
  value	
  management	
  is	
  
beneficial?	
  
n  Use	
  all	
  the	
  given	
  data	
  and	
  compare	
  results	
  and	
  staNsNcs	
  
n  Embed	
  risk	
  in	
  the	
  PMB	
  as	
  discussed-­‐	
  not	
  sure	
  of	
  the	
  benefits	
  
through	
  life	
  
n  Only	
  in	
  understanding	
  what	
  risks	
  could	
  impact	
  the	
  PMB	
  
n  Not	
  at	
  all	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
QuesNons	
  
 	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  Copyright	
  @	
  2011.	
  All	
  rights	
  reserved	
  
THANK	
  YOU	
  
Jo	
  Langley	
  
Joan.Langley@hiqsigma.com	
  
Mob:	
  +44	
  (0)	
  7834	
  254294	
  
Jos	
  Espouy	
  
Jos.Espouy@hiqsigma.com	
  
Mob:	
  +44	
  (0)	
  7765	
  255246	
  
	
  
BMT	
  Hi-­‐Q	
  Sigma	
  Ltd	
  
5	
  Riverside	
  Court	
  
Lower	
  Bristol	
  Road	
  
Bath,	
  BA2	
  3DZ	
  
United	
  Kingdom	
  
www.bmt-­‐hqs.com	
  
Tel:	
  	
  	
  +44	
  (0)	
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Fax:	
  	
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Project Controls Expo 13th Nov 2013 - "Integrating Risk and Earned Value Management" By Jo Langley & Jos Espouy

  • 1.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Integra9ng  Risk  and  Earned  Value   Management   Project  Controls  Expo  –  13th  Nov  2013   Twickenham    Stadium,  London    
  • 2.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Speakers  Profile       Jo  has  provided  Project  Controls  exper9se  to  various  industries  including    Rail,   Construc9on  and  MoD  Programme  teams  in  a  number  of  major  defence  programmes   within  the  Land  and  Naval  environments.    Specifically  she  has  supported,  Governance,   Risk,  Schedule  and  Earned  Value  Management.  She  has  performed  many  risk  qualita9ve   and  quan9ta9ve  analyses,  integrated  baseline  reviews  and  cause  and  effect  workshops.   She  is  a  Principal  Consultant  and  Professional  Trainer  and  is  the  Training  Capability  Lead   for  BMT  Hi-­‐Q  Sigma.         Jos  has  specialised  in  Planning  and  Risk  Management  within  Defence  for  the  last  four   years,  having  previously  provided  Project  Controls  assistance  within  the  Avia9on   domain.  She  has  facilitated  risk  iden9fica9on  workshops  and  risk  reviews  and  run   quan9ta9ve  schedule  risk  analysis  many  9mes.    She    has  worked  extensively  in   scheduling,  and  supported  many  project  and  programmes  in  the  development  of  robust   schedules  applying  best  prac9ce  methodology  and  approaches.  She  is  a  Managing   Consultant  at  BMT  Hi-­‐Q  Sigma.  
  • 3.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   BMT  Group   o  An  interna9onal  network  of  subsidiaries  providing   engineering,  design  and  risk  management  consultancy   o  Wholly  independent  partner  providing  customers  with   access  to  exper9se  around  the  globe   o  Heritage  of  research  and  technology  which  drives   significant  ongoing  investment  in  R&D  and  development  of   future  talent   o  Formed  in  1985  through  Government  priva9sa9on  of   mari9me  research  and  technology  organisa9ons   o  Held  in  beneficial  ownership  for  the  staff   o  2011  turnover  £140  million   o  1300  staff  in  22  subsidiary  companies  (60  Offices)  in  23   countries  in  Europe,  North  America  and  Asia  
  • 4.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   BMT  Hi-­‐Q  Sigma  Overview   •  A  professional  services  company  compromising  of  120  consultants  across   offices  in  Bath,  Basingstoke  and  London.   •  Opera9ng  across  the  Defence,  Energy  and  Transporta9on  sectors.   •  Achieved  a  turnover  in  2011  of  ~  £12M.       •  As  an  employee  benefit  trust  with  no  manufacturing  or  supply  chain   interests,  we  provide  truly  impar9al  advice,  assistance.     •  In  the  complex  world  which  we  know  you  face  every  day,  our  goal  is   simple  and  steadfast:     Welcome  to  clear  thinking  
  • 5.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   BMT  Hi  Q  Sigma  Services  and  CapabiliNes   •  We  help  to  deliver  complex   programmes  through  the   integra9on  of  programme   management  and  systems   engineering   We  help  you  achieve  clarity  through:     •  Strategic  guidance  to   organisa9ons  in  the   establishment  and  management   of  programmes   •  Interven9ons  to  op9mise   exis9ng  programmes/projects   •  Provision  of  quality  people  as   interim  support     Risk and Opportunity Management Investment Appraisal Project Controls and EVM Enterprise Architecture Requirements Definition Training and Mentoring Business Planning and Forecasting Business Process Management Portfolio Management Planning and Schedule Management Feasibility Studies and Due Diligence Project Diagnostics Strategic Guidance Project Optimisation Interim Support Enabling Successful Programmes
  • 6.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Agenda   o  The  Background   o  Risk  Management  –  A  summary   o  Earned  Value  Management  –  A  summary   o  Overall  EVM  Process   o  Integra9ng  the  two  disciplines   o  Reasons  for  NOT  implemen9ng  EVM  and  the  counter   argument   o  PMB  and  Beyond   o  Hints  and  Tips   o  Summary  
  • 7.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   The  Human  Factor   o  You  see  a  backpack  unakended  on  the  seat  of  a  bus.  Do   you?   n  Leave  the  bus  earlier  than  planned?   n  Alert  adjacent  passengers  immediately?   n  Calmly  tell  the  bus  driver?   n  Open  it  to  see  what’s  inside?     n  What  influences  your  decision?  
  • 8.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   QUESTION?   o  What  level  of  experience  do  you  have  in  earned  value  management?   n  LiVle  or  no  knowledge  of  the  theory  –  no  pracNcal  experience   n  Know  the  theory  –  possibly  some  experience   n  Experienced  in  EVM  possibly  implemented  but  have  been  involved  in   data  capture/analysis   n  Very  Experienced  pracNNoner  –  implemented  EVM,  advisor  in  EVM   o  What  level  of  experience  do  you  have  in  risk  management?   n  LiVle  or  no  knowledge  of  the  theory  –  no  pracNcal  experience   n  Know  the  theory  –  possibly  some  experience     n  Experienced  in  RM  possibly  implemented  but  have  been  heavily   involved  in  facilitaNng  RM   n  Very  Experienced  pracNNoner  –  Risk  Manager  –  Implemented  risk.  Can   do  SRA’s.  Risk  Advisor  
  • 9.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Background  to  EVM   o  1960’s  –  US  DoD  –  Aid  Financial  Analysis   o  1967  –  DoD  introduce  35  criteria  –  C/SCSC   o  1979  –  recognised  by  the  Architecture  &  Engineering   Industry   o  1987  –  APM  include  overview  of  EVM  in  PMBOK   o  1989  –  EVM  Champion  –  Undersecretary  of  State  for   Acquisi9on   o  1991  –  Avenger  II  programme  cancelled  by  Secretary  of   Defense  Dick  Cheyney  –  EVM  evidence   o  1995  –  EVM  criteria  reduced  to  32  –  first  ANSI  standard   748-­‐A  
  • 10.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Background  to  EVM   o  2004  -­‐  Nuclear  Decommissioning  Authority  mandate  EVM   by  all  Site  Licence  Contractors  delivering  the  UK  Nuclear   Decommissioning  Programme   o  2006  -­‐  Ministry  of  Defence  mandate  EVM  from  01  Jan  06  for   the  Demonstra9on  phase  of  all  new  Category  A,  B  and  C   projects  for  DE&S  hosted  IPTs.     o  2006  -­‐  AS  4817-­‐  2006  updated  –  based  on  ANSI  and  PMBOK   o  2007  -­‐  GEIA  Standard  for  Earned  Value  Management  -­‐  ANSI/ EIA-­‐748-­‐B-­‐2007  –  last  update   o  2008    -­‐  APM  Publish  Interfacing  Risk  and  Earned  Value   Management  Guide    
  • 11.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   The  Risk  and  Earned  Value  Management   o  What  was  the  aim?   n  Understand  the  interfaces  between  the  two  disciplines   and  implement  prac9cal  improvements  to  increase  the   chance  of  delivery  to  T/C/Q   n  Worked  with  other  professional  bodies   o  Defence  EVM  Implementa9on  Group     (DEVMIG)   o  PMI   o  NDIA  etc  
  • 12.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Risk  Management  –  A  Summary   o  Iden9fies  uncertain  future  events  that  could  affect  the   outcome  of  the  objec9ves   o  Iden9fies  ac9ons  to  be  put  in  place  to  reduce  the  threat  or   op9mise  the  opportunity   o  Risk  exposure  =  Probability  x  Impact  (crudely)   o  Qualita9ve  and  Quan9ta9ve  assessments  -­‐  Simula9on  used   to  give  a  confidence  level     o  Aids  Decision  making       Outcome Confidence  
  • 13.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Earned  Value  Management  –  A  Summary   o  Measures  performance  against  a  baseline  (Performance   Measurement  Baseline)   o  Provides  performance  trends   o  Supplies  early  warnings   o  Enables  greater  clarity  of  poten9al  outcomes   o  Scaling  and    appropriate  applica9on  depending  on  the   project/programme  scope  and  complexity   o  Aids  decision  making   o  Gives  confidence  of  delivery  
  • 14.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Overall  EVM  Process   Structured  in  line  with  ANSI/EIA  748-­‐1998    from  which   the  APM  EVM  Guidelines  have  been  developed   OrganisaNon   Scheduling/resourcing   Budget/Work  Auth’n   Management  Materials   Risk  Management   Change  Management   Managerial  Analysis   AccounNng   EVMS  
  • 15.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   BCWS  –  The  Budget  –  Planned  Value  (PV)   1000's   PROJECT  DURATION  (WEEKS)   TASK     BUDGET   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   A   5   5                                                                               B   20       10   10                                                                       C   50       10   10   10   10   10                                                           D   30                   10   10   10                                                       E   10                       5   5                                                       F   60                           20   20   20                                               G   35                                       5   5   5   5   5   5   5                   H   50                                       10   10   10   10   10                           I   20                                                                   10   10           J   20                                                                           10   10   BAC   300   5   20   20   10   20   25   35   20   20   15   15   15   15   15   5   5   10   10   10   10   5   25   45   55   75   100   135   155   175   190   205   220   235   250   255   260   270   280   290   300   Budget  cost  of  work  scheduled  -­‐  BCWS  -­‐  Planned  Value  (PV)   DuraNon  -­‐  20  weeks  
  • 16.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Planned  Value  -­‐  BCWS    
  • 17.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Status  at  Week  12   TASK   BUDGET %  Complete Earned  Value  £k Actual  Cost  £k Planned  Value A 5 100% 5 5 5 B 20 100% 20 20 20 C 50 100% 50 40 50 D 30 67% 20 10 30 E 10 50% 5 5 10 F 60 67% 40 30 60 G 35 36% 12 10 15 H 50 50% 25 20 25 I 20 0% 0 0 0 J 20 0% 0 0 0 Status  at  Week  12
  • 18.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Status  at  Week  12   Planned  Value   Earned  Value   Actual  Cost   Schedule  Variance   Cost  Variance   Planned  Value   Actual  Cost   Earned  Value   Performance  Measurement    Baseline  (PMB)   BAC  
  • 19.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Forecasts   BAC   EAC   Forecast  delay   Cost  variance  
  • 20.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Terminology   Question Answer Acronym How much work should have been done? Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (Planned Value) BCWS (PV) How much work is actually done? Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (Earned Value) BCWP (EV) How much did the work done actually cost? Actual Cost of Work Performed (Actual Cost) ACWP (AC) What is the total job supposed to cost? Budget at Completion BAC What is the expected cost of the remaining work? Estimate to Complete ETC What is the expected cost of the total job? Estimate at Completion=AC+ETC EAC What is the calculated expected cost of the total job? Independent Estimate to Complete=ACWP+((BAC-BCWP)/ CPI*SPI)) IEAC
  • 21.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Terminology   Question Answer Acronym What is the ratio of work performed to the actual cost of that work? Cost Performance Index=BCWP/ ACWP CPI What is the ratio of work performed to the work planned? Schedule Performance Index- BCWP/BCWS SPI What is the future cost performance index required to meet the planned budget? To Complete Performance Index(BAC)=(BAC-BCWP)/(BAC- ACWP) TCPI(BAC) What is the future cost performance index required to meet the estimated out-turn costs? To Complete Performance Index(EAC)=(BAC-BCWP)/(EAC- ACWP) TCPI(EAC) How do we know whether we are under or over our planned cost for work performed? Cost Variance=BCWP-ACWP CV How do we know whether we are ahead or behind our planned schedule? Schedule Variance=BCWP-BCWS SV How much will I over/under run against the budget? Variance at Completion VAC
  • 22.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Two  superb  trends   SPI  is  the  ra9o  of  work  performed  (BCWP)  to  work  scheduled  (BCWS)                           SPI  =  BCWP/BCWS  (EV/PV)    If  SPI  =  1.0  (the  project  is  on  track)    If  SPI  >  1.0  (the  project  is  ahead  of  schedule)    If  SPI  <  1.0  (the  project  is  behind  schedule)   CPI  is  the  ra9o  of  work  performed  (BCWP)  to  the  cost  of  that  work  (ACWP)                          CPI  =  BCWP/ACWP  (EV/AC)    If  CPI  =  1.0  (the  project  has  earned  the  same  value  as  it  has  cost)    If  CPI  >  1.0  (the  project  is  being  performed  for  less  cost  than  planned)    If  CPI  <  1.0  (the  project  is  being  performed  for  more  cost  than  planned)  
  • 23.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  -­‐  APM   o  Risk  Management  and  Earned  Value  integrate  at  various   points   n  Establishing  the  Baseline     n  Through  out  the  lifecycle  
  • 24.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  –  Establishing   the  Baseline   o  How  is  the  budget  to  deliver  the  project  scope  made  up?   Budget Time £s Budget
  • 25.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  –  Establishing   the  Baseline   o  But  what  is  it  made  up  of?   PMB MR Management  Reserve  is  the   provision  for  iden9fied  and   emergent  risks   PMB  is  the  approved  plan  that  the   project  will  be  measured  against  
  • 26.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  –  Establishing   the  Baseline   PMB MR Time £s PMB MR Budget
  • 27.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Management  Reserve   PMB SRP NSRP Non  Specific  Risk  Provision  –   emergent  risks   Specific  Risk  Provision  –   iden9fied  risks   The  approved  budget  to  plan   Management     Reserve  
  • 28.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Management  Reserve   PMB SRP NSRP Time £s PMB NSRP Budget SRP Management     Reserve  
  • 29.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   The  Budget   PMB SRP NSRP PMB MR Budget
  • 30.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   The  Two  Disciplines   Risk  Management   Earned  Value  Management   1.1 Establish Project Context 1.2 Develop SOW and Initial WBS 1.3 Develop Top Down Budget and Schedule 1.4 Identify Strategic Risk 1.5 Initial Risk Analysis 1.6 Revise Top Down Budget and Schedule 1.7 Integrated OBS / WBS 1.8 Establish Controls Accounts 1.10 Baseline the Risk Register 1.9 Establish the PMB
  • 31.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   The  Two  Disciplines   Risk  Management   Earned  Value  Management  1.1 Establish Project Context 1.2 Develop SOW and Initial WBS 1.3 Develop Top Down Budget and Schedule 1.4 Identify Strategic Risk 1.5 Initial Risk Analysis 1.6 Revise Top Down Budget and Schedule 1.7 Integrated OBS / WBS 1.8 Establish Controls Accounts 1.10 Baseline the Risk Register 1.9 Establish Initial PMB 1.11 Approved PMB
  • 32.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  -­‐  Risk  Informs   the  Baseline   o  So  how  does  risk  feed  the  baseline?   n  Risks  have  been  reviewed   n  Ac9ons  approved  and  included  in  the  baseline     o  Risk  Analysis  is  undertaken  to  inform  the  baseline   n  Agreed  level  of  confidence  in  the  PMB  
  • 33.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   IntegraNng  the  two  disciplines  -­‐  Risk  Informs   Management  Reserve   o  Specific  Risk  Provision     n  Determined  by  carrying  out  simula9on  on  the  risks   iden9fied  in  the  register   n  Also  enables  you  to  understand  the  risk  exposure   o  Non  Specific  Risk  Provision   n  Use  previous  projects     n  Previous  experience   n  Use  the  risk  exposure  to  give  you  a  view   What  does  Management  Reserve  mean  to  you?  
  • 34.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Through  the  project  lifecycle  –  Risks     o  Risk  Closed  /  Revised   (threat  and   opportunity)   n  Greater   knowledge   n  Ac9ons   successfully   carried  out   n  Project  milestones   achieved   n  Plan  updated   PMB SRP NSRP o  New  Risk  Iden9fied  /   Exis9ng  risks  reviews   (threat  and   opportunity)   n  Greater   knowledge   n  Ac9ons   unsuccessfully   carried  out   n  Change  to  scope   n  Plan  updated  
  • 35.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Through  the  project  lifecycle  -­‐  PMB   o  Approved  Transfer   from  PMB   n  Ac9on  no  longer   valid   n  Risk  is  closed  /   exploited   PMB SRP NSRP o  Approved  Transfer  in   to  the  PMB   n  Ac9on  iden9fied   and  planned   n  Risk  recovery  
  • 36.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   ReporNng  and  Decision  Making   o  Outputs  should  aid  Management  Decision   n  Risk  Analysis  outputs  –  likely  oukurn  or  project  in  terms   of  cost  and  schedule   n  Earned  Value   o  SPI  and  CPI  trends   o  EACs   Outcome Confidence   0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 Jan Feb Mar April May Jun SPI CPI
  • 37.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Why  bother?     o  Increasing  complexity   n  Regula9on  and  government  oversight   n  Informa9on  management   n  Speed  of  innova9on   n  The  variability  of  complexity   o  Complexity  creates  opportuni9es:  Gaining  compe99ve   advantages,  Crea9ng  new  and  beker  strategies,  Expanding   into  new  markets,  and  making  their  organisa9on  more   efficient   o  Increasing  complexity:    Out  of  control,  difficult  to  iden9fy  and  analyse   risks   o  Get  control  through  effec9ve  risk  and  earned  value  management    and   their  interfaces  –  akempt  to  get  the  best  objec9ve  data    
  • 38.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Your  working  environment   o  What  type  of  projects/programmes  do  you  work  on?   n  Major  complex  programmes  duraNon  >  5  years  –   mulNple/difficult  stakeholders   n  Projects/Programmes    duraNon  >1  year  to  5  years  –   number  of  stakeholders   n  Projects  with  average  duraNon  of  a  year  –  not  many   stakeholders   n  MulNple  short  term  projects  e.g.  3  months  duraNon  
  • 39.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   What  do  you  think  are  the  reasons  for  not   implemenNng  EVM?   o  On  your  table  please  discuss  and  agree  reasons  for  NOT   implemen9ng    Earned  Value  Management.  Prepare  to   feedback  at  least  6  
  • 40.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Common  reasons  for  not  implemenNng  EVM   •  Special  IT  tools    and  specialist  skills  are  required  –  EVM  is  no  excepNon     •  The  programme  is  too  big    or  too  small  and  so  EVM  is  meaningless  (accruals)  –  Scale  it   •  We  can’t  afford  to  invest  in  EVM  –  Increases  the  odds  of  success  though!   •  Baseline  cannot  be  established  –  Creates  a  focus  for  establishing  a  robust  schedule   •  There  is  too  much  uncertainty  in  the  project(s)  –  Understand  the  risks  and   performance   •  There  are  too  many  changes  occurring  –  Increases  the  risk  -­‐  requires  more  control   •  Makes  repor9ng  overly  bureaucra9c  –  Make  reporNng  appropriate   •  EV  doesn’t  take  into  account  quality  –  TRUE,  but  risk  does!   •  We  do  enough  planning  already  –  Doesn’t  require  more  planning   •  I  don’t  really  understand  it  –  Senior  Managers  don’t  understand  it  –  Educate  –  ‘Buy-­‐In’   •  EVM  will  reveal  too  much  about  our  inadequacies  –  Enables  them  to  be  addressed!   •  Objec9vity  is  inappropriate  –  It  is  both  objecNve  and  subjecNve  –  ETC  (includes  CAM   esNmate)  
  • 41.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Some  EVM  Tools   o  Scheduling  Tools:     n  Microsos  Project/Project  Server,  Primavera  P6,  Deltek  Open  Plan,  Safran,  Artemis   o  EVM  Cost  Engines:   n  EVMS  for  Project,  Deltek  Cobra,  Primavera  Cost  Manager,  Deltek  MPM,  ARES   PRISM,  DecisionEdge   o  EVMS  ReporNng  Engines:   n  Deltek  wInsight,  DecisionEdge   o  Combine  EVM  Tools   n  Unanet,  Safran,  Dekker  Trakker   o  AddiNonal  IntegraNon  Tools   n  forProject,  Microsos  Project   o  Earned  Value  Tools:  Deltek  Cobra,  Deltek  MPM,  Primavera  Cost  Manager   o  EV  ReporNng  Tools:  Deltek  wInisght,  Microsos  Excel   o  Account/ERP  Tools:  Oracle  Applica9ons,  Deltek  Costpoint,  Deltek  GCS  Premier,  SAP,   Peoplesos,  JD  Edwards  
  • 42.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Hints  and  Tips  for  ImplemenNng  Earned   Value  Management  (EVM)   o  Be  not  afraid  of  EVM  –  it  is  an  approach  that  can  be  scaled  to  your   project’s  specific  needs.   o  There  is  an  unwarranted  belief  that  EVM  is  difficult  and  burdensome,   but  if  you  are  controlling  your  projects  you  should  already  have  in   place  all  of  the  components  that  are  needed  for  EVM.   o  Give  the  structures  the  appropriate  aken9on  at  the  start  –  WBS,  OBS   and  RAM.    Single-­‐point  accountability  is  required  for  complete  work   packages.   o  Avoid  too  much  cluker  in  the  schedule  (e.g.  don’t  put  in  tasks  for   holidays,  working  groups,  etc  just  because  you  budget  for  them!).   o  Ensure  that  the  techniques  for  collec9ng  progress  (%  complete)  are   appropriate  and  consistent.    If  the  techniques  are  wrong  you  won’t   have  accurate  performance  informa9on.  
  • 43.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Hints  and  Tips  for  ImplemenNng  EVM  cont   o  Be  clear  and  consistent  about  the  level  at  which  EVM  data  is  being   collected.   o  Keep  in  mind  that  the  whole  point  of  these  disciplines  is  to  aid   decision-­‐making.    You  should  establish  the  correct  repor9ng  &  review   hierarchy  (which  will  typically  drive  decision  making  to  the  lowest   prac9cal  level);  without  this  governance,  these  disciplines  won’t  drive   change.   o  Make  sure  the  people  delivering  the  plan  also  buy  into  and  ‘own’  the   plan.  
  • 44.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   PMB  and  beyond   IniNal  Risk  Register   SOW/  WBS/  Schedule/  Budget/   AssumpNons/  RAM   Assessed/  AcNons  Agreed   Robust  SOW/  WBS/  Schedule/  Budget/   AssumpNons/  RAM   PERFORMANCE  MEASUREMENT  BASELINE   Baselined  Schedule/  Budget/   AssumpNons/  Scope   Risk  Exposure     CriNcal  Work  Packages  EV  Data   Baseline  Risk  (Residual)   High  Risk  Exposure  Work   Packages   EV  Data     Risk  data   EV  ForecasNng  Data   Schedule  Risk  Analysis   Confidence  outputs   EV    Schedule  Variance  Data  
  • 45.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   CriNcal  Path  Focus        
  • 46.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   High  Risk  Exposure  Focus        
  • 47.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Risk  Vs  EV  Forecast  Data        
  • 48.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Schedule  Risk  Analysis  Data  Vs  EV  Variance   Data        
  • 49.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   PMB  and  beyond   o  Can  you  iden9fy  any  other  touch  points?         Risk  Exposure     CriNcal  Work  Packages  EV  Data   High  Risk  Exposure  Work   Packages   EV  Data     Risk  data   EV  ForecasNng  Data   Schedule  Risk  Analysis   Confidence  outputs   EV    Schedule  Variance  Data  
  • 50.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Hints  and  Tips  For  Interfacing  Risk  and  EVM   o  EVM  and/  or  Risk  Management    (RM)  do  not  exist  in  isola9on  –  the   diligent  Project  Manager  uses  all  the  tools  and  techniques  to  reveal  the   whole  picture.   o  Deliver  the  outputs  from  EVM,  RM  and  their  interfaces  using  language   appropriate  to  the  audience  otherwise  the  message  may  get  lost.   o  Train  the  team  (CAMs,  planners,  management  team,  etc)  to  improve   ownership  and  buy-­‐in  of  all  the  inputs  and  outputs  of  EVM  and  RM   o  Consider  all  risk  mi9ga9on  ac9ons  prior  to  the  establishment  of  the   Performance  Measurement  Baseline  
  • 51.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Summary   o  Risk  Management  should  inform  the  PMB   o  Well  understood  PMB  is  essen9al   n  What  is  in  and  not  in  the  PMB   o  Risk  and  Earned  Value  Data  can  be  used  to  understand  and   improve  trends,  forecasts  etc.     o  Integrated  Risk  and  EV  repor9ng  aids  a  beker   understanding  of  current  status  and  forecasts/  trends   o  Informa9on  from  integrated  Risk  and  EV  help  inform   management  decisions   o  The  culture  must  be  right!    
  • 52.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   Your  opinion  counts!   o  Do  you  think  that  interfacing  risk  and  earned  value  management  is   beneficial?   n  Use  all  the  given  data  and  compare  results  and  staNsNcs   n  Embed  risk  in  the  PMB  as  discussed-­‐  not  sure  of  the  benefits   through  life   n  Only  in  understanding  what  risks  could  impact  the  PMB   n  Not  at  all  
  • 53.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   QuesNons  
  • 54.                                                                                                                                                                                  Copyright  @  2011.  All  rights  reserved   THANK  YOU   Jo  Langley   Joan.Langley@hiqsigma.com   Mob:  +44  (0)  7834  254294   Jos  Espouy   Jos.Espouy@hiqsigma.com   Mob:  +44  (0)  7765  255246     BMT  Hi-­‐Q  Sigma  Ltd   5  Riverside  Court   Lower  Bristol  Road   Bath,  BA2  3DZ   United  Kingdom   www.bmt-­‐hqs.com   Tel:      +44  (0)  1225  820980   Fax:    +44  (0)  1225  820981