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Planning And Evaluating Front
Office Operations
Unit - I
By: Priya Sinha
Lecturer- Front Office
NSU Jsr.
Tuesday, August 18, 2020
Session Objective:
• By the end of this session students will able to
understands:
• Introduction
• Forecasting techniques
• Establishing Room Rate
• Forecasting room availability
Introduction
• Every organisation, including hotels, have various targets
and goals which it strives to achieve.
• These objectives are pre-planned at the start of a period
and the actual results are evaluated at the end of the
period.
• Hotel planning, implementing the various services and
tasks, and assessing the operations of the hotel are the
responsibility of the hotel management.
Contd…..
• Planning and evaluation depends upon the
manager’s qualifications, experience, abilities
and knowledge of the establishment.
• The goals may be long term or short term in
nature.
• The data in the form of :
• (i) Statistics (iii) Information
• (ii) Reports
Contd……
• The relevant data collected by the manager’s
is evaluated and analyzed in the form of
report,charts,curves etc.
• It helps in future planning not only in front
office but in all other fields and departments.
• The accuracy in planning depends on the
collection of data, its evaluation, comparison
and manager’s ability.
Contd….
• It is clear that for planning front office
operation especially sale, room sale, double
occupancy, single occupancy,walk-in,no
shows,skippers,etc.the manager must have
the data’s for previous years,months,weeks or
days etc.
• The Comparison can be made in the form of
percentage,figures,graphs,curves,pie
charts,pictographs,line graphs etc.
7 Functions of Management
• Planning
• Organizing
• Coordinating
• Staffing
• Leading
• Controlling
• Evaluating
• Planning begins by examining 3 important front
office functions:
Establishing
Room
Rates/
Guest room
pricing
strategies
Forecasting
room
availability
Budgeting
for front
office
operations
Room Rate Categories
• Rack Rate
• CVGR Rates
• Group Rates
• Promotional rates/ BAR Rates
• Incentive
• Family
• Package
• TA’S Rate/ Internet
• Complimentary
Establishing the room rate/ Guest
room pricing strategies
Market Condition
approach
Rule of Thumb
approach
Hubbart
Formula
Approach
Market Condition Approach
• Under this very approach, management shall look at
comparable hotels in the geographical market, see
what they are charging for the same product, and
“charge only what the market will accept”.
• TIMS,Rate View,Phaser and STAR reports provide
information on competitors.
• Some drawbacks of this approach are that it does not
take into consideration the value of the property, and
what a strong sales effort may accomplish.
Rule Of Thumb Approach
• In this very approach, the rate of a room shall
be $ 1 for each $ 1,000 of construction and
furnishing cost per room, assuming a 70%
occupancy rate.
• This approach, however, fails to take into
consideration the inflation term, the
contribution of other facilities and services
towards the hotel’s desired profitablity, and
assumes a ceratin level of occupancy rate.
Hubbart Formula Approach
• The Hubbart Formula considers operating costs,
desired profits, and expected number of rooms to be
sold. It starts with desired profitability, adds income
taxes, then adds fixed charges and management fees,
followed by overhead expenses and direct operating
expenses.
• The Hubbart Formula is considered a bottom-up
approach to pricing rooms because its initial item—
profit—comes from the bottom line of a standard
income statement; the second item—income taxes—
is the second item from the bottom of the income
statement, and so on.
• The Eight Steps of the Hubbart Formula :
1. Calculate the hotel’s desired profit by
multiplying the desired rate of return (ROI) by
the owners’ investment.
2. Calculate pre-tax profits by dividing desired
profit (Step 1) minus the hotel’s tax rate.
3. Calculate fixed charges and management fees.
4. Calculate undistributed operating expenses.
5. Estimate non-room operated department
income or loss.
6. Calculate the required rooms department income. The sum
of pretax profits (Step 2), fixed charges and management fees
(Step 3), undistributed operating expenses (Step 4), and other
operated department losses less other operated department
income (Step 5) equals the required rooms department
income.
7. Determine the rooms department revenue. The required
rooms department income (Step 6), plus rooms department
direct expenses of payroll and related expenses, plus other
direct operating expenses, equals the required rooms
department revenue.
8. Calculate the average room rate by dividing rooms
department revenues (Step 7) by the expected number of
rooms to be sold
What is Forecast????
• It is a technique to estimate, based on
historical figures,expectations,trends,and or
experience, a certain value of an
uncontrollable variable for a certain future
period of time.
Forecasting Room Availability
• Forecasting room availability is forecasting the
number of rooms available for sale on any
future date.
• This type of forecasting helps manage the
reservation process, guides the front office
staff for an effective rooms management, and
can be used as an occupancy forecast, which is
further useful in attempting to schedule the
necessary number of employees for an
expected volume of business.
Contd….
• The following information is useful for FOM
for forecasting the lettable room’s availability:
The correct knowledge of the hotel and the
surrounding areas.
Any special events, happenings taking place during
the time are being forecasted.
The no. Of guaranteed and confirmed reservations
made for the dates under consideration and the
expected no. Of no-shows, last minute cancellation,
walk-ins, under stays, over stays, etc.
Profiles of the markets the hotel serves.
The occupancy history of the hotel for previous periods
which can be compared with the current situation and
periods.
If management has tied up with any marketing company
or franchised with any reputed chain as this will also help
in improving the volume of business.
Any discount or special tariff adopted by the
management.
Any aggressive selling techniques or change in marketing
network will also help in improving the volume of
business.
Any large group or conference booked to date
Change in the availability of lettable rooms in the city.
• To have the correct forecast, the following
daily occupancy data should be available:
Total expected arrivals
Actual Arrivals
Total walk ins
Total stayovers( the guest who were staying on
previous night and will stay for the current day as
well)
Total no-shows
Total under stays
Total check outs
Total overstays
Forecasting Rooms Revenue
Forecasted Annual Rooms Revenue =
Rooms Occupancy Average
Available Percentage Daily Rate
Rooms Available = Total Rooms X 365 Days
Forecasting Rooms Revenue Example
100 Room Hotel
100 x 365 days = 36,500 Rooms Available
75% Occupancy Percentage
.75
$50 Average Daily Rate
36,500 x .75 x $50 = $1,368,750
Types of Forecast
Short Term Forecast
•3 Days, 7 Days, 10 Days & 14 Days
Long Term Forecast
•30 Days,90 days & 12 Months
Annual Budget
Room Forecasting
Ten-Day Forecast
Done by FOM and Reservations Manager
House Count
Expected number of guests in the hotel
Divided into group and non-group
Three-Day Forecast
Updated with current information
Identifies changes in staffing needs
Forecasting Room Availability
The most important short-term planning function
Hotel Occupancy History
The past few months and last year at this time
Reservation Trends
How far in advance are reservations being made?
Scheduled Events
City-wide conventions; sporting events, etc.
Group Profiles
Pickup history
• These above-mentioned data help the front
office in conduct various daily operational
ratios such as:
• No-shows percentage = (number of no-show
rooms) / (number of rooms reserved)
• Walk-ins percentage = (number of walk-in
rooms) / (total number of rooms arrivals)
• Overstays percentage = (number of overstay
rooms) / (number of expected check-outs)
• Under stays percentage = (number of under
stay rooms) / (number of expected check-
outs)
Rooms Availability Formula
Total number of guestrooms
- Out of order rooms
- Stayovers
- Reservations
+ Reservations x no-show percentage
+ Understays
- Overstays
Number of Rooms Available for Sale
Rooms Availability Formula
Example
150 Guestrooms
- 5 Out of Order
- 45 Stayovers
- 50 Reservations
+ 10% No-show
+ 5 Understays
- 20 Overstays
40 Rooms Available for Sale
Sample Forecast Forms
Yearly Forecast (Annual Forecast) – It provides an
excellent starting point for developing shorter-
term forecasts.
• It helps the managers in determining reservation
space, planning staff leaves and preparing
budgets.
• The forecast is reviewed again on monthly basis
so as to get a clearer picture of the scenario. The
closer the forecast is, the more accurate it will be.
Ten Day Forecast
 It is prepared jointly by Front Office Manager and reservations
manager. The ten-day forecast usually consists of –
1. Daily forecasted occupancy figures including room arrivals,
departures, room sold and house count.
2. Group movement – includes group arrival and departure
details, rooms confirmed and may also include the rates
quoted.
3. Some hotels have a separate format for group forecast
report.
4. A comparison of previous period’s forecasted and actual
room counts and occupancy percentage.
Three Day Forecast
• A three day forecast is an updated report that
reflects a more current estimate of room
availability.
• It details any significant changes in the Ten
Day Forecast.
• The three day forecast help the management
to fine tune their staffing requirements and
adjust room availability information.
• The format of the report is same as the ten-
day forecast report barring the number of
days.
Room Count Considerations:-
Checklist for accurate room count consideration:
• 1. Check room rack against the folio bucket to catch skippers
and sleepers.
• 2. Check housekeeping reports against the room rack.
• 3. Check for due out, but still have balances on their folios.
• 4. Check reservations for any duplications.
• 5. Call the reservation system to make sure all cancellations were
transmitted.
• 6. Call the local Airport for a report on cancelled flights.
• 7. Check arrival dates on all reservation forms to be sure none
were misfiled.
• 8. Make counts of the rack and reservations. On the tight days a
count should be made at least three times a day.
Evaluating Front office Operations
• Without thoroughly evaluating the results of operations,
managers will not know whether the front office is attaining
planned goals. To evaluate the success of front office
operations, some important tools are as under:
1. Daily Operations Report
2. Occupancy Ratios
3. Rooms Revenue Analysis
4. Hotel Income Statement
5. Rooms Schedule
6. Rooms Division budget reports
7. Operating ratios
8. Ratio standards
Daily Operations Report
• Also Known as Managers Report, daily Report or Daily
Revenue report.
• It summarizes the hotel’s financial activities during a 24 hour
period.
• It provides a means of reconciling cash, bank accounts,
revenue and accounts receivable.
• Copies of DOR are generally distributed to all departments
and division managers in the hotel.
• It contains the information like occupancy summary, room
revenue analysis, revenue summary, complimentary rooms,
F&B analysis, Group analysis, market segments, Out of order
rooms, departures, arrivals.
Occupancy Ratios
• These ratios measure the success of front office in selling the
hotel’s primary product: guestrooms. The following rooms statistics
must be gathered to calculate basic occupancy ratios:
1. No. of rooms available for sale
2. No. of rooms sold
3. No. of guests
4. No. of guests per room
5. Net rooms revenue
OR
That can be computed from these data include occupancy %, Multiple
Occ%, ADR, REV PAR, Rev PAC, Avg rate per guest.
These ratios typically are calculated on a daily, weekly, monthly and
yearly basis.
With the help of these ratios FOM analyses the information to identify
trends, patterns or problems.
Room Revenue Analysis
• A room rate variance report lists those rooms that
have been sold at other than their rack rates.
• With this report F.O can review the use of various
special rates to determine whether staff has followed
all appropriate front office policies and procedures.
• To evaluate the sales effectiveness of the front office
staff is to generate a yield statistic.
• YIELD= Actual room Revenue/ Potential Room
Revenue.
Hotel Income Statement
• It Provides important financial information
about the results of hotel operations for a
given period of time.
• It is a consolidated income statement as it
presents a composite picture of all the hotel’s
financial operations.
• The amount of income generated by the
rooms division is determined by subtracting
payroll and related expenses and other
expenses from the amount of net revenue.
Room Schedule
• The hotel’s statement of income shows only
summary information.
• The separate departmental income
statements prepared by each revenue centre
provide more detail.
• The hotel accounting division, not the front
office accounting staff, generally prepares the
room schedule.
Room division Budget Reports
The hotel’s accounting division also prepares monthly budget
reports that compare actual revenue and expense figures with
budgeted amounts.
1. Operating Ratios:
• Operating ratios assist mangers in evaluating the success of front
office operations.
• Payroll and related expenses tends to be the largest single expense
item for the rooms division as well as the entire hotel.
• Operating ratios should be compared against proper standards-
budgeted percentages.
• Any significant differences should be highlighted and explained in
the remark section. O.R includes %of total hotel revenue, % of
departmental revenue, % of Departmental; expenses, % of total
hotel payroll and related expenses, % of change budget, per
available room, per occupied room.
Ratio Standards
• Operating ratios are meaningful only when
compared against criteria such as :
1. Planned ratio goals
2. Corresponding historical ratios
3. Industry averages
Factors underlying forecasting
premises
• Controllable Factors: Those that are under
control of the management:-
• Pricing
• Promotion
• Product characteristics
• Product mix
• Choice of customers
• Uncontrollable Factor: Environmental
elements over which the firm has little, if any,
direct control:-
• Economy, interest rates, inflation
• Public policy , Government regulation
• Political conditions
• Market factors, changing demographics
• Competitors actions
• Supplier actions
• Industry trends

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Planning and evaluating front office operations

  • 1. Planning And Evaluating Front Office Operations Unit - I By: Priya Sinha Lecturer- Front Office NSU Jsr. Tuesday, August 18, 2020
  • 2. Session Objective: • By the end of this session students will able to understands: • Introduction • Forecasting techniques • Establishing Room Rate • Forecasting room availability
  • 3. Introduction • Every organisation, including hotels, have various targets and goals which it strives to achieve. • These objectives are pre-planned at the start of a period and the actual results are evaluated at the end of the period. • Hotel planning, implementing the various services and tasks, and assessing the operations of the hotel are the responsibility of the hotel management.
  • 4. Contd….. • Planning and evaluation depends upon the manager’s qualifications, experience, abilities and knowledge of the establishment. • The goals may be long term or short term in nature. • The data in the form of : • (i) Statistics (iii) Information • (ii) Reports
  • 5. Contd…… • The relevant data collected by the manager’s is evaluated and analyzed in the form of report,charts,curves etc. • It helps in future planning not only in front office but in all other fields and departments. • The accuracy in planning depends on the collection of data, its evaluation, comparison and manager’s ability.
  • 6. Contd…. • It is clear that for planning front office operation especially sale, room sale, double occupancy, single occupancy,walk-in,no shows,skippers,etc.the manager must have the data’s for previous years,months,weeks or days etc. • The Comparison can be made in the form of percentage,figures,graphs,curves,pie charts,pictographs,line graphs etc.
  • 7. 7 Functions of Management • Planning • Organizing • Coordinating • Staffing • Leading • Controlling • Evaluating
  • 8.
  • 9. • Planning begins by examining 3 important front office functions: Establishing Room Rates/ Guest room pricing strategies Forecasting room availability Budgeting for front office operations
  • 10. Room Rate Categories • Rack Rate • CVGR Rates • Group Rates • Promotional rates/ BAR Rates • Incentive • Family • Package • TA’S Rate/ Internet • Complimentary
  • 11. Establishing the room rate/ Guest room pricing strategies Market Condition approach Rule of Thumb approach Hubbart Formula Approach
  • 12. Market Condition Approach • Under this very approach, management shall look at comparable hotels in the geographical market, see what they are charging for the same product, and “charge only what the market will accept”. • TIMS,Rate View,Phaser and STAR reports provide information on competitors. • Some drawbacks of this approach are that it does not take into consideration the value of the property, and what a strong sales effort may accomplish.
  • 13. Rule Of Thumb Approach • In this very approach, the rate of a room shall be $ 1 for each $ 1,000 of construction and furnishing cost per room, assuming a 70% occupancy rate. • This approach, however, fails to take into consideration the inflation term, the contribution of other facilities and services towards the hotel’s desired profitablity, and assumes a ceratin level of occupancy rate.
  • 14. Hubbart Formula Approach • The Hubbart Formula considers operating costs, desired profits, and expected number of rooms to be sold. It starts with desired profitability, adds income taxes, then adds fixed charges and management fees, followed by overhead expenses and direct operating expenses. • The Hubbart Formula is considered a bottom-up approach to pricing rooms because its initial item— profit—comes from the bottom line of a standard income statement; the second item—income taxes— is the second item from the bottom of the income statement, and so on.
  • 15. • The Eight Steps of the Hubbart Formula : 1. Calculate the hotel’s desired profit by multiplying the desired rate of return (ROI) by the owners’ investment. 2. Calculate pre-tax profits by dividing desired profit (Step 1) minus the hotel’s tax rate. 3. Calculate fixed charges and management fees. 4. Calculate undistributed operating expenses. 5. Estimate non-room operated department income or loss.
  • 16. 6. Calculate the required rooms department income. The sum of pretax profits (Step 2), fixed charges and management fees (Step 3), undistributed operating expenses (Step 4), and other operated department losses less other operated department income (Step 5) equals the required rooms department income. 7. Determine the rooms department revenue. The required rooms department income (Step 6), plus rooms department direct expenses of payroll and related expenses, plus other direct operating expenses, equals the required rooms department revenue. 8. Calculate the average room rate by dividing rooms department revenues (Step 7) by the expected number of rooms to be sold
  • 17. What is Forecast???? • It is a technique to estimate, based on historical figures,expectations,trends,and or experience, a certain value of an uncontrollable variable for a certain future period of time.
  • 18. Forecasting Room Availability • Forecasting room availability is forecasting the number of rooms available for sale on any future date. • This type of forecasting helps manage the reservation process, guides the front office staff for an effective rooms management, and can be used as an occupancy forecast, which is further useful in attempting to schedule the necessary number of employees for an expected volume of business.
  • 19. Contd…. • The following information is useful for FOM for forecasting the lettable room’s availability: The correct knowledge of the hotel and the surrounding areas. Any special events, happenings taking place during the time are being forecasted. The no. Of guaranteed and confirmed reservations made for the dates under consideration and the expected no. Of no-shows, last minute cancellation, walk-ins, under stays, over stays, etc.
  • 20. Profiles of the markets the hotel serves. The occupancy history of the hotel for previous periods which can be compared with the current situation and periods. If management has tied up with any marketing company or franchised with any reputed chain as this will also help in improving the volume of business. Any discount or special tariff adopted by the management. Any aggressive selling techniques or change in marketing network will also help in improving the volume of business. Any large group or conference booked to date Change in the availability of lettable rooms in the city.
  • 21. • To have the correct forecast, the following daily occupancy data should be available: Total expected arrivals Actual Arrivals Total walk ins Total stayovers( the guest who were staying on previous night and will stay for the current day as well) Total no-shows Total under stays Total check outs Total overstays
  • 22. Forecasting Rooms Revenue Forecasted Annual Rooms Revenue = Rooms Occupancy Average Available Percentage Daily Rate Rooms Available = Total Rooms X 365 Days
  • 23. Forecasting Rooms Revenue Example 100 Room Hotel 100 x 365 days = 36,500 Rooms Available 75% Occupancy Percentage .75 $50 Average Daily Rate 36,500 x .75 x $50 = $1,368,750
  • 24. Types of Forecast Short Term Forecast •3 Days, 7 Days, 10 Days & 14 Days Long Term Forecast •30 Days,90 days & 12 Months Annual Budget
  • 25. Room Forecasting Ten-Day Forecast Done by FOM and Reservations Manager House Count Expected number of guests in the hotel Divided into group and non-group Three-Day Forecast Updated with current information Identifies changes in staffing needs
  • 26. Forecasting Room Availability The most important short-term planning function Hotel Occupancy History The past few months and last year at this time Reservation Trends How far in advance are reservations being made? Scheduled Events City-wide conventions; sporting events, etc. Group Profiles Pickup history
  • 27. • These above-mentioned data help the front office in conduct various daily operational ratios such as: • No-shows percentage = (number of no-show rooms) / (number of rooms reserved) • Walk-ins percentage = (number of walk-in rooms) / (total number of rooms arrivals) • Overstays percentage = (number of overstay rooms) / (number of expected check-outs) • Under stays percentage = (number of under stay rooms) / (number of expected check- outs)
  • 28. Rooms Availability Formula Total number of guestrooms - Out of order rooms - Stayovers - Reservations + Reservations x no-show percentage + Understays - Overstays Number of Rooms Available for Sale
  • 29. Rooms Availability Formula Example 150 Guestrooms - 5 Out of Order - 45 Stayovers - 50 Reservations + 10% No-show + 5 Understays - 20 Overstays 40 Rooms Available for Sale
  • 30. Sample Forecast Forms Yearly Forecast (Annual Forecast) – It provides an excellent starting point for developing shorter- term forecasts. • It helps the managers in determining reservation space, planning staff leaves and preparing budgets. • The forecast is reviewed again on monthly basis so as to get a clearer picture of the scenario. The closer the forecast is, the more accurate it will be.
  • 31. Ten Day Forecast  It is prepared jointly by Front Office Manager and reservations manager. The ten-day forecast usually consists of – 1. Daily forecasted occupancy figures including room arrivals, departures, room sold and house count. 2. Group movement – includes group arrival and departure details, rooms confirmed and may also include the rates quoted. 3. Some hotels have a separate format for group forecast report. 4. A comparison of previous period’s forecasted and actual room counts and occupancy percentage.
  • 32. Three Day Forecast • A three day forecast is an updated report that reflects a more current estimate of room availability. • It details any significant changes in the Ten Day Forecast. • The three day forecast help the management to fine tune their staffing requirements and adjust room availability information. • The format of the report is same as the ten- day forecast report barring the number of days.
  • 33. Room Count Considerations:- Checklist for accurate room count consideration: • 1. Check room rack against the folio bucket to catch skippers and sleepers. • 2. Check housekeeping reports against the room rack. • 3. Check for due out, but still have balances on their folios. • 4. Check reservations for any duplications. • 5. Call the reservation system to make sure all cancellations were transmitted. • 6. Call the local Airport for a report on cancelled flights. • 7. Check arrival dates on all reservation forms to be sure none were misfiled. • 8. Make counts of the rack and reservations. On the tight days a count should be made at least three times a day.
  • 34. Evaluating Front office Operations • Without thoroughly evaluating the results of operations, managers will not know whether the front office is attaining planned goals. To evaluate the success of front office operations, some important tools are as under: 1. Daily Operations Report 2. Occupancy Ratios 3. Rooms Revenue Analysis 4. Hotel Income Statement 5. Rooms Schedule 6. Rooms Division budget reports 7. Operating ratios 8. Ratio standards
  • 35. Daily Operations Report • Also Known as Managers Report, daily Report or Daily Revenue report. • It summarizes the hotel’s financial activities during a 24 hour period. • It provides a means of reconciling cash, bank accounts, revenue and accounts receivable. • Copies of DOR are generally distributed to all departments and division managers in the hotel. • It contains the information like occupancy summary, room revenue analysis, revenue summary, complimentary rooms, F&B analysis, Group analysis, market segments, Out of order rooms, departures, arrivals.
  • 36. Occupancy Ratios • These ratios measure the success of front office in selling the hotel’s primary product: guestrooms. The following rooms statistics must be gathered to calculate basic occupancy ratios: 1. No. of rooms available for sale 2. No. of rooms sold 3. No. of guests 4. No. of guests per room 5. Net rooms revenue OR That can be computed from these data include occupancy %, Multiple Occ%, ADR, REV PAR, Rev PAC, Avg rate per guest. These ratios typically are calculated on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis. With the help of these ratios FOM analyses the information to identify trends, patterns or problems.
  • 37. Room Revenue Analysis • A room rate variance report lists those rooms that have been sold at other than their rack rates. • With this report F.O can review the use of various special rates to determine whether staff has followed all appropriate front office policies and procedures. • To evaluate the sales effectiveness of the front office staff is to generate a yield statistic. • YIELD= Actual room Revenue/ Potential Room Revenue.
  • 38. Hotel Income Statement • It Provides important financial information about the results of hotel operations for a given period of time. • It is a consolidated income statement as it presents a composite picture of all the hotel’s financial operations. • The amount of income generated by the rooms division is determined by subtracting payroll and related expenses and other expenses from the amount of net revenue.
  • 39. Room Schedule • The hotel’s statement of income shows only summary information. • The separate departmental income statements prepared by each revenue centre provide more detail. • The hotel accounting division, not the front office accounting staff, generally prepares the room schedule.
  • 40. Room division Budget Reports The hotel’s accounting division also prepares monthly budget reports that compare actual revenue and expense figures with budgeted amounts. 1. Operating Ratios: • Operating ratios assist mangers in evaluating the success of front office operations. • Payroll and related expenses tends to be the largest single expense item for the rooms division as well as the entire hotel. • Operating ratios should be compared against proper standards- budgeted percentages. • Any significant differences should be highlighted and explained in the remark section. O.R includes %of total hotel revenue, % of departmental revenue, % of Departmental; expenses, % of total hotel payroll and related expenses, % of change budget, per available room, per occupied room.
  • 41. Ratio Standards • Operating ratios are meaningful only when compared against criteria such as : 1. Planned ratio goals 2. Corresponding historical ratios 3. Industry averages
  • 42. Factors underlying forecasting premises • Controllable Factors: Those that are under control of the management:- • Pricing • Promotion • Product characteristics • Product mix • Choice of customers
  • 43. • Uncontrollable Factor: Environmental elements over which the firm has little, if any, direct control:- • Economy, interest rates, inflation • Public policy , Government regulation • Political conditions • Market factors, changing demographics • Competitors actions • Supplier actions • Industry trends