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柏瑞週報 20201113
1.
13 November 2020
2.
3.
PAGE 2 • (Pfizer) BioNTech 10 12
0.8815% 10 13 -0.507% • 0.34% ESG 0.15% • 0.89% 482 • 0.63% 1.44% Bloomberg 2020/11/12 -0.11 -0.36 0.87 -0.44 0.74 0.39 0.41 0.68 0.48 1.74 1.05 1.65 1.88 1.58 1.72 3.31 -0.75 -0.58 -0.34 -0.20 -0.15 -0.15 -0.02 0.26 0.43 0.46 0.62 0.63 0.89 1.13 1.16 1.44 ESG ( ) - - % %
4.
PAGE 3 • • S&P
500 0.76% • 600 4.91% DAX 3.86% • 225 5.87% (YAMAHA Motors) • 300 0.48% 4.88% • 0.46% Bloomberg 2020/11/12 0.75 1.77 3.38 0.08 7.09 3.95 1.60 5.15 2.05 -0.65 7.92 6.81 3.26 6.50 8.33 7.30 0.46 0.48 0.62 0.76 0.96 1.36 1.68 1.74 2.35 3.86 4.50 4.88 4.91 5.78 5.87 7.72 BAML 300 MSCI S&P 500 H MSCI MSCI BOVESPA DAX MSCI SENSEX 600 RTS Nikkei 225 MSCI % %
5.
PAGE 4 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 • 12
WTI 41.12 • 11 6 (EIA) 430 ( ) 300 -2.39 -1.01 0.16 4.95 7.62 2.92 4.02 5.10 2.14 10.81 4.29 4.34 -3.74 -3.45 -2.27 -0.24 0.40 1.19 1.71 2.41 2.59 3.78 6.01 6.35 LME LME LME LME CRB % %
6.
PAGE 5 • 445
325 3 15 65 • 102 54 38 25 BofA Global Research EPFR 2020/11/12 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
7.
8.
PAGE 7 • (Pfizer) BioNTech 90% 1570 12 Moderna 12 20 6 • (McConnell) (Pelosi) (5000
) (2.4 ) (1.9 ) • Biden 270 Trump 12 14 12 23 1 6 2 1 5 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ( 2) ( 1) S&P 500
9.
PAGE 8 Bloomberg
2020/11/12 ( 2) ( 1) • ( 1) • Stericycle (Ford) 10 • S&P 500 89% 71% 9% 19% EPS Roku McDonald’s SoftBank Group Cisco Disney Applied Materials Datadog Pinduoduo Beyond Meat Norwegian Cruise Line • 10 64 6.9% 4 ( 2) 61.7 61.4%
10.
PAGE 9 • 30 10% 120 1/4 (Pfizer) 3 •
ECB (ECB) (PEPP) (TLTROs) • (Amazon) • 9 4.2% 1 6,602 ( 2) 7 75 ECB Bloomberg 2020/11/12 ECDC 2020/11/20 ( 2) (%) ( 1)
11.
PAGE 10 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 •
CPI 1% 10 (CPI) 0.5%( 1) 1% 2009 10 19 (PPI) 2.1% • 10 1.42 13.7% 10 6,898 8,000 • 10 (CPI) 7.61%( 2) 7.27% 7.30% 6% • Murat Uysal Naci Agbal Agbal Berat Albayrak Albayrak ( 1) (%) ( 2) CPI (%)
12.
13.
PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/11/12 /
/ 11/16 11 13.2 10.5 11/16 9 ( ) - 4.0% 11/16 3 GDP( ) 19.5% -28.1% 11/16 10 ( ) 6.6% 6.9% 11/17 10 ( ) 0.5% 1.9% 11/17 10 ( ) 0.9% -0.6% 11/18 10 CPI( ) - -0.3% 11/18 0.50% 0.50% 11/19 10 0.5% 0.7% 11/19 SARB 3.50% 3.50% 11/19 1 - 10.25% 11/19 7 4.00% 4.00% 11/19 BSP 2.250% 2.250% 11/20 11 - -15.5 11/20 11 PMI( ) - 48.7 11/20 10 CPI( ) -0.4% 0.0% 11/20 1 LPR 3.85% 3.85%
14.
PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE
(Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst * ICE / / 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 375 (11/12) 5 : 358 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.35 (11/12) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 1.99 (11/12) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 115 (11/12) 5 : 129
15.
PAGE 14 Bloomberg (Yield
to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.60 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 482 (11/12) 5 : 479 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.57 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 435 (11/12) 5 : 449
16.
PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P.
Morgan - (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.75 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 401 (11/12) 5 : 397 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.64 (11/12) 100 300 500 700 900 1,100 1,300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 736 (11/12) 5 : 502
17.
PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P.
Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.81 (11/12) 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 390 (11/12) 5 : 370 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.38 (11/12) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 326 (11/12) 5 : 319
18.
PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P.
Morgan (JACI) (Yield to Maturity) Option Adjusted Spread Z-Spread to Worst / / 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 6.82 (11/12) 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 609 (11/12) 5 : 578 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.89 (11/12) 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 245 (11/12) 5 : 217
19.
PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 /
/ 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 20.3 (11/12) 5 : 16.3 8 13 18 23 28 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.8 (11/12) 5 : 17.4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.4 (11/12) 5 : 14.7 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 21.4 (11/12) 5 : 16.4
20.
PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 /
/ 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 14.6 (11/12) 5 : 12.2 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 21.9 (11/12) 5 : 17.7 5 10 15 20 25 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.1 (11/12) 5 : 12.4
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PAGE 20 Bloomberg / / 0 20 40 60 80 100 2008
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 25.35 (11/12) 5 : 17.53 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 44.2 (11/12) 5 : 61.7 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 55.9 (11/12) 5 : 64.1 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 352 (11/12) 5 : 382
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PAGE 21 Bloomberg * 50%
+50% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% '15/11/12 '16/11/12 '17/11/12 '18/11/12 '19/11/12 '20/11/12 5 1 34.3% 0.5% 28.0% 0.1% 5 1 40.0% 0.7% 30.3% 0.1% 5 1 37.1% 0.6% 29.2% 0.1% 5 1 33.6% 0.7% 25.1% 0.1%
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