柏瑞週報 20200227

1. 27 February
2020

3. PAGE 2
•
10
23 1.3371%
3 10
10 -0.5050%
•
1.16%
81 1.03%
61 495.6
• 0.41%
0.01%
0.41%
1.08%
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
-0.44
-0.22
-2.15
-0.51
-0.01
0.96
0.13
0.84
1.50
1.34
1.48
1.21
1.72
1.67
1.65
2.44
-1.27
-1.16
-1.08
-1.03
-0.59
-0.41
-0.40
0.01
0.36
0.41
0.45
0.52
0.66
0.84
0.92
1.65
-
-
ESG ( )
% %

4. PAGE 3
•
•
(CDC)
S&P 500 5
7.97%
•
600 6.75% DAX
7.35%
•
300
0.54%
225 4.16%
•
1.26%
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
-10.69
-12.55
-5.43
-5.91
-5.84
-4.49
-10.25
-6.80
-8.66
-5.49
-5.88
-4.32
-4.14
-5.65
-0.56
1.73
-9.27
-8.86
-7.97
-7.35
-6.91
-6.75
-6.13
-5.47
-5.24
-4.98
-4.16
-3.73
-3.47
-2.77
-1.26
0.54
BOVESPA
MSCI
S&P 500
DAX
MSCI
600
MSCI
MSCI
RTS
MSCI
Nikkei 225
H
SENSEX
BAML
300
% %

5. PAGE 4
•
OPEC
• 2 21
45.2 ( )
260
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
-11.96
-10.08
-5.39
-5.80
-5.55
-12.60
-4.33
-3.09
-2.33
-4.32
-4.77
4.40
-9.62
-8.56
-5.25
-4.42
-4.28
-3.85
-2.63
-2.18
-1.81
-1.73
-1.40
1.81
CRB
LME
LME
LME
LME
% %

7. PAGE 6
( 1) S&P500
( 2) Markit PMI
•
(CDC)
( 1)
Trump Kudlow
60
•
• IHS Markit 2
PMI 49.6 50.8
49.4( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/26

8. PAGE 7
( 1)
( 2)
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
•
1.16%( 1)
80
•
JPMorgan
Leveraged Finance Conference
• Q4 Bloomberg
9 S&P 500 4
73%
Home Depot Macy’s Dell
HP Salesforce AT&T
• 2
130.4 130.7( 2)

9. PAGE 8
• 2 Markit PMI
47.9 49.1( 1) PMI
2 Markit
PMI 1 52.5 52.8
2
• 4
Bloomberg 7
600 4 6
PSP Swiss Allianz Avast
Galapagos AXA
•
11
GDP 3
1
• 2 Markit PMI
48.8 47.6 ( 2)
PMI 51
46.7 50
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
( 1) Markit PMI
( 2) Markit PMI

10. PAGE 9
( 1)
( 2) GDP
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
•
2 28
•
(1)
5,000 (2)
25 2.5% (3) 3/1~5/31
3%
1% (4) 3,500
(5)
• Trump
Modi
Trump
30
• 2019 4 GDP
0.5% 0.4% 2019
-0.1% 2009
2018 2%
2020 GDP 0.5%~1.5%

12. PAGE 11
Bloomberg 2020/2/26
/ /
3/3 2 CPI( ) 1.2% 1.1%
3/3 1 - 7.4%
3/3 RBA - 0.75%
3/4 2 ADP 178k 291k
3/4 2 ISM 55.4 55.5
3/4 2 PMI 48.7 51.8
3/4 2 Markit PMI - 56.3
3/4 4 GDP( ) 1.6% 1.2%
3/4 2 Markit PMI - 52.2
3/4 1.75% 1.75%
3/5 1 ( ) - -
3/5 1 -0.4% 1.8%
3/6 2 188k 225k
3/6 2 3.5% 3.6%
3/6 1 ( ) - -2.1%
3/6 1 ( ) - 0.0%
3/9 4 GDP ( ) - -1.6%

13. PAGE 12
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.45 (2/26)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 108.0 (2/26) 5 : 126.0
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.95 (2/26)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 365.67 (2/26) 5 : 352.3

14. PAGE 13
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.02 (2/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 495.6 (2/26) 5 : 457.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.67 (2/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 425.0 (2/26) 5 : 433.5

15. PAGE 14
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.47 (2/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 358.0 (2/26) 5 : 374.8
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 6.91 (2/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 563.8 (2/26) 5 : 515.5

16. PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.77 (2/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 332.56 (2/26) 5 : 345.7
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.57 (2/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 330.37 (2/26) 5 : 335.5

17. PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 8.04 (2/26)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 675.0 (2/26) 5 : 555.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.97 (2/26)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 268.69 (2/26) 5 : 256.9

18. PAGE 17
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 16.6 (2/26) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.8 (2/26) 5 : 17.2
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 14.6 (2/26) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 18.4 (2/26) 5 : 17.0

19. PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.3 (2/26) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.0 (2/26) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 20.8 (2/26) 5 : 18.5
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 11.4 (2/26) 5 : 12.3

20. PAGE 19
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 27.56 (2/26) 5 : 15.06
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 87.0 (2/26) 5 : 64.7
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 58.6 (2/26) 5 : 66.6
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 344.2 (2/26) 5 : 364.8

21. PAGE 20
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/26 '16/2/26 '17/2/26 '18/2/26 '19/2/26 '20/2/26
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/2/26 '16/2/26 '17/2/26 '18/2/26 '19/2/26 '20/2/26
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/2/26 '16/2/26 '17/2/26 '18/2/26 '19/2/26 '20/2/26
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/2/26 '16/2/26 '17/2/26 '18/2/26 '19/2/26 '20/2/26
5 1
33.7% -1.3%
28.4% 0.0%
5 1
31.4% -1.0%
30.9% 0.1%
5 1
32.6% -1.1%
29.7% 0.1%
5 1
29.1% -0.2%
26.0% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )

22. PAGE 21
TR109044
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898