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10 January
2020
PAGE 2
•
10 1.8%
10
1.8545%
•
0.25%
0.11% 415.3
•
0.15%
0.44%
0.38%
0.18%
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
2.71
0.44
-0.53
0.48
0.84
2.28
0.01
1.96
1.90
0.62
0.91
1.00
1.49
2.28
2.21
-0.18
-0.14
-0.08
0.00
0.07
0.11
0.11
0.15
0.25
0.30
0.31
0.38
0.44
0.61
0.65
-
-
% %
PAGE 3
•
ADP
PMI
S&P 500 0.52%
•
600 0.02%
• 300
300 0.29%
• 225
0.35%
•
0.14%
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
6.20
4.48
2.66
2.38
8.39
3.26
7.45
2.10
4.24
6.90
1.32
4.42
7.82
2.97
8.30
9.95
-2.23
-2.21
-1.07
-0.42
-0.35
-0.02
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.29
0.35
0.52
0.54
0.82
1.67
3.41
MSCI
BOVESPA
SENSEX
H
600
MSCI
BAML
MSCI
300
Nikkei 225
S&P 500
MSCI
DAX
MSCI
RTS
% %
PAGE 4
•
• 1 3
116.4 ( ) 325
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
0.91
2.00
5.15
1.74
5.58
1.32
1.73
2.65
7.56
6.21
8.12
6.16
-2.65
-2.11
-1.33
-1.33
-1.23
-1.06
-0.13
-0.06
0.36
1.52
2.05
2.90
LME
CRB
LME
LME
LME
% %
PAGE 5
• 5 48
17 17
19
• 232
141 13
28
Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/01/08
Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
PAGE 7
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
( 1) ISM
( 2) ISM
• Trump
Kelly Craft
Trump
• 12 ISM
47.2( 1)
8
737
MAX
• 12 ISM
55( 2)
4
PAGE 8
( 1)
( 2) ( )
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
•
( 1)
•
Transocean 2020
CCC 7.5
30
• 1 4
21.4 ( 2)
• 11
8.2 431 2016 10
0.7 2086
13.7 9.2
264 Trump
PAGE 9
• 12
1.3%( 1) 11 1% 8
0.2% -3.2%
CPI 1.3% 2%
• 11
1.3% 7 0.2%
11
1% 2019 9%
•
1 31 11
• 12 Markit PMI
48.4( 2) 8
PMI 49.4
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
( 2)
( 1) Markit PMI
PAGE 10
• 12 CPI
4.5% ( 1) 4.7% PPI
0.5% 5
CPI
11 3.8%
5.6%
• 12 PMI
52.5 53.2
• 11
1.7%( 2)
2.4%
1.3%
•
8400
7%
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
( 2)
( 1) PMI
PAGE 12
Bloomberg 2020/01/09
/ /
01/10 160k 266k
01/10 5.80% 5.90%
01/10 ( ) 0.10% 0.40%
01/10 IBGE IPCA( ) 1.08% 0.51%
01/10 ( ) 0.40% 0.00%
01/10 CPI( ) -- 3.00%
01/10 ( ) 0.00% 0.10%
01/14 CPI( ) 0.20% 0.30%
01/14 ¥1424.8b ¥1816.8b
01/15 MBA -- 13.50%
01/15 CPI( ) 1.40% 1.40%
01/15 ( ) 3.50% 4.20%
01/15 CPI( ) 1.50% 1.50%
01/15 CPI( ) 1.70% 1.70%
01/16 SARB 6.50% 6.50%
01/16 -- 214k
01/16 PPI 0.90% 0.10%
PAGE 13
Bloomberg ICE * ICE
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)*
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 2.83 (1/9)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 96.0 (1/9) 5 : 126.9
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 4.93 (1/9)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 314.67 (1/9) 5 : 354.9
PAGE 14
Bloomberg
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.58 (1/9)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 415.3 (1/9) 5 : 459.6
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 5.11 (1/9)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 331.0 (1/9) 5 : 436.7
PAGE 15
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan -
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 3.41 (1/9)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 307.0 (1/9) 5 : 376.1
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 7.00 (1/9)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 521.8 (1/9) 5 : 516.4
PAGE 16
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.90 (1/9)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 293.95 (1/9) 5 : 347.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.88 (1/9)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 308.82 (1/9) 5 : 337.1
PAGE 17
Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI)
(%) (bp)
(%) (bp)
/ / 本益比 風險
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
: 7.75 (1/9)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 597.0 (1/9) 5 : 561.4
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 4.32 (1/9)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 252.82 (1/9) 5 : 257.5
PAGE 18
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 500
600 225
/ / 本益比 風險
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 17.2 (1/9) 5 : 16.2
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 18.6 (1/9) 5 : 17.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 15.1 (1/9) 5 : 14.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 17.7 (1/9) 5 : 17.0
PAGE 19
Bloomberg 12
MSCI 300
SENSEX BOVESPA
/ / 本益比 風險
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 13.1 (1/9) 5 : 12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.3 (1/9) 5 : 12.7
5
10
15
20
25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 20.5 (1/9) 5 : 18.4
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.5 (1/9) 5 : 12.3
PAGE 20
Bloomberg
VIX MOVE
CDX
/ / 本益比 風險
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
: 12.54 (1/9) 5 : 15.10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
: 57.7 (1/9) 5 : 65.4
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
: 61.2 (1/9) 5 : 67.0
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2012
: 276.7 (1/9) 5 : 366.3
PAGE 21
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
'15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
'15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9
5 1
36.8% 0.1%
28.7% 0.0%
5 1
34.3% 0.1%
31.0% 0.1%
5 1
35.6% 0.1%
29.9% 0.1%
5 1
28.7% 0.0%
26.1% 0.1%
Bloomberg
* 50% +50%
5 ( ) 5 ( )
* 5 ( ) 5 ( )
PAGE 22
TR109007
PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited
•
•
•
( )
•
108 001
104 144 10 (02)2516-7883
407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168
802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898

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柏瑞週報 20200110

  • 2.
  • 3. PAGE 2 • 10 1.8% 10 1.8545% • 0.25% 0.11% 415.3 • 0.15% 0.44% 0.38% 0.18% Bloomberg 2020/01/09 2.71 0.44 -0.53 0.48 0.84 2.28 0.01 1.96 1.90 0.62 0.91 1.00 1.49 2.28 2.21 -0.18 -0.14 -0.08 0.00 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.31 0.38 0.44 0.61 0.65 - - % %
  • 4. PAGE 3 • ADP PMI S&P 500 0.52% • 600 0.02% • 300 300 0.29% • 225 0.35% • 0.14% Bloomberg 2020/01/09 6.20 4.48 2.66 2.38 8.39 3.26 7.45 2.10 4.24 6.90 1.32 4.42 7.82 2.97 8.30 9.95 -2.23 -2.21 -1.07 -0.42 -0.35 -0.02 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.29 0.35 0.52 0.54 0.82 1.67 3.41 MSCI BOVESPA SENSEX H 600 MSCI BAML MSCI 300 Nikkei 225 S&P 500 MSCI DAX MSCI RTS % %
  • 5. PAGE 4 • • 1 3 116.4 ( ) 325 Bloomberg 2020/01/09 0.91 2.00 5.15 1.74 5.58 1.32 1.73 2.65 7.56 6.21 8.12 6.16 -2.65 -2.11 -1.33 -1.33 -1.23 -1.06 -0.13 -0.06 0.36 1.52 2.05 2.90 LME CRB LME LME LME % %
  • 6. PAGE 5 • 5 48 17 17 19 • 232 141 13 28 Bank of America Merrill Lynch EPFR 2020/01/08 Weekly FICC flows as % AUM
  • 7.
  • 8. PAGE 7 Bloomberg 2020/01/09 ( 1) ISM ( 2) ISM • Trump Kelly Craft Trump • 12 ISM 47.2( 1) 8 737 MAX • 12 ISM 55( 2) 4
  • 9. PAGE 8 ( 1) ( 2) ( ) Bloomberg 2020/01/09 • ( 1) • Transocean 2020 CCC 7.5 30 • 1 4 21.4 ( 2) • 11 8.2 431 2016 10 0.7 2086 13.7 9.2 264 Trump
  • 10. PAGE 9 • 12 1.3%( 1) 11 1% 8 0.2% -3.2% CPI 1.3% 2% • 11 1.3% 7 0.2% 11 1% 2019 9% • 1 31 11 • 12 Markit PMI 48.4( 2) 8 PMI 49.4 Bloomberg 2020/01/09 ( 2) ( 1) Markit PMI
  • 11. PAGE 10 • 12 CPI 4.5% ( 1) 4.7% PPI 0.5% 5 CPI 11 3.8% 5.6% • 12 PMI 52.5 53.2 • 11 1.7%( 2) 2.4% 1.3% • 8400 7% Bloomberg 2020/01/09 ( 2) ( 1) PMI
  • 12.
  • 13. PAGE 12 Bloomberg 2020/01/09 / / 01/10 160k 266k 01/10 5.80% 5.90% 01/10 ( ) 0.10% 0.40% 01/10 IBGE IPCA( ) 1.08% 0.51% 01/10 ( ) 0.40% 0.00% 01/10 CPI( ) -- 3.00% 01/10 ( ) 0.00% 0.10% 01/14 CPI( ) 0.20% 0.30% 01/14 ¥1424.8b ¥1816.8b 01/15 MBA -- 13.50% 01/15 CPI( ) 1.40% 1.40% 01/15 ( ) 3.50% 4.20% 01/15 CPI( ) 1.50% 1.50% 01/15 CPI( ) 1.70% 1.70% 01/16 SARB 6.50% 6.50% 01/16 -- 214k 01/16 PPI 0.90% 0.10%
  • 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg ICE * ICE (%) (bp) (%) (bp)* / / 本益比 風險 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 2.83 (1/9) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 96.0 (1/9) 5 : 126.9 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 4.93 (1/9) 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 314.67 (1/9) 5 : 354.9
  • 15. PAGE 14 Bloomberg (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.58 (1/9) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 415.3 (1/9) 5 : 459.6 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 5.11 (1/9) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 331.0 (1/9) 5 : 436.7
  • 16. PAGE 15 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan - (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 3.41 (1/9) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 307.0 (1/9) 5 : 376.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 7.00 (1/9) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 521.8 (1/9) 5 : 516.4
  • 17. PAGE 16 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (EMBIG) J.P. Morgan (CEMBI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.90 (1/9) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 293.95 (1/9) 5 : 347.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.88 (1/9) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 308.82 (1/9) 5 : 337.1
  • 18. PAGE 17 Bloomberg J.P. Morgan (JACI) (%) (bp) (%) (bp) / / 本益比 風險 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 : 7.75 (1/9) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 597.0 (1/9) 5 : 561.4 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 4.32 (1/9) 0 100 200 300 400 500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 252.82 (1/9) 5 : 257.5
  • 19. PAGE 18 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 500 600 225 / / 本益比 風險 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 17.2 (1/9) 5 : 16.2 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 18.6 (1/9) 5 : 17.1 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 15.1 (1/9) 5 : 14.9 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 17.7 (1/9) 5 : 17.0
  • 20. PAGE 19 Bloomberg 12 MSCI 300 SENSEX BOVESPA / / 本益比 風險 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 13.1 (1/9) 5 : 12.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.3 (1/9) 5 : 12.7 5 10 15 20 25 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 20.5 (1/9) 5 : 18.4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.5 (1/9) 5 : 12.3
  • 21. PAGE 20 Bloomberg VIX MOVE CDX / / 本益比 風險 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 : 12.54 (1/9) 5 : 15.10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 : 57.7 (1/9) 5 : 65.4 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 : 61.2 (1/9) 5 : 67.0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 2012 : 276.7 (1/9) 5 : 366.3
  • 22. PAGE 21 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% '15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% '15/1/9 '16/1/9 '17/1/9 '18/1/9 '19/1/9 '20/1/9 5 1 36.8% 0.1% 28.7% 0.0% 5 1 34.3% 0.1% 31.0% 0.1% 5 1 35.6% 0.1% 29.9% 0.1% 5 1 28.7% 0.0% 26.1% 0.1% Bloomberg * 50% +50% 5 ( ) 5 ( ) * 5 ( ) 5 ( )
  • 23. PAGE 22 TR109007 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898