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Post-Brexit, Europeans More
Positive About the EU, But Want
Own Referendum on Membership
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes July 2017
July 14, 2017 2
Pew Research Center
• Established 1996
• Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations
• Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
• Research topics:
U.S. politics
Media and the news
Social trends
Religion
Internet and technology
Science
Hispanics
Global public opinion and migration
• www.pewresearch.org
July 14, 2017 3
Methodology
• Results of public survey by phone and in person of 9,935 respondents
conducted March 2 to April 17, 2017 in 10 European Union countries
• These 10 European Union member states account for roughly 80% of the EU
population and 84% of the EU economy.
• The margin of error ranges from 3.7% to 5.2%
OVERVIEW
July 14, 2017 4
July 14, 2017 5
European Views of Current Economy Diverge Broadly
The current economic situation in our country is …
38%
40
12
13
15
31
45
56
71
78
83
98
51
49
58%
58
87
86
84
64
51
42
28
21
15
2
47
46
Canada
U.S.
Netherlands
Germany
Sweden
Poland
UK
Hungary
Spain
France
Italy
Greece
MEDIAN
Russia
GoodBadNorth America
Europe
July 14, 2017 6
Increase in Favorability of EU in Many Countries Since Last Year
Favorable view of EU
July 14, 2017 7
More Positive View of the EU Among People Who Are Happy
With Their Country’s Economy
Favorable view of EU among those who say the current economic situation in their country is …
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.
Little Support for Leaving EU, but Many Want Their Own
Referendum on Membership
July 14, 2017 8
36%
34
22
22
18
13
13
11
11
58%
57
61
53
42
44
65
50
51
Greece
Italy
France
Sweden
Netherlands
Hungary
Spain
Germany
Poland
Our country should leave the EU Support holding a national referendum on our country's EU membership
July 14, 2017
9
Southern Europeans Strongly Believe Germany Has Too
Much Influence Over EU Decisions
89%
68
68
54
49
46
42
21
20
49
10
5%
24
14
28
36
42
52
72
72
36
60
5%
4
10
6
8
3
5
4
2
5
26
Greece
Spain
Italy
Poland
Hungary
UK
France
Netherlands
Sweden
MEDIAN
Germany
Too much About the right amount Too little
Germany has __ influence when it comes to decision-making in the EU
NATIONAL VIEWS OF THE EU AND ITS RECORD
July 14, 2017 10
July 14, 2017
11
19%
30
28
33
33
35
38
44
40
65
34
74%
68
67
65
64
62
57
56
54
34
63
Poland
Germany
Hungary
Sweden
Netherlands
Spain
Italy
France
UK
Greece
MEDIAN
FavorableUnfavorable
More Than Half the Public Holds a Positive View of the EU,
Except in Greece
Views of EU
July 14, 2017 12
Note: Statistically significant differences in bold.
18-29 30-49 50+
Youngest-oldest
gap
% % %
UK 76 58 43 +33
Netherlands 77 73 54 +23
France 73 53 51 +22
Hungary 81 67 63 +18
Italy 67 61 52 +15
Greece 45 35 30 +15
Germany 75 70 65 +10
Sweden 69 62 65 +4
Spain 64 62 61 +3
Poland 73 79 71 +2
Younger Adults More Likely Than Older Ones to Favor EU
Favorable view of EU
July 14, 2017 13
Left Generally More Positive Toward the EU Than the Right
Note: Statistically significant differences in bold.
Favorable view of EU
July 14, 2017 14
Europeans Divided on EU’s Handling of Economic Issues
85%
66
63
52
46
38
36
28
25
46
12%
23
35
38
42
54
47
61
58
42
Greece
Italy
France
Spain
Sweden
Netherlands
Hungary
Germany
Poland
MEDIAN
ApproveDisapprove
Do you __ of the way the European Union is dealing with European economic issues?
July 14, 2017 15
Many Europeans Disapprove of Brussels’ Management of
the Refugee Issue
90%
80
78
65
66
67
65
59
52
66
8%
12
18
23
25
29
32
33
43
25
Greece
Italy
Sweden
Poland
Hungary
Spain
France
Germany
Netherlands
MEDIAN
ApproveDisapprove
Do you __ of the way the European Union is dealing with the refugee issue?
THE POST-BREXIT MINDSET
July 14, 2017 16
July 14, 2017 17
Most Say Brexit Will Be Bad for EU
59%
51
71
74
78
80
67
68
66
86
70
36%
26
18
16
14
14
12
11
8
7
14
France
Italy
UK
Germany
Spain
Netherlands
Hungary
Greece
Poland
Sweden
MEDIAN
Good thingBad thing
The UK leaving the EU will be a __ for the EU
July 14, 2017 18
Many Europeans Think Brexit Will Be Bad for UK
31%
48
41
62
41
43
68
73
70
80
55
46%
44
36
34
30
27
25
23
22
14
29
Greece
UK
Italy
France
Hungary
Poland
Sweden
Netherlands
Spain
Germany
MEDIAN
Good thingBad thing
The UK leaving the EU will be a __ for the UK
July 14, 2017 19
Few in Continental Europe Favor Their Country Leaving EU
11%
13
11
18
13
22
22
36
34
18
88%
84
82
80
77
76
74
58
56
77
Germany
Spain
Poland
Netherlands
Hungary
France
Sweden
Greece
Italy
MEDIAN
Stay in the EULeave the EU
Our country should …
July 14, 2017 20
Many Europeans Support Holding a Referendum on Their
Country’s EU Status
28%
37
37
34
43
37
43
45
54
37
65%
61
58
57
53
51
50
44
42
53
Spain
France
Greece
Italy
Sweden
Poland
Germany
Hungary
Netherlands
MEDIAN
SupportOppose
Would __ holding a national referendum on our country’s European Union membership
July 14, 2017 21
Many EU Publics Want Their Governments to Decide on
Future Trade Agreements
Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown.
Do you think our government should make decisions about international trade agreements for our
country or should the EU make decisions about this issue?
The EU Our government
July 14, 2017 22
www.pewresearch.org
On Migration of EU Citizens, Most EU Publics Want
Decisions Made by Their National Governments
Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown.
Do you think our government should make decisions about the migration of EU citizens into our
country or should the EU make decisions about this issue?
The EU Our government
July 14, 2017 23
On Migration of Non-EU Citizens, Most EU Publics Want
Decisions Made by Their National Governments
Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown.
Do you think our government should make decisions about migration of people who are not EU
citizens into our country or should the EU make decisions about this issue?
The EU Our government
July 14, 2017 24
UK: Generation Gap, Partisan Divide on EU Issues
Favorable view of EU
Leaving the EU will be
good for the UK
Germany has too much
influence when it comes to
decision-making in the EU
% % %
TOTAL 54 44 46
Male 53 48 48
Female 55 40 44
Conservatives 51 57 53
Labour 74 28 33
Liberal Democrats 75 29 36
UKIP 31 74 57
18-29 76 25 34
30-49 58 39 41
50+ 43 54 55
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q12f, Q48b, Q49.
July 14, 2017 25
In France: Young Favor EU, Those Who Favor the National
Front Back a Referendum on EU Membership
Favorable view of EU
Would support holding a
referendum on our
country’s EU membership
Our govt. should make
decisions about migration of
non-EU citizens into our country
% % %
TOTAL 56 61 75
Male 58 57 73
Female 53 65 77
En Marche 72 57 71
Republican 69 59 75
Socialist 83 54 69
Left 68 55 65
National Front 40 84 83
18-29 73 54 70
30-49 53 66 72
50+ 51 60 79
July 14, 2017 26
In Germany: Young Favor EU, Older Germans Want More
Power for Berlin
Favorable view of EU
Would support holding a
referendum on our
country’s EU membership
Our govt. should make decisions
about migration of non-EU
citizens into our country
% % %
TOTAL 68 50 75
Male 65 49 72
Female 72 52 77
AfD 40 69 77
SPD 77 48 74
CDU 82 47 74
The Left 74 51 72
18-29 75 52 64
30-49 70 46 76
50+ 65 51 78
July 14, 2017 27
Older Germans, Those Who Favor AfD Most Likely to Want
Berlin, Not Brussels to Do Trade Deals
German government
%
TOTAL 35
Male 37
Female 34
AfD 54
CDU 35
SPD 32
The Left 34
18-29 24
30-49 32
50+ 41
Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q47a.
60% 35 %
Our GovernmentThe EU
Should the EU or Germany make
decisions on international trade
agreements?
July 14, 2017 28
All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
Bruce Stokes
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
bstokes@pewresearch.org

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Post-Brexit Europeans More Positive About EU But Want Own Referendum

  • 1. Post-Brexit, Europeans More Positive About the EU, But Want Own Referendum on Membership Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes July 2017
  • 2. July 14, 2017 2 Pew Research Center • Established 1996 • Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, Foundations • Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington • Research topics: U.S. politics Media and the news Social trends Religion Internet and technology Science Hispanics Global public opinion and migration • www.pewresearch.org
  • 3. July 14, 2017 3 Methodology • Results of public survey by phone and in person of 9,935 respondents conducted March 2 to April 17, 2017 in 10 European Union countries • These 10 European Union member states account for roughly 80% of the EU population and 84% of the EU economy. • The margin of error ranges from 3.7% to 5.2%
  • 5. July 14, 2017 5 European Views of Current Economy Diverge Broadly The current economic situation in our country is … 38% 40 12 13 15 31 45 56 71 78 83 98 51 49 58% 58 87 86 84 64 51 42 28 21 15 2 47 46 Canada U.S. Netherlands Germany Sweden Poland UK Hungary Spain France Italy Greece MEDIAN Russia GoodBadNorth America Europe
  • 6. July 14, 2017 6 Increase in Favorability of EU in Many Countries Since Last Year Favorable view of EU
  • 7. July 14, 2017 7 More Positive View of the EU Among People Who Are Happy With Their Country’s Economy Favorable view of EU among those who say the current economic situation in their country is … Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey.
  • 8. Little Support for Leaving EU, but Many Want Their Own Referendum on Membership July 14, 2017 8 36% 34 22 22 18 13 13 11 11 58% 57 61 53 42 44 65 50 51 Greece Italy France Sweden Netherlands Hungary Spain Germany Poland Our country should leave the EU Support holding a national referendum on our country's EU membership
  • 9. July 14, 2017 9 Southern Europeans Strongly Believe Germany Has Too Much Influence Over EU Decisions 89% 68 68 54 49 46 42 21 20 49 10 5% 24 14 28 36 42 52 72 72 36 60 5% 4 10 6 8 3 5 4 2 5 26 Greece Spain Italy Poland Hungary UK France Netherlands Sweden MEDIAN Germany Too much About the right amount Too little Germany has __ influence when it comes to decision-making in the EU
  • 10. NATIONAL VIEWS OF THE EU AND ITS RECORD July 14, 2017 10
  • 12. July 14, 2017 12 Note: Statistically significant differences in bold. 18-29 30-49 50+ Youngest-oldest gap % % % UK 76 58 43 +33 Netherlands 77 73 54 +23 France 73 53 51 +22 Hungary 81 67 63 +18 Italy 67 61 52 +15 Greece 45 35 30 +15 Germany 75 70 65 +10 Sweden 69 62 65 +4 Spain 64 62 61 +3 Poland 73 79 71 +2 Younger Adults More Likely Than Older Ones to Favor EU Favorable view of EU
  • 13. July 14, 2017 13 Left Generally More Positive Toward the EU Than the Right Note: Statistically significant differences in bold. Favorable view of EU
  • 14. July 14, 2017 14 Europeans Divided on EU’s Handling of Economic Issues 85% 66 63 52 46 38 36 28 25 46 12% 23 35 38 42 54 47 61 58 42 Greece Italy France Spain Sweden Netherlands Hungary Germany Poland MEDIAN ApproveDisapprove Do you __ of the way the European Union is dealing with European economic issues?
  • 15. July 14, 2017 15 Many Europeans Disapprove of Brussels’ Management of the Refugee Issue 90% 80 78 65 66 67 65 59 52 66 8% 12 18 23 25 29 32 33 43 25 Greece Italy Sweden Poland Hungary Spain France Germany Netherlands MEDIAN ApproveDisapprove Do you __ of the way the European Union is dealing with the refugee issue?
  • 17. July 14, 2017 17 Most Say Brexit Will Be Bad for EU 59% 51 71 74 78 80 67 68 66 86 70 36% 26 18 16 14 14 12 11 8 7 14 France Italy UK Germany Spain Netherlands Hungary Greece Poland Sweden MEDIAN Good thingBad thing The UK leaving the EU will be a __ for the EU
  • 18. July 14, 2017 18 Many Europeans Think Brexit Will Be Bad for UK 31% 48 41 62 41 43 68 73 70 80 55 46% 44 36 34 30 27 25 23 22 14 29 Greece UK Italy France Hungary Poland Sweden Netherlands Spain Germany MEDIAN Good thingBad thing The UK leaving the EU will be a __ for the UK
  • 19. July 14, 2017 19 Few in Continental Europe Favor Their Country Leaving EU 11% 13 11 18 13 22 22 36 34 18 88% 84 82 80 77 76 74 58 56 77 Germany Spain Poland Netherlands Hungary France Sweden Greece Italy MEDIAN Stay in the EULeave the EU Our country should …
  • 20. July 14, 2017 20 Many Europeans Support Holding a Referendum on Their Country’s EU Status 28% 37 37 34 43 37 43 45 54 37 65% 61 58 57 53 51 50 44 42 53 Spain France Greece Italy Sweden Poland Germany Hungary Netherlands MEDIAN SupportOppose Would __ holding a national referendum on our country’s European Union membership
  • 21. July 14, 2017 21 Many EU Publics Want Their Governments to Decide on Future Trade Agreements Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown. Do you think our government should make decisions about international trade agreements for our country or should the EU make decisions about this issue? The EU Our government
  • 22. July 14, 2017 22 www.pewresearch.org On Migration of EU Citizens, Most EU Publics Want Decisions Made by Their National Governments Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown. Do you think our government should make decisions about the migration of EU citizens into our country or should the EU make decisions about this issue? The EU Our government
  • 23. July 14, 2017 23 On Migration of Non-EU Citizens, Most EU Publics Want Decisions Made by Their National Governments Note: Volunteered categories “Both” and “Neither” not shown. Do you think our government should make decisions about migration of people who are not EU citizens into our country or should the EU make decisions about this issue? The EU Our government
  • 24. July 14, 2017 24 UK: Generation Gap, Partisan Divide on EU Issues Favorable view of EU Leaving the EU will be good for the UK Germany has too much influence when it comes to decision-making in the EU % % % TOTAL 54 44 46 Male 53 48 48 Female 55 40 44 Conservatives 51 57 53 Labour 74 28 33 Liberal Democrats 75 29 36 UKIP 31 74 57 18-29 76 25 34 30-49 58 39 41 50+ 43 54 55 Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q12f, Q48b, Q49.
  • 25. July 14, 2017 25 In France: Young Favor EU, Those Who Favor the National Front Back a Referendum on EU Membership Favorable view of EU Would support holding a referendum on our country’s EU membership Our govt. should make decisions about migration of non-EU citizens into our country % % % TOTAL 56 61 75 Male 58 57 73 Female 53 65 77 En Marche 72 57 71 Republican 69 59 75 Socialist 83 54 69 Left 68 55 65 National Front 40 84 83 18-29 73 54 70 30-49 53 66 72 50+ 51 60 79
  • 26. July 14, 2017 26 In Germany: Young Favor EU, Older Germans Want More Power for Berlin Favorable view of EU Would support holding a referendum on our country’s EU membership Our govt. should make decisions about migration of non-EU citizens into our country % % % TOTAL 68 50 75 Male 65 49 72 Female 72 52 77 AfD 40 69 77 SPD 77 48 74 CDU 82 47 74 The Left 74 51 72 18-29 75 52 64 30-49 70 46 76 50+ 65 51 78
  • 27. July 14, 2017 27 Older Germans, Those Who Favor AfD Most Likely to Want Berlin, Not Brussels to Do Trade Deals German government % TOTAL 35 Male 37 Female 34 AfD 54 CDU 35 SPD 32 The Left 34 18-29 24 30-49 32 50+ 41 Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q47a. 60% 35 % Our GovernmentThe EU Should the EU or Germany make decisions on international trade agreements?
  • 28. July 14, 2017 28 All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes bstokes@pewresearch.org