‘When will it be done?’ is one of the first questions that you will be asked when you engage in building a software solution. If you are like most of us you will get it wrong more often than you will get it right and you are going to spend a lot of time in the process. What about if there is an alternative and you can provide a more accurate answer without even estimating? This talk offers an answer by implementing a #NoEstimate approach built on an Agile delivery process based on a ‘measurement and observation’ philosophy where trusted forecasts are a reality.

1. Just tell me when
it’s done
A #NoEstimates approach in an agile delivery project
P e t e r P i t o
@theppito

2. When will it be done?

4. Date
Driven
Development

5. Burndown charts

11. 11
F L O W
Flow is the movement and delivery of
customer value through a process.

16. 1. Define a Kanban system

24. 2. Define Work in Progress

28. 3. Measure ‘Cycle time’,’Throughput’ and ‘WIP’

31. 4. Visualise ‘Cycle time’ using Scatterplots

45. 5. Introduce a ‘Replenishment’ ceremony

53. 6. Monitor ‘Aging WIP items’

55. 7. Introduce WIP limiters across all states

56. 8. Use Cumulative Flow Diagrams to validate impact of our actions

70. FLOW MANAGED
FORECASTING on SOLID GROUNDS
PREDICTABLE SYSTEM

71. When will it be done?

72. 1. Number of items
2. Start date 15/09/2017
How long will it take?

73. 2. Target end date 21/11/2017
How many items can we build?
1. Start date 12/06/2017

74. 9. Forecasting - using Monte Carlo simulations

75. Monte Carlo Simulation
From the Flaw of Averages - Why we Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty by Sam L. Savage, Drawing by Jeff Danziger.

76. MC Simulation
• Define domain of possible inputs
• Generate inputs randomly from domain
• Perform a computation
• Aggregate result
[source: Wikipedia]
Statistical sampling based simulation

77. 1
Domain of
possible inputs
Daily throughput
2
Generate inputs
randomly from
domain
Select randomly a throughput
3
Perform a
computation
Use the Throughput and deduct
from the number of items to
complete
Increase the end date by one
4 Stop if …
… remaining number of items is
0 or negative value
5
Aggregate
results
Calculate % of completions

79. 10. One Page reports

82. “Goal of forecasting is to know earlier than later
if we’re in trouble”
Troy Mageniss
82

83. Date
Driven
Development

84. DatA
Driven
Development

85. Effortless
DatA
Driven
Development

86. Effortlessly
Predictable
Development

88. Thank you!
@theppito