Of all the species on the planet we are alone in optimizing anything and everything. But this is not a route to long term sustainability, and to move on from the destructive vice of manufacturing more and more for the few, to a world of providing sufficient for the many, we have to think and act very differently. Today’s technologies and production methods cannot achieve an equitable, stable and sustainable future for mankind, but future tech probably can. The key starting point lies at the cusp of nano, bio, artificial life and artificial intelligence, and our key challenge is to understand and master complexity. These components lie at the heart of (virtually) lossless repurposing, reuse and recycling and minimal energy consumption. We have to move on to material printing and programing instead of machining and forging; tagging and tracking instead of destruction and dumping; organic symbiosis instead of environmental destruction. Is there an existence theorem for this hypothesis? Look no further than mother nature! She optimizes and wastes nothing, always goes for low energy and low material consumption, recycles efficiently whilst achieving impressive resiliency. Can we do the same ? Almost certainly, but we have to rethink our ‘short termism and quick win’ modes of operation, and we have to adopt methods and solutions focused on the long term future. We also have to adopt ‘good enough’ strategies instead of extreme optimization. In turn, this demands a partnership and symbiosis with our machines to overcome our fundamental human limitations precluding us achieving these goals unaided.

1. The Curse of Optimization
Future sustainability, technology, industry and society
Peter Cochrane
cochrane .org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Wednesday, 6 November 13

2. In a
connected
of
world
finite
resources
a stove-piped
is
dangerous
Wednesday, 6 November 13
View

3. Optimizing by € € € € alone
leads to brittleness and
instability often with
severe ecological
and social
damage
Wednesday, 6 November 13

4. Countries, companies & economies
that look like this
are short lived
Today’s financial systems
only produce one result
Wednesday, 6 November 13

5. In the long
term this is
fundamentally
impossible...
...you can’t
have it all at
the same time!
Wednesday, 6 November 13

6. This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13

7. Brit
tlen
ess
This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13

8. Brit
tlen
ess
Cost of
Ownership
This is what business schools
teach budding managers, but
it is incomplete, and
it is wrong!
Wednesday, 6 November 13

9. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
η
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
𝓷

10. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
𝓷

11. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
𝓷

12. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
η
𝓷

13. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
η
𝓷

14. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential
case:
η
𝓷

15. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential
case:
η
C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷)
𝓷

16. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential
case:
η
C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷)
The optimum operating
efficiency is found to be:
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
𝓷

17. Efficiency - far more sophisticated than
ripping out cost or sweating assets
€€€
Optimum cost efficiency is
at the point (𝓷) where:
Failure cost with
efficiency f2(𝓷)
Failure free
operating cost
with efficiency f1(𝓷)
f1’(𝓷) + f2’(𝓷) = 0
For the specific exponential
case:
η
C = Aexp(-a. 𝓷) + Bexp(b. 𝓷)
The optimum operating
efficiency is found to be:
1
𝓷o = __
Efficiency
Wednesday, 6 November 13
𝓷
_
loge Aa
b-a
Bb

18. Wednesday, 6 November 13
se
ca
st
or
w
he
T

19. Only humans optimize...
Mother Nature goes for
good enough....
se
ca
...and in doing so achieves sustainable
st
or
w
relationships....a symbiosis....
he
T
Wednesday, 6 November 13

20. €€€€
The minimum
decision set
Society
Ecology
Wednesday, 6 November 13

21. te
ch
no
lo
gy
€€€€
The minimum
decision set
Society
Ecology
Wednesday, 6 November 13

22. Even more fundamental to all this is the
advance and adoption of new technology
that is unpredicted/not fully understood
Wednesday, 6 November 13

23. im
po
ss
ib
le
is
im
t
p
o
y
b
Su
st
ain
ab
ilit
y
g
in
iz
old processes
and industries
Wednesday, 6 November 13

24. The Future
Wednesday, 6 November 13

25. The Future
Bio
Nano
AI, AL
ITC
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Printing
Instructing
Networking
Collaborating
Programming
Repurposing
Recycling
Reusing

26. Wednesday, 6 November 13

27. Machines are the
biggest communicators
on the Plane t
They dominate manufacture and production and
are moving into design and general knowledge,
modeling and decision support
Wednesday, 6 November 13

28. They need
The Cloud
even more
than we do !
Wednesday, 6 November 13

29. The Internet cannot
scale to 9Bn people
and over 50Bn
machines on
line, but
Clouds
can
Wednesday, 6 November 13

30. We are increasingly
defeated by complexity,
but our machines are not !
Wednesday, 6 November 13

31. We are increasingly
defeated by complexity,
but our on
machines are not
Now outgunning humans
general and specific knowledge
Wednesday, 6 November 13

32. Half Life of
Knowledge
Physics
~13 yrs
Medical
~ 4 yrs
Software
~ 4 yrs
Wednesday, 6 November 13
Economics
~ 9 yrs
Marine Bio
~ 2 yrs

33. ITC is vital to
our symbiosis
Material Technology
the biggest game
changer for industry
and sustainability
Wednesday, 6 November 13

34. Thank You
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Wednesday, 6 November 13