In a rapidly changing world of growing demand and diminishing resources merely polishing our old technologies and making industrial processes ever more efficient only delays the onset of crisis and collapse - it does not solve the fundamental problem. Sustainable futures are inextricably linked to radical change and the creation of new technologies based on new materials, processing, shaping, use, reuse, repurposing and recycling at minimal loss. So we look to the intersection of Artificial Intelligence, Nano and Bio-Technology to demonstrate advances are being made, and where the biggest societal changes will originate. We take a deep dive into the realm of human replacement and augmentation by machine, and the likely implications for individuals, groups, society, companies, institutions and governments.

1. Tech
Turmoil
To Come
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk

2. exponential waves of technology
Each arrival is bigger than the last
Arrival intervals shorten with time

3. The ratchet
Evolution and Technology
have no reverse gear !
We survive at the behest of technology
More technology more people live
More progress per successive lifetime

4. EXPONENTIALs Confound us
More data/information generated this year than in
the previous 5000…
….and next year and the year after, and…

6. Solutions
Lots of simple solutions
to complex problems
they are
all
wrong!

7. failing sustainability strategies
Improving the efficiency of old industries, technologies, and methods
Recycling, reuse, repurposing
Today’s green energy solutions
All fail
in the
long term

8. SIMPLE SYSTEMS
Requirements easy to define
Easy to design
Easy to build
Predictable performance
Within human grasp and abilities
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics work

9. Complicated SYSTEMS
Requirements difficult to define
Difficult to design
Difficult to build
Difficult to understand
Predictable performance
Within human grasp and abilities
Laws of physics apply
Mathematics ‘mostly’ work

10. Complex SYSTEMS
Requirements often uncertain
Difficult/easy to specify
Difficult/easy to build
Unpredictable performance
Evolution and emergent behaviour
Beyond human grasp and abilities
Established wisdoms do not apply
Mathematics no longer works
No general laws
only a meme !

12. our future trajectory
New industries, technologies, and methods
AI
BIO-TECH nano-TECH
Multi-Disciplinary
hot spot

13. OPEn hardware - printed functionality
No assembly required - posting designs intend of shipping atoms

14. Printed & programmed replacements
Vertebral Disc
Trachea
Injection Molded
Breathing Lung

15. IMMEDIATE IMPLICATIONS
Sensors more capable than anything we had before
Food production monitoring
Contamination detection
General ailment diagnosis
Early cancer detection
Explosives detection
+++

16. The migration of ability
Health systems are not underfunded or broken,
they are the wrong model for the 21st Century
We will become the
custodians of our own
records and guardians
of our own health…
free at source when
needed will become:
‘in your own hands’

17. The migration of ability
Health systems are not underfunded or broken
They are the wrong model!
The migration of ability
From Laboratory to Hospital
From Hospital to Doctors Office
From Doctors Office to The Home
We are the typists, xerox, telephone
and computer operators, and soon
technology will see DIY medicine
overtake todays Victorian systems

18. Star trek
BODY scanner
is IN the lab
phase today

19. artificial intelligence
Human intellect amplifier
Anticipatory search/analysis
Modelling/decision support
Complex problem solving
Natural language I/O
not the end
just a new
beginning

20. 15
10
5
0
Estimated information half-life
for different fields of study
Economics
Physics
Medicine
Software Marine
Biology
Astro-
Physics
Number of years after publication

21. Past, Present & Future
Machines decoded the genome
Now working on proteins
They design our electronics
Manufacture our products
Enable new technologies
Power our research
And empower us !

22. Past, why d Por wees eenmtp l&o Fyu pteuorpele
The are
cheaper
than robots
They can do things
robots cannot

24. YOU Will experience far more tech change than I

25. Jobs
lost!
in My lifetime
Typists
Dockers
Milkman
Blacksmith
Secretaries
Drawing office
Xerox operator
Elevator operator
Computer operator
Telephone operator
Comptometer operator
Financial report writers
++++

26. Jobs
to go!
i n your lifetime
Testers
Tasters
Analysts
Advisors
Educators
Reporters
Strategists
Call centres
Report writers
Personal bankers
Personal assistants
Answering services
Investment bankers
Warehouse People
Personal Assistant
Tec h s u p por t
Stock Trader
Receptionist
Forecasters
Train driver
Researcher
Journalist
Drivers
Agents
Pilots

27. Jobs
to be
enhanced
i n your lifetime
Fabricator
Geneticist
Generalist
Proteomist
Multi-designer
Problem solver
Longevity advisor
Big Data Analyst
Cellular programmer
Material programmer
Complexity analysts
Security Experts
Entrepreneurs
Technologists
Consultants
Architects
Detectives
Designers
Engineers
Modellers
Scientists
Medics

28. i n your lifetime
Jobs
to come!
Material Programmer
Recycling Designers
Interface Designers
Machine Mediators
Wisdom Archivists
Genome Designer
Material Designer
Wisdom Monitors
Trouble Shooters
Nano-Engineers
Bio-Engineers
3/4D Designer
Risk Profilers
Cyborg Engineer
Protein Designer
Crime Predictor
Digital Historian
Information Caretaker
Truth Engine Mediator
Component Repurposer
Genome-Protein Activators

29. TECHnology
PREDICTION
IS EASY
What people and society
will do with it however
appears impossible
to forecast

30. And Now !!

31. Thank You
ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s