Looking back it is hard to think of another telecom technology that has seen more debate, more vacillation, and less real action than FTTH. But now I think we can safely assume that we have a ‘green light’ and deployment is not an option. The debate is now; ‘not if or when’, but how? For those looking for the one true FTTH solution I say there is no silver bullet – more a menu of options that each country/company will have to choose from to meet local needs.

1. FTTH
@
Last ?
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Friday, 13 January 12

2. The debate has lasted
a long long time...
Friday, 13 January 12

3. What we know for sure!
Friday, 13 January 12

4. There are no silver bullets!
Friday, 13 January 12

5. No killer apps!
Friday, 13 January 12

6. No ‘one’ topology or
‘one’ technology !
Friday, 13 January 12

7. There are no mysteries
either - we have known
sufficient for decades to
make the right choices !
Friday, 13 January 12

8. Decades of operating
experience, roll outs,
studies, and engineering
give us 20:20 vision !
Friday, 13 January 12

9. Long lines optical fibre
•Revolutionised telecoms
•Sidelined microwave radio
•Sidelined satellites
•Enabled the internet
•Reduced manpower > 80%
•Reduced faults > 99%
•Increased capacity > 106
•Vastly reduced costs
•Vastly improved profit margins
Friday, 13 January 12

10. Local loop optical fibre
• Technically viable 1984
• Economically viable 1986
• In manufacture 1990
• Far East roll out ~1993
• UK roll out ~1991
• UK cancellation 1991
Friday, 13 January 12

11. What was on offer
• Reduced switch sites >90%
• Reduced staffing > 70%
• Reduced truck rolls > 95%
• Infinite bandwidth
• Endless upgradability
• Remote programability
• Customer autonomy
• Vastly reduced costs
• Vastly improved profit margin
• New business opportunities
Friday, 13 January 12

12. How big an investment?
In 1992 - for an EU Telco only
3 - 5 years of profit !
Friday, 13 January 12

13. What went wrong ?
•Vested interests
•Limited thinking
•A lack of real understanding
- technology
- economics
- customers
- markets
•The false promise of copper
•An inability to change
Friday, 13 January 12

14. ...and a string of really
dumb questions
followed...
Why would anyone want :-
• 64kbit/s
• 256kbit/s
• 1Mbit/s
• 10Mbit/s
• 100Mbit/s
• 1000Mbit/s
...and what would they use it for ?
Friday, 13 January 12

15. Can you imagine....
Why do you want to travel at:-
• 20km/h
• 40km/h
• 60km/h
• 80km/h
• 100km/h
• 120km/h
...and what are you going to use
this car for ?
Friday, 13 January 12

16. And the specification....
Up to 100 km/l
Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail
wind, and long downhill slope
Friday, 13 January 12

17. It is as if an industry
chose to ignore all
e v i d e n c e , m a r ke t
pressure, customer
demand, IT progress
& the next industrial
revolution...
Friday, 13 January 12

18. So perhaps we should
be looking at the
bigger picture...
Friday, 13 January 12

19. Sustainability cannot
be realised with old
technologies and old
industry models...
Friday, 13 January 12

20. Changing all the light
bulbs and tinkering at
the edges won’t cure
this problem..
Friday, 13 January 12

21. We have to stop
doing things like this
and find planet (and
people) friendly
alternatives...
Friday, 13 January 12

22. Underused video
conference is a sign of
the lack of network
bandwidth and
connectivity...
...it does not signify a
lack of need, demand,
or suitable technology !
Friday, 13 January 12

23. Home, remote, and
working on the move
are obvious winners
too...
...but only if you can get
the bandwidth and
connectivity you need...
Friday, 13 January 12

24. But there is widespread
frustration at the
extremely low bandwidth
and poor connectivity
available today ...
Friday, 13 January 12

25. It undermines and
prevents the
widespread use of the
latest technologies...
Friday, 13 January 12

26. < 7 % of internet ready
TV sets can gain access
at sufficient speed to be
useable...
Friday, 13 January 12

27. I collected these Global average
test results over
the past year as I
travelled the
planet...
Global average
Friday, 13 January 12

28. d !!
I collected these o rl
w
ic
Global average
test results over e tr
m
the past year as I sy
m
a
travelled the an
planet... n ot
is
t IT
B u
Global average
Friday, 13 January 12

29. Bandwidth & connectivity
present the ultimate road
block to our progress...
Friday, 13 January 12

30. Our future and that
of the planet lies in
the hands of new
technologies and new
models for industry
and society...
Friday, 13 January 12

31. I only have time to
illustrate this with a few
samples of some of the
biggest changes on the
horizon....
Friday, 13 January 12

32. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot....
...and the next industrial revolution
Nano Bio
IT + AI
Friday, 13 January 12

33. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot....
...and the next industrial revolution
Nano Bio
IT + AI
This is where all
the real action is
going to be
Friday, 13 January 12

34. Moving on from bulk
materials and the
destruction of
resources...
...3D printing is going
mainstream in industry... and
soon it will be in every office
and home
Friday, 13 January 12

35. It is revolutionising
the way we think of
design & production...
...enabling new ways to realize
c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d
integrated components...
Friday, 13 January 12

36. In the extreme it will
change everything...
...and we have to think in terms
of shipping designs and not
goods...
Friday, 13 January 12

37. Hardware
Access
OPEN
Networks
Software
Friday, 13 January 12

38. Hardware
Access
OPEN
Networks
Software
Friday, 13 January 12

39. Hardware
ig n
D es t
Access en
lo pm
D e ve
OPEN on
bu ti
Networks
i st ri on
D a ti
n ov
In
Software
Friday, 13 January 12

40. Bridging the organic
and the biological to
create new materials
and capabilities...
Friday, 13 January 12

41. Programming materials
to form 3D objects of
predefined shape &
function...
Friday, 13 January 12

42. Sensors and decoding
the genome in minutes
will change medicine
and care...
...whilst the decoding the
protein will lead to a new
chapter for the human
race...
Friday, 13 January 12

43. We can now manipulate
individual atoms and
program cell by cell...
Friday, 13 January 12

44. And our machines are
designing machines...
Friday, 13 January 12

45. And our machines are
designing machines...
Friday, 13 January 12

46. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part
reality...
Friday, 13 January 12

47. AI for the professions and the masses via The
Cloud...
Friday, 13 January 12

48. And there is so much more...
• Social nets use GPS to go real
• Machine to machine + robotics
• Telepresence for maintenance
• Logistics and RFID + tracking
• Vehicle and people tracking
• Appliance and device tracking
• Dynamic energy management
• Interactive books & newspapers
• Interactive media
• The death of radio,TV, print +++
Friday, 13 January 12

49. Huh !
Run that past me one
more time: The
e c o n o m i c c a s e fo r
FTTH is unproven ??
Friday, 13 January 12

50. No one is seeing
or forecasting a
downturn in net
traffic...
Friday, 13 January 12

51. The ‘potential’ gap
is huge for new
services and new
applications...
Friday, 13 January 12

52. New thinking is
required, but there are
exemplar companies
and countries from
which to learn...
• Japan
• Korea
• China
• Scandinavia
• ++++
• Jersey (Channel Islands
Friday, 13 January 12

53. The biggest challenges
facing the netco
industry ?
• History
• Old mindsets
• Old models
• Existing operations
• Vested interests
• Change
Friday, 13 January 12

54. The most recent net/
telco transformation...
• 1Gbit/s bi-directional
• 100% ducted - no overhead
• WiFi + 3G in every terminal
• Fibre to every company completed
• FTTH roll out underway
Friday, 13 January 12

55. A few specifics...
• Fibre roll from periphery to core
• Address high net worths first
• Small housing clusters next
• Encourage self install
• Encourage community action
• 100% Ethernet
• 1 NGN for fixed & mobile
• Point to point fibre
• Office grade equipment
• Mobile only - SIP on demand
• PSTN + MPLS Closure
Friday, 13 January 12

56. Customer access...
• Open access 3G
• Open access WiFi
• Upgrade to 4/5G later
• Guard the fibre connection
• Leave all RG45 access open
• Get customers to wire their own
Friday, 13 January 12

57. The island-wide vision...
• FTTH & Office @ 1Gbit/s
• Hybrid wireless where necessary
•Seamless wireless access everywhere
• Open to all users on all devices
• 3G @ 14Mbit/s
• 4G, 5G when available
• WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s
• WiMax as required
Friday, 13 January 12

58. And migrate the
business model into
new services...
Friday, 13 January 12

59. And what of the future,
what’s over the horizon
for the industry...
...is there more?
Friday, 13 January 12

60. And what of the future,
what’s over the horizon
for the industry...
...is there more?
Friday, 13 January 12

61. Oh yes , and it
demands even
more bandwidth
and connectivity?
Friday, 13 January 12

62. Where you are ?
Oh yes , and it Where you have been ?
Where you are likely to be going to ?
demands even Who you have met ?
more bandwidth Who you are going to meet ?
Who you call ?
and connectivity? Who calls you ?
Who you TXT - IM - Link ?
All your contacts
All your urls
All you passwords
What you are doing now ?
What have you done in the past ?
What games you play ?
What apps you use ?
What music you listen to...?
What you watch...?
What you read...?
++++++++++
Friday, 13 January 12

63. And the £, $, € is in
the MetaData...
Friday, 13 January 12

64. ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
Thank You
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Friday, 13 January 12