1. INSIDE THIS ISSUE
Economic Update .............. 1-4
News at EWS...................... 5-6
Second Quarter
May 2015
The Eagle’s View
Economy
& Investment Markets
By Paul J. Tully
F
inally, after what seems to many peo-
ple as the longest period of cold weath-
er in their memories, nice weather has
arrived. With it also seems to be a pretty mild economy and investment mar-
kets, neither too hot nor too cold. That is both good and bad news.
We really need a more robust economy to truly do something meaningful about
employment; don’t be fooled by the headlines about 200,000 or more jobs per
month and a relatively low unemployment rate. Both of these statistics are mis-
leading in that they do not define the type of jobs being created nor do they
account for the number of people who are eligible to work (the labor participa-
tion rate) and who are either not seeking employment or cannot find what they
want.
Inflation and energy prices remain low, but in the case of energy, not quite as
low as a few months ago. I have heard locally from several realtors that the
market is active, though prices don’t seem to be moving up much.
Financial Planning
These issues don’t change quarter to quarter, though we do see shifts in atten-
tion paid to these matters by the public. We agree with the various surveys that
continue to list the biggest concern, #1, is the fear of running out of mon-
ey. Next is healthcare costs after age 60, followed by income taxes (both state
and federal), protection from losing assets either from markets or lawsuits, and
estate planning/legacy planning for family or charity. That’s quite a list of some
significant issues which some people rank differently.
A N I ND EP E N D EN T F I RM
(Continued on page 4)
(Continued on page 2)
2. According to JP Morgan, since the market in the US bottomed out in March of 2009, most stock size/style cate-
gories are up between 250 and 325%. If you look at how they have done since the previous market peak in Octo-
ber 2007, it is quite a different story. All US stock categories (by size/style) are up less than 80 over that almost
8 year period, an annual return of less than 8%.
We have a bit of a “Catch 22” in the US. The past few years have seen great corporate earnings, which are now
starting to slow. If earnings keep growing at this pace, which I don’t think is likely, I believe that the Federal
Reserve will raise interest rates sooner and higher. If earnings growth slows, interest rates will remain low, but
stocks aren’t likely to respond well to that scenario either, at least not at the torrid pace of 2009-2013.
Take a look at the two charts on the next page. They (from Blackrock) show you the benefits of diversification
over time and the differences timing can make in certain returns. The periods measured are 1/1/2000 through
12/31/2009, commonly referred
to as the “lost decade” for US
stock investors and below that,
the period from 1/1/2010
through the end of 2014.
In both cases a “global allocation”
approach (which is how we man-
age client model portfolios) fin-
ished 3rd, but the categories that
placed 1stand 2nd were totally dif-
ferent for each period. In fact, the
#1 category for the past 5 years
was US stocks, but for the prior
10 years, that category was 10th
and produced a 10-year return of
minus 9%. It pays to be properly
diversified!
ECONOMY & INVESTMENT MARKETS (continued from front page)
The good news in employment continues to be that
the market for recent college grads (or any college
grads) has been getting better. As we continue to
transition to a more ser-
vice and knowledge-
based economy, a pro-
cess that may take a few
generations to play out,
the better educated and
computer literate will
have a decided ad-
vantage over those who
are not.
The highly regarded University of Michigan survey of
consumer confidence recorded the second highest
level since the beginning of 2007, which is likely a
good sign for real estate, autos and other large con-
sumer purchases.
The investment markets in the US could best be de-
scribed as “flat” with very modest overall gains and a
fair amount of volatility. Absent some good or bad
catalyst to make the markets move sharply in either
direction, I see this recent pattern as likely to contin-
ue for some months. Europe is a bit of a different
story with their markets outperforming ours so far
this year after several subpar years.
“Europe is a bit of a different story with their markets outperforming
ours so far this year after several subpar years.”
2
3. 3
The other slide is our old JP Morgan favorite, the “Annual Returns and Intra Year Declines”
chart which we think is important to always keep in mind. There is a clear, 30-year pattern of
significant declines, even in a rising market. Just like is pays to be diversified, it pays to be
patient.
4. FINANCIAL PLANNING (continued from front page)
As you know, though we have frequently offered
to provide a “second opinion” to our clients’ fam-
ily, friends, and business associates, we have
never asked for introductions or referrals, nor do
we plan to in the future. It is an uncomfortable
position for all parties and in my opinion is much
more likely to harm our good relationships with
those people we have served for many years.
Having said that, we see some things today that
concern us.
One main issue is what the economic world looks like going forward.
The past 6 years have been very good ones for most investors, but that pace is very unlikely to continue,
though we hope it does. Hope is not a good strategy though when you may be dealing with someone’s 30-
year retirement. Therefore, people have “gotten away with” in some cases, not having a well-balanced in-
vestment plan. It may have worked out in the past 5 years but not as likely on the next 5.
Another concern we also see is a multitude of people branding themselves as financial planners or advi-
sors, most without credentials like a CFP® and in many cases, nothing more than an insurance license.
The Department of Labor, with strong backing from the
Securities Exchange Commission (but with a lot of re-
sistance from the investment and insurance companies) is
launching an aggressive campaign to require much more
disclosure to the public as well as requiring advisors to
adhere to a fiduciary standard in terms of putting clients
best interests first.
We strongly support changes in this area and feel that the
public has been hoodwinked into believing that people they deal with have expertise and credentials that
they do not possess. There are a large number of highly qualified CFPs® out there in the marketplace, who
serve as fiduciaries, so we are not trumpeting this widely ad-
mired credential because we are the only ones who have it. We do
think we are the only local firm where all three of the senior advi-
sors are CFPs®.
As we have offered in the past, if you have people in
your life who you care about and who you think we
may be able to help in some way, we are happy and
honored to meet with them to see if we can assist them
with their overall plan. That second opinion may be a
life changer for some people and a reinforcement that
all is already well for others.
4
5. BIG NEWS!
Steffanie and her husband Mike will be wel-
coming their second child into the world with a
due date of October 10. Steff is feeling good,
busy as ever, and expects to work up until the
baby is born. We will be finding out the sex of
the baby toward the end of this month and will
be announcing it on our Facebook page so stay
tuned and be sure to “like” us on Facebook!
Continuing Education
Chris, Jess, and Paul traveled to
Las Vegas last month (Jess with a
torn ACL, since successfully operated
on) for the Raymond James National
Conference on Professional Develop-
ment. There were 4,000 people there,
the meetings ran from 8pm until 5pm
Monday through Thursday, and we
heard from a number of experts on
the economy, investment markets
and issues impacting our business.
The investment people felt we were
still in a longer term rising invest-
ment markets for stocks and the in-
dustry practitioners spoke about the increasing regulatory and competitive pressures we face in our
business, for which we believe we are already well prepared. Paul also has conferences on investment
management in Jersey City and Chicago this summer and Chris has one in Memphis.
In the Community
Dana continues to be heavily involved with the Gloucester County
Animal Shelter and in recent months has become involved with their
auxiliary organization — A Voice for Paws — which raises awareness
on the importance of adopting, fos-
tering and volunteering with ani-
mals throughout Gloucester County
and also provides assistance with
Trap-Neuter-Release, fostering and
food for strays, dog training, and pet
owners with economic hardships.
In February, Kathy and her daugh-
ter Nicole participated in 30-Hour Famine’s Stop Hunger Now where
she and her youth group packed 10,000 meals for starving children in
Africa all while going 30 hours with no food for themselves!
5
NEWS AT EWS
6. Steffanie and her son Landon volunteered with her
United Way group to help a local program called
“Mothers Matter” in April where they packed hygiene/
cosmetic supplies for hospitals and low-income daycare
children to give to their mothers for Mother’s Day.
Office Space
We are adding to our office space in the building and
likely adding at least one new associate as well. We have
been very fortunate to have experienced very good
growth in recent years and with that comes a higher commitment to client service and services. We will remain in
our location but adding the office suite across the hall.
Awards & Recognition
We have once again been recognized by Philadelphia Magazine and New Jersey
Monthly for our work. Also, Paul was chosen by London based Financial Times as
one of the 400 leading advisors in the US, only 20 of whom are from NJ. This award
in particular is a tribute to the commitment and hard work of our team and our cli-
ents since criteria included measures that are impacted by the services we offer, our
credentials, our compliance history, and growth rate. Criteria for selection of the
award included the following: assets under management, asset growth rate, years of
experience, compliance record, certifications that demonstrate technical and indus-
try knowledge, and online accessibility (illustrates commitment to providing inves-
tors with easy access and transparent contact information).
Night Out
The EWS team enjoyed a night out bowling last quarter for our quarterly team building event. Steff took 1st place
(must be that softball arm!) while Chris bowled the most spares. All in all… not too shabby!
Chris Paul
7. Peach Tree Professional Center
877 Kings Highway
Suite 300
West Deptford, NJ 028096
Phone: (856) 845-4005
Fax: (856) 845-4121
paul.tully@eaglewealthstrategies.com
www.eaglewealthstrategies.com
Securities offered through Raymond
James Financial Services, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC
A N I ND EP E N D EN T F I RM
Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent firm in West Deptford, New Jersey.
Our team of financial advisors provides comprehensive financial and retirement
planning services to successful individuals and families, retirees and those
nearing retirement, single, widowed and divorced women, and attorneys, ac-
countants and physicians.
Each of our financial advisors – Paul Tully, Steffanie Lerch and Chris Tully–
holds the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification. This distinguished
industry credential is awarded to a select number of financial professionals who
satisfy the CFP® Board of Standard’s rigorous educational and examination
requirements, and who agree to adhere to its high level of ethical and profes-
sional standards.
This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Paul
Tully and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not
guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include trans-
action costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee
future results.
_______________ ________________ __________________
Paul J. Tully Steffanie A. Lerch Christopher T. Tully
CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™
____________________ __________________ ___________________
Jessica L. Hauser Dana F. Rohach Kathy M. Repici
CHIEF OPERATIONS OFFICER CLIENT COMMUNICATIONS & CLIENT SERVICE ASSOCIATE
MARKETING ASSOCIATE