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Expertise Development
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
Deliberate Practice: An activity that is designed
    to improve a individuals performance level.




                                     paulshawsmith
                                        scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
Adam Kethro




              paulshawsmith
                 scientific business strategy
Doug Crow




            paulshawsmith
               scientific business strategy
Mick Goss




            paulshawsmith
               scientific business strategy
Colin Van Heeden




                   paulshawsmith
                      scientific business strategy
Nic Beaumont




               paulshawsmith
                  scientific business strategy
Will Battershill




                   paulshawsmith
                      scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




             paulshawsmith
                scientific business strategy
27   Entrepreneurs




                     paulshawsmith
                        scientific business strategy
3to



40    start ups




                  paulshawsmith
                     scientific business strategy
12   to



43   yrs experience




                      paulshawsmith
                         scientific business strategy
$200        million to



$6billion




                         paulshawsmith
                            scientific business strategy
1   IPO




          paulshawsmith
             scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




Are opportunities found or made?




                          paulshawsmith
                             scientific business strategy
Search and Select
    AMAR BHIDE
Causation
    AMAR BHIDE
Create and Transform
Effectuation
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




Was your business idea found or made?
               (2 mins)




                             paulshawsmith
                                scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




How do you make a new market?
           (2 mins)




                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE



  “Most of what you hear about
 entrepreneurship is all wrong. It’s
not magic; it’s not mysterious; and
it has nothing to do with genes. It’s
a discipline and, like any discipline,
         it can be learned.”
     - Peter F. Drucker 1985


                             paulshawsmith
                                scientific business strategy
1 Vision




           paulshawsmith
              scientific business strategy
The Myth of the Visionary
     Entrepreneur
The Road Map
AMAR BHIDE
          1. Search for opportunity
             2. Light blub moment
             3. Writes business plan
                4. Raises funds
              5. Hires great team
               6. Builds product
         7. Orchestrates big launch
       8. Achieves hockey stick growth
                     9. IPO
              10. Retires on island
                                         paulshawsmith
                                            scientific business strategy
Business Plan?



                         Yes!
                                   No!



                   21%
                                             79%

                                          paulshawsmith
                                             scientific business strategy
Source: Bhide (2000)
“new ventures launched with formal written
      business plans do not outperform ones
             launched without them.”




                                                               paulshawsmith
                                                                  scientific business strategy
Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)
Low levels of planning




                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
Source: Dencker, Gruber, Shah (2009)
High levels of planning




                                                          paulshawsmith
                                                             scientific business strategy
Source: Dencker, Gruber, Shah (2009)
No!
No!
No!
            No!
No!
No!
Causal Thinking
(Selecting between given means to achieve a pre-determined goal)




           M1



           M2


           M3                            Given
                                         Goal

            M4


            M5



            M6
Causal Thinking


                                            Market
                                           Research




                  Knowledge


                                              Market
                   People                      Gap
  Tasks



                  Resources




                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific success strategy
Causal Thinking


                                            Market
                                           Research




                  Knowledge


                                              Market
                   People                      Gap
  Tasks



                  Resources




                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific success strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
Casual Thinking




                    Cook Book



                                                   Outcome
                     Hire Staff
  Vision



                  Buy Ingredients




                                    paulshawsmith
                                       scientific success strategy
Market Research?

                                                         88%

                   12%
                                   Yes!
                                              No!




                                                      paulshawsmith
                                                         scientific business strategy
Source: Inc. 500 Magazine (2010)
???
AMAR BHIDE
      "OK, I need to know which of their various groups of students,
         trainees, and individuals would be most interested so I can
               target the audience a little bit more. What other
       information...I've never done consumer marketing, so I don't
        really know. I think probably...I think mostly I'd just try to...I
      would...I wouldn't do all this, actually. I'd just go sell it. I don't
       believe in market research. Somebody once told me the only
            thing you need is a customer. Instead of asking all the
         questions, I'd try and make some sales. I'd learn a lot, you
      know: which people, what were the obstacles, what were the
          questions, which prices work better. Even before I started
       production. So my market research would actually be hands-
                              on actual selling."


Source: Sarasavathy (2007)
                                                          paulshawsmith
                                                             scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE
  "Ultimately, the best test of any product is to go to your target
  market and pretend like it's a real business. You'll find out soon
 enough if it is or not. You have to take some risks. You can sit and
  analyze these different markets forever and ever and ever, and
    you'd get all these wonderful answers, and they still may be
  wrong. The problem with the businessman type is they spend a
 lot of time with all their great wisdom and all their spreadsheets
  and all their Harvard Business Review people, and they'd either
 become convinced that there's no market at all or that they have
 the market nailed. And they'd go out there big time, with a lot of
  expensive advertising and upfront costs, because they're gonna
     overwhelm the market, and the business would go under."


Source: Sarasavathy (2007)
                                                     paulshawsmith
                                                        scientific business strategy
1 Vision




           paulshawsmith
              scientific business strategy
1 Vision




           paulshawsmith
              scientific business strategy
Bird-in-the-hand




                   paulshawsmith
                      scientific business strategy
Effectual Thinking
(Imaging a possible new end using a given set of means)



                                                   Goal



           Given Means                             Goal



                                                   Goal
                 M1        M2

                      M4
            M3                                     Goal
                            M6
                      M5


                                                   Goal



                                                   Goal
Effectual Thinking



                                             Outcome
               Opportunities

                                             Outcome

   Resources
                                             Outcome



    Knowledge                                Outcome




                                             Outcome
                 People


                                             Outcome




                               paulshawsmith
                                  scientific success strategy
paulshawsmith
   scientific business strategy
Effectual Thinking



                                               Meal 1
                 Knowledge of
                   Cooking
                                               Meal 2

   Ingredients
     on Hand
                                               Meal 3



     Equipment
                                               Meal 4
      Available


                  People I                     Meal 5
                   Know

                                               Meal 6




                                paulshawsmith
                                   scientific success strategy
Effectual Thinking



                 Course
                 Match



    FaceMash



      Partner
      Friends


                Customer
                Students




                           paulshawsmith
                              scientific success strategy
Novice      Expert
(Causal)   (Effectual)
What are the advantages of being means-
      driven rather than goal driven?
                (6 mins)




                              paulshawsmith
                                 scientific business strategy
•   You are not chasing investors.
      AMAR BHIDE
•   You are not waiting for the perfect opportunity or perfect set of
    resources.
•   You are working with your strengths without having to
    overcome your weaknesses first.
•   Good stakeholders want to shape goals, not just provide
    means.
•   You are increasing the possible stakeholder who can self-
    select in your venture.
•   You are increasing the probability of innovative surprises.
•   You are increasing the likelihood of finding or creating
    opportunities that are a better fit for you.
•   You are increasing the likelihood of even failures being
    learning experiences that you can recover form faster and
    build on when you are ready to try again.
•   You are forcing yourself to get creative with meager resources
    including slack resources and even waste.

                                                         paulshawsmith
                                                            scientific business strategy
When are goals useful and when are
          goals harmful?




                            paulshawsmith
                               scientific business strategy
Inventory your means
  Who you       Who you   What you     What you    Who you            Who you
   know          know      know         know        Are                Are

Your rolodex              Your prior                Tastes,
                          knowledge               values and
                                                  preferences
 Classmates               Knowledge                Passions
                          from your
                             job
Serendipitous             Knowledge                Hobbies
 encounters                from life

The strangers              Informal                Interests
 in your life              learning,
                            hobbies



                                                       paulshawsmith
                                                          scientific business strategy
Inventory your means
    AMAR BHIDE
What means did you acquire or build:

•   As a teenager.

•   At school.

•   At university.

•   In your first, second, etc…. Job

•   In your private life.

•   With your hobbies, activities, etc.

•   From your parents.




                                          paulshawsmith
                                             scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




 Create a list of all your means
           Who am I?
       What do I know?
        Who do I know?
    (10 mins with partners)




                            paulshawsmith
                               scientific business strategy
AMAR BHIDE




      Come up with at least
     3 great business ideas.
            (10 mins)




                           paulshawsmith
                              scientific business strategy
I don’t have a good idea




                       paulshawsmith
                          scientific business strategy
Where do ideas come from (in theory):


                 Patent Office
            Government (CSIR, NRI)
             Technology Transfer
                 Trade Shows
            Doctoral Dissertations
             Invention Expositions
                Brainstorming



                                     paulshawsmith
                                        scientific business strategy
Where do ideas come from (in practice):
         Personal satisfaction and dissatisfaction
                   Industry knowledge
                  Outgrowth of hobbies
              Ideas trust on one by others
    Acquisition of company or product already started
      Ideas rejected by employer or other company
              Very small start, then growth
               Customer generated ideas



                                               paulshawsmith
                                                  scientific business strategy
Assessing Opportunities


     Is it doable?
   Is it worth doing?
      Can I do it?
  Do I want to do it?


                        paulshawsmith
                           scientific business strategy
Feasibility                       Value


                Is it doable?
                                              Is it worth doing?
            Technology feasibility
Market
                                             Financial feasibility
              Market feasibility
             Economic feasibility



                                             Do I want to do it?
                  Can I do it?
                                         What turns me on about it?
Personal   What will it take to do it?
                                           Why do I want to do it?
             Who else do I need?
                                               Exit strategies


                                                   paulshawsmith
                                                      scientific business strategy

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01. Bird in-the-hand (Enablis)

  • 2. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 3. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 4. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 5. Deliberate Practice: An activity that is designed to improve a individuals performance level. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 6. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 7. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 8. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 9. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 10. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 11. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 12. Adam Kethro paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 13. Doug Crow paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 14. Mick Goss paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 15. Colin Van Heeden paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 16. Nic Beaumont paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 17. Will Battershill paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 18. AMAR BHIDE paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 19. 27 Entrepreneurs paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 20. 3to 40 start ups paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 21. 12 to 43 yrs experience paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 22. $200 million to $6billion paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 23. 1 IPO paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 24. AMAR BHIDE Are opportunities found or made? paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 25. Search and Select AMAR BHIDE
  • 26. Causation AMAR BHIDE
  • 29.
  • 30. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 31. AMAR BHIDE Was your business idea found or made? (2 mins) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 32. AMAR BHIDE How do you make a new market? (2 mins) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 33. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 34. AMAR BHIDE “Most of what you hear about entrepreneurship is all wrong. It’s not magic; it’s not mysterious; and it has nothing to do with genes. It’s a discipline and, like any discipline, it can be learned.” - Peter F. Drucker 1985 paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 35. 1 Vision paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 36. The Myth of the Visionary Entrepreneur
  • 37. The Road Map AMAR BHIDE 1. Search for opportunity 2. Light blub moment 3. Writes business plan 4. Raises funds 5. Hires great team 6. Builds product 7. Orchestrates big launch 8. Achieves hockey stick growth 9. IPO 10. Retires on island paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 38.
  • 39. Business Plan? Yes! No! 21% 79% paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Bhide (2000)
  • 40. “new ventures launched with formal written business plans do not outperform ones launched without them.” paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Lange, Mollov, Pearlmutter, Singh and Bygrave (2007)
  • 41. Low levels of planning paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Dencker, Gruber, Shah (2009)
  • 42. High levels of planning paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Dencker, Gruber, Shah (2009)
  • 43. No!
  • 44. No!
  • 45. No! No! No!
  • 46. No!
  • 47. Causal Thinking (Selecting between given means to achieve a pre-determined goal) M1 M2 M3 Given Goal M4 M5 M6
  • 48. Causal Thinking Market Research Knowledge Market People Gap Tasks Resources paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 49. Causal Thinking Market Research Knowledge Market People Gap Tasks Resources paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 50. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 51. Casual Thinking Cook Book Outcome Hire Staff Vision Buy Ingredients paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 52. Market Research? 88% 12% Yes! No! paulshawsmith scientific business strategy Source: Inc. 500 Magazine (2010)
  • 53. ???
  • 54. AMAR BHIDE "OK, I need to know which of their various groups of students, trainees, and individuals would be most interested so I can target the audience a little bit more. What other information...I've never done consumer marketing, so I don't really know. I think probably...I think mostly I'd just try to...I would...I wouldn't do all this, actually. I'd just go sell it. I don't believe in market research. Somebody once told me the only thing you need is a customer. Instead of asking all the questions, I'd try and make some sales. I'd learn a lot, you know: which people, what were the obstacles, what were the questions, which prices work better. Even before I started production. So my market research would actually be hands- on actual selling." Source: Sarasavathy (2007) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 55. AMAR BHIDE "Ultimately, the best test of any product is to go to your target market and pretend like it's a real business. You'll find out soon enough if it is or not. You have to take some risks. You can sit and analyze these different markets forever and ever and ever, and you'd get all these wonderful answers, and they still may be wrong. The problem with the businessman type is they spend a lot of time with all their great wisdom and all their spreadsheets and all their Harvard Business Review people, and they'd either become convinced that there's no market at all or that they have the market nailed. And they'd go out there big time, with a lot of expensive advertising and upfront costs, because they're gonna overwhelm the market, and the business would go under." Source: Sarasavathy (2007) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 56. 1 Vision paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 57. 1 Vision paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 58. Bird-in-the-hand paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 59. Effectual Thinking (Imaging a possible new end using a given set of means) Goal Given Means Goal Goal M1 M2 M4 M3 Goal M6 M5 Goal Goal
  • 60. Effectual Thinking Outcome Opportunities Outcome Resources Outcome Knowledge Outcome Outcome People Outcome paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 61. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 62. Effectual Thinking Meal 1 Knowledge of Cooking Meal 2 Ingredients on Hand Meal 3 Equipment Meal 4 Available People I Meal 5 Know Meal 6 paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 63.
  • 64. Effectual Thinking Course Match FaceMash Partner Friends Customer Students paulshawsmith scientific success strategy
  • 65. Novice Expert (Causal) (Effectual)
  • 66.
  • 67.
  • 68.
  • 69. What are the advantages of being means- driven rather than goal driven? (6 mins) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 70. You are not chasing investors. AMAR BHIDE • You are not waiting for the perfect opportunity or perfect set of resources. • You are working with your strengths without having to overcome your weaknesses first. • Good stakeholders want to shape goals, not just provide means. • You are increasing the possible stakeholder who can self- select in your venture. • You are increasing the probability of innovative surprises. • You are increasing the likelihood of finding or creating opportunities that are a better fit for you. • You are increasing the likelihood of even failures being learning experiences that you can recover form faster and build on when you are ready to try again. • You are forcing yourself to get creative with meager resources including slack resources and even waste. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 71. When are goals useful and when are goals harmful? paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 72. Inventory your means Who you Who you What you What you Who you Who you know know know know Are Are Your rolodex Your prior Tastes, knowledge values and preferences Classmates Knowledge Passions from your job Serendipitous Knowledge Hobbies encounters from life The strangers Informal Interests in your life learning, hobbies paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 73. Inventory your means AMAR BHIDE What means did you acquire or build: • As a teenager. • At school. • At university. • In your first, second, etc…. Job • In your private life. • With your hobbies, activities, etc. • From your parents. paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 74. AMAR BHIDE Create a list of all your means Who am I? What do I know? Who do I know? (10 mins with partners) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 75. AMAR BHIDE Come up with at least 3 great business ideas. (10 mins) paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 76. I don’t have a good idea paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 77. Where do ideas come from (in theory): Patent Office Government (CSIR, NRI) Technology Transfer Trade Shows Doctoral Dissertations Invention Expositions Brainstorming paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 78. Where do ideas come from (in practice): Personal satisfaction and dissatisfaction Industry knowledge Outgrowth of hobbies Ideas trust on one by others Acquisition of company or product already started Ideas rejected by employer or other company Very small start, then growth Customer generated ideas paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 79. Assessing Opportunities Is it doable? Is it worth doing? Can I do it? Do I want to do it? paulshawsmith scientific business strategy
  • 80. Feasibility Value Is it doable? Is it worth doing? Technology feasibility Market Financial feasibility Market feasibility Economic feasibility Do I want to do it? Can I do it? What turns me on about it? Personal What will it take to do it? Why do I want to do it? Who else do I need? Exit strategies paulshawsmith scientific business strategy