Emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, IIoT and Blockchain are threatening to take away millions of conventional jobs over the next three decades. They have the potential to create even more jobs for he future. But the structural changes in job markets would be painful and would vary from country to country. This presentation suggests a macro model for India to be ready to face the challenges.

1. Tremors in Job markets and Trifurcation of skill
sets in three decades
(due to Digitisation, Automation, Robotics &
Artificial Intelligence.)
Apr 7 2018
Dr. P. Balasubramanian, Ph.D.
Founder & CEO, Theme Work Analytics, Bangalore
balasubp@gmail.com
IITM BC Alumni Meet *
* An abridged version was presented. Contributions from fellow
alumni T.R.Sankaranarayanan, P.Jayasimha, Shankar Hariharan
and Krishnan Narayanan are acknowledged with gratitude.

2. Tremors in Job markets and Trifurcation of skill
sets in three decades
Synopsys
Automation, Robotics, Analytics and Artificial Intelligence
based technology solutions have been impacting the job
markets for decades now. These impacts are expected to
multiply manifold in the next three decades when newer
technologies such as Autonomous Vehicles and Blockchain
add to the momentum. Starting with mild tremors in the
coming decade, it is projected that major disruptions are
bound to occur subsequently in job skills and job markets
globally. We explore these trends and then project how India
can sense an opportunity and make best use of it by forming
a smart agenda.

3. Oshino, Yamanashi Prefecture, Japan
Fanuc Global HQ
This town has a
population of 9000
people and seven times
more robots
Fanuc has self teaching
robots for bin picking.
They are at 90% accuracy
now. No need for
additional coding. AI is
doing it for them.Robots making Robots
It has a 86000 sf
factory with 4 human
workers supervising at
any given time.
Automation and AI
are cascading

4. IRobot
Google
Touch Bionics
Northrop Grumman
Rethink Robotics
Accuray
Liquid Robotics
Bosch
Qbotix
Prox Dynamics
https://www.fastcompany.com/3026314/the-worlds-
top-10-most-innovative-companies-in-robotics
These firms recruit
human-beings only.
The boundary line in skill sets between humans and AI
devices is getting to be defined sharply.

5. Industry 4.0
The era of cyber physical systems has
begun already
Decision capabilities of routine tasks can be
fully automated now.

6. • IoT, IIoT
• Automation, Robotics, Machine Vision, Speech
Recognition
• Identity Mgt, Network Security, Distributed Networks etal
• AI, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Analytics
• Additive Printing
• GPS, Autonomous Vehicles
• Wearable Technologies
• Blockchain ( Nextgen SC)
Technologies under the hood
Interlocking technologies are accelerating the pace
The era of cyber physical systems has
begun already

7. Identity
Mgt
Robotics
Network
Security
Sensors
Nano Tech
Machine
Vision
Deep
Learning
Speech
Recog Analytics
NLP
Wearable
Tech
IoT, IIoT
Additive
Printing
Autonom.
Vehicles
Blockchain
Tech
Cloud
Computing
Core and Common Technology developments are fueling
many application areas
GPS
Mobility
Mobility

8. Technologies Maturity Timeline
2010-20 2030-402020-30
IoT, IIoT
Autonom.
Vehicles
Blockchain
Tech
Analytics
Additive
Printing
Machine
LearningSpeech
Recog
Machine
Vision
Sensors
Wear
Tech
NLP
Artificial
Intelligence
While components of AI would mature within a decade, AI in full form
is projected to be ready after two decades. AV technology with
accelerated development pace is expected to make major impact in
next decade. Blockchain will find its day two decades from now.

9. These skills sets
are already in
demand now.
They are likely to
become essential
for all analytical
functions across
domains in a
decade.

10. Tremors in Job markets and Trifurcation of skill
sets in three decades
Interlocking
technologies are
eliminating
factory jobs;
making many
office jobs
redundant.
But creating
millions of new
field jobs
Three technologies with immense potential for impact on
jobs and society are AI, AV and Blockchain.

11. USA Jobs at High Risks over two decades
Most Vulnerable
Retail Salesperson
Fast food and counter workers
Secretaries & Admin Assistants
Cashiers
Office Clerks
15 million jobs would be lost
by 2025
Least Vulnerable
Registered Nurses
School Teachers
General Managers
Software Developers
First Line Supervisors
Routine physical and cognitive function tasks face the highest risk
of elimination. Jobs with substantive human interaction, coordination
and tech development are projected to grow.

12. “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained : Workforce Transitions in a time of Automation “ Mckinsey Global Institute report Dec 2017
Under midpoint scenario for automation
adoption 2016-30 Jobs Lost, Jobs modified
Global
China India
USAGermany
15 % of
work force
= 400m
24 %
9 %16 %
23 %
Transitioning Work Force =75m to 375 m
50m
60 % of the jobs have automation possibility of atleast 30 % of the tasks
A longer term scenario….
The Mckinsey study with a wide scope estimates the
loss of nearly 400 m jobs globally by 2030

13. Under slow & rapid scenario for automation
adoption 2016-30: New Jobs created
“Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained : Workforce Transitions in a time of Automation“ Mckinsey Global Institute report Dec 2017
New Jobs
Created due to
income growth,
demographic
changes,
technology and
infrastructure
investments
555-890 m
The Mackinsey study projects a Net New Jobs Creation of
90-150 m by 2030

14. Laboratory Vs Field Jobs in
Photography: Australian Experience
https://theconversation.com/automation-wont-destroy-jobs-but-it-will-change-them-55318 Diagram Credit: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Catalogue Number 6291.0.55.003
Illustration of Change in Job types
The two decades of experience in Australian
photographic job market reveals no net job losses.

15. Autonomous Vehicles (AV) and their job impact
No of jobs in USA related to driving : 15.5 million
No. of Highway Truck drivers : 3.8 million
Mail Carriers, Fire Fighters, EMC etc : 11.7 million
2015 data from the US Dept of Commerce
No of jobs likely to be eliminated per year : 300,000
Projected direct job loss till 2030 : 1.5 m
Truck driving, warfare related vehicles driving,
hazardous area exploration jobs are in high risk of
elimination

16. Autonomous Vehicles and their job impact
New Jobs Creation 2016-2030
Mechanics
Roadside Repair Technicians
Warehouse Workers
Vehicle Inspectors
1. Perception Software Engineer
2. Strategic Account Manager
3. Field Service Technician
4. Industrial Engineer
5. Customer Success Field Representative
6. Field Autonomy Engineer
7. Functional Safety Engineer
8. Autonomous Navigation Software Engineer
9. Robotics Engineer
10. Electrical Engineer
Yet sufficient number of new jobs are expected to be
created to absorb all direct job losses. They are field jobs
and tech development jobs.

17. Blockchain Technology will mature in 15 years and
its impact will be significant in 3 decades.
◆ Accountants and Book Keepers in Financial Institutions
◆ Supply Chain coordinators in Industries
◆ Contract Custodians in Legal fraternities
◆ Certification,Verification functions in the Education Sector
◆ Healthcare record maintenance firms
◆ And numerous intermediaries in many sectors
The technology is yet to mature. It is currently at design
and development stage to sort out issues of transparency,
trust and data crunch efficiency. Hence no major job
losses are projected for the period 2016-2030.
Jobs under threat ( long run)
Instead numerous Tech jobs are likely to be created during the
period of 2016-2030.

18. In summary…The Global Changes during 2016-30
There won’t be any net
job losses globally
But regional disparities
are bound to happen
The structure and
content of most jobs
would undergo
changes
Large scale retraining
programs have to be
mounted
Human to machine
interaction will be
redefined
Skill sets trifurcation
will begin

19. The decade of 2030 and beyond
Cyber physical systems become
pervasive – Can we take orders
from machines?
AI embedded systems become
ubiquitous
Job tremors would be visible
across many countries
Painful transition to the new
economy
Massive training and retraining
with new skill sets needed
Periodic retraining on the job
would become the norm
The impact on developed countries would be high since they need to
automate to compensate for shrinking working age population. India on the
other hand would face unique challenges

20. Good News for India
Net Job Gain is projected over
this period 2016-30
Challenge for India
Massive skills training is
required
Can the Giant wake up and run ?

21. The Demographic Dividend for
India in three decades

22. Current Scenario
The population pyramid is giving way to an even distribution
across all age groups in most developed countries. China is
going that way too. But not India.

23. Changes in structure by 2035
India would be the most populous country in the world. It will
also have a sizeable working age population. China, like
many developed countries will have a large number of senior
citizens.

24. Birth rate in India would start to decline warping the pyramid
at the bottom. Yet India would continue to have the
demographic advantage.
Changes in structure by 2035

25. China and most of the developed countries will
have a shrinking working population
They would have a large aged population to be
taken care of with living and healthcare support
India will stand apart in its demographic
characteristics
India can have the advantage of a large
population trained in new age skills to provide
support services globally

26. India can have the advantage of a large
population trained in new age skills to provide
support services globally but….
Cultural and language barriers would be
formidable to cross while providing these services.
Demand for job and wage protection would
raise its head in every other country thus
tightening the worker migration rules
Hence the challenge for India would be to deliver
these services remotely.
Hence the set of services chosen to be provided
globally need to be low on demand for such skills.

27. Conceive & Design
Implement & Maintain
Provide Services
The Skill Sets Trifurcation Model
Generic
Products and
Services
Apply at Specific
Client sites
To end
customers
Manufacturing and Services jobs of
the future in any country can be
trifurcated as shown here

28. The Skill Sets Trifurcation Model
Layer Skill Sets Needed
Employment
Potential
The employment generation potential
differs vastly from one skill level to
another

29. What role can India play?
Conceive &
Design
Design Thinking,
Conceptualization,
Tech Architecture,
Parametrization, Build
Skills
1X ? ✔
Implement
& Maintain
Domain Knowledge,
Configuring & Testing,
Tech Integration, User
Training
20X ✔ ✔
Provide
Services
System Operation,
Client Liaison,
Coordination, Problem
Solving
400X ✖ ✔
Global Market Local Market
India can build on its Technology
Services skill sets and market advantage
to play a dominant role in the middle
layer globally.

30. What role can India play?
Conceive &
Design
Design Thinking,
Conceptualization,
Tech Architecture,
Parametrization, Build
Skills
1X ? ✔
Implement
& Maintain
Domain Knowledge,
Configuring & Testing,
Tech Integration, User
Training
20X ✔ ✔
Provide
Services
System Operation,
Client Liaison,
Coordination, Problem
Solving
400X ✖ ✔
Global Market Local Market
India can build on its Technology
Services skill sets and market advantage
to play a dominant role in the middle
layer globally.

31. What role can India play?
Conceive &
Design
Design Thinking,
Conceptualization,
Tech Architecture,
Parametrization, Build
Skills
1X ? ✔
Implement
& Maintain
Domain Knowledge,
Configuring & Testing,
Tech Integration, User
Training
20X ✔ ✔
Provide
Services
System Operation,
Client Liaison,
Coordination, Problem
Solving
400X ✖ ✔
Global Market Local Market
India needs a higher level of exposure to
global markets and to develop its
entrepreneurial ecosystem to Conceive &
Design Products & Services for the
global markets.

32. What role can India play?
Conceive &
Design
Design Thinking,
Conceptualization,
Tech Architecture,
Parametrization, Build
Skills
1X ? ✔
Implement
& Maintain
Domain Knowledge,
Configuring & Testing,
Tech Integration, User
Training
20X ✔ ✔
Provide
Services
System Operation,
Client Liaison,
Coordination, Problem
Solving
400X ✖ ✔
Global Market Local Market
Protectionism, Language and Cultural
barriers would by and large limit the
bottom layer jobs to country citizens

33. What role can India play?
Conceive &
Design
Design Thinking,
Conceptualization,
Tech Architecture,
Parametrization, Build
Skills
1X ? ✔
Implement
& Maintain
Domain Knowledge,
Configuring & Testing,
Tech Integration, User
Training
20X ✔ ✔
Provide
Services
System Operation,
Client Liaison,
Coordination, Problem
Solving
400X ✖ ✔
Global Market Local Market
However all Layers are wide open in local
markets for Indian citizens. They present
immense opportunity for job creation.

34. Pramit Bhattacharya www.livemint.com 12 Apr 2018
Which are the top sectors that
generate employment in India?
During past 25 years…
Substantial number of jobs
have been created in
construction and other low
end services jobs.
Farming sector has lost
many jobs and mass
migration to urban centres
has taken place,
insufficient growth in
manufacturing sector and
its low competitive
strength in global economy
India’s current
scenario

35. India’s Challenges for the next three decades
Generate employment in millions
every month
Improve per capita income year on
year to meet growing aspirations
Disperse growing population away
from urban centres; strengthen
rural and suburban economies
Strengthen the manufacturing
base to increase output, improve
quality and enhance export share
Retain the global technology
services lead in coming decades
Build and Leverage tech based
skills to enhance global market
share
Technology can be made best use of to realize the
first four non technical goals stated above

36. India Agenda, in short, for the next three decades
Build capabilities to be the global
( remote) management and
maintenance service providers for
Products and Services
Build strong and multifaceted
manufacturing sector for local
markets
Create cluster of Smart Cities in
each district of the country
Mastering the new age
technologies is
imperative
Revamping curricula
across all educational
segments
Coordinating the
Policy, Infrastructure
and Enterprise
initiatives
India has to build on these themes and
develop a blue print for action