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PA N D O X



  M A r K e t I n f OrM At I On f rOM PA ndOx – One Of eu r O Pe’S leAd In G H Otel PrO Perty COMPAn IeS   n O . 2 • 200 9




Expect a slow
recovery!
What’s hot in F&B
Market information from Pandox




                                                                                                                                         Hote
expect a slow recovery!
The world is starting to look like a slightly better place now for the hotel industry since the credit crunch first hit. The financial
market’s view of our business reflects this. In a report from Goldman Sachs – which downgraded the sector in 2006 and has
maintained a negative standpoint ever since – the target price for the hotel industry has been upgraded from Sell to Neutral.
Starwood has even been upgraded to Buy. This fundamental analysis is based on volumes stabilising first. Some of the
major markets in the USA have started to show a slowdown in the rate of decline and the chances of occupancy evening out
towards the end of the year have improved. Moreover, it’s assumed that the amount of new hotel capacity resulting from the
credit crunch will be reduced over the next few years. All in all, this means that we could be seeing growth in RevPAR for the
USA by the end of 2010.

Gradual development
The analysis is interesting and the argumentation stringent. It’s also supported by experiences from earlier recoveries.
Of course, this opinion is very pleasing; but for the people who believe that their profitability issues will soon be a thing            May
of the past, there could be a trap awaiting.
    A normal recovery takes place over a number of stages. Firstly, volumes even out while prices continue to fall. Once                 Just like living at the zoo?! Lindner
the increase in demand is stable, occupancy starts gradually to increase. From this development phase, it normally                       Park & Resort recently opened its new
takes a year before prices start to rise again and RevPAR really starts to pick up. Anyone hoping to see income levels                   zoo hotel in Hamburg. This is their
back at 2008 levels soon is going to be disappointed. My cautious guess is that this will take at least five years from the              32nd hotel and it has 158 rooms and
time volumes start to rise. The Goldman Sachs report contains nothing about this. Nor can I find anything about how                      suites. This hotel is fitted out accord-
much of the anticipated demand is to materialise into profitability and increase cash flows. Looking at the current trend,               ing to a range of themes, all taken
the decline is still continuing. The only market showing a slowdown in the rate of decline is the high-price segment in                  from the animal kingdom. The scent
New York, which is normally early to react to changes in economic climate.                                                               of dried grass wafts over the Africa
                                                                                                                                         floor. The floor inspired by Asia is
So who wins?                                                                                                                             humid and smells exotic. The spa
The first conclusion made by the report is that the world seems, once again, to be surviving. And once economic activity                 section is inspired by the Arctic.
is on the increase again, demand in the hotel industry will rise – as is normal. The other conclusion is that it’ll take a
long time for the hotel industry to return to acceptable profitability levels.
    So where are the winners in this sector? Well, the companies which have mainly management and franchise agree-                       Rezidor is opening its Park Inn Don-
ments have low risk built into their models. They’ll see greater income via their fees when RevPAR rises. But at the                     caster in May. This hotel, with its 87
same time, the upside is limited. Hotel companies with rental agreements seem to have greater potential; that is, pro-                   rooms, is in the business district of
vided that they have efficient operating models. When the market turns, they’ll have good potential for improvement.                     the town; and it’s situated within walk-
Passive financial owners with no operating expertise of their own risk losing out. These are in the hands of major inter-                ing distance of the Keepmoat football
national hotel companies which have little incentive to promote the interests of their owners in respect of improved cash                stadium. This used to be a Purple
flows. This requires emphasis on day-to-day operation with high levels of cost control, handling of special interests such               Hotel.
as trade unions, and active support being given to local management teams. Often these companies are lacking exper-
tise or resources in these fields. Nowadays they prefer to focus on brand care and what are known as brand standards.
    So what options are available in order to buck the negative profitability trend and protect assets? One model is that                CitizenM is opening its second hotel
the banks are becoming more active. Maybe we’ll see a new wave of distressed assets in early 2010?                                       in Amsterdam. 215 rooms over a five-
                                                                                                                                         storey property located in the Princess
Separate ways                                                                                                                            district between the World Trade
One of the companies that has attracted attention is the Four Seasons Hotel, which was recently sued by owners in the                    Center and the heart of the city.
USA. According to what we’ve been told, there have been constant refusals to adapt prices and outgoings to these hard                    CitizenM – short for “citizen mobile” –
times, and so profitability for the owners has been wiped out. According to Four Seasons, the motivation behind this is                  is aimed at modern individualists;
that their brand and standards must never be jeopardised. A spokesman for this luxury brand said in a report that “the                   anyone from people travelling on busi-
owner has to stop running amok, we have more important things to worry about then chasing costs”. This is an example                     ness to tourists fascinated by culture.
of what happens when brand integrity and the interests of the owners go their separate ways, and it shows what can
happen when there’s an imbalance between risk and return. It’s not entirely unexpected that companies operating in
the luxury segment are finding it hard to adapt and establish a flexible operating model - the people responsible for their              Rezidor is establishing itself at the
investments are being hit hard!                                                                                                          Gare du Midi railway station in
    So it seems that Goldman Sachs are correct in upgrading the sector. At the same time, there’s a lot of cleaning work                 Brussels. This hotel will have more
to be done in the industry before the whole thing blows over. It may be worth reminding everyone that adjustments in                     than 140 rooms and aims to welcome
the financial markets focus on actual economic changes which will take place a number of years into the future.                          its first guests in early 2011.

this year’s Hotel Market day
I’d also like to take this opportunity to welcome partners, clients, banks, advisors, formers of public opinion and media to             June
our next Hotel Market Day. As defined by tradition, it’ll be taking place at the Hilton Stockholm Slussen, make sure you
mark 18 November in your diaries. This year’s main theme will be “Short market trends – what will 2010 be like?”                         Pandox is buying Vildmarkshotellet in
                                                                                                                                         Kolmården from Parks & Resorts
All the best,                                                                                                                            Scandinavia AB. The hotel is situated
Anders Nissen                                                                                                                            outside Norrköping – some 150 km
                                                                                                                                         south of Stockholm – at Kolmården,
PS. Stefan Lövgren, one of the biggest and best handball pros in the world, has come to the end of his active career.                    the largest zoo in Scandinavia. The
Stefan was thanked for his supreme efforts at a packed arena in Kiel, where he’s been playing for ten years; an out-                     hotel has 213 rooms, a large confer-
standing setting which few Swedes get to experience. As a huge fan of handball, I’d like to thank Stefan for all the top                 ence facility and a recently completed
quality entertainment he’s given us all for more than 15 years as a member of the Swedish team, with four golds at                       spa.
European level and one World Championship gold!

                                                                                                                                                           Courtyard by Marriott
                                                                                                                                                           is being launched in
Pandox Upgrade – market information from Pandox – published approximately three times a year.                                                              Turkey. The first
                                                                                                                                                           Courtyard, with 262
editorial: Anders Nissen, Annelie Sundström Aguilar, Michaela Borg, Anette Paulsson                                                      rooms, is opening at Istanbul’s inter-
Pandox AB • Box 5364 • 102 49 Stockholm • Tel.: +46 (0) 8 506 205 50 • Fax: +46 (0) 8 506 205 70 • E-mail: pandox@pandox.com             national airport. The hotel is designed
Visiting address: Grev Turegatan 44                                                                                                      primarily for European business trav-
Graphic design and production: n3 Kommunikation                                                                                          ellers who are looking for all their
Photographs: Ulf Blomberg, Shutterstock and others.                                                                                      home comforts and who appreciate
Printing: JMS Mediasystem, September 2009. Reproduction only by permission from Pandox.                                                  modern design.
Cover photo: Shutterstock




Upgrade can be ordered from Pandox or read at www.pandox.com                               2
Market information from Pandox




l NeWS
                                                                                             The market on the market




                                                                                             Low liquidity
                                                                                             in the market
                                              July                                           The global transaction market nosedived the first six
                                              Marriott will be opening a Courtyard
                                                                                             months of 2009. This reduction was 78 % lower com-
                                              hotel in Romania in 2011. The hotel            pared to the first six months of 2008. So its development is
                                              will be located in the heart of
                                              Bucharest, within walking distance of
                                                                                             approaching the level seen in the first six months of 2002,
                                              the JW Marriott Hotel Bucharest, and           which to date was the lowest over the past decade. How-
                                              have 187 rooms.                                ever, the trend seems to have been bucked slightly in the
 Kosta Boda Art Hotel will be opening                                                        second quarter.
 its doors for the first time in late June.   Rezidor is opening its 50th hotel in
 Glass artists at Kosta Boda have             Germany in July: the Radisson Blu              The global transaction volume over the second quarter increased by 3 % com-
 designed various parts of the hotel.         Hof Hotel in Baden Baden. This prop-           pared with the first quarter of 2009. This may be an indicator of brighter times
 The hotel has 104 rooms and suites,          erty dates back to 1638 and was origi-         ahead, although it’s too early to be too optimistic. The figures for the second
 all differing in nature. In the centre of    nally a Cappuccino order monastery,            quarter are the first to have shown an increase since 2007.
 the hotel is a spa designed by Kjell         but it was converted into an hotel in              Europe, the Middle East and Africa represent the biggest decline in transac-
 Engman and Åsa Jungnelius. The               the early 19th century. The hotel now          tions in absolute figures over the first six months of the year. Sales closed at USD
 entire hotel acts as an art gallery, and     has 139 rooms and seven conference             1.9 billion. This was a decrease of 76 % compared with the first six months of
 all the art is for sale.                     and banqueting rooms.                          2008. In America, sales for the same period amounted to USD 1.0 billion, a
                                                                                             decrease of no less than 86 %. Asia represented the lowest transaction volume,
                                                                                             with USD 0.9 billion; equivalent to a decline of 55 % compared with the pre-
 Rezidor is opening a new Radisson Blu        Hilton is opening its second hotel in          vious year.
 in Bad Reichenhall in Germany in late        Romania, this time in the town of                  Of the total number of transactions that took place, only 13 exceeded USD
 June. This property, which is located in     Sibiu. This former spa and resort has          100 million, compared with 34 over the first six months of 2008. This is due
 a large, exotic park, is an old Grand        been renovated and converted into a            mainly to the fact that it’s still difficult to attract finance for major deals, particu-
 Hotel building dating back to 1846.          115-room hotel.                                larly across national borders.
 The hotel has 152 rooms and suites.
                                                                                             Still lots of pressure
                                              Rezidor is opening its second Park             However, people in the market believe that transaction volumes will increase
 Marriott is opening its third Courtyard      Inn in Wroclaw, Poland. The hotel will         over the second half of 2009, primarily because distressed assets should
 hotel in Russia. The plan is for the         be opening early 2012, in good time            appear on the market to a greater extent. At the same time, there are issues talk-
 Courtyard by Marriott Paveletskaya,          before the start of the UEFA Cup               ing against this. The RevPAR development for the hotel industry will be under a
 13 storeys high, to open in 2010 with        tournament in Poland and Ukraine.              lot of pressure this autumn, too. This means that potential investors will con-
 around 170 rooms. The hotel is being         The hotel will have 206 rooms.                 tinue to feel uncertain of the earning ability of the hotel object, and hence of the
 built in south-east Moscow in one of                                                        value of the hotel property. In addition, getting finance will continue to be diffi-
 the international business districts not                                                    cult because of the cutbacks on the capital market. If investors are able to get
 far from Paveletskaya railway station.       First Hotels and Thon Hotels                   finance at all, it’ll be expensive on account of the lack of access to capital, and
                                              are starting a partnership in                  partly because the risk premium for lending for hotel investments is still high.
                                              sales, distribution and mar-
 Scandic is establishing a presence in        keting. This partnership will                  new hotels in the pipeline
 Karlskrona, south of Sweden. The             get off the ground in January                  Despite the global downturn, hotels are being developed and built all over the
 180-room hotel will be opening in the        2010 and include 46 First                      world to an extent never seen before. And this is because most investment deci-
 spring of 2010 and have an architec-         Hotels and 53 Thon Hotels.                     sions were made before the downturn actually hit. In Europe, key markets such
 ture inspired by the sea. The fittings       The partnership will not                       as Moscow, London and Berlin are reporting the biggest number of rooms under
 are based on the colour blue, stone,         affect ownership.                              construction. Of the total of 94 695 rooms being built in Europe, 5 127 are in
 heather and a shape reminiscent of a                                                        Moscow, 4 968 are in London and 4 720 are in Berlin.
 sail.                                                                                           There are currently 463 hotel projects in Africa and the Middle East which
                                              Rezidor is opening its seventh Park            will result in a total of 124 409 new rooms. There are a few countries dominating
                                              Inn in Norway. Park Inn Steinkjer will         the market in the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates is responsible for the
 Choice is buying Nordic Hotels in            have 110 rooms and be opening in               single biggest amount of new development, with 169 hotels and more than
 Stockholm but retaining the brand.           early 2011. With this, Rezidor will            58 000 rooms, followed by Saudi Arabia with 42 projects in the pipeline. The
 This since the guests want different         have some 6000 rooms in Norway.                key markets of Dubai have 33 319 rooms being planned and constructed, Abu
 products, not standardised hotels that                                                      Dhabi has 11 196 and Jeddah has 2 979; and for the most part, luxury hotels
 all look the same. This purchase will                                                       are being built. Asia currently has 227 567 rooms under construction over 969
 give Choice a further 542 rooms in
 Stockholm, making it the biggest
                                              August                                         hotels. China and India represent the majority of projects; China with 108 346
                                                                                             rooms and India with 45 323 rooms. Of these, more than 60 % are in the luxury
 chain in the city.                           Home Properties is buying the                  hotel category.
                                              Copperhill Mountain Lodge luxury
                                              hotel in Åre, ski resort in northern           So what about business?
 InterContinental Hotel Group is open-        Sweden. A rental agreement has                 The US is continuing to dominate the construction market, and as things stand
 ing its first Crowne Plaza in Portugal.      already been signed with Choice                at present it has more than 500 000 rooms in production despite the market
 Hotel Crowne Plaza Vilamoura will be         Hotels concerning the running of the           plummeting by 24 % compared with June 2008. Budget hotels represent the
 opening in January 2010. The hotel is        hotel. This hotel is some 19 000 sq m          greatest reduction, with more than 50 % since June 2008.
 located right next to the beach and not      in area, with over 112 suites with views           But the really interesting question is: just how many projects have been
 far from the famous Casino Vilamoura.        over the mountains and Åresjön lake.           launched in 2009, and on what business foundations?




                                                                                         3
Market information from Pandox




Focus on the industry


                           First six months of 2009:

                 Bleak
              hotel market
   It’s been a bleak first six months to 2009, with an extensive international downturn which also seems to
 be protracted. The hotel market in the US had been in recession for 20 months up to last June. The longest
 recession ever experienced before – in the early 1980s – lasted for 21 months. The question is whether the
          tide will turn now, or whether we have to slop around on the bottom for a little while longer?



uS first in cycle                                                                      fallen by 6 %, and stand at GBP 122 as at 30 June. Occupancy in London for
The American market – which is first in the hotel economic cycle – showed a            the first six months of the year closed at 78 %. This is equivalent to a reduction
decline in occupancy of minus 11 % for the first six months compared with the          of just under 1 % compared with the same period last year, which means that
same period for 2008. Occupancy remained at 55 %. The average price for the            RevPAR closed at GBP 96. London demonstrated further decline over the sec-
same period fell to USD 99, which is equivalent to a reduction of 9 % compared         ond quarter. RevPAR fell by 8 % compared with the same period in 2008, which
with last year. This means that RevPAR for the entire US fell by 19 % over the         was due largely to lower prices. June alone demonstrated better figures as occu-
first six months.                                                                      pancy actually increased by 2 % compared with June 2008. However, room
    A more detailed analysis of the second quarter shows that RevPAR was down          prices are still under pressure, so RevPAR for the month closed at minus 6 %.
by almost 20 % compared with the same quarter last year. Prices have fallen by             Germany – which saw a high national demand for hotel rooms in the autumn
10 %, while occupancy for the quarter was down 11 %.                                   of 2008 and so fared better – has now joined the general downturn. For the
    The tendency in some of the major cities in the US is the same – RevPAR is         period to 30 June, Berlin closed at 64 % occupancy, which is 4 % lower than for
continuing to worsen over the second quarter, but at a slower rate.                    the same period in 2008. The average price was EUR 82, which was 10 % lower
    As far as the various segments are concerned, the luxury segment is seeing         than in the first six months of 2008. RevPAR in Berlin closed at just under EUR
the worst effects, with a 28 % decline in RevPAR for the six-month period, fol-        53 for the six-month period. This is a reduction of 13 % compared with the
lowed by the resort segment, which has seen a decline of 22 %. Development is          same period in 2008. Berlin’s second quarter in 2009 is continuing to show a
the same in all segments irrespective of region.                                       decline. RevPAR has fallen by 21 %, largely due to lower prices. The decline in
    New York has been affected the most during the downturn, albeit from high          price for the quarter is minus 17 %. This pattern is also evident in other major
levels. Occupancy has fallen by 11 %, while at the same time prices fell by no         cities in Germany, with two-figure reductions in RevPAR. Hamburg is one of few
less than 24 % over the first six months of the year. The change in RevPAR com-        exceptions that’s fared better to date, with a RevPAR decline of minus 7 % up to
pared with the same period last year amounts to minus 32 %. Occupancy                  30 June.
closed at 73 %, and the average price closed at USD 199.                                   Paris was also trapped by the downward spiral in the spring. Occupancy for
    Over the second quarter RevPAR fell by 33 % in New York, and this is due           the first six months of the year fell by 9 % compared with the same period in
mainly to the enormous pressure on prices. In June, the decline worsened still         2008 and closed the six-month period at 72 %. Prices fell by 11 % and now
further with RevPAR for the month at minus 35 % compared with June 2008.               stand at EUR 215 on average, compared with EUR 242 to 30 June last year.
Occupancy fell by 6 % and average prices by 30 %. Given this development,              RevPAR for the first six months of the year now stands at EUR 155, representing
we maybe should be asking who’ll be wanting to pay to stay in all those new            a decline of 19 %. The second quarter of 2009 is showing a continuation in this
hotel rooms being built in New York at the moment? It’s estimated that more            downturn, and that room prices in particular are what are forcing down RevPAR.
than 10 000 new rooms will be opened in 2010.                                              The first six months of the year in Brussels closed at a RevPAR of minus
                                                                                       17 %, due equally to falling occupancy and lower prices. This trend has been
europe following the trend                                                             underpinned during the second quarter, with RevPAR closing at minus 24 %.
Europe is following in the footsteps of the US, and the decline seen in the                The major cities in Eastern Europe are reporting even gloomier figures. Riga
autumn has accelerated in the spring. Of Europe’s capital cities, London has           is one of the cities that has faced the very toughest climate for hotels over the
fared best throughout the credit crunch to date. For the first six months of the       first six months of 2009. RevPAR has fallen by 40 %, due to lower prices and
year, RevPAR has fallen by just under 7 %, and most of this decline is explained       reduced occupancy in equal measure. Both Prague and Warsaw have had a
away by lower room prices. Averages prices have been under pressure and                RevPAR of minus 30 % for the same period.




                                                                                   4
Market information from Pandox




Risk of further rain showers in the hotel market – make sure you’re kitted out to brave the elements.




     Vienna has shown one of the more dramatic declines over the second quar-                      regional cities in Sweden also in decline
ter. Average prices are down 38 %, while at the same time occupancy is down                        The regional cities in Sweden are following the general trend – a decline right
11 %. This means that every hotel room is earning minus 45 % less. Where did                       the way along the line. Gothenburg’s occupancy for the first six months of 2008
all the cash-rich tourists go?                                                                     stood at 65 %, which then fell to 58 % over the first six months of 2009. Average
                                                                                                   prices have been maintained fairly well. This means that the entire RevPAR
Scandinavia also struggling                                                                        decline of 9 % is explained by lower occupancy.
Even the Scandinavian countries are struggling in the global landslide. Worst                         Malmö is the regional city that’s come off best so far. Up to 30 June, RevPAR
affected is Copenhagen, which for the first six months of the year lost 12 % in                    here has fallen by just under 4 %. The entire decline in RevPAR is due to the
occupancy, with an average of 57 % for the period. The price has fallen by 8 %                     fact that occupancy fell from 64 % for the first six months of 2008 to 61 % to
to DKK 854, giving a RevPAR for the period of DKK 485. This is a reduction of                      30 June 2009.
almost 20 % compared with the first six months of 2008. Over the second quar-
ter, the rate of decline increased and RevPAR for the quarter stood at minus
23 %.
    Other Scandinavian capitals are demonstrating similar patterns, i.e. an
increase in the rate of decline. Up to 30 June, Helsinki closed with a reduction                   Explanation:
in RevPAR of minus 13 %. Stockholm and Oslo closed at a decline of minus                           RevPAR: Revenue per available room. YTD: Year to date
12 %.




revPAr CHAnGeS In lOCAl CurrenCy

World                                                 6 months, %     2nd quarter 2009, %          Scandinavia                                         6 months, %        2nd quarter 2009, %
New York                                                       –32                       –33       Copenhagen                                                    –20                     –23
London                                                          –7                        –8       Malmö                                                          –4                      –6
Dubai                                                          –36                       –34       Gothenburg                                                     –9                     –11
New Delhi                                                      –42                       –38       Oslo                                                          –12                     –15
Sydney                                                         –13                       –14       Stockholm                                                     –12                     –20
Beijing                                                        –46                       –45       Helsinki                                                      –13                     –17
Tokyo                                                          –10                       –11
São Paulo                                                       –5                        –6
Buenos Aires                                                   –19                       –25       (Sources: STR Global, SCB, Statistics Norway and Statistics Finland)




                                                                                               5
Market information from Pandox




            Pandox market barometer
                                                                             June 2009
The market barometer indicates the selected cities’ position in the business cycle. The assessment is based on an analysis of each city. Consideration is given to
macro-developments, the trends of the hotel industry and business conditions, how the hotel market is evolving, and the extent to which the hotel property market is
developing and has liquidity. It is important to note that the hotel business cycle is the same in its pattern but different in time.


BrIef deSCrIPtIOn Of tHe VArIOuS PHASeS Of tHe HOtel BuSIneSS CyCle:

GrOWtH b Occupancy is rising relatively rapidly and rates have begun to increase.             WeAKenInG deClIne c The decline tapers off and RevPAR gradually levels out.
High potential and low risk.                                                                  This phase is characterised by some potential and high risk.

PeAK h Occupancy continues to rise and rates increase above inflation. Strong potential       leVel Out v Occupancy rises and rates remain unchanged. High potential with a
and low risk that gradually increases to high risk.                                           diminishing risk.

deClIne x Occupancy and rates decline due to lower demand or excess capacity.
This phase is characterised by low potential and high risk.




SWedeN
PeAK h                                                                                                                                                                      x   deClINe
Malmö, Jönköping, Umeå                                                                                             Lund, Helsingborg, Gothenburg, Stockholm, Stockholm 5*,
                                                                                                                                         Karlstad, Uppsala, Sundsvall, Luleå

GRoWtH b                                                                                                                                                      c   deCReASING deClINe



                                                                                                                                                                     v leVellING oUt



Comments: Sweden
Most of the major Swedish towns are in the decline phase of the economic cycle.               coverage is more or less in line with the corresponding period last year, which
Stockholm 5* is seeing the steepest downward trend. RevPAR development over                   means that RevPAR is still continuing to increase slightly.
a rolling 12-month period to 30 June 2009 stands at minus 12 %, and the entire                    If we look at a shorter trend – over a rolling 3-month period between April and
decline is explained by prices that have been forced down. The major city munic-              June – the rate of decline in most towns and cities is increasing. The decline is
ipalities of Stockholm and Gothenburg come next, with a RevPAR reduction of                   greatest in the municipality of Stockholm, with a reduction in RevPAR of 19 %
minus 8 % and minus 9 % respectively. Other cities have also passed the peak,                 for the period compared with the same period in 2008. This is followed by
and in most cases both coverage and prices are on the decline.                                Stockholm 5* on –18 %. Jönköping and Umeå are balancing out, while Luleå is
    There are, however, some shining examples. Malmö, Jönköping and Umeå                      demonstrating a RevPAR of plus 5 % for the period, due entirely to rising aver-
are three cities that are still peaking over the rolling 12-month period. The                 age prices.
reason for this is that average prices are still rising slightly. At the same time,                                                                                     (Sources: SCB)




INteRNAtIoNAl
PeAK h                                                                                                                                                                      x   deClINe
                                                                                                                    Helsinki, Oslo, Copenhagen, Berlin, Amsterdam, Brussels,
                                                                                                                                              London, Paris, Vienna, Prague

GRoWtH b                                                                                                                                                      c   deCReASING deClINe



                                                                                                                                                                     v leVellING oUt



Comments: international
All the major cities in Europe are in decline. Looking at developments over a roll-              If we look at a shorter trend, over three months – between April and June – the
ing 12-month period – on average up to 30 June 2009 – Vienna and Prague are                   rate of decline is increasing across the board. Vienna and Prague are subject to
showing the greatest RevPAR decline of minus 23 % and minus 25 % respec-                      the most powerful declines here, too, with negative RevPAR for the period of
tively. In Vienna, this is due mainly to falling prices. In Prague, on the other              –45 % and –34 % respectively compared with the same period in 2008.
hand, it’s due to both falling prices and falling coverage in almost equal mea-
sure. Paris and Amsterdam aren’t far behind, both showing a decline of 19 %
for the period. London has come off best to date, with a decline of 4 % for the                                     (Sources: STR Global, SCB, Statistics Norway and Statistics Finland)
12-month period.

                                                                                                                                                                        * Five star hotel




                                                                                          6
Market information from Pandox




   Trends of our time


   Not on the menu
   F&B trends don’t follow the economic cycle. In times
   when we need to economise, we face some extremely
   tough demands. It’s not enough for everything to be
   green and organic; we also have to be able to offer
   things that don’t actually exist.

   Every day we hear conversations of whether or not the credit crunch has bot-
   tomed out. But even if it has, there’s no economic boom just around the cor-
   ner. The road back to where we used to be will be a tough one, and in the
   hotel industry prices are key. Even if demand starts to stabilise, people will
   still be keeping a firm hold on those purse strings.
        So people are becoming more aware of the economy. At the same time,
   surveys show that people spend less money on alcohol in a recession. Drink-
   ing overall might not be reduced, but sales of alcohol in restaurants and bars
   fall while drinking at home increases. This really doesn’t match up with one
   of the biggest trends in the restaurant industry for 2009. Alcohol came very
   high up in the annual survey “What’s hot? Chef’s Survey”, run by the Ameri-
   can National Restaurant Association. Well – not alcohol per se, but alcohol              Mandarin Oriental Tokyo
   as an ingredient in cooking, and also in the form of specially composed
   drinks and also organic wines.
                                                                                           Secrets on the menu
   A drink all of your own                                                                 Other trends that seem familiar are the multifunctional lobby containing
   The so called signature drinks are really hot in this category. The most                everything from a bar and restaurant to somewhere for business travellers to
   famous is James Bond’s Martini, which has to be served shaken, not stirred.             meet. There’s also the more relaxed restaurant environment, with staff who
   The drink should demonstrate who you are; the description of a Martini as a             dress down, rather than up. Interesting and fun news are secrets on the
   sophisticated, elegant drink suits our action hero. Nowadays, every self-               menu and less is more. Secret dishes which you won’t find on the menu and
   respecting restaurant and hotel – and even bartender – has to have one or               signature drinks made to unknown recipes are sneaking into the industry.
   more signature drinks. 33 % of chefs that where asked, ranked signature                 “Less is more” is really nothing new, but making something of it is. A small
   cocktails as the hottest drinks trend for 2009. In second place came what               area and a short menu are hot property right now, and big despite their
   are known as functional cocktails – put together from a health perspective              diminutive size.
   – and third came the matching of food with alcohol.
       As far as food is concerned, the green, environmentally friendly alterna-           Choose wisely
   tives are no longer a trend – they’re a must! Locally produced, organic, eco-           It remains to be seen which of these trends will match our economic down-
   friendly food is manufactured in ways which economise on energy and never               turn, or our economic recovery. One thing that’s clear, however, is that res-
   lose sight of recycling. Even though it’s considered something of a must,               taurateurs are tying themselves in knots just to entice you and your wallet to
   locally grown food comes high up on the list of trends for 2009. Second                 visit if you happen to go out for the evening once in a blue moon. The risk is
   comes finger food, a trend which is now rather tired. Bite-sized portions of            that in their enthusiasm, hotels and restaurants will forget who they’re aim-
   everything from fillet of beef and truffle risotto to gazpacho are served in            ing at; or, as Kurt Bjorkman puts it in his blog on the Hotel F&B Magazine
   creative ways in shot glasses or on small mirrors. Third and fourth places are          website: We all need to get real about… who our customers are (not who we
   taken by organically produced food and children’s food produced by a                    WANT them to be…). We need to check out egos and make it happen for
   nutrition.                                                                              our owners and investors and GUESTS.




dId YoU KNoW…
… you can now stay at ecolabelled hotels? Apollo, which is starting to offer
travel to Thailand and Egypt, is the first Swedish travel organiser to ecolabel its
                                                                                                                                                     Sundry facts from
                                                                                                                                                     various corners of
                                                                                                                                                     the hotel world

                                                                                           … everything is allowed when it comes to bringing occupancy to your hotel?
                                                                                           A hotel in California, the high-class Rancho Inn in San Diego, is offering its
                                              hotels. This ecoclassification is tak-       rooms for USD 19 a night, as opposed to the previous USD 219, under the
                                              ing place via Travelife, a European          name “Survival Package”. As you can probably tell from the name, this package
                                              consortium of travel agencies work-          is somewhat basic; no lights, no toilet paper, no towels – and not even a bed.
                                              ing to promote more sustainable              That said, though, you can upgrade if you like!
                                              development of tourism.



… liberated tourists can now head for a new nudist hotel in Germany? Hotel                 … you now have the chance to experience a very dif-
Rosengarten is the first hotel of its kind in Germany. When checking in, guests            ferent taxi ride in Helsinki? With just a single phone call
have to leave all their clothes behind and are then encouraged to go around                to Karaoketaxi, you and your mates will be picked up by
naked for their whole stay. Practical, hey? No laundry when you get home!                  a luxury car and your party can get off to a flying start
                                                                                           with a good old sing. The car can accommodate up to
                                                                                           12 people. How about that as an idea for your next staff
                                                                                           get-together?



                                                                                       7
Market information from Pandox




       News from the Pandox sphere

       Quality Hotel Park in Södertälje tops Mystery Guest programme                         High pressure on InterContinental Montreal
       Some hotels are swimming against the tide. We’d like to congratulate                  The InterContinental in Montreal showed enormous consideration for
       Quality Hotel Park in Södertälje City, which is showing positive results              its guests during this summer’s heatwave. On 18 August, the hotel
       in a number of respects. Eskil Eilertsen, Head of Sales and Marketing,                offered its guests a single room price which was the same as the tem-
       says proudly that Quality Hotels are showing the greatest upsurge in                  perature in Fahrenheit (°F) at 4 pm that day. To the great pleasure of
       respect of their market. This hotel has now attained a top ranking in the             many guests, the thermometer showed a temperature of 84.2 Fahren-
       Choice Hotels Mystery Guest programme.                                                heit and so CAD 84.20 was all they had to pay for a room for the night!


                                                            Official athletics at Hotel Berlin, Berlin                       This contract was the first to be signed after
                                                            August saw the transformation of Hotel Berlin,               Pandox bought the hotel in 2006. Hotel Direc-
                                                            Berlin into an all-inclusive hotel during the                tor Cornelia Kausch and her team provided a
                                                            World Championships in Athletics. 1 200 com-                 fantastic service for the athletes – 24 hours a
                                                            petitors from 80 nations stayed at the newly                 day. Well done Hotel Berlin, Berlin!
                                                            renovated hotel – including the team represent-
                                                            ing Germany and double world record holder
                                                            Usain Bolt, who took the gold for both the
                                                            100 m (9.58) and the 200 m (19.19)! 4 200
                                                            meals a day were served, including 600 kg of
                                                            fruit. In addition, guests drank several thousand
                                                            litres of water; and they also used more than
                                                            50 000 towels and over 5 000 toilet rolls.




                                                            Usain Bolt, double world record holder (sprint),
                                                            celebrated his birthday at Hotel Berlin in Berlin.



                                                                                             Children dominated Clarion Hotel
                                                                                             Grand in Östersund this summer
                                                                                             The Kul och Bus Circus Academy
                                                                                             have been working with Clarion Hotel
                                                                                             Grand in Östersund this summer.
                                                                                             Children had their own check-in desk,
                                                                                             lucky bags, children’s menu, play-
                                                                                             room, TV games and face painting.
                                                                                             Some 1500 children and their parents
                                                                                             all helped the hotel to break a record
                                                                                             in July, when coverage stood at an
                                                                                             impressive 93.6% – congratulations!

                                                                                                       Face painting was one of the many
                                                                                                  activities for children on offer at Clarion
                                                                                                  Hotel Grand in Östersund this summer.


       S K O J at Holiday Inn Brussels Airport                                                                                         Jazz at Crowne Plaza Antwerp
       This hotel is the forerunner in a new era of business meetings, offering                                                        Jazz musician Toots Thielemans is
       a very original meeting concept. This is known as S K O J, the Swedish                                                          a regular at the Crowne Plaza in
       word for FUN, which stands for Surprising, K(C)reative, Original and                                                            Antwerp. In August, he won the
       Joy. The S K O J concept can be seen in the design of the meeting                                                               prestigious Concertgebouw Jazz
       rooms, and it’s quite noticeable during lunchbreaks and coffee breaks                                                           Award for 2009, which is a Lifetime
       – and also among the enthusiastic staff at the new Holiday Inn Brussels                                                         Achievement Award for jazz musi-
       Airport .                                                                                                                       cians famous in the international
                                                                                                                                       arena. Earlier winners of this award
                                                                                                                                       include George Coleman, Elvin
                                 “Meet Happy” at Pelican Bay in the Bahamas                                                            Jones, Benny Golson, Chick Corea
                              Pelican Bay has got itself a new logo to go with                                                         and Herbie Hancock.
                               its repositioning initiative. The new logo pro-
                                claims “Meet Happy”, and ties in with the
                                 hotel’s brand promise to create positive experi-
                                 ences for meeting delegates, wedding guests
                                  and all other guests staying at the resort.
                                   “Our new logo, a Happy Pelican donning                                                               Hans Wils, Hotel Director of the Crowne
                                   sunglasses, injects a breath of fresh air,                                                           Plaza in Antwerp, congratulates jazz
                          colour and vibrancy into the property” says Magnus                                                            musician Toots Thielemans, winner of the
            Alnebeck, Hotel Director at Pelican Bay, Lucaya.                                                                            Concertgebouw Jazz Award for 2009.




                                                                                       8

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Pandox Upgrade - No 2 2009 (Eng)

  • 1. PA N D O X M A r K e t I n f OrM At I On f rOM PA ndOx – One Of eu r O Pe’S leAd In G H Otel PrO Perty COMPAn IeS n O . 2 • 200 9 Expect a slow recovery! What’s hot in F&B
  • 2. Market information from Pandox Hote expect a slow recovery! The world is starting to look like a slightly better place now for the hotel industry since the credit crunch first hit. The financial market’s view of our business reflects this. In a report from Goldman Sachs – which downgraded the sector in 2006 and has maintained a negative standpoint ever since – the target price for the hotel industry has been upgraded from Sell to Neutral. Starwood has even been upgraded to Buy. This fundamental analysis is based on volumes stabilising first. Some of the major markets in the USA have started to show a slowdown in the rate of decline and the chances of occupancy evening out towards the end of the year have improved. Moreover, it’s assumed that the amount of new hotel capacity resulting from the credit crunch will be reduced over the next few years. All in all, this means that we could be seeing growth in RevPAR for the USA by the end of 2010. Gradual development The analysis is interesting and the argumentation stringent. It’s also supported by experiences from earlier recoveries. Of course, this opinion is very pleasing; but for the people who believe that their profitability issues will soon be a thing May of the past, there could be a trap awaiting. A normal recovery takes place over a number of stages. Firstly, volumes even out while prices continue to fall. Once Just like living at the zoo?! Lindner the increase in demand is stable, occupancy starts gradually to increase. From this development phase, it normally Park & Resort recently opened its new takes a year before prices start to rise again and RevPAR really starts to pick up. Anyone hoping to see income levels zoo hotel in Hamburg. This is their back at 2008 levels soon is going to be disappointed. My cautious guess is that this will take at least five years from the 32nd hotel and it has 158 rooms and time volumes start to rise. The Goldman Sachs report contains nothing about this. Nor can I find anything about how suites. This hotel is fitted out accord- much of the anticipated demand is to materialise into profitability and increase cash flows. Looking at the current trend, ing to a range of themes, all taken the decline is still continuing. The only market showing a slowdown in the rate of decline is the high-price segment in from the animal kingdom. The scent New York, which is normally early to react to changes in economic climate. of dried grass wafts over the Africa floor. The floor inspired by Asia is So who wins? humid and smells exotic. The spa The first conclusion made by the report is that the world seems, once again, to be surviving. And once economic activity section is inspired by the Arctic. is on the increase again, demand in the hotel industry will rise – as is normal. The other conclusion is that it’ll take a long time for the hotel industry to return to acceptable profitability levels. So where are the winners in this sector? Well, the companies which have mainly management and franchise agree- Rezidor is opening its Park Inn Don- ments have low risk built into their models. They’ll see greater income via their fees when RevPAR rises. But at the caster in May. This hotel, with its 87 same time, the upside is limited. Hotel companies with rental agreements seem to have greater potential; that is, pro- rooms, is in the business district of vided that they have efficient operating models. When the market turns, they’ll have good potential for improvement. the town; and it’s situated within walk- Passive financial owners with no operating expertise of their own risk losing out. These are in the hands of major inter- ing distance of the Keepmoat football national hotel companies which have little incentive to promote the interests of their owners in respect of improved cash stadium. This used to be a Purple flows. This requires emphasis on day-to-day operation with high levels of cost control, handling of special interests such Hotel. as trade unions, and active support being given to local management teams. Often these companies are lacking exper- tise or resources in these fields. Nowadays they prefer to focus on brand care and what are known as brand standards. So what options are available in order to buck the negative profitability trend and protect assets? One model is that CitizenM is opening its second hotel the banks are becoming more active. Maybe we’ll see a new wave of distressed assets in early 2010? in Amsterdam. 215 rooms over a five- storey property located in the Princess Separate ways district between the World Trade One of the companies that has attracted attention is the Four Seasons Hotel, which was recently sued by owners in the Center and the heart of the city. USA. According to what we’ve been told, there have been constant refusals to adapt prices and outgoings to these hard CitizenM – short for “citizen mobile” – times, and so profitability for the owners has been wiped out. According to Four Seasons, the motivation behind this is is aimed at modern individualists; that their brand and standards must never be jeopardised. A spokesman for this luxury brand said in a report that “the anyone from people travelling on busi- owner has to stop running amok, we have more important things to worry about then chasing costs”. This is an example ness to tourists fascinated by culture. of what happens when brand integrity and the interests of the owners go their separate ways, and it shows what can happen when there’s an imbalance between risk and return. It’s not entirely unexpected that companies operating in the luxury segment are finding it hard to adapt and establish a flexible operating model - the people responsible for their Rezidor is establishing itself at the investments are being hit hard! Gare du Midi railway station in So it seems that Goldman Sachs are correct in upgrading the sector. At the same time, there’s a lot of cleaning work Brussels. This hotel will have more to be done in the industry before the whole thing blows over. It may be worth reminding everyone that adjustments in than 140 rooms and aims to welcome the financial markets focus on actual economic changes which will take place a number of years into the future. its first guests in early 2011. this year’s Hotel Market day I’d also like to take this opportunity to welcome partners, clients, banks, advisors, formers of public opinion and media to June our next Hotel Market Day. As defined by tradition, it’ll be taking place at the Hilton Stockholm Slussen, make sure you mark 18 November in your diaries. This year’s main theme will be “Short market trends – what will 2010 be like?” Pandox is buying Vildmarkshotellet in Kolmården from Parks & Resorts All the best, Scandinavia AB. The hotel is situated Anders Nissen outside Norrköping – some 150 km south of Stockholm – at Kolmården, PS. Stefan Lövgren, one of the biggest and best handball pros in the world, has come to the end of his active career. the largest zoo in Scandinavia. The Stefan was thanked for his supreme efforts at a packed arena in Kiel, where he’s been playing for ten years; an out- hotel has 213 rooms, a large confer- standing setting which few Swedes get to experience. As a huge fan of handball, I’d like to thank Stefan for all the top ence facility and a recently completed quality entertainment he’s given us all for more than 15 years as a member of the Swedish team, with four golds at spa. European level and one World Championship gold! Courtyard by Marriott is being launched in Pandox Upgrade – market information from Pandox – published approximately three times a year. Turkey. The first Courtyard, with 262 editorial: Anders Nissen, Annelie Sundström Aguilar, Michaela Borg, Anette Paulsson rooms, is opening at Istanbul’s inter- Pandox AB • Box 5364 • 102 49 Stockholm • Tel.: +46 (0) 8 506 205 50 • Fax: +46 (0) 8 506 205 70 • E-mail: pandox@pandox.com national airport. The hotel is designed Visiting address: Grev Turegatan 44 primarily for European business trav- Graphic design and production: n3 Kommunikation ellers who are looking for all their Photographs: Ulf Blomberg, Shutterstock and others. home comforts and who appreciate Printing: JMS Mediasystem, September 2009. Reproduction only by permission from Pandox. modern design. Cover photo: Shutterstock Upgrade can be ordered from Pandox or read at www.pandox.com 2
  • 3. Market information from Pandox l NeWS The market on the market Low liquidity in the market July The global transaction market nosedived the first six Marriott will be opening a Courtyard months of 2009. This reduction was 78 % lower com- hotel in Romania in 2011. The hotel pared to the first six months of 2008. So its development is will be located in the heart of Bucharest, within walking distance of approaching the level seen in the first six months of 2002, the JW Marriott Hotel Bucharest, and which to date was the lowest over the past decade. How- have 187 rooms. ever, the trend seems to have been bucked slightly in the Kosta Boda Art Hotel will be opening second quarter. its doors for the first time in late June. Rezidor is opening its 50th hotel in Glass artists at Kosta Boda have Germany in July: the Radisson Blu The global transaction volume over the second quarter increased by 3 % com- designed various parts of the hotel. Hof Hotel in Baden Baden. This prop- pared with the first quarter of 2009. This may be an indicator of brighter times The hotel has 104 rooms and suites, erty dates back to 1638 and was origi- ahead, although it’s too early to be too optimistic. The figures for the second all differing in nature. In the centre of nally a Cappuccino order monastery, quarter are the first to have shown an increase since 2007. the hotel is a spa designed by Kjell but it was converted into an hotel in Europe, the Middle East and Africa represent the biggest decline in transac- Engman and Åsa Jungnelius. The the early 19th century. The hotel now tions in absolute figures over the first six months of the year. Sales closed at USD entire hotel acts as an art gallery, and has 139 rooms and seven conference 1.9 billion. This was a decrease of 76 % compared with the first six months of all the art is for sale. and banqueting rooms. 2008. In America, sales for the same period amounted to USD 1.0 billion, a decrease of no less than 86 %. Asia represented the lowest transaction volume, with USD 0.9 billion; equivalent to a decline of 55 % compared with the pre- Rezidor is opening a new Radisson Blu Hilton is opening its second hotel in vious year. in Bad Reichenhall in Germany in late Romania, this time in the town of Of the total number of transactions that took place, only 13 exceeded USD June. This property, which is located in Sibiu. This former spa and resort has 100 million, compared with 34 over the first six months of 2008. This is due a large, exotic park, is an old Grand been renovated and converted into a mainly to the fact that it’s still difficult to attract finance for major deals, particu- Hotel building dating back to 1846. 115-room hotel. larly across national borders. The hotel has 152 rooms and suites. Still lots of pressure Rezidor is opening its second Park However, people in the market believe that transaction volumes will increase Marriott is opening its third Courtyard Inn in Wroclaw, Poland. The hotel will over the second half of 2009, primarily because distressed assets should hotel in Russia. The plan is for the be opening early 2012, in good time appear on the market to a greater extent. At the same time, there are issues talk- Courtyard by Marriott Paveletskaya, before the start of the UEFA Cup ing against this. The RevPAR development for the hotel industry will be under a 13 storeys high, to open in 2010 with tournament in Poland and Ukraine. lot of pressure this autumn, too. This means that potential investors will con- around 170 rooms. The hotel is being The hotel will have 206 rooms. tinue to feel uncertain of the earning ability of the hotel object, and hence of the built in south-east Moscow in one of value of the hotel property. In addition, getting finance will continue to be diffi- the international business districts not cult because of the cutbacks on the capital market. If investors are able to get far from Paveletskaya railway station. First Hotels and Thon Hotels finance at all, it’ll be expensive on account of the lack of access to capital, and are starting a partnership in partly because the risk premium for lending for hotel investments is still high. sales, distribution and mar- Scandic is establishing a presence in keting. This partnership will new hotels in the pipeline Karlskrona, south of Sweden. The get off the ground in January Despite the global downturn, hotels are being developed and built all over the 180-room hotel will be opening in the 2010 and include 46 First world to an extent never seen before. And this is because most investment deci- spring of 2010 and have an architec- Hotels and 53 Thon Hotels. sions were made before the downturn actually hit. In Europe, key markets such ture inspired by the sea. The fittings The partnership will not as Moscow, London and Berlin are reporting the biggest number of rooms under are based on the colour blue, stone, affect ownership. construction. Of the total of 94 695 rooms being built in Europe, 5 127 are in heather and a shape reminiscent of a Moscow, 4 968 are in London and 4 720 are in Berlin. sail. There are currently 463 hotel projects in Africa and the Middle East which Rezidor is opening its seventh Park will result in a total of 124 409 new rooms. There are a few countries dominating Inn in Norway. Park Inn Steinkjer will the market in the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates is responsible for the Choice is buying Nordic Hotels in have 110 rooms and be opening in single biggest amount of new development, with 169 hotels and more than Stockholm but retaining the brand. early 2011. With this, Rezidor will 58 000 rooms, followed by Saudi Arabia with 42 projects in the pipeline. The This since the guests want different have some 6000 rooms in Norway. key markets of Dubai have 33 319 rooms being planned and constructed, Abu products, not standardised hotels that Dhabi has 11 196 and Jeddah has 2 979; and for the most part, luxury hotels all look the same. This purchase will are being built. Asia currently has 227 567 rooms under construction over 969 give Choice a further 542 rooms in Stockholm, making it the biggest August hotels. China and India represent the majority of projects; China with 108 346 rooms and India with 45 323 rooms. Of these, more than 60 % are in the luxury chain in the city. Home Properties is buying the hotel category. Copperhill Mountain Lodge luxury hotel in Åre, ski resort in northern So what about business? InterContinental Hotel Group is open- Sweden. A rental agreement has The US is continuing to dominate the construction market, and as things stand ing its first Crowne Plaza in Portugal. already been signed with Choice at present it has more than 500 000 rooms in production despite the market Hotel Crowne Plaza Vilamoura will be Hotels concerning the running of the plummeting by 24 % compared with June 2008. Budget hotels represent the opening in January 2010. The hotel is hotel. This hotel is some 19 000 sq m greatest reduction, with more than 50 % since June 2008. located right next to the beach and not in area, with over 112 suites with views But the really interesting question is: just how many projects have been far from the famous Casino Vilamoura. over the mountains and Åresjön lake. launched in 2009, and on what business foundations? 3
  • 4. Market information from Pandox Focus on the industry First six months of 2009: Bleak hotel market It’s been a bleak first six months to 2009, with an extensive international downturn which also seems to be protracted. The hotel market in the US had been in recession for 20 months up to last June. The longest recession ever experienced before – in the early 1980s – lasted for 21 months. The question is whether the tide will turn now, or whether we have to slop around on the bottom for a little while longer? uS first in cycle fallen by 6 %, and stand at GBP 122 as at 30 June. Occupancy in London for The American market – which is first in the hotel economic cycle – showed a the first six months of the year closed at 78 %. This is equivalent to a reduction decline in occupancy of minus 11 % for the first six months compared with the of just under 1 % compared with the same period last year, which means that same period for 2008. Occupancy remained at 55 %. The average price for the RevPAR closed at GBP 96. London demonstrated further decline over the sec- same period fell to USD 99, which is equivalent to a reduction of 9 % compared ond quarter. RevPAR fell by 8 % compared with the same period in 2008, which with last year. This means that RevPAR for the entire US fell by 19 % over the was due largely to lower prices. June alone demonstrated better figures as occu- first six months. pancy actually increased by 2 % compared with June 2008. However, room A more detailed analysis of the second quarter shows that RevPAR was down prices are still under pressure, so RevPAR for the month closed at minus 6 %. by almost 20 % compared with the same quarter last year. Prices have fallen by Germany – which saw a high national demand for hotel rooms in the autumn 10 %, while occupancy for the quarter was down 11 %. of 2008 and so fared better – has now joined the general downturn. For the The tendency in some of the major cities in the US is the same – RevPAR is period to 30 June, Berlin closed at 64 % occupancy, which is 4 % lower than for continuing to worsen over the second quarter, but at a slower rate. the same period in 2008. The average price was EUR 82, which was 10 % lower As far as the various segments are concerned, the luxury segment is seeing than in the first six months of 2008. RevPAR in Berlin closed at just under EUR the worst effects, with a 28 % decline in RevPAR for the six-month period, fol- 53 for the six-month period. This is a reduction of 13 % compared with the lowed by the resort segment, which has seen a decline of 22 %. Development is same period in 2008. Berlin’s second quarter in 2009 is continuing to show a the same in all segments irrespective of region. decline. RevPAR has fallen by 21 %, largely due to lower prices. The decline in New York has been affected the most during the downturn, albeit from high price for the quarter is minus 17 %. This pattern is also evident in other major levels. Occupancy has fallen by 11 %, while at the same time prices fell by no cities in Germany, with two-figure reductions in RevPAR. Hamburg is one of few less than 24 % over the first six months of the year. The change in RevPAR com- exceptions that’s fared better to date, with a RevPAR decline of minus 7 % up to pared with the same period last year amounts to minus 32 %. Occupancy 30 June. closed at 73 %, and the average price closed at USD 199. Paris was also trapped by the downward spiral in the spring. Occupancy for Over the second quarter RevPAR fell by 33 % in New York, and this is due the first six months of the year fell by 9 % compared with the same period in mainly to the enormous pressure on prices. In June, the decline worsened still 2008 and closed the six-month period at 72 %. Prices fell by 11 % and now further with RevPAR for the month at minus 35 % compared with June 2008. stand at EUR 215 on average, compared with EUR 242 to 30 June last year. Occupancy fell by 6 % and average prices by 30 %. Given this development, RevPAR for the first six months of the year now stands at EUR 155, representing we maybe should be asking who’ll be wanting to pay to stay in all those new a decline of 19 %. The second quarter of 2009 is showing a continuation in this hotel rooms being built in New York at the moment? It’s estimated that more downturn, and that room prices in particular are what are forcing down RevPAR. than 10 000 new rooms will be opened in 2010. The first six months of the year in Brussels closed at a RevPAR of minus 17 %, due equally to falling occupancy and lower prices. This trend has been europe following the trend underpinned during the second quarter, with RevPAR closing at minus 24 %. Europe is following in the footsteps of the US, and the decline seen in the The major cities in Eastern Europe are reporting even gloomier figures. Riga autumn has accelerated in the spring. Of Europe’s capital cities, London has is one of the cities that has faced the very toughest climate for hotels over the fared best throughout the credit crunch to date. For the first six months of the first six months of 2009. RevPAR has fallen by 40 %, due to lower prices and year, RevPAR has fallen by just under 7 %, and most of this decline is explained reduced occupancy in equal measure. Both Prague and Warsaw have had a away by lower room prices. Averages prices have been under pressure and RevPAR of minus 30 % for the same period. 4
  • 5. Market information from Pandox Risk of further rain showers in the hotel market – make sure you’re kitted out to brave the elements. Vienna has shown one of the more dramatic declines over the second quar- regional cities in Sweden also in decline ter. Average prices are down 38 %, while at the same time occupancy is down The regional cities in Sweden are following the general trend – a decline right 11 %. This means that every hotel room is earning minus 45 % less. Where did the way along the line. Gothenburg’s occupancy for the first six months of 2008 all the cash-rich tourists go? stood at 65 %, which then fell to 58 % over the first six months of 2009. Average prices have been maintained fairly well. This means that the entire RevPAR Scandinavia also struggling decline of 9 % is explained by lower occupancy. Even the Scandinavian countries are struggling in the global landslide. Worst Malmö is the regional city that’s come off best so far. Up to 30 June, RevPAR affected is Copenhagen, which for the first six months of the year lost 12 % in here has fallen by just under 4 %. The entire decline in RevPAR is due to the occupancy, with an average of 57 % for the period. The price has fallen by 8 % fact that occupancy fell from 64 % for the first six months of 2008 to 61 % to to DKK 854, giving a RevPAR for the period of DKK 485. This is a reduction of 30 June 2009. almost 20 % compared with the first six months of 2008. Over the second quar- ter, the rate of decline increased and RevPAR for the quarter stood at minus 23 %. Other Scandinavian capitals are demonstrating similar patterns, i.e. an increase in the rate of decline. Up to 30 June, Helsinki closed with a reduction Explanation: in RevPAR of minus 13 %. Stockholm and Oslo closed at a decline of minus RevPAR: Revenue per available room. YTD: Year to date 12 %. revPAr CHAnGeS In lOCAl CurrenCy World 6 months, % 2nd quarter 2009, % Scandinavia 6 months, % 2nd quarter 2009, % New York –32 –33 Copenhagen –20 –23 London –7 –8 Malmö –4 –6 Dubai –36 –34 Gothenburg –9 –11 New Delhi –42 –38 Oslo –12 –15 Sydney –13 –14 Stockholm –12 –20 Beijing –46 –45 Helsinki –13 –17 Tokyo –10 –11 São Paulo –5 –6 Buenos Aires –19 –25 (Sources: STR Global, SCB, Statistics Norway and Statistics Finland) 5
  • 6. Market information from Pandox Pandox market barometer June 2009 The market barometer indicates the selected cities’ position in the business cycle. The assessment is based on an analysis of each city. Consideration is given to macro-developments, the trends of the hotel industry and business conditions, how the hotel market is evolving, and the extent to which the hotel property market is developing and has liquidity. It is important to note that the hotel business cycle is the same in its pattern but different in time. BrIef deSCrIPtIOn Of tHe VArIOuS PHASeS Of tHe HOtel BuSIneSS CyCle: GrOWtH b Occupancy is rising relatively rapidly and rates have begun to increase. WeAKenInG deClIne c The decline tapers off and RevPAR gradually levels out. High potential and low risk. This phase is characterised by some potential and high risk. PeAK h Occupancy continues to rise and rates increase above inflation. Strong potential leVel Out v Occupancy rises and rates remain unchanged. High potential with a and low risk that gradually increases to high risk. diminishing risk. deClIne x Occupancy and rates decline due to lower demand or excess capacity. This phase is characterised by low potential and high risk. SWedeN PeAK h x deClINe Malmö, Jönköping, Umeå Lund, Helsingborg, Gothenburg, Stockholm, Stockholm 5*, Karlstad, Uppsala, Sundsvall, Luleå GRoWtH b c deCReASING deClINe v leVellING oUt Comments: Sweden Most of the major Swedish towns are in the decline phase of the economic cycle. coverage is more or less in line with the corresponding period last year, which Stockholm 5* is seeing the steepest downward trend. RevPAR development over means that RevPAR is still continuing to increase slightly. a rolling 12-month period to 30 June 2009 stands at minus 12 %, and the entire If we look at a shorter trend – over a rolling 3-month period between April and decline is explained by prices that have been forced down. The major city munic- June – the rate of decline in most towns and cities is increasing. The decline is ipalities of Stockholm and Gothenburg come next, with a RevPAR reduction of greatest in the municipality of Stockholm, with a reduction in RevPAR of 19 % minus 8 % and minus 9 % respectively. Other cities have also passed the peak, for the period compared with the same period in 2008. This is followed by and in most cases both coverage and prices are on the decline. Stockholm 5* on –18 %. Jönköping and Umeå are balancing out, while Luleå is There are, however, some shining examples. Malmö, Jönköping and Umeå demonstrating a RevPAR of plus 5 % for the period, due entirely to rising aver- are three cities that are still peaking over the rolling 12-month period. The age prices. reason for this is that average prices are still rising slightly. At the same time, (Sources: SCB) INteRNAtIoNAl PeAK h x deClINe Helsinki, Oslo, Copenhagen, Berlin, Amsterdam, Brussels, London, Paris, Vienna, Prague GRoWtH b c deCReASING deClINe v leVellING oUt Comments: international All the major cities in Europe are in decline. Looking at developments over a roll- If we look at a shorter trend, over three months – between April and June – the ing 12-month period – on average up to 30 June 2009 – Vienna and Prague are rate of decline is increasing across the board. Vienna and Prague are subject to showing the greatest RevPAR decline of minus 23 % and minus 25 % respec- the most powerful declines here, too, with negative RevPAR for the period of tively. In Vienna, this is due mainly to falling prices. In Prague, on the other –45 % and –34 % respectively compared with the same period in 2008. hand, it’s due to both falling prices and falling coverage in almost equal mea- sure. Paris and Amsterdam aren’t far behind, both showing a decline of 19 % for the period. London has come off best to date, with a decline of 4 % for the (Sources: STR Global, SCB, Statistics Norway and Statistics Finland) 12-month period. * Five star hotel 6
  • 7. Market information from Pandox Trends of our time Not on the menu F&B trends don’t follow the economic cycle. In times when we need to economise, we face some extremely tough demands. It’s not enough for everything to be green and organic; we also have to be able to offer things that don’t actually exist. Every day we hear conversations of whether or not the credit crunch has bot- tomed out. But even if it has, there’s no economic boom just around the cor- ner. The road back to where we used to be will be a tough one, and in the hotel industry prices are key. Even if demand starts to stabilise, people will still be keeping a firm hold on those purse strings. So people are becoming more aware of the economy. At the same time, surveys show that people spend less money on alcohol in a recession. Drink- ing overall might not be reduced, but sales of alcohol in restaurants and bars fall while drinking at home increases. This really doesn’t match up with one of the biggest trends in the restaurant industry for 2009. Alcohol came very high up in the annual survey “What’s hot? Chef’s Survey”, run by the Ameri- can National Restaurant Association. Well – not alcohol per se, but alcohol Mandarin Oriental Tokyo as an ingredient in cooking, and also in the form of specially composed drinks and also organic wines. Secrets on the menu A drink all of your own Other trends that seem familiar are the multifunctional lobby containing The so called signature drinks are really hot in this category. The most everything from a bar and restaurant to somewhere for business travellers to famous is James Bond’s Martini, which has to be served shaken, not stirred. meet. There’s also the more relaxed restaurant environment, with staff who The drink should demonstrate who you are; the description of a Martini as a dress down, rather than up. Interesting and fun news are secrets on the sophisticated, elegant drink suits our action hero. Nowadays, every self- menu and less is more. Secret dishes which you won’t find on the menu and respecting restaurant and hotel – and even bartender – has to have one or signature drinks made to unknown recipes are sneaking into the industry. more signature drinks. 33 % of chefs that where asked, ranked signature “Less is more” is really nothing new, but making something of it is. A small cocktails as the hottest drinks trend for 2009. In second place came what area and a short menu are hot property right now, and big despite their are known as functional cocktails – put together from a health perspective diminutive size. – and third came the matching of food with alcohol. As far as food is concerned, the green, environmentally friendly alterna- Choose wisely tives are no longer a trend – they’re a must! Locally produced, organic, eco- It remains to be seen which of these trends will match our economic down- friendly food is manufactured in ways which economise on energy and never turn, or our economic recovery. One thing that’s clear, however, is that res- lose sight of recycling. Even though it’s considered something of a must, taurateurs are tying themselves in knots just to entice you and your wallet to locally grown food comes high up on the list of trends for 2009. Second visit if you happen to go out for the evening once in a blue moon. The risk is comes finger food, a trend which is now rather tired. Bite-sized portions of that in their enthusiasm, hotels and restaurants will forget who they’re aim- everything from fillet of beef and truffle risotto to gazpacho are served in ing at; or, as Kurt Bjorkman puts it in his blog on the Hotel F&B Magazine creative ways in shot glasses or on small mirrors. Third and fourth places are website: We all need to get real about… who our customers are (not who we taken by organically produced food and children’s food produced by a WANT them to be…). We need to check out egos and make it happen for nutrition. our owners and investors and GUESTS. dId YoU KNoW… … you can now stay at ecolabelled hotels? Apollo, which is starting to offer travel to Thailand and Egypt, is the first Swedish travel organiser to ecolabel its Sundry facts from various corners of the hotel world … everything is allowed when it comes to bringing occupancy to your hotel? A hotel in California, the high-class Rancho Inn in San Diego, is offering its hotels. This ecoclassification is tak- rooms for USD 19 a night, as opposed to the previous USD 219, under the ing place via Travelife, a European name “Survival Package”. As you can probably tell from the name, this package consortium of travel agencies work- is somewhat basic; no lights, no toilet paper, no towels – and not even a bed. ing to promote more sustainable That said, though, you can upgrade if you like! development of tourism. … liberated tourists can now head for a new nudist hotel in Germany? Hotel … you now have the chance to experience a very dif- Rosengarten is the first hotel of its kind in Germany. When checking in, guests ferent taxi ride in Helsinki? With just a single phone call have to leave all their clothes behind and are then encouraged to go around to Karaoketaxi, you and your mates will be picked up by naked for their whole stay. Practical, hey? No laundry when you get home! a luxury car and your party can get off to a flying start with a good old sing. The car can accommodate up to 12 people. How about that as an idea for your next staff get-together? 7
  • 8. Market information from Pandox News from the Pandox sphere Quality Hotel Park in Södertälje tops Mystery Guest programme High pressure on InterContinental Montreal Some hotels are swimming against the tide. We’d like to congratulate The InterContinental in Montreal showed enormous consideration for Quality Hotel Park in Södertälje City, which is showing positive results its guests during this summer’s heatwave. On 18 August, the hotel in a number of respects. Eskil Eilertsen, Head of Sales and Marketing, offered its guests a single room price which was the same as the tem- says proudly that Quality Hotels are showing the greatest upsurge in perature in Fahrenheit (°F) at 4 pm that day. To the great pleasure of respect of their market. This hotel has now attained a top ranking in the many guests, the thermometer showed a temperature of 84.2 Fahren- Choice Hotels Mystery Guest programme. heit and so CAD 84.20 was all they had to pay for a room for the night! Official athletics at Hotel Berlin, Berlin This contract was the first to be signed after August saw the transformation of Hotel Berlin, Pandox bought the hotel in 2006. Hotel Direc- Berlin into an all-inclusive hotel during the tor Cornelia Kausch and her team provided a World Championships in Athletics. 1 200 com- fantastic service for the athletes – 24 hours a petitors from 80 nations stayed at the newly day. Well done Hotel Berlin, Berlin! renovated hotel – including the team represent- ing Germany and double world record holder Usain Bolt, who took the gold for both the 100 m (9.58) and the 200 m (19.19)! 4 200 meals a day were served, including 600 kg of fruit. In addition, guests drank several thousand litres of water; and they also used more than 50 000 towels and over 5 000 toilet rolls. Usain Bolt, double world record holder (sprint), celebrated his birthday at Hotel Berlin in Berlin. Children dominated Clarion Hotel Grand in Östersund this summer The Kul och Bus Circus Academy have been working with Clarion Hotel Grand in Östersund this summer. Children had their own check-in desk, lucky bags, children’s menu, play- room, TV games and face painting. Some 1500 children and their parents all helped the hotel to break a record in July, when coverage stood at an impressive 93.6% – congratulations! Face painting was one of the many activities for children on offer at Clarion Hotel Grand in Östersund this summer. S K O J at Holiday Inn Brussels Airport Jazz at Crowne Plaza Antwerp This hotel is the forerunner in a new era of business meetings, offering Jazz musician Toots Thielemans is a very original meeting concept. This is known as S K O J, the Swedish a regular at the Crowne Plaza in word for FUN, which stands for Surprising, K(C)reative, Original and Antwerp. In August, he won the Joy. The S K O J concept can be seen in the design of the meeting prestigious Concertgebouw Jazz rooms, and it’s quite noticeable during lunchbreaks and coffee breaks Award for 2009, which is a Lifetime – and also among the enthusiastic staff at the new Holiday Inn Brussels Achievement Award for jazz musi- Airport . cians famous in the international arena. Earlier winners of this award include George Coleman, Elvin “Meet Happy” at Pelican Bay in the Bahamas Jones, Benny Golson, Chick Corea Pelican Bay has got itself a new logo to go with and Herbie Hancock. its repositioning initiative. The new logo pro- claims “Meet Happy”, and ties in with the hotel’s brand promise to create positive experi- ences for meeting delegates, wedding guests and all other guests staying at the resort. “Our new logo, a Happy Pelican donning Hans Wils, Hotel Director of the Crowne sunglasses, injects a breath of fresh air, Plaza in Antwerp, congratulates jazz colour and vibrancy into the property” says Magnus musician Toots Thielemans, winner of the Alnebeck, Hotel Director at Pelican Bay, Lucaya. Concertgebouw Jazz Award for 2009. 8