Speaker: Ted Buehner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service (NWS) This session will introduce how the National Weather Service (NWS) partners with the emergency management community throughout the Pacific Northwest, focused on the joint mission of protection of life and property. The material to be covered includes an understanding of NWS operations, products and services, terminology, joint warning message dissemination, Pacific Northwest weather hazards, and all-hazards weather support, all meeting the needs and requirements of the emergency management community 24/7. Ted Buehner, Warning Coordination Meteorologist, National Weather Service (NWS) This session will introduce how the National Weather Service (NWS) partners with the emergency management community throughout the Pacific Northwest, focused on the joint mission of protection of life and property. The material to be covered includes an understanding of NWS operations, products and services, terminology, joint warning message dissemination, Pacific Northwest weather hazards, and all-hazards weather support, all meeting the needs and requirements of the emergency management community 24/7.

2. Partners In Weather
Preparedness
Ted Buehner
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service – Seattle/Tacoma
Serving America Since 1870

3. Outline
• Mission Partnership
• NWS Operations
• The Warning System
• Washington Weather Hazards
• What Does That Mean ?
• How Forecasts / Warnings Are Made ?
• Working Together When the Weather Hits the Fan

4. What Is Your Mission ?
National Weather Service
Mission
(Serving America Since 1870)
Provide Weather, Hydrologic, and
Climate F
Cli t Forecasts and Warnings for
t dW i f
the United States, its Territories,
Adjacent Waters and Ocean Areas,
for the Protection of Life and
Property and Enhancement of the
National Economy.
N ti lE

5. Weather, Flood Warnings
& Forecasts –
Essential for the Nation
* The U.S. Encounters More Severe Weather
Than Any Other Nation
* Advance Forecasts and Warnings of
Severe Weather Save Lives
* 95% of All Presidentially Declared
Disasters are Weather Related
Nature is a hard teacher since she gives the test first,
first
the lesson afterwards. - Vernon Sanders

6. How Does the Pacific NW Rank
Nationally ?

7. National Weather Service
Operations
p

8. Who We Are
Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Team:
Community Weather Experts
Issues all Local Forecasts & Warnings
Builds and Maintains Relationships With Local and
State Governments
Provides Expert Advice
to Emergency
Operations Centers
Solicits Customer
Feedback on Products
and Services
Conducts Community
Awareness and Ed
A d Education P
ti Programs
Trains Volunteer Observers and Storm Spotters

9. How We Do It
The average person only sees the tip of the iceberg
TV
Radio
Internet
Private Weather Companies
NATIONAL
WEATHER 122 Weather Forecast Offices Issue
Local Forecasts & Warnings
SERVICE
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Model Simulations
Climate & Seasonal Outlooks River Forecasts
Aviation Marine Forecasts
A i ti & M i F t Hydropower, Flood warnings
Storm & Tornado Prediction Irrigation, River Navigation
Hurricane Tracks Observations
Radar Network Satellites Weather Balloons Ground-level
Network, Satellites, Balloons, Ground-
observations at airports, Aircraft, Lightning Network, Data Buoys,
Stream Gauge Network, 11,000 Volunteer daily-data collectors,
daily-
Thousands of Volunteer storm spotters

10. NWS Offices
- 122 Field Offices
- 9 National Centers
- 13 River Forecast
Centers

13. Doppler Weather Radar Coverage in Washington
(Below 10 000 feet)
10,000

14. Coastal Radar Status
• Langley Hill
• Construction
Underway
• Will have
dual-pol tech
• Operational
by end of
y
Sept

15. Elevation of the center of the radar beam increases with
distance from the radar (tilt + earth curvature).
For example, the height of the lowest elevation slice (0.5
degree) is about 5,500 ft AGL (above ground level) at 60 nm
(
(nautical miles) from the radar, while at 120 nm the beam
) ,
height is about 15,000 ft AGL.
~ 15,000 ft
~ 5,500 ft Buoy 41
~ 2400 ft
100 mi 60 mi 20 mi

16. What the
Wh t th coastal radar will do:
t l d ill d
• Improve observation of weather systems
• Fine tune wind and precipitation forecasts (zero to 6
hours lead)
• Improve estimates of rainfall
• Help identify snow level
• I
Improve forecasts of short-fused severe weather
f t f h tf d th
• It would, over time, improve understanding of
weather along the coast
th l th t

17. Based on Doppler Weather Radio Coverage

18. National Weather Service Forecast /
Warning P
W i Programs
- Severe Weather - Public Weather
- Aviation Weather - Marine Weather
- Fire Weather - Hydrology
- Public Service Unit - Support Staff

19. NWS All-Hazards
Weather Support
- Tsunami
- Volcanic
- HazMat
- Search and Rescue
- Earthquake
- Dam Break
- Terrorism

20. NWS Customers
• Transportation • Schools
• Construction • Health Care
• Recreation • Mariners
• M di
Media • Milit
Military
• Emergency Officials • Land Management
Officials
• Businesses
• Water Resource
• Utilities Managers
Essentially Everyone!

21. The Weather Warning
Partnership:
P t hi
National
Weather
Service
News M di
N Media
& The
Private Sector Public
Meteorologists
Emergency
Management
In Washington during the 1990s
- Nearly 100 Fatalities,
-H d d I j d
Hundreds Injured,
- Over $1 Billion in Property
Damage

22. The Warning System
- Detection / Warning
- Dissemination
- Response

23. Warning S stem Goal:
System
To maximize the
number of people
who take appropriate
and timely action to
minimize injury,
death, and property
damage due to
hazardous weather
and flooding.

24. NWS Seattle
Media Partners

26. Human Response to Warning
Messages
Messages
• Social Constraints
– Perceived Proximity
– Previous Experience
– Observation
– Warning Confirmation
• Influencing Factors
– Age
– Language
– Time of Day
– Disabilities
– T
Type of Community
fC it
– Pets

27. Human Response to Warning
Messages
Messages
• Inconsistent Warning Information Ever Turned From
– Delay Decision Making One TV or Radio
– Fail To Believe Warnings Station To Another
– Take The Wrong Action
and Heard a
– Take No Action
Different Forecast?
• Desired Public Response
– Receive
– Understand Our Partnership in
– Believe
the Education Effort
– Personalize
– T k Proper Action
Take P A ti
When you’re prepared, you’re not scared !

28. How many tax
dollars does it cost
you,
you for all the
services you get from
the NWS each year?
Every dollar invested in the NWS returns $8 to
E d ll i di h
our Nation s economy !!

29. Pacific NW Weather Hazards
Can You Name
Them ??

30. A Washington Weather Hazards@
Weathe aza ds

31. What Does That Mean ?
Event Driven Prod cts
E ent – Dri en Products
Outlook
Watch
W t h
Warning
Advisory

32. Event – Driven Products
Outlook
O tl k
Outlook (Heads Up!)
Seve e wea e co d o s a e poss b e
Severe weather conditions are possible in a few days.
ew
Consider options !
36-72 hours lead time (long fuse):
High Wind, Flood, Winter Storm
12-48 hours lead time (short-fuse):
Flash Flood, Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado
Flood Thunderstorm

33. Event – Driven Products
Watch W
W t h / Warning / Advisory
i Ad i
Watch (Get Prepared!)
( p )
Severe weather conditions are possible, but not yet
certain. Prepare now!
p
Up to 36 hours lead time (long-fuse):
High Wind Watch, Winter Storm Watch
i h i d h i S h
Up to 12 hours lead time (short-fuse):
(short fuse):
Flash Flood Watch
Up to 6 hours lead time (short-fuse):
Severe Thunderstorm Watch, Tornado Watch

34. Event – Driven Products
Watch W
W t h / Warning / Advisory
i Ad i
Warning (Take Action!)
g( )
Severe weather conditions have begun or are imminent
in your area. Take immediate action !
y
Long-fused warnings:
High Wind Warning, Winter Storm Warning,
i h i d i i S i
Coastal Flood Warning, Flood Warning
Short-fused warnings:
Flash Flood Warning, Tornado Warning,
g, g,
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

35. Event – Driven Products
Watch W
W t h / Warning / Advisory
i Ad i
Advisory
y
Weather conditions are expected to cause significant
inconvenience and may be hazardous. The greatest
hazard is to motorists.
Winter Weather Advisory
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Urban d Small St
U b and S ll Stream Flood Advisory
Fl d Ad i

36. National Weather Service
Weather and Flood Bulletins
Weather/Flood Weather/ Weather/
Flood
Outlook Flood Watch Warning
Time to onset of event (hours)
72 48 24 0
Increasing confidence that event will occur

37. “High Wind” Criteria
* 40 MPH or more Sustained and/or
* Gusts of 58 MPH or greater
Marine Warnings and Advisories
Hurricane Force Storm - 64 knots or greater
Storm Warning - 48 to 63 knots
Gale Warning - 34 to 47 knots
Small Craft Advisory - 21 to 33 knots
(plus heavy coastal swells and rough bars)

38. Winter Weather Criteria
Winter Storm Warning (within 12 hours) Winter Weather
• Can be combined with Ice and/or Strong Winds Advisory
• Lowlands – 4 inches or more 1 to 3 inches
• Mountains – 12 inches or more 6 to 11 inches
Blizzard Warning
• Snow Combined with Strong Winds of 35 MPH or more and
visibility less than 1/4 mile
Avalanche
A l h
• #2 Weather-Related Killer in Washington

39. I-5, Chehalis, Dec 2007

41. Thunderstorms
• Lightning
• Large Hail
g
• Strong Damaging Winds
• Microbursts
• Heavy Rainfall
• Tornados

42. Thunderstorms
• Heavy Rainfall = Flash Floods
• #1 Thunderstorm Killer in U.S.
• M t D th O
Most Deaths Occur at Night and When
t Ni ht d Wh
People Become Trapped in Vehicles

43. Thunderstorms
Lightning
– # 2 Thunderstorm Killer in U.S.
– Washington Averages 1 Death
g g
every 5 Years
– Lightning Safety

44. ‘Severe’ Thunderstorms
Severe
• Large Hail
– 1 inch diameter or greater
– Significant Damage to
Agriculture or Vehicles
• Strong Damaging Winds
– Gusts of 58 MPH or
Greater
– Microbursts (often
(
confused with tornados)
• Note – Does Not Involve
g g
Lightning

45. Thunderstorms
• Tornados
– “A Violently Rotating Column of
y g
Air in Contact with the Ground”
– Key Word is ROTATION
– U.S. Now Averages over 1100 per
Year
–A
Average 65 D h and 1500
Deaths d
Injuries / Year
– What is a Tornado called over the
Water?

50. How Forecasts / Warnings are
Made ?
M d
On the Fence

52. Weather Forecasting:
g
The Process of Inferring Sensible Weather from a Blend of:
* Data Assimilation * Experience
* Understanding * Climatology
* Solutions of the Governing Equations
* Effectively Communicating to the Target Group
Main Tools - Observations and Forecast Computer Models
- Collect Current and Recent Observations
- Compare with Initial Forecast Model Conditions
- Make any Needed Adjustments (Human/Machine Mix)
- Coordinate (Internal, External)
- Compose Forecast / Warning Issue

53. How We Do It
Observe
Products & Services
Process Central Local
Guidance Offices
Respond &
Feedback
IBM SP at Bowie, MD
Computer Center Distribute
Feedback

54. Weather Observation Sources
• Satellite Pictures • Surface Observations
• Upper Air • Weather Radar
• Pilot Reports • Ship / Buoy Reports
• Hydrology • Air Quality
• Fire Weather • WSDOT Pass Reports
• Remote Avalanche • Skywarn Spotters

56. Skywarn Weather Spotters
Reporting C it i
R ti Criteria
• Tornados / Waterspouts / Funnel Clouds
o ados ate spouts u e C ouds
• Hail
• Frequent Lightning Over 280,000
,
Weather Spotters
• Damaging Winds
In the U.S. – All
• Heavy Rainfall Volunteers
• Flooding (of any kind)
• Heavy Snowfall
• Freezing Precipitation
• Poor Visibility Began in Mar 1960

57. Working Together When the
Weather “Hits the Fan”
How Do You Get Your Weather Information Today?

58. Warning Systems –
Passive vs Active
Passive
– The Internet - Television / Cable
– Commercial Radio - Newspaper
Active
– Emergency Managers Weather Information
Network (EMWIN)
( )
– NOAA Weather Radio (NWR)
– Emergency Alert System (
g y y (EAS)
)
– E-Warn
– iNWS, NWSChat
iNWS,

59. NWS Warning Government
Product Agencies
NOAA Port NOAA
Weather
Wire
EMWIN
Internet
Private Associated
Vendors Press ACCESS
NWR / EAS
Media
General Emergency Multiple
Public Mgmt Paths

60. EMWIN
NWS Text/Graphic Products via Satellite and your PC
Fixed or Portable (Hazmat, Search & Rescue)
More Info – http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/emwin/index.htm
Products
• Weather Warnings – Top Priority
• Forecasts / Current Conditions
• Graphics – Radar, Satellite Images and more
• Alarm Any Product You Desire – Site Specific
Transmission
• Vi NOAA GOES Satellite
Via S t llit
• Non-Encrypted Signal – No Recurring Cost

61. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Direct from the NWS 24 hours a day

62. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Latest Area Forecasts and Conditions

63. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Over 1000 Stations Across the Nation

64. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
22 Stations Serving Washington

65. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Has a Warning Alarm Feature

66. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Flood and Weather Warnings as Needed

67. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Key Element in Emergency Alert System (EAS)

68. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
“All-
“All-Hazards” Warning System

69. NOAA Weather Radio
A Life Saver for the Cost of a Pair of Shoes
Receivers Available at Most Radio Electronic Retailers and via
the Internet

70. NOAA
Weather Radio
is Washington’s
g
“All-Hazards”
Warning System
Ocean Shores “AHAB”

72. NWS Messages to EAS
* Tornado Watch or Warning
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch or Warning
* Flash Flood Watch or Warning
* Major Flood Warning
* High Wind Warning
* Winter Storm / Blizzard Warning
* Tsunami Watch or Warning
* Tests – Weekly and Monthly

73. Non -NWS Messages on
g
NOAA Weather Radio
17 Event Codes in all - Examples include:
* Civil Emergency Warning
g y g
* Evacuation Immediate
* Shelter In Place Warning
* Volcano Warning
* 911 Outage
g
* Child Abduction Emergency (AMBER)

74. NWS Seattle AAll-Hazards@ NWR
How does it work?
Local Relay Network
is the key element !

75. NWS Web Sites in the PacNW
Seattle - www.weather.gov/seattle
Portland - www.weather.gov/portland
Spokane - www.weather.gov/spokane
Pendleton – www.weather.gov/pendleton
www weather gov/pendleton
Medford - www.weather.gov/medford
Boise - www.weather.gov/boise
Pocatello - www.weather.gov/pocatello

76. www.weather.gov/
seattle
Nationwide -
weather.gov

77. NWS Seattle Amateur
Radio W k t ti
R di Workstation
• UHF / VHF
– K7MMI Repeater System,
147.20
• Seattle 800 MHz, King,
, g,
Pierce, Snohomish
counties
• State CemNet
• Packet, APRS
• HF
• Skywarn Recognition Day
– First Sat in Dec
• Exercises

78. Look What Everyone Is
y
Talking About
Your National Weather
Service Goes Digital

79. National Digital Forecast Database
• Mosaic forecasts for the entire
country, regional or by state
• National marine and other
products available
• Interactive! Via the web or
download the data files - use
them as needed
• Can be integrated with GIS
mapping

80. IFPS
Interactive Forecast Processing System
• Grid Resolution
– 2.5 km (down to a “neighborhood” scale)
– 1.6 million grid boxes across the lower 48, 40,000 in
g , ,
Washington
• Numerical Weather (Computer Model) Prediction Inputs
– Local forecaster adjustments to grids
• Forecast Grid Elements (all at surface)
– Temps Max/Min Dewpoint RH
Temps, Max/Min, Dewpoint,
– POPS, Precip Amounts, % Sky Cover, Weather
– Snow / Freezing Level, Winds, Wave Heights and more

81. Giving You More Weather Information
via the Internet
The public, emergency
managers and city
planners use
WWW. graphic
products for detailed
 More weather data
forecasts
 Higher resolution
g
forecasts
Different
Commercial weather  Visual displays of
Products for companies & emergency probability
ii
Different managers use grids to
generate tailored
Customers products  User-defined
User-
products create
business
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY.
SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500
FEET. SNOW
opportunities
ACCUMULATION BY LATE
AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 Radio stations & public
INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET.
COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 read text forecasts
TO 40. SOUTHEAST WIND
5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTHWESTEARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70%.

82. All-
All-Hazards
Weather Support
New Carrissa Selendang AYU
1999 2005
- Weather Data
Missoula Derailment
1996
-FForecasts
t Hurricane Katrina
2005
- Incident Mets
- On-Site or from
NWS Seattle
- Exercises

83. Available NWS Services –
On-
On-site Support
Incident Meteorologist (IMET)
– Local Expertise
– Able to work independent of local NWS office
– Provide weather input to response team
Trained
– ICS
– HAZMAT Response
– Media
Resources
– 4X4 response vehicle
– Laptop with portable two-way satellite dish
two-
– Local weather observation equipment

84. Available NWS Services –
Remote Office Support
Available 24/7
A il bl
– Forecasters around the clock
Dedicated Ph
D di t d Phone
– Unlisted
– No voice mail
– Answered 24/7
Spot Forecasts
– Site-specific
Site-

85. Spot Forecasts
p
Your Local NWS
Web Site
Click the
Fire Weather Link
- Wildfire
- HAZMAT
- Search & Rescue

86. Spot Forecasts
p

87. Spot Forecasts
SAR Spots HAZMAT Spots
25 45
40
20
35
30
15
25
20
10
15
10
5
5
0 0
SAR Spots HAZMET Spots

88. HYSPLIT
(Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model)
Single-Particle

89. NWS Fire Weather / All-Hazards
All-
Phone Contacts (Unlisted)
Spot Forecasts
Coordination
Seattle - 206-526-6088
Portland - 503-326-2420
Spokane - 509-244-5031
Pendleton - 541-276-8134

90. NWS Media / Emergency Management
Ph
Phone N
Numbers i W hi t (U li t d)
b in Washington (Unlisted)
Weather /Flood Related Questions
Hazmat Weather Support
Search and R
S h d Rescue W th S
Weather Support
t
Seattle - 206-526-6857 Portland - 503-261-9248
Spokane - 509-244-0537 Pendleton - 541-276-4493

91. Questions ???