Speaker:  Yumei Wang, Geohazards Section Leader, Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries Pacific Northwest‟s disaster is a Cascadia subduction zone mega-earthquake, which would produce minutes of strong ground shaking, coastal subsidence, liquefaction, landslides, and a tsunami. Oregon relies on a single critical energy infrastructure hub that includes co-located f pipelines, petroleum tank farms, river port facilities, and natural gas and electricity transmissi all which are concentrated along the Willamette River in Portland. Because this energy hub is located on highly liquefiable soils and the facilities have severe seismic design deficiencies, Oregon faces a high risk of catastrophic damage to the energy sector. Damage will likely lead inoperable infrastructure, fires, hazardous materials spills, a fuel shortage, un-navigable waterways, upstream and downstream economic effects, and regional recovery lasting for yea The State of Oregon is developing an energy assurance plan with short, medium, and long ran risk management solutions to help improve the reliability of energy sector services.

1. Cascadia Disaster & Oregon’s Energy Assurance Plan
Partners in Emergency Preparedness Conference, April 26, 2011
Yumei W
Y i Wang, D
Deanna H
Henry, J R G
J.R. Gonzalez, Ri k C t I
l Rick Carter, Immanuel R
l Runnels, & R b
l Rebecca Sh
Sherman

2. Talk Outline
 Cascadia vs Japan’s 9.0 & Chile’s 8.8 quakes
 Cascadia: when/where/how big?
 Cascadia: deaths/dollars/downtime
 Oregon Energy Assurance Project (EAP)
 March 2011 EAP Report: Critical Energy Infrastructure
 Findings
 Build Resilience
 Cascadia Resilience Planning (2011 HR 3 passed)

3. Pacific Ring of Fire: Earthquakes
*subduction zones produce biggest quakes
Next slides on Japan incl. info from many sources: ASCE, Miyamoto, media, more
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

4. Japan’s Magnitude 9.0
Earthquake, Tsunami, Nuke
q , ,
Source info:
JGS, JSCE,
PARI, NIED, GSI,
USGS, NOAA,
ASCE,
Miyamoto,
Percher,
P h
Aydan, DOGAMI,
media
Source:
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

5. 6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

6. 6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

7. Rebound ~15 ft to SE & 3 ft down
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

8. Ground Shaking:
Building
Damageg
Source: Aydan
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

9. Embankment Failures
Source: Aydan
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

10. Industries:
KIRIN beer factory
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

11. Tsunami –
can arrive
in 15 i
i ~15 min
& last for
~24 hrs
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

12. Importance of
Lifelines:
Utilities, transportation,
etc ((e.g., Airport,
Ai
Communication,
Electricity)
El i i )
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
Source: Aydan

13. Transportation
Source: Aydan
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

14. Sendai Refinery: may resume Summer 2012
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
Source: Aydan

15. Minami Soma
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

16. Tsunami Terminology
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

17. 2011, 1933, 1896 Tsunami Heights
38 m
(125 ft)
tsunami
run up
http://www.coastal.jp/tsunami2011/
http://outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/sanrikuhikaku.jpg
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

18. Ports Field Survey (PARI)
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

19. Ofunato Port
nearby 23.6 m run-up
run-
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

20. Sendai Airport
5.7 m tsunami ~1 hr later
57
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

21. Domestic Arrivals
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

22. Sendai Seawall
City ~ 1 million
population
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

23. Sendai
disaster
help
h lp
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

24. Sendai
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

25. City of Tagajgo
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

26. Tagajyo
g jy
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

27. Kesennuma
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

28. Minami Sanriku
Rikuzen-
Rikuzen-Takata
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

29. Coastal Communities
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

30. Coastal Communities
(Source: K Mi
(S K. Miyamoto))
Announce 5/10 12:30-2 Capitol
12:30-
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

31. Coastal Communities
(Source: K Mi
(S K. Miyamoto))
Announce 5/10 12:30-2 Capitol
12:30-
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

32. Coastal Communities (Sendai)
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

33. Coastal Communities
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

34. Coastal Communities
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

35. Coastal Communities
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI
(Source: K. Miyamoto)

36. Coastal Communities
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

37. Coastal
Communities

38. Coastal
Communities
C ii

39. Coastal Communities

40. Onogawa
(Oregonian, OSU Harry Yeh)
(Oregonian
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

41. Coastal Communities
Okawa elementary school
Ishinomaki, Miyagi prefecture.
on March 22,
60 of 84 children missing
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10

42.  Source: NOAA
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

43. NOAA warning: Expect Tsunami Surges for Many Hours.
Hours.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10

44. Pacific Ring of Fire: Earthquakes
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

45. Chileg M8.8 vs Cascadia M9 Analog
Geology/Geography/Industry~PNW
gy p y y
Modern w/earlier seismic codes

46. Areas Damage in Japan & Chile
* Future Damage in Oregon *
1. Coastal Areas Hit by Tsunami
eg. Flooded
eg. Fl d d communities, ports, bridges
ii b id
2. Areas of “Weak” Soils
“Weak”
eg.
eg. River crossings: Bridges & pipes
3. Weak Infrastructure
eg.
eg. Older buildings & systems

47. 1. Tsunami

48. 2. Weak Soils
SSA town hall 4/21/10
Coronel fishing port
Yumei Wang, DOGAMI

49. 2. Weak Soils

50. 2. Weak Soils, Energy Sector

51. 2. Weak Soils, broke fuel pipes

52. 3. Weak Infrastructure
bridges route 5
redundancy
d d

53. 3. Weak Infrastructure

54. 3. Weak Infrastructure
Route 5 over-crossing
over-

55. 3. Weak Infrastructure: Santiago Airport
Santiago Airport control tower damage of the four anchor points of the cab structure

56. Take Home Lessons for Oregon
1. Coastal Areas Hit by Tsunami
 Improve Safety in Tsunami Prone Areas
2. Areas of “Weak” Soils
 Critical Infrastructure & Emergency Routes
g y
3. Weak Infrastructure
 Prioritize & Fix using
“risk management”
g

57. Cascadia Earthquakes/Tsunamis:
When, where,
When where how big?
Sloping fault surface
offshore to coast

58. When?
100%, don’t know exactly when…
100%,
• 41 quakes magnitude 8 & larger
• 240 yr average period
r er e
• Jan 26, 1700 (311 yrs ago)
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10 (data modified from Goldfinger et al)

59. Where?
North-South Direction: Could be N. CA to BC
East-West Direction: Offshore to up to 30 west of Portland

60. HOW BIG?
Could be magnitude 8, or could be magnitude 9.2
g , g
Mw Mw 8.5- Mw 8.3- Mw
~9 8.8 8.5 7.6-8.4
500 430 yrs 320 yrs 240 yrs
yrs
(modified from Goldfinger et al. (in press))
 20 full or nearly full length ruptures
 2 to 3 ruptures of ~75% length
f 75% l h
 19 shorter ruptures southern part of margin

61. Cascadia:
Cascadia: Double Whammy!
y
Tsunami: arrives ~15 minutes Hazards/Effects
Waves & surges for many hours
g y  Ground shaking g
 Tsunami (coast)
 Coast Subsidence
 Liquefaction
 Lateral spreading
 Landslides
 Settlement
 Seiches
 Fires
 Hazmat spills
 Infrastructure damage
 Black out Fuel
out,
shortage, etc

62. Geologic Time vs Oregonians
(data from Goldfinger et al)
• Design & build using current knowledge (for future generations)
• Seismic hazards recent info: 1994 Oregon adopts seismic building code
• Outcome—lots of vulnerable infrastructure (schools, energy, bridges, etc)
Outcome—
• >1,200 school buildings over 50 yrs old
.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang,

63. Cascadia Damage: Oregon Estimates
Predictive Model
• > 5,000 deaths
• > 35,000 Buildings
Destroyed
• > 250,000 Buildings
Damaged
• > $36 Billion Direct
Damage

64. Deaths, dollars & downtime
2010 Haiti (220k)
23 per 1,000
2011 Japan (25k/3M)
~8 per 1,000
Oregon Estimates (>5k)
>>3 per 1,000
1 000
World War II (420k in US)
2 per 1,000
2010 Chile (500)
0.2 per 1,000

65. Deaths: Concentrated Fatalities
 Weak buildings that collapse
 E.g., old b i k b ildi
E ld brick buildings
unreinforced masonry URMs
 Historic districts with URMs
 URM schools
 Tsunami flood zones

66. “5.12” 2008 M 7.9 China Quake
85,000 Total Dead
19,000 S d
19 000 Students Died i S h l
Di d in Schools

67. BEFORE
AFTER

68. “5.12” 2008 M 7.9 China Quake
Memorial Town
47 of 212 Occupants Died

69. Tsunami vertical evacuation refuge
Japan Proposed in Oregon
Japan
Built in Thailand
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

70. About Vertical Evacuation
The primary means for Cascadia tsunami
evacuation is to move by foot to inland areas and
y
higher ground. In those areas where evacuation may
take longer than 20 minutes (due to distance or
because of at-risk populations), other tsunami
evacuation options should be explored.
These options may include: creation of new (
Th ti i l d ti f (or
preservation of existing) evacuation routes (paths,
roads, bridges), and tsunami evacuation berms,
structures, & buildings. All these solutions should be
integrated into local tsunami evacuation planning &
education efforts.
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

71. Deaths, dollars & downtime
Japan’s Damage Oregon Estimates
~$306 Billion (US)
$306 Billi >$36 Billion direct
~6% GDP damage
(22% OR GSP)
Chile s
Chile’s Damage Chile’s equivalent damage
q g
$30 Billion (US) in Oregon = $70 B
18% GDP (
(42% OR GSP) )

72. Deaths, dollars & downtime
Critical Energy Infrastructure (CEI)
Critical Transportation Infrastructure (CTI)
p f ( )
 OR’s economy relies on energy & transportation
 Energy: liquid fuel, electricity, natural gas
 Electricity underpins all sectors
y p
 89% Gas: transportation (62%) & energy (27%)
 Expect: Transportation mobility problems, fuel
problems
shortage, electrical black-out…
 Also,
Also interdependencies & cascading issues

73. SOCIETAL
DEPENDENCE
PORTS
HIGHWAYS
A S
ENERGY
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6-14-10

74. Deaths, dollars & downtime
 Portland multi-modal transportation corridor
 Union Pacific & BNSF rail yards (rail)
 Port of Portland & other ports (marine)
 Interstate 5, I-205 & I-84 (highways)
 PDX (air)
 Oregon’s fuel supply hub on liquefiable soils

75. Vulnerable
Bridges

76. Energy Assurance Project (EAP)
Oregon Dept of Energy, Oregon Public Utility
Commission, & DOGAMI. US DOE funding.
INITIAL FINDINGS (Mar. 2011 EAP report)
 Energy Sector: fuel, electricity, natural gas at high risk
gy , y, g g
 Widespread seismic vulnerabilities: severe impact
 F iliti s range >100 yrs old t m d rn codes
Facilities r n rs ld to modern d s
 Oregon’s Fuel Supply Hub: high seismic risk
 Damage likely: facilities & river crossings for both
transmission pipelines & towers
 Long-
Long-term rebuilding of Critical Energy Infrastructure
http://www.oregon.gov/ENERGY/publications.shtml EAP Project

77. LIQUID FUEL 100% imported
Natural Gas 100% imported
Many El tri l Operators
M n Electrical Op r t r
 Energy demand increase
of 45% next 20 yrs (PGE)
EAP Project

78. Critical Energy Infrastructure:
Oregon’s fuel supply on weak soils
O ’ f l l k il

79. Fuel Oil Terminals
Vulnerable Facilities

80. Electrical Transmission
BPA estimates
up to 25 Ft
movement
towards river
Chile’s Damage

81. Chile’s Damage Build Resilience
to Improve Safety
Japan’s Damage Oregon
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI,

82. Build Resilience to Improve Safety
Chile’s Damage
Japan’s
J ’
Damage
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
Oregon Fuel Terminals

83. Build Resilience: emergency response
Chile damage
2010 Oregon Seismic Grant Projects
Kfall Fire, St Helens Police, OHSU hospital
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

84. Rep. Deb Boone’s
House Resolution 3
adopted 4/18/11
Cascadia
Resilience Plan
by Feb. 2013
6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10
DRAFT EAP Project

85. 6/1/2011Yumei Wang, DOGAMI, 6/14/10

86. Summary Points
 Cascadia earthquakes & tsunamis
 Damage: tsunamis, weak soils & infrastructure
 Priority: Schools & Emergency Facilities
y g y
 Critical Transportation & Energy Infrastructure
 Build Resilience

87. Pre- 1995 Schools & Emergency Facilities
 Public voted (2002) for safe schools & EFs
 1,361 high-to-very high risk (2007 DOGAMI report)
 649 schools (collapse-prone) with 300,000 students
 Only 15 schools rec’d seismic retrofit grants…

88. Energy Assurance Project
Focus Area
 Hub Critical Energy
Infrastructure (CEI)
 Intersection of:
 Petroleum
 Natural Gas
 Electric
 High liquefaction
zone