Presentation on the basics of the origin and results of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine

1. By Owen Henderson
INTS Online 2130
ONGOING CONFLICT IN EASTERN
UKRAINE

2. ORIGIN OF THE CONFLICT
• Soviet politicians attempted to Russ-ify the satellite states
therefore they forced emigration of ethnic Russians to Ukraine
• They focused this emigration in the industrial east for its
important economic significance
• Furthermore the history of Russian and Ukraine are intertwined
as evident by the period known as Kievian Rus which both
Russians and Ukrainians share as a common history
• This resulted in a mixed population of both ethnic Ukrainians
and Russians or a blend of the two and Russia being
economically invested in natural gas pipelines through Ukraine

3. UKRAINE: DIVIDED EAST VS WEST
• Divided into more Russian East and more Ukrainian West
• Russian speakers
dominate the East
• More Russian
politically leaning
East supported
former President

4. POLITICAL UPHEAVAL
• The divide most recently began with the contentious election of
former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych over Prime Minister
Yulia Tymoshenko as President in 2010 as illustrated here

5. POLITICAL UPHEAVAL CONT.
• Moreover the Yanukovych Regime, initially seemed to be
promoting Pro-West movement, went back on a proposed trade
and political agreement with the European Union to instead
strengthen ties with Russia in November 2013
• This cause mass protests and demonstrations in Kiev and other
western cities while polarizing the East-West division because
the east supported Yanukovych

6. POLITICAL UPHEAVAL CONT.
• The protests culminated into what is know known as the Maidan
(Independence) Square Protest or “Victory” which saw both 75+
deaths and 100+ wounded and the overthrow of Yanukovych and
his political, who then fled or were captured fleeing the country
• During this ‘revolution’ the region of Crimea, home to a Russian
Naval Base and large ethnic Russian populations, was annexed
by force and became de-facto part of Russia
• Then after the vacated government positions were filled and the
government stabilized elections were held and Petro Poroshenko
won a strong majority in May 2014

7. STRENGTHENING DIVISIONS
• West: Elected pro-West President
and went ahead with EU trade
agreement
• Denounced the annexation of
Crimea and ‘supposed’
referendum to legalize the
annexation
• East: Leans heavily on Russia
politically and economically as
well as partially culturally
• Supported annexation of Crimea
and praised it as a victory as well
as significant support for
independence and closer ties with
Russia

8. DISAGREEMENTS GO ‘HOT’
• Following these events in Kiev and Crimea separatist
movements, independent or created by Russia, became
militarized with likely aid from Russia and began to engage
government forces for control of two regions: Donetsk and
Luhansk
• This has spiraled into a longstanding armed conflict that has
caused the deaths of 6000+ combatants and over 1.1 million
displaced (potentially 750000+ fled to Russia)

9. CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION
• Two self declared states: Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk
People’s Republic are operating de-facto as governments in their
respective regions or “oblasts”
• Militias are supporting the two states and are current combating
Ukrainian regular military forces and militias
• Unofficially a confederation has been formed, Novorossiya, with
two independent bureaucracies but a unified military front and
an unified parliament
• Although this hasn’t been confirmed and is currently disputed

10. LIVE UKRAINE CONFLICT MAP
• http://liveuamap.com/

11. RUSSIAN’S INVOLVEMENT
• It is commonly accepted that Russia has supplied arms and supplies
to both of the militias or separatist terrorist groups
• In addition there is strong evidence that Russia is providing aid and
government assistance in addition to what Western foreign aid is
reaching the civilian populations in affected areas
• However most controversially there is significant evidence that
Russian ‘volunteer troops’ are fighting in the regions and that
potentially even special forces have trained the ‘terrorists’ or
militiamen of both self proclaimed republics
• However these facts have all been disputed by Russian authorities at
different times

12. IMPACTS OF CONFLICT
• International political pressure has led the United States and the
European Union to spearhead economic sanctions and various
other political measures to attempt to change Russia’s position
on supporting this conflict
• Despite these having had significant economic impact, the
results on the political policy of the Putin regime have been
limited, potentially even negative

13. FAILED CEASEFIRES AND ESCALATION
• A ceasefire authored between Russia, Donetsk PR, Luhansk PR,
and Ukraine in September 2014 at a talk in Minsk, Belarus fell
through almost immediately and completely disintegrated by
Jan. 2015
• A subsequent agreement between Russia, France, Germany, and
Ukraine was reached in February 2015, also in Minsk, and a only
nominal ceasefire has been maintained with fighting in one
contested city and near constant exchanges of fire from both
sides

14. AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT AND YOU
• The American government has been staunchly against this conflict
from the beginning and has been the forerunner in sanctions and
political pressure against Russia
• Following the February peace talks the US Congress has approved
Non-lethal aid AND Lethal military aid to Ukraine to combat ‘Russian
aggression’
• This could potentially spark escalating levels of involvement from
both Russia and the US thus instigating levels of hostility not seen
since the Cold War

15. AMERICAN INVOLVEMENT AND YOU CONT.
• In addition US Army Airborne troops have been deployed to
conduct training missions with Ukrainian National Guardsmen
• The plan could involve sending more troops over time, thus
furthering the chances of escalation

16. COULD WE BE IGNORING FACTS
• However take Northern Cyprus for example: it’s a part of a sovereign
nation that is occupied by a hostile separatist movement directly
supported by a foreign nation
• Turkey maintains troops in this area, a sovereign country a part of the
EU, and the ‘territory’ of Northern Cyprus is not recognized by any
countries besides Turkey
• This situation mirrors the one in Eastern Ukraine and yet the US
continues to maintain diplomatic and strategic ties with Turkey, a
known human rights violator

17. EASTERN UKRAINE: IS IT OUR BUSINESS?
• The parallel with Northern Cyprus creates a paradox, how can
we have relations with Turkey and yet active combat Russia, who
is acting in the same manner?
• It seems that rather the legality or morality of the situation the
true intention of opposing the separatist movements in Eastern
Ukraine is strategic and political with no real regard for the
territorial integrity of Ukraine, but more importantly the
regional power that Russia is demonstrating

18. UNINTENDED CONSQUENCES
• This situation is also polarizing Russian opinions of the Western
world and the US and creating a form of isolation not seen since
the Cold War
• This makes a dialogue with Russia and its people harder and
creates a rhetoric of Western hate that will be hard to overcome
• After all the economic sanctions are hurting the common citizen
the most and although they affect the wealthy, the common
person has to face increased food prices, financial instability, and
loss of opportunities and jobs

19. FINALLY WHO IS RIGHT?
• The vast majority of people support the territorial integrity and
rights of Ukraine and this position is easy to support when
simplified as such
• However the issue is far more complex than the letter of the law,
many people in these regions do support independence or
stronger ties with Russia
• It is easy to condemn Russia’s actions and supposed actions,
however it is more important to understand them and their
causes and implications

20. FORM YOUR OWN OPINION
• It is important for any citizen to be well informed and form their
opinions on politics based on research from many sources
• Also understanding the long term effects of decisions AND the
short term benefits is important for maintaining global peace
and prosperity
• Form your own opinion on who is right and express it with your
peers, learn, discuss, and adapt that opinion so that you can
decide whether or not to support politicians and their platforms

21. VIDEO RESOURCES
• https://news.vice.com/show/russian-roulette - A series with in
depth coverage of on the ground occurrences by Vice News
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2nklduvThs – John Green
explains the conflict better than I
• Recent:
• http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-06-15/eastern-
ukraine-conflict-has-no-winner-poroshenko - Straight from the
horse’s mouth; Pres. Poroshenko talks of escalating hostilities
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zssIFN2mso – More from Vice
News on the Russian soldiers in Ukraine “Selfie Soldiers”

22. WORKS CITED
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_revolution#Backgrou
nd
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Cyprus
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
• http://www.summer.harvard.edu/blog-news-events/conflict-
ukraine-historical-perspective
• http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/02/world/ukraine-divided/
• http://one-europe.info/ukraine-crisis-for-dummies-part-one
• http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/20/europe/ukraine-conflict/